Super 7 Picks - October 2018

Techno Funda Report - October 2018

BP Equities Private Limited (www.bpwealth.com)

B P W E A L T H

12th October, 2018

Research Team [email protected]

022-61596406

Index

Company Recommendation Price (Rs) Entry Range (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Stop Loss (Rs) Page No.

ACC Ltd. Buy 1503.2 CMP-1460 1680 1400 1

Asian Paints Ltd. Buy 1261.2 CMP 1400 1190 2

Coal India Ltd. Buy 278.6 CMP 310 263 3

Cummins India Ltd. Buy 680.25 CMP-650 740 630 4

ICICI Bank Ltd. Buy 319.4 CMP-310 360 295 5

ITC Ltd. Buy 275.2 CMP 310 259 6

NMDC Ltd. Buy 111.25 CMP-107 132 101 7



B P W E A L T H

Performance Tracker

Performance Tracker May 2018

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Amara Raja Batteries Ltd Buy 840 960 Stoploss Triggered

2 Gail (India) Ltd Buy 339 380 Stoploss Triggered

3 Hero MotoCorp Ltd Buy 3650-3550 4030 Stoploss Triggered

4 Multi Commodity Exchange Buy 760-740 860 Target Achieved

5 Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd Buy 189 220 Stoploss Triggered

6 PNB Housing Finance Ltd Buy 1283-1240 1395 Stoploss Triggered

7 Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd Buy 385-375 430 Profit booked at 397

Techno Funda Return For May, 2018 : -1.90% , Nifty Return For May, 2018 : -0.4%

Performance Tracker June 2018


1 Bajaj-Auto Ltd Buy 2897 3220 Stoploss Triggered

2 Coal India Ltd Buy 295-285 340 Stoploss Triggered

3 Colgate Palmolive (I) Ltd Buy 1230-1200 1380 Exit at 1185

4 Equitas Holdings Ltd Buy 165-159 184 Stoploss Triggered

5 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Buy 1372-1340 1530 Stoploss Triggered

6 Multi Commodity Exchange Buy 840-810 930 Stoploss Triggered

7 State Bank of India Ltd Buy 267-257 297 Profit booked at 284.5

Techno Funda Return For June, 2018 : -4.09% , Nifty Return For June, 2018 : 0.2%

-1.9%

4.1%

-2.9%

4.0% 5.1%

0.0%

-2.4%

4.4%

-0.4%

0.2%

5.3%3.5%

-6.4%

5.0% 5.9%

-0.3%

1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.7%

-1.9%-4.1%

1.1%

5.5%

-1.0%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Nifty Return Techno Funda Return



B P W E A L T H

Techno Funda Return For July, 2018 : 1.09% , Nifty Return For July, 2018 : 5.3%

Performance Tracker July 2018


1 Apollo Hospitals Ent Ltd Buy 1047-1000 1220 Stoploss Triggered

2 Asian Paints Ltd Buy 1264-1210 1370 Not Initiated

3 Bata India Ltd Buy 835-810 920 Target Achieved

4 Cipla Ltd Buy 595-575 670 Not Initiated

5 Colgate Palmolive (I) Ltd Buy 1185-1150 1350 Stoploss Triggered

6 Marico Ltd Buy 332-325 380 Profit booked at 365

7 Sun Pharmaceuticals Ind Ltd Buy 555-535 655 Exit at 557

Performance Tracker September 2018


1 Apollo Hospitals Buy 1140-1100 1300 Stoploss Triggered

2 Cummins Buy 750-730 860 Profit booked at 795 3 Grasim Buy CMP-1040 1190 Exit at 1022

4 MOIL Buy CMP 220 Stoploss Triggered

5 Sun Pharmaceuticals Ind Ltd Buy CMP-630 760 Exit at 1022

6 Torrent Power Ltd Buy 255-245 305 Profit booked at 272

7 TVS Motor Buy CMP-550 650 Profit booked at 599

Techno Funda Return For Aug, 2018 : 5.45% , Nifty Return For Aug, 2018 : 3.6%

Techno Funda Return For Sept, 2018 : -1.04% , Nifty Return For Sept, 2018 : -6.4%

Performance Tracker August 2018 Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Ambuja Cements Buy 220-210 252 Profit booked at 242 2 CEAT Buy 1392-1350 1570 Exit at 1386

3 Cipla Buy 636-615 750 Profit booked at 662

4 Godrej Inds Buy 638-620 720 Exit at 647

5 LIC Housing Finance Ltd Buy 537-520 595 Profit booked at 563

6 Petronet Buy 232-220 260 Profit booked at 248 7 Wipro Buy 275 314 Profit booked at 301

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

Cement

Technical View The stock is moving in an upsloping channel and has seen sharp reversal after taking support at the lower trend line. Recently the stock has reversed from 61.8% retracement levels of its prior up move from 1256 to 1679 levels, also it has formed bullish hammer candlestick pattern which suggests short term trend to turn bullish and recent trough to act as strong support. MACD has earlier given a bullish crossover and is now converging around its average near signal line, a failure to violate its average will make the stock resume its previous up move. We recommend to Buy ACC in the range of CMP-1460 fro the target of 1680 with a stop loss of 1400 in short term. Investment Rationale Higher Utilisations leading to better cost management & higher realizations ACC’s higher utilisation (~85%) provides sufficient flexibility to manage costs well mainly by reducing clinker factor through improved blending ratio, optimising lead distance and providing operating lever-age. Higher utilisation also allows to optimise market and product mix (premium products), leading to better realisation. Besides, higher exposure (~45%) to better demand/pricing in the markets of East and Central regions, ACC’s realisation is expected to remain firm. Focus on improving cost efficiencies; EBITDA/te gap with peers to narrow ACC is focused on improving its cost structure, with the increase in share of newer capacities, through increased energy efficiency by higher usage of petcoke, linkage coal, alternative fuels & raw materials (AFR), improving specific power consumption norms along with reduction in employee costs. Also, ACCs recent master supply arrangement with ACEM is expected to provide synergies to the tune of 3-5% of CY17 PBT (~Rs1bn-Rs1.5bn p.a.) to be shared equally between the two compa-nies.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 1680

Stop loss (Rs) 1400

Buying Range (Rs) CMP-1460

Last Close Price (Rs) 1503

% change Weekly 1.66

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards RSI Sideways MACD Buy Mode

ACC Ltd.

1

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 500410

NSE Symbol ACC

Bloomberg ACC IN

Reuters ACC.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 1,856 / 1,256

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 188

Market Cap (Rs bn) 282

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 826,090

6 months 678,130

1 year 521,080

MACD has given bullish crossover and now converging its moving average

Bullish reversal candlestick near 61.8 % retracement

2nd Feb ,

Buy


Paints

Technical View

The stock has reversed after taking support at the up sloping trend line which is drawn connecting the previous troughs and it has formed Bullish Harami candlestick which suggests the short term trend to turn bullish. Also the recent trough is formed close to 78.6% retracement levels of its previous up move from 1090 to 1491 which increases the reliability of the recent trough to act as strong support for short term trend. RSI has formed bullish reversal with price at oversold zone which is bullish sig-nal and compliments bullish view on price. We recommend to Buy ASIANPAINTS at CMP for the target of 1400 with a stop loss of 1190 in short term.

Investment Rationale

Market Leader in Decorative business

Asian Paints is the market leader in the decorative business with around 76% revenue from decora-tive business and Asian Paints is 3 times its 2nd largest player in India. With the rural housing de-mand uptick due to the ‘Housing for All by 2022’ by the Indian Government and the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana (PMAY), we believe that Asian Paints is to benefit being the market leader going ahead.

Major Capex Plans going Ahead

Asian Paints is planning to increase its capacities going ahead with 2 major capex of around Rs. 4,085 crores out of which Rs. 1,785 crores is to be spent for the development of its capacities in Vi-zag (Andhra Pradesh) and Rs. 2,300 crores to be spent in Mysuru (Karnataka) and both of them are a fully automated manufacturing plant. This will increase the capacities by 5,00,000 KL/annum and 6,00,000 KL/annum . The 1st Phase of the capex is basically 3,00,000 KL/annum of both the plants which will amount to around Rs. 1,000 crores.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 1400

Stop loss (Rs) 1190

Buying Range (Rs) CMP




13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Upwards RSI Sideways Mode MACD Buy Mode

Asian Paints Ltd.

2

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Positive

Stock

BSE code 500820

NSE Symbol ASIANPAINT

Bloomberg APNT IN

Reuters ASPN.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 1,489 / 1,082

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 959.1

Market Cap (Rs bn) 1,204

Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 1,310,610

6 months 1,114,400

1 year 964,070

RSI has formed bullish reversal with price

Bullish reversal candlestick near Rising trend line

2nd Feb ,

Buy


Mining

Technical View The stock is under sideways correction for the past ten months and has recently reversed after taking support at lower end of the sideways range which is a key support area. Also it has given confirma-tion to Inverted hammer candlestick by forming Marubozu candlestick which suggests the short term trend to turn bullish. RSI has formed bullish reversal with price at oversold zone which is bullish sig-nal and compliments bullish view on price. We recommend to Buy COALINDIA at CMP for the target of 310 with a stop loss of 263 in short term. Investment Rationale

Higher realization to directly flow into EBITDA, thereby boosting margins

Coal India clocked a healthy EBITDA/tonne of Rs. 374/tonne (vs. Rs.256/tonne in Q1FY18) on ac-count of volume increase of 11.7% and healthy realisations. We believe the company has started reaping the benefits of both coal price hike and coal evacuation charge of Rs.50/tonne taken at the end of previous calendar year 2017. On account of price revision, the company has projected incre-mental revenue of ~Rs. 6421 crore in FY19E. The levy is also likely to generate additional revenues of Rs.2500 crore in FY19E. Going forward, we expect Coal India to report EBITDA margins of 22% in FY19E and 21.3% in FY20E from that of 11.1% in FY18.

Government thrust on increasing output levels augurs well for the company

One of the key thrust areas of the government has been on augmenting domestic coal production. The government’s focal point is on reducing coal imports. Hence, the company has remained focused on enhancing CIL’s production. The company has maintained its 1 billion tonne target. However, they have postponed the time period for achieving the same by a few years. They expect the 1 billion tonne target to be now achieved in FY22-23 (from the earlier target of FY20). Going forward, we ex-pect coal production volumes to grow at a CAGR of 6% in FY18-20E to 680 MT.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 310

Stop loss (Rs) 263





13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Downwards RSI Buy Mode MACD Sideways Mode

Coal India Ltd.

3

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 533278

NSE Symbol COALINDIA

Bloomberg COAL IN

Reuters COAL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 293 / 240

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 6,207


Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 39,47,540

6 months 36,83,366

1 year 41,81,807

RSI has formed positive divergence

Bullish Reversal Candlesticks near support zone

Bullish reversal candlestick pattern near its key support area


2nd Feb ,

Buy


Capital Goods Execution Data

Target (Rs) 740

Stop Loss (Rs) 630





13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards

RSI Sideways Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Technical View

The stock has earlier given breakout from Falling wedge a bullish reversal price pattern which sug-gests the short term trend to turn bullish. Recently the stock has formed Bullish engulfing a bullish reversal candlestick pattern near 78.6% retracement of its previous up move which suggests the re-cent trough to act as strong support and short term trend to turn bullish. MACD had earlier given a bullish crossover and is now converging around its average, a failure to violate its average will make the stock resume its previous up move. We recommend to BUY CUMMINSIND in the range of CMP-650 for the target of 740 with a stop loss of 630 in short term.


Recent M&A can add Synergies

The recent media reports indicate that Cummins India is in forefront for acquiring KOEL at valuation of $500Mn. CIL has been facing stiff competition in Domestic genset market from KOEL itself in re-cent years which has led to margin pressures. Hence after this acquisition CIL would hold significant market share position in Genset business and achieve higher scale benefits. The company is also expected to gain from this acquisition in other ancillary business like lubricants and spares which are higher margin business.

Recovery in CV’s & Export Market can drive growth

Cummins has 50:50 JV with Tata Motors for manufacturing engines. Tata Motors has been gaining volumes in CV industry recently and CVs are using higher HP and this in turn is expected to drive demand for Engines, thus directly driving operating leverage befits for CIL. The recovery in demand for engine sin emerging markets and expected industrial recovery in India are expected to drive de-mand for both mid-HP and High-HP engines.

Cummins India Ltd.

4

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 500480

NSE Symbol CUMMINSIND

Bloomberg KKC IN

Reuters CUMM.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 993/611

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 277

Market Cap (Rs bn) 189

Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 533,580

6 months 480,780

1 year 446,040

MACD had earlier given bullish crossover and now converging its moving average

Breakout from falling Wedge with supportive volumes.

Bullish engulfing candlestick near 78.6% retracement

2nd Feb ,

Buy

BFSI

Technical View The stock has formed Doji which is also a bullish harami candlestick pattern which suggests exhaus-tion in selling pressure and short term trend to turn bullish. Also the recent trough coincides with 50% retracement levels of its previous up move from 257 to 347 which suggests the recent trough to act as strong support for short term trend. MACD had earlier given a bullish crossover and is resuming its up move after converging around its average which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to Buy ICICIBANK in the range of CMP-310 for the target of 360 with a stop loss of 295 in short term. Investment Rationale ICICI Bank is well placed to benefit from the upturn in domestic corporate loan cycle With a large portion of the stressed assets being recognized in the books, the NPA cycle seems to have bottomed out. Banks will be further able to clean their books aided by the ongoing resolution of NCLT cases albeit at a slow pace and also through the sale of NPAs to ARCs. This will help the banks in offloading stressed assets and focus on fresh lending, leading to a revival in the corporate lending cycle. Some select sectors are already indicating a recovery with an uptick in investment that can be seen. Banks that are well capitalized and have stable operating metrics would be able to par-ticipate effectively in this cycle.We feel that ICICI Bank would be a beneficiary of this phenomenon on the back of healthy capital adequacy ratio of 15.92% CET1.At the system level gross NPAs reduced to ~10% of loans including slippages which emerged primarily from the watch list..All in all, this trend seems positive for ICICI bank which has a corporate exposure of ~26% as of FY18. Focus on retail to help improve profitability and other metrics Retail credit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16-18% over FY18-20E, driven by the Housing and personal loan segment. ICICI bank with a strong brand franchise, well developed branch network and constant investments in technology has been strengthening its position in retail. Focus on retail will help the bank in improving asset quality, lowering credit costs and stabilizing NIM. Subsequently, return ratios would also improve boosting ROA and ROE. The bank’s total advances have grown at a CAGR of 10% (FY09-18).The bank’s total advances have grown at a CAGR of 10% (FY09-18).Although loan growth has remained more or less consistent over the past six years aside from the slowdown in FY17,most of this growth has been contributed by the retail segment which has been growing strongly at 18-20% over the past 4 years. Overall we expect loan growth to be in the mid teens over the next 2-3 years. The Retail segment formed 57% of the total advances in FY18 com-pared to 39% in FY14 and is expected to form 60% of the total advances BY FY21.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 360

Stop loss (Rs) 295





13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

ICICI Bank Ltd.

5

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 532174

NSE Symbol ICICIBANK

Bloomberg ICICIBC IN

Reuters ICBK.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 366/256



Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 22,254,772

6 months 22,812,208

1 year 20,522,386


MACD has given bullish crossover and now converging its moving average

Bullish reversal candlestick near 50% retracement of its previous up move

2nd Feb ,

Buy

FMCG

Technical View The stock has reversed after taking support at long term upsloping trend line which suggests the re-cent trough to act as support for short term trend. Also it has formed Hammer a bullish reversal can-dlestick pattern near 78.6% retracement levels of its previous up move from 253 to 323 which also which increases the reliability of the recent trough to act as strong support and short term trend to tur bullish. RSI has formed bullish reversal with price at oversold zone which is bullish signal and compli-ments bullish view on price. We recommend to Buy ITC at CMP for the target of 310 with a stop loss of 259 in short term. Investment Rationale Unlikely tax hike in near future to aid streamlined growth The cumulative growth in tax incidence on cigarettes in India stands at a staggering 202 per cent since 2011-12, i.e. the last six years. VST Industries’ cigarette volumes witnessed continuous de-growth over the last four years due to an unfavorable tax structure leading the company to depend on price hike driven growth over the years. Factors such as - decent GST revenue collections in recent month’s (96,483 crs in July 2018) and already exorbitant tax incidence in the industry, fear that a fur-ther rise in tax would exacerbate the situation, to pave way for illegally manufactured cigarette indus-try leading to tax kitty loss to the government. VST is well placed to grow with premiumization led initiatives under such environment. Firing on all Business Fronts In the backdrop of these demographics, we believe that cigarette volumes will recover hereon driven by (1) Improving consumer sentiments, (2) Recovery in rural consumption (upgrade from bidi to mini cig.) which forms 2/3rd volume share, (3) Improving standard of living, (4) Stable tax environment and (5) Curbing illicit trade (driven by WHO treaty). Our thesis is based on the assumption that tax hikes (price hike not more than general inflation) will not be as steep as witnessed in the last 5 years. In such a scenario, ITC can deliver mid single digit volume growth during FY18-21E. ITC in its pack-aged food portfolio has successfully built power brands like Aashirvaad, Sunfeast and Bingo. Its strength lies in backward integration, large appetite to spend on brand investments and pan-India distribution. With improving consumption dynamics, ITC can scale its existing portfolio (a 13x oppor-tunity) through several brand extensions and enter in newer categories. We believe ITC’s strategy will also be around profitable growth after achieving a meaningful scale. Other non-cigarette segments (Hotels, Paper and Agri) are also on the verge of posting improved performance. We expect overall non-cigarette business to grow by 14% CAGR during FY18-21E.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 310

Stop loss (Rs) 259



% change Daily (0.47)


13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards

RSI Sideways Mode

MACD Buy Mode

ITC Ltd.

6

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 500875

NSE Symbol ITC

Bloomberg ITC IN

Reuters ITC.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 323 / 250



Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 14,591,400

6 months 12,395,480

1 year 12,264,010


Support at rising trend line

Resuming up move after taking support at down sloping trend line

Bullish reversal candlestick near long term upsloping trendline

Support at rising trend line


2nd Feb ,

Buy


Metals & Mining

Technical View

The stock has reversed from 61.8% retracement levels of its previous up move from 94 to 124 which suggests the recent trough to act as strong support for short term trend. Also the stock has formed piercing line a bullish candlestick pattern which suggests short term trend to turn bullish. MACD had earlier given a bullish crossover and is now converging around its average, a failure to violate its av-erage will make the stock resume its previous up move. We recommend to Buy NMDC in the range of CMP-107 for the target of 132 with a stop loss of 101 in short term.


Sharp increase in Iron ore and Pellet price augurs well for the company NMDC has revised prices of domestic iron ore thrice YTD, adding up to Rs300 and Rs350 per tonne for iron ore fines and lump ore to Rs2,960/tonne and Rs3,350/tonne, respectively. We believe the benefit of this sharp increase in prices will directly flow into the EBITDA, thereby boosting overall margins. Furthermore, the company has a pellet plant of 1.2 MT. Following the continued shut-down of Brazilian pelletizer Samarco's mine and China's strict blast furnace production control has led to huge demand of pellets by China from India, resulting in a 25% increase in pellet prices over the previous months to Rs8,100/tonne (~4 years high) which also au-gurs well for the company.

Forward integration in finished steel products on track of completion During FY18, the company incurred a capex of | 1809 crore towards the Nagarnar steel plant. Till date, the company has spent overall | 13875 crore towards the project. Currently, the progress of civil work, structural and equipment erection continue to be in an advanced stage. The company has also begun procurement of raw material, spares and consumables for initial requirement. NMDC is aiming to roll out the first hot rolled (HR) coil by March 2019.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 132

Stop loss (Rs) 101





13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards RSI Sideways Mode MACD Buy Mode

NMDC Ltd.

7

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 526371

NSE Symbol NMDC

Bloomberg NMDC IN

Reuters NMDC.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,473

52WeekH/L(Rs) 162/ 93

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 3163.9

Market Cap (Rs bn) 351.9

Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 4348600

6 months 3337380

1 year 3946720

MACD has given bullish crossover

Bullish reversal candlestick at 61.8% retracement

Research Desk Tel: +91 22 61596406

Disclaimer Appendix

Institutional Sales Desk Tel: +91 22 61596403/04/05

Analyst (s) holding in the Stock : Nil

Analyst (s) Certification:

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