Supply and Demand Analysis - eesc.europa.eu · Supply & Demand Analysis 4 Trans-Tools Modelling...

creative minds safe hands

Technical, Socio-economic and Supply/Demand study regarding the transport of the FERRMED Great Rail Network (Scandinavia-Rhine-Rhône-Western Mediterranean)

Supply and Demand AnalysisPresented by Daniele Maroni - SENER

Consortium

www.wyg.com

Consortium

Supply & Demand Analysis2

Content

1. Scope of the S&D analysis

2. Simulation model (2005)

3. Future Scenarios

4. Forecasting (2020 and 2025)

5. Conclusions of the S&D analysis

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Consortium


Framework

FERRM

ED G

lobal S

tudy

Supply/Demand

Data Collection

Technical

CBAEnvironmental

AdministrativeLegal

SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS

• FERRMED transport planning model building (base year 2005)

• Definition of 14 future scenarios (2020-2025)

• Simulation and traffic forecasting


Consortium


Trans-Tools Modelling Platform

• Developed under EU funding

• Originally for evaluation of TEN-T projects

• Models passenger and freight transport across Europe

• Database (2000)

• transport variables

• socioeconomic variables

• networks

• services

• Largest European transport model

4 step transport planning model(macroscopic)

Trans-Tools provides a simulation tool for strategic analysis


Consortium


0

Zoning System

• Passenger zoning system: NUTS III ~ 1,290 zones

• Freight zoning system: NUTS II ~ 295 zones

Passengers Freight


Consortium


Transport Networks (I)


� Roads

� Motorways

� Dual carriageways

� Regular roads

� Urban arterials

� Ferries

Consortium

Supply & Demand Analysis7SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

� Railways (freight)

� Mixed lines

� Dedicated lines

Transport Networks (II)

Consortium


� Railways (passenger)

� High speed lines

� Conventional lines

Transport Networks (III)

Consortium


� Air

� Freight

maritime

transport

� Inland Waterways (IWW)

Transport Networks (IV)

Consortium


Methodology

• Trans-Tools base year is 2000

• Transport costs updated to 2005 values

• FERRMED Study calibrated model against 2005 data

• External models built

• Trans-Tools limitations

• Study requirements


Calibration

TransTools Model

Results

Passenger

Demand

Supply

Network

Data Collection

Freight Demand

Traffic Calculations

TransTools O/D Matrix

2000 by NSTR

Growth: Pop,

GDP,

Production,

Consumption

TransTools Freight Growth

Model

TransTools O/D Matrix

2005 by NSTR

EUROSTAT Data 2005Furness Algorhytm by

NSTR

FERRMED Freight O/D

Matrix 2005 by NSTR

Growth: Pop, GDP,

Employment, Car

ownership, travel costs

TransTools Passenger Growth

Model

TransTools O/D Matrix 2005

by

trip Purpose

TransTools Supply and

Network 2000

Update by

Country

TransTools Supply and

Network 2005

Freight Logistic

Model

Passenger Modal

SplitAssignment

Car/day on Road Links

Pax/day on rail links

Pax/day on air links

O/D Matrix 2005 by

NSTR and Mode

Road

Rail

IWW

SSS

O/D Matrix 2005 by

Mode and trip purpose

Road

Rail

Air

Freight

Modal

Split

Data Collection

Assignment Maps Road, Rail, IWW

Bottlenecks Maps

Conversion to # Trains:

Container

Single Wagon

Block

Rolling Motorway

Conversion to # Trains:

Intercity

High Speed

Commuters

NO NO

NO

OUTPUT

NO

OUTPUT

Final Calibration:Comparison with real traffic at link level for road, rail and IWW(main corridors and border crossings)

Satisfactory?

Traffic on road, rail and IWW links

YES

NO

NO

Conversion to IWW vessels

NO

NO

CBA

vehicles-km

speed

TECHNICAL

vehicle/day

ENVIRONMENT

vehicles-km

YES

YES

Freight Supply

Results

Final Calibration

NO

Pax

Trucks/day on Road Links

Ton/day on rail links

Ton/day on IWW by CEMT type

NO

TransTools Model

OUTPUT

Conversions

Intra Red Banana and

export to EU-25

Demand Model

Intra Country

Demand model

Ports Model

Consortium


External models for freight demand

1. Intra Red Banana and export to EU 25

2. Internal Demand for Red Banana Countries

• At country level

• 4 production sectors

• Industry

• Agriculture

• Construction

• Energy

• Eurostat data


3. Port Flow Distribution Model

1 2

3

Consortium


Port Flow Distribution Model

• 45 major European ports included

• 55% total European ports freight traffic

• 75% of intercontinental freight traffic in Europe

• Maritime and inland networks

• 4 models built in TransCAD

• containers

• Ro-Ro

• general cargo

• dry bulk


Consortium


Traffic Assignment: Road

Total Observed and Modelled Traffic (AADT) on Red Banana Roads (Motorways, Dual Carriageways)

base year 2005 (41)

y = 0,87x + 7600R2 = 0,82

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000

Observed Traffic (PCU)

Mo

del

ed T

raff

ic (

PC

U)

Note

• Local traffic has been taken into account on the basis of Eurostat data

• Satisfactory calibration achieved for each country


2005 Road Traffic Calibration

y = 0.87x + 7600

R2 = 0.82

Consortium


Traffic Assignment: Rail

• Output in tonnes/day (freight) and pax/day (passengers) converted to traffic (trains/day)

• Model calibrated against observed rail traffic data for main lines

• Local traffic considered separately using different occupancy and loading factors

• Traffic split by train type

• Passenger: high speed, intercity, commuter

• Freight: block, wagon and container


y = 0,86x + 5,64R2 = 0,88

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Observed

Cal

cula

ted

y = 0.86x + 5.6

R2 = 0.88

2005 Rail Freight Traffic Calibration

Modelled

Observed

y = 0,94x + 6,26R2 = 0,95

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Observed

Cal

cula

ted

2005 Rail Passenger Traffic Calibration

y = 0.94x + 6.3

R2 = 0.95

Modelled

Observed

Consortium


Freight Modal Split


Freight Modal Split (2005)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU25 Red Banana

Road Rail IWW Sea

(Measured in tonnes-km)

Inland Freight Modal Split (2005)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU25 Red Banana

Road Rail IWW

Consortium


Passenger Modal Split

(Measured in passenger - km)

Passenger Modal Split (2005)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU25 Red Banana

Road Rail Air

Consortium


� Road Total (veh/day)

Year 2005 Traffic (I)

Consortium


� Road Freight (HGV/day)

Year 2005 Traffic (II)

Consortium


� Rail Freight (trains/day)

Year 2005 Traffic (III)

Consortium


� Rail Passenger (trains/day)

Year 2005 Traffic (IV)

Consortium


ReferenceMedium FERRMED

Full FERRMED

2005 √ - -

2020 √ √ -

2025 √ √ √


√√

--

--

FERRMED Objective achieved

Southern ports

enhancement 27% to 35%

Scenarios

Consortium


Supply / Demand Scenario Building


Reference Scenarios

1st Model run

Traffic

Traffic

Supply

Validation

Solutions

Traffic

2nd Model run Supply

Traffic

BottlenecksFERRMED Scenarios

FERRMED Standards

Modelling

Solutions2nd Model run Supply

Bottlenecks

CBA

FERRMED Standards

Costs IRR

Traffic

Traffic Costs IRR

Traffic

Costs

1st Model run Traffic Traffic

Consortium


Inland Demand Forecasting


Growth Rates Forecasting for Inland Freight Demand(Intra-Country + Intra Red Banana and Export to EU-25 models)

Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1. Intra Red Banana - export to EU25 2. Intra-Country TOT Inland

Growth Rate Forecasting for Main Socioeconomic VariablesEU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

GDP (2005 constant price) Population

Growth Rate Forecasting for Production by sector and Consumption

EU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Consumption Total Production Construction

Industry Agriculture Energy

Consortium


Maritime Demand Forecasting

106%Ro-Ro

2005 - 2025 RefGrowth Factor

Containers 262%

Dry Bulk 41%

General Cargo 24%

Total 118%

• Inputs

• GDP

• Port expansion plans

• Exports / imports

• OECD industrial performance


Growth Rate Forecasting for GDPEU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

GDP (2005 constant price)

73%27%2025 Reference

76%24%2005 Base year

Other European ports

Med. PortsScenario

Share between Mediterranean Ports and Others

Consortium


Reference Scenario Network


• Planned and committed projects at 3 levels

• European

• National

• Regional

• New and upgraded infrastructure

• Rail Freight (127 projects)

• Rail Passenger (140 projects)

• Road (209 projects)

• Inland waterways (11 projects)

• Terminals

Rail Freight Network (2025 Reference Scenario)

Consortium


Reference Scenario Policies (I)

Policy ActionScenario year

Modelling

Freight intermodality and logistics

Motorways of the sea 2020 Reduce sea shipping waiting time at ports by 10%.

Intermodal loading units (ILU) and freight integrators (Marco Polo Programme)

2020

Reduce cost at freight terminals by 30% viz:- fixed inventory (Euros/ton)- handling (Euro/m3)- storage (Euro/m3)

Reduce waiting time at terminals by 10%Reduce travel time by 10%

Road pricing (Eurovignette) for freight and passenger transportation

2020 Vehicle charges per country (€/veh-km)


Consortium


Reference Scenario Policies (II)

Policy ActionScenario year

Modelling

Liberalisation of transport markets and interoperability

Adoption of common rules in rail sector to improve interoperability and enhance quality of services

2020 Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%

Rail sector liberalisation --full separation between infrastructure and operations-

2020

Reduce rail freight travel cost by 10% (€/ton-km)

Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%

International passengers services deregulation

2020 Reduce rail passenger travel cost by 5% (€/pax-km)

Ports service liberalisation

2020 Reduce sea shipping costs (€/load) by 10 %

Airport slotsliberalisation

2020 Reduce tariffs for airport connections by 20%

Simplify Sea/IWW custom formalities

2020 Reduce sea and IWW port waiting times by 10%


Consortium


• Transport operating cost heavily dependant on fuel cost

• Operating cost calculation assumptions:

• Road freight transport fuel prices grow at 50% of crude oil rate

• IWW and Maritime Transport fuel prices grow at 80% of crude oil rate

• Rail electric power price grows at 30% of average energy rate

• Assumptions for crude oil and energy prices growth:

• Base year for prices: 2000 (Trans-Tools)

• Future trends: World Bank (2008) and STEPsproject (EC, 2006)

Total freight transport cost growth 2000-2025

Road 18.6%

Rail 1.7%

IWW 21.5%

Sea 16.9%

Freight Model Input


Transport Costs

Consortium


Year Name DemandTransport Costs

SupplyFERRMED Standards

2005 1. Base year 2005 2005 2005 -

2020 2. Reference 1st run

2020 Forecasts

Reference 2020

Planned 2020 -

20203. Reference 2nd run

Bottlenecks solution

Planned 2020 +

Infrastructural Solutions

-

20204. MEDIUM FERRMED 1st

runReference 2020 + MEDIUM

Planned 2020 +MEDIUM

MEDIUM

20205. MEDIUM FERRMED

2nd run Bottlenecks solution

Planned 2020 +MEDIUM+

Infrastructural Solutions

MEDIUM


Modelling Scenarios (I)

Consortium


FULLPlanned 2025 &

FULL

Reference 2025 + FULL

Long distance rail freight share assumed 35%

13. FERRMED Objective achieved

2025

Year Name DemandTransport Costs

SupplyFERRMED Standards

2025 6. Reference 1st run

2025 Forecasts

Reference 2025

Planned 2025 -

20257. Reference 2nd run


Planned 2025 &

Infrastructural Solutions-

2025 8. MEDIUM FERRMED 1st runReference 2025 + MEDIUM

Planned 2025 & MEDIUM MEDIUM

20259. MEDIUM FERRMED 2nd run

Bottlenecks solutionPlanned 2025 & MEDIUM & Infrastructural Solutions

MEDIUM

2025 10. FULL FERRMED 1st runReference 2025 + FULL

Planned 2025 & FULL FULL

202511. FULL FERRMED 2nd run


Planned 2025 & FULL &

Infrastructural SolutionsFULL

202512. Southern ports

enhancement 27% to 35%

North-South port share, assumed split 65-35%

Reference 2025 + FULL

Planned 2025 &

FULLFULL

2025 14. FERRMED FULL+ 2025 ForecastsReference 2025 + FULL

Planned 2025 &

FULL+FULL+


Modelling Scenarios (II)

Consortium


FERRMED StandardFERRMED Scenarios

1st RunFERRMED Scenarios

2nd Run

1. Signalling Included Included

2. Train Length Included Included

3. New terminals and expansion Included Included

4. Maximum Axle Load Included New lines

5. Width of the tracks UIC 1435 mm Included Included

6. Liberalisation of the rail freight market Included (Ref. Scenario) Included (Ref. Scenario)

7. Reliability and Quality Included Included

8. Loading gauge UIC C As in Reference scenario For Upgraded and New lines

9. Two Parallel lines in core FERRMED rail network

Included when justified Included when justified

10. Increase of Freight train priority As in Reference scenario Selected lines

11. Slope limitation to 12 ‰ As in Reference scenarioIncluded when needed to solve

slope bottlenecks

12. Homogenisation of Power type As in Reference scenario Included

13. Renewal of Rolling stock Indirect Effect Indirect effect


FERRMED Standards

Implementation

Consortium


FERRMED Standards

Modelling

Modelling variables:

• Link Speed

• Line capacity

• Border crossing delays

• Loading capacity

• Operating costs

• Market prices

• Costs at freight terminals (handling, storage…)

• Times at terminals

Consortium


Modelling variable FULL FERRMED Scenario MEDIUM FERRMED Scenario

Link Speed + 15% + 0%

Line capacity + 15% + 0%

Border crossing delays Eliminated Eliminated

Loading capacity +50% +45%

Operating costs -25% -15%

Market prices -25% -15%

Costs at freight terminals(handling, storage…)

-20% -15%

Times at terminals -35% -25%


FERRMED Standards

Modelling

Consortium


Freight Transport Performance


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Bil

lio

n (

109

) to

ns-

km

Road Rail IWW Sea

Sea 918 1374 1373 1510 1502 1499 1580 1499

IWW 148 246 245 265 262 260 264 260

Rail 265 409 453 453 491 524 527 574

Road 1481 2231 2191 2319 2286 2274 2284 2223

1. 2005 Base Year

3. 2020 Reference 2nd

run

5. 2020 Medium FERRMED 2nd

run


run

9. 2025 Medium FERRMED 2 nd

run

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2nd

run

12. 2025 Southern Ports enhancement

13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)

Bill

ion

( 1

09)

ton

nes

-km

Consortium


Freight Transport Growth Rates

Period Scenario Rail Road IWWTotal Inland

SeaTotal All

2005-2020

3. 2020 Reference 2nd Run Bottlenecks Solution

54% 51% 66% 52% 50% 52%

2005-2020

5. 2020 Medium FERRMED 2nd run Bottlenecks solution

71% 48% 65% 52% 51% 52%

2005-2025

7. 2025 Reference 2nd run Bottlenecks solution

71% 57% 79% 60% 64% 62%

2005-2025

9. 2025 Medium FERRMED 2nd run Botteleneck solutions

85% 54% 77% 60% 64% 62%

2005-2025

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2nd run Bottlenecks solution

97% 54% 76% 61% 63% 62%


Consortium


Freight Modal Split


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW Sea

Sea 32,6% 32,2% 32,2% 33,2% 33,1% 32,9% 34,0% 32,9%

IWW 5,3% 5,8% 5,8% 5,8% 5,8% 5,7% 5,7% 5,7%

Rail 9,4% 9,6% 10,6% 10,0% 10,8% 11,5% 11,3% 12,6%

Road 52,7% 52,4% 51,4% 51,0% 50,3% 49,9% 49,0% 48,8%

1. 2005 Base Year


run

5. 2020 Medium FERRMED 2nd

run


run

9. 2025 Medium FERRMED 2 nd

run

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2nd

run



Consortium


Inland Freight Modal Split



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW

IWW 7,8% 8,5% 8,7% 8,7% 8,5% 8,6% 8,5%

Rail 14,0% 14,2% 14,9% 16,1% 17,1% 17,1% 18,8%

Road 78,2% 77,3% 76,4% 75,2% 74,4% 74,3% 72,7%

1. 2005 Base Year3. 2020 Reference

2nd run 7. 2025 Reference

2nd run9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2 nd run11. 2025 Full

FERRMED 2nd run


27% to 35%


Consortium


Average Trip Distance

21%

21%

21%

21%

21%

21%

23%

Trips >1000 km

11%

11%

11%

12%

11%

11%

10%

Trips [750, 1000] km

18%

18%

18%

17%

17%

17%

16%

Trips [500, 750] km

50%

50%

50%

50%

51%

51%

51%

Trips < 500 km

Rail

Trip Distance Distribution

Road

Trips< 500 km

Trips [500, 750] km

Trips [750, 1000] km

Trips >1000 km

1. 2005 Base Year 75% 11% 5% 9%

3. 2020 Reference 2nd run Bottlenecks Solution

74% 11% 5% 10%

5. 2020 Medium FERRMED 2nd Bottlenecks Solution

74% 11% 6% 9%

7. 2025 Reference 2nd run Bottlenecks Solution

74% 11% 5% 10%

9. 2025 Medium FERRMED 2nd run Bottlenecks Solution

74% 10% 6% 10%

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2nd run Bottlenecks Solution

74% 10% 6% 10%

12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement 27% to 35%

74% 10% 6% 10%


Average Rail trip distance around 300 km

Consortium


Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>500 km)


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW

IWW 19,6% 20,2% 19,8% 20,2% 19,9% 19,6% 19,9% 19,8%

Rail 20,5% 20,7% 22,6% 21,4% 23,0% 24,3% 24,6% 35,0%

Road 59,9% 59,1% 57,7% 58,4% 57,1% 56,1% 55,6% 45,1%

1. 2005 Base Year


Run

5. 2020 Medium

FERRMED


run

9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2

nd run

12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement



Consortium


Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>1000 km)



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW

IWW 14,4% 15,1% 14,7% 15,5% 15,1% 14,7% 15,1% 14,7%

Rail 24,1% 24,7% 26,4% 25,2% 26,4% 28,2% 28,9% 39,8%

Road 61,5% 60,2% 58,9% 59,3% 58,5% 57,1% 56,0% 45,4%

1. 2005 Base Year


Run

5. 2020 Medium

FERRMED 2nd


run

9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2

nd run

12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement


Consortium


2025 REFERENCE Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)


Consortium


2025 FULL FERRMED Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)

Consortium


Passenger Modal Split


(Measured in passenger - km)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail Air

Air 9,6% 11,0% 11,0% 11,9% 11,9% 11,9% 11,9% 11,9%

Rail 4,5% 6,1% 6,1% 6,6% 6,6% 6,6% 6,6% 6,6%

Road 85,9% 82,9% 82,9% 81,5% 81,5% 81,5% 81,5% 81,5%

1. 2005 Base Year


run

5. 2020 Medium

FERRMED


run

9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2

11. 2025 Full FERRMED

2nd run



Consortium


FERRMED: Reversing the trend (I)

Inland Freight Transport Performance 1995 - 2005: EUROSTAT PocketBook 2005 - 2025: FERRMED Forecasting

25814.2%221

15.5%

45314.9%

49116.1%

57418.8%

52417.1%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

300019

95

2000

2005

(1)

2005

Bas

e Y

ear

(3)

2020

Ref

eren

ce 2

nd

Ru

n

(7)

2025

Ref

. 2n

d r

un

Bo

ttle

nec

ks s

olu

tio

n

(1)

2005

Bas

e Y

ear

(5)

2020

Med

ium

FE

RR

ME

D2n

d r

un

(9)

2025

Med

ium

FE

RR

ME

D2n

d r

un

(1)

2005

Bas

e Y

ear

(11)

202

5 F

ull

FE

RR

ME

D 2

nd

run

(12)

202

5 S

ou

ther

n p

ort

sen

han

cem

ent

27%

to

35%

(13)

202

5 O

bj.

ach

ieve

d:

RA

IL 3

5% (

>50

0Km

)

Bill

ion

( 1

09 ) t

on

nes

-km

Rail Ref.IWW Ref.

Total

Total Ref.

Total MEDIUM

Total FULL

RoadRailIWW

Road Ref.

Road MEDIUMRail MEDIUMIWW MEDIUM

Road FULLRail FULLIWW FULL


Consortium


• Planned and committed projects plus European policies and

global trends stop the trend of losing modal share by the

freight rail sector, achieving also a slight increase in share

(9.4% in 2005 to 10% in 2025)

• FERRMED Standards implementation REVERSES THE TREND

with 16% growth in tonnes-km in rail market and 2% decrease

by road in 2025

• Railway (inland, +750 km trips) modal share increases from

22.6% (2005) to 23.1 (2025 Reference), while Full FERRMED

further increases the share to 26.1%.


FERRMED: Reversing the trend (II)

Supply and Demand Analysis - eesc.europa.eu · Supply & Demand Analysis 4 Trans-Tools Modelling...

Documents

Transcript of Supply and Demand Analysis - eesc.europa.eu · Supply & Demand Analysis 4 Trans-Tools Modelling...