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Bacon & Eggheads BreakfastPetit-déjeuner avec des têtes à Papineau
Gordon McBean Western University
Reducing Risks, Gaining Benefits – Coping with Weird Weather in a Changing Climate
Réduire les risques et obtenir des avantages : s’adapter à la météo incertaine dans le contexte
des changements climatiquess
Professor Gordon McBeanC.M., O.Ont, Ph.D., FRSC
Chair, Canadian Climate Forum
Centre for Environment and SustainabilityInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Western UniversityPresident-elect
International Council for Sceince
A Changing Climate
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 4
CLIMATE IS THE “STATISTICS OF WEATHER” AND THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
0.13
0.18
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 5
IPCC (2007) - Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of
the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface
temperature (since 1850).
The World Meteorological Organization (2011): “2010 ranked as the warmest year on record, together with 2005 and
1998”. “The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year
period since the beginning of instrumental climate records.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 6
Weather-climate related disasters in Canada (1900-2011)
* Only two years of decade
Nu
mb
er
10 Year Period
Severe storms
Floods
Wildfire
Projections for the future climate and “weird” weather.
“Weird” is unusual and the opposite of “normal”. In climate we define “normal” in terms of 30-y (or at least decadal) means and statistics.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 8
0.130.18
0.2+SCIENCE
UNCERTAINTY
WARMINGOC PER DECADE
PROJECTED WARMING IN THE FUTUREFUTURE
GROWTH OF 3-5°
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 9
WINTER SUMMER
4.5°C
3.5°C
3.5°C
Focus on 2050SEASONAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
(relative to 1961–1990)
Canada will warm more than global average warming + 1.5C by 2050
Much warmer winters and warmer summers by 2050.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 10
WINTER SUMMER
More precipitation inwinters by 2050.
More rain and less snow.
Summers– variable change.
30%
10%
<10%
SEASONAL CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION BY 2050(relative to 1961–1990)
Hot weather and reduced rain –
desertification risk
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 11
% CHANGES IN PROJECTED SNOW DEPTH (MARCH 2050)
UP TO 100% REDUCTIONS ACROSS MID-LATITUDES
Weird Weather in a Changing Climate and its Costs
Weird (unusual) Weather will become the new “normal”.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 13
CANADIANS AND PEOPLE AROUND THE GLOBE WILL NEED TO
“ADAPT”:
“making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate, in order to moderate harm or take advantage of new
opportunities.” REDUCING RISKS, GAINING BENEFITS – COPING WITH WEIRD
WEATHER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
WEIRD WEATHER – HOW TO ADAPT?
14
Human Health in a Changing Climate:A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and
Adaptive Capacity (2008)• “Climate change is expected to
increase risk to the health of Canadians through many pathways: they food they eat, the air they breathe, the water they drink, and their exposure to extreme weather events and infectious diseases found in nature.”
• “Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”– Lancet and UCL, 2009
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 15
Projected
Observed
*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
8 22 37 68
IN EUROPE: RECORD SETTING AUGUST 2003
(MORE THAN 70,000 DEATHS) WILL BEEVERY SECOND SUMMER BY MID-CENTURY
NUMBER OF HOT DAYS* PER YEAR
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 16
The 8 day heat event in 2009 in the Vancouver and Lower Fraser
area caused 134 deaths
A 1990’s 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-3-5 (Year) event by
2050.4-6 TIMES AS MANY HOT DAYS.
By 2050, for every 100,000 people, 6-8 additional deaths and about $500,000 costs– across southern
Canada.NRTEE – 2011: Paying the Price: The Economic Costs of
Climate Change for Canada
Extreme EventsMORE HOT DAYS
Heat warnings - WaterGreen space and shade
Design of structuresAttention to elderly and handicapped
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 17
Extreme EventsFREEZING RAIN
Extreme events - the unborn and children :
“Children whose mother experienced high stress (during the Quebec 1998 ice storm) scored lower on IQ
and language performance tests than those whose mothers had less stress.”
Eastern Canada Ice Storm 199830+ deaths $5 b + damages
Months of impact
Freezing rain events by 2050Ottawa –Montreal-Quebec City: 50%
INCREASE in the number of freezing rain events of more than 4 hours. Close to 80%
increase of events of more than 6 hours.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 18
Extreme EventsSUMMER STORMS Toronto Rain/Wind Event 2005
$624 m insured lossesCalgary Rain/Wind – 2010 – $1B
Calgary Rain/Wind – 2009 – $362 mSW Ontario Rain/Wind –2009 – $482 m
Calgary Hail – 1991 – $885 m
By 2050, a 1990’s 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily
precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 year
event.ABOUT TWICE AS MANY HEAVY
SUMMER STORMS.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 19
TornadoesGoderich tornado – 2011
GTA (Vaughan) tornado – 2009Pine Lake - 2000
Edmonton tornado – 1987
Extreme EventsSUMMER STORMS –
TORNADOESWith more heavy
precipitation and hot days --
Increased risk of tornadoes
COPING WITH WEIRD WEATHER• Improved observations
and predictions• Better structural design of
homes and property.• Insurance Research
Laboratory for Better Homes
• Wind Engineering, Energy and Environment Dome
Meteorological ServiceEnvironment Canada
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 21
FloodingAlberta – 2005 – $327 m
Saguenay – 1996 – $271 mWinnipeg – 1993 – $252 m
Extreme EventsFLOODING
By 2050, with about twice as many heavy precipitation
events, more floods are projected.
Flood warningsDykes, water controlLand-use planning
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 22
The 1999-2004 Drought
In 2001 and 2002 drought years:• $5.8 billion in lost GDP• 41,000+ jobs lost • 5 times as many forest fires in Alberta • Blowing dust - contributing factor in two fatalities
Consul, SK1999-2004 Prairie Drought - prelude of future
droughts. Reduce vulnerability -
early warning and more lead time for adaptations.
2002
0-20% of expected yield for spring wheat, barley,
canola, and field peas
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 23
MORE THAN 50% INCREASE
By 2030
Extreme EventsWILDFIRES
Slave Lake Fire 2011$700 m insured losses
Kelowna – 2003 – $227 m
Fire proofingLand-use planning
Fire control - warnings
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 24
Climate Change and Its Impact on Horticulture in Ontario
Climate Change/Dealing with Adverse Weather
Apple Crop in Ontario2012 – 80% lost
•Better predictions•Adaptations•Crop selection
BIOTRON
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 25
ATLANTIC CANADASea Level Rise – and Hurricanes with Stronger Winds
Storm WarningsCoastal DefencesStructural and
Community Preparedness
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 26
Sea Level Rise Adaptation PrimerA toolkit to build adaptive capacity on Canada’s south coasts - January
2013SEA LEVEL RISE- Impacting all our coasts
Current Impacts and ResponsesGreater Vancouver – sea level rise•1m of SLR would cause an about $12B in damages to City of Vancouver alone.•Much of Vancouver’s infrastructure was built to historical standards and will require significant reinforcement.•In 2011, BCMoE issued guidelines specifying that coastal infrastructure should be designed to withstand 1.2m over 100 years (=3.3m with storm surge and king tide conditions); 2m over 200 years.
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 28
Cold winters are needed in order to build roads over otherwise impassable lakes and muskeg.
IN THE NORTH
Most years the Tibbitt to Contwoyto winter road is open 70 days, but the warm winter of 2005-06 meant only 50 days of use thanks to a late start and early closure. Only 6,841 loads out of
the planned 9,000 loads made it by truck into the Diavik Diamond Mine, which then had to spend tens of millions of
dollars flying in 13,000 tonnes of dry cargo and 11,000 tonnes of fuel.
WITH THE WARMER CLIMATE, THIS WILL BE A MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM
Climate Change – as a national security issue
Arctic Sovereignty• Northwest Passage• Continental Shelf
Extension• Exploration and
exploitation of Arctic resources
Integrated Environmental Prediction – on all times scales
Informing decision making for coping with the weather in a changing climate
UK Met Office
Agriculture: Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks;
this informs crop choice and planting date to optimise yields and minimise crop
failure risk.
Disaster Risk Reduction: Predicting hazardous
weather conditions and disseminating tailored and timely warnings to reduce the impact on vulnerable
communities.
Food security: Monthly to decadal predictions to warn local, national and international communities of expected drought conditions.
Water Resources: Applying regional scale
climate model predictions to inform
climate change adaptation decisions.
Coastal Cities at Risk - Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate
Change in Coastal Megacities
Vancouver, Bangkok, Manila, LagosPartnering with Shanghai and others
2011-2016
Better planned and safer cities and reduced socio-economic impacts as the climate changes.
Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our country partners
TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 32
SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION
• Canada’s climate is changing and these weather trends are already affecting Canadians;
• Severe weather is projected to increase over the next 40 years and beyond;
• Information about weather and climate on times scales from now to next decades will allow public and private sector leaders to reduce risks and gain benefits;
• Science, engineering and technology provide solutions.
The End
Thank you for your attention
Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes