Sunday%20Times%20May%20Final%20Report

Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudes May 2012 Opinion Poll 18th – 23rd May, 2012

Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.3802

Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 933 eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Fieldwork was conducted over the period Friday 18th – Wednesday 23rd May, 2012, with interviewing carried out at the Behaviour & Attitudes Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) Unit at Milltown House in Dublin.

Interviewing was conducted across all 43 constituencies in the country with households selected for interview by way of Random Digit Dialling (RDD).

The sample is split across RDD landline numbers and RDD mobile telephone numbers, so as to ensure that individuals living in landline only households, mobile only households, and households with both a landline and mobile telephone are represented in their correct proportions.

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Technical Appendix

The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking variable election day turnout levels into account.

All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

Charted Summary

6

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

12th February

2011 (f/w: 31st Jan

– 12th Feb, 2011)

24th August, 2011

(f/w 16th – 24th August, 2011)

2nd October,

2011 (f/w 20th Sept

– 2nd Oct, 2011)

18th October,

2011 (f/w 16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th December

, 2011 (f/w 7th-12th Dec, 2011)

20th February,

2012 (f/w 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th April, 2012

(f/w 11th – 17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May 2012

(f/w 18th – 23rd May,

2012)

The Government

5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31%

Micheál Martin

43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41%

Enda Kenny 40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42%

Eamon Gilmore

55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32%

Gerry Adams 40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42%

Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29%

Q.2 Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country? Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his job as (…….)?

7

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels

12th February

2011 (f/w: 31st Jan – 12th

Feb, 2011)

24th August, 2011

(f/w 16th – 24th August,

2011)

2nd October,

2011 (f/w 20th Sept – 2nd

Oct, 2011)

18th October,

2011 (f/w 16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th December

, 2011 (f/w 7th-12th Dec, 2011)

20th February,

2012 (f/w 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th April, 2012


2012)

23rd May 2012


2012)

Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12%

Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24%

Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8%

Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17%

Green Party 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1%

Independents/ Others

10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10%

Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

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Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

12th February,

2011 (f/w: 31st Jan

– 12th Feb, 2011)

General Election Result 25th

February

24th August, 2011

(f/w 16th – 24th August, 2011)

2nd October,

2011 (f/w 20th Sept

– 2nd Oct, 2011)

18th October,

2011 (f/w 16th – 18th

Oct, 2011)

12th December,

2011 (f/w 7th-12th Dec, 2011)

20th February,

2012 (f/w 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th April, 2012


2012)

23rd May 2012

(f/w 18th – 23rd May, 2012)

Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17%

Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33%

Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11%

Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23%

Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1%

Independent/Others

14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14%


9

Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note

Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

Generally speaking one expects support for Government parties to decline in mid term with a corresponding rise in support for the Opposition. This is, of course, particularly true when times are tough.

The present situation is compounded by the fact that we have a coalition Government with quite different patterns of response among the constituent parties. Fine Gael voters are - by and large - behind Mr. Kenny and the performance of his Government. The same cannot be said for Labour and Mr. Gilmore. In these circumstances one might expect a greater swing in mood against Labour: with the opposition parties sharing a common base with them most likely to benefit.

10

Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note

What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of swing from the last election results.

We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not answer that particular question.

Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a forthcoming General Election.

This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

11

Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

Adjusted figures based on:

All who state they would definitely vote

Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a general election and who they voted for in the last election, in line with the result of the last election.

Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in last election.

2nd October,

2011 (f/w 20th Sept

– 2nd Oct, 2011)

18th October,

2011 (f/w 16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th December

, 2011 (f/w 7th-12th Dec, 2011)

20th February,

2012 (f/w 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th April, 2012


2012)

23rd May 2012


2012)

Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16%

Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33%

Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14%

Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17%

Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2%

Independents/ Others

17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18%


12

Likely Voting Intentions and Level of Understanding

Base: All Eligible Voters Voting intention

17th April, 2012

(f/w 11th – 17th Apr. 2012)

23rd May 2012

(f/w 18th – 23rd May, 2012)

Will vote yes in favour of treaty

42% 45%

Will vote no against treaty 27% 30%

Don’t know 29% 20%

Will not vote 3% 4%

Base: All Eligible Voters Level of Understanding

17th April, 2012

(f/w 11th – 17th Apr. 2012)

23rd May 2012

(f/w 18th – 23rd May, 2012)

Understand it very well 6% 8%

Understand it quite well 12% 20%

Understand it to some extent 27% 37% Do not understand it particularly well 23% 18%

Do not understand it at all 32% 16%

Once the undecideds are excluded, 60% indicate they will vote yes in the Referendum, and 40% no.

The proportion of voters indicating at least some understanding of the referendum has increased significantly from just 45% to 65%

Q.8 As you are probably aware, on May 31st next a referendum will be held in relation to the European Union Fiscal Treaty – otherwise known as the Fiscal Compact Treaty. In the referendum, people will be asked to vote either in favour of or against the Treaty. Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the European Union Fiscal Treaty, or no against the European Union Fiscal Treaty?

Q.9 And thinking of the forthcoming European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the European Union Fiscal Treaty referendum is about?

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Likely Voting Intention x Understanding


April 17th May 23rd

Base: All Eligible Voters Total

Treaty Understanding Total

Treaty Understanding

Understand Don’t Understand

Understand Don’t Understand

Base: 946 445 501 933 614 319 % % % % % %

Will vote yes in favour of treaty 42 57 29 45 54 28

Will vote no against treaty 27 30 24 30 31 27

Don’t know 29 10 44 20 12 36

Will not vote 3 2 3 4 2 9


As was the case in April, a sizeable proportion of those who do not understand the treaty are still undecided as to how to vote

Those who do not fully understand the

Treaty but still intend to vote are split

evenly between yes and no

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Likely Voting Intention in Referendum x Demographics


Base: All Eligible Voters

Total

Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter

Munster Conn/ Ulster

Urban Rural

Base: 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Will vote yes in favour of treaty

45 50 41 40 46 50 50 40 59 44 46 44 50 45 47

Will vote no against treaty 30 30 30 30 30 29 23 36 22 33 30 30 23 30 29

Don’t know 20 16 24 22 21 17 21 20 14 18 20 20 24 21 19

Will not vote 4 4 5 8 2 4 6 3 6 4 4 6 3 4 5

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Likely Voting Intention in Referendum x Party Support



Total

Party Support

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael Labour Green Party

Sinn Fein Indep endent/ Others

Would not/ DK

Base: 933 113 237 76 13 140 109 245 % % % % % % % %

Will vote yes in favour of treaty 45 61 75 65 45 20 21 31

Will vote no against treaty 30 19 9 21 43 60 48 30

Don’t know 20 18 15 9 12 19 28 27

Will not vote 4 2 1 5 - 1 2 11

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How well do you understand Referendum x Demographics



Total

Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter

Munster Conn/ Ulster

Urban Rural

Base: 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Understand it very well 8 8 9 2 13 8 9 8 * 8 9 6 11 8 9

Understand it quite well 20 25 15 17 17 28 22 18 23 17 22 25 16 18 24

Understand it to some extent 37 39 36 42 36 34 38 36 39 44 35 30 42 40 33

Do not understand it particularly well

18 15 21 18 20 15 16 18 29 14 19 20 19 17 19

Do not understand it at all

16 14 19 20 14 15 14 19 9 17 15 19 13 17 14

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How well do you understand Referendum x Party Support


Total

Party Support

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael Labour Green Party

Sinn Fein Indep endent/ Others

Would not/ DK

Base: 933 113 237 76 13 140 109 245 % % % % % % % %

Understand it very well 8 11 7 14 9 13 4 5

Understand it quite well 20 24 25 24 15 14 22 17

Understand it to some extent 37 37 46 41 40 29 43 32

Do not understand it particularly well 18 17 17 14 35 18 16 21

Do not understand it at all 16 11 6 7 - 26 14 25


Commentary

19

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series Background

Fieldwork for today’s poll was conducted over the period Friday 18th – Wednesday, 23rd May.

As such, survey work was carried out a week and a half or so in advance of polling day on Thursday. A significant event or series of events would therefore need to occur over the next few days if the voting intentions registered in today’s survey are to change radically on polling day itself.

There has been quite an amount of activity on both the yes and no sides with regard to the Referendum since the last poll conducted in mid-April. We have witnessed a number of high profile media debates on the issue, and both camps have made reasonably clear and coherent arguments for their stance in such encounters.

Government spokespersons have been unequivocal in their rejection of any chance of the Referendum being delayed until events in Europe become clearer, and Referendum Commission Information booklets have by now been delivered to the majority of homes across the country.

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Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series Background

On the no side, the same core messages around rejecting the treaty as an anti-austerity tactic has remained consistent throughout. Meanwhile, Government parties appear to have become more hard-nosed in their pronouncements as to the likely impact on the Irish economy in the event of our rejecting the treaty.

All in all, therefore, debate and coverage of the Referendum has increased significantly since our last poll in April, and both sides of the debate have set their stall out reasonably clearly and succinctly from day one, sticking to a cogent set of messages to the electorate over the last couple of weeks in particular.

Taking all of these dynamics into account, coupled with the findings from today’s poll, it is our view that the die has now been cast, and that the outcome of the vote has by now been all but decided.

21

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series

European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum

Since the last Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times poll conducted in mid-April, the proportion of undecided voters has decreased significantly from 32% to just 24%.

Crucially, those who have made their minds up how to vote over the last five weeks have split evenly between those intending to vote yes, and those likely to vote no.

As it stands, therefore, 45% of all eligible voters indicate that they are likely to vote yes in favour of the treaty, with 30% likely to vote no. Once the undecideds are excluded from the calculation, 60% of voters indicate they will vote yes in the Referendum, and 40% no.

Those in favour of a yes vote are more likely to be aged 35 years+ (i.e. older voters who are more likely to actually vote on the day), as well as more middle class white collar workers and those in the farming community.

The highest no vote registers at 36% of the blue collar C2DE cohort, although the yes vote is still higher amongst this grouping at 40%.

22


European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum

Support for the Treaty is by far highest amongst Fine Gael (75%), Labour Party (65%) and Fianna Fail (61%) supporters, and correspondingly lowest amongst Sinn Féin (20%) and Independent candidate (21%) supporters. Further analysis of the data indicates that the shifts in support of the Treaty have been generated almost exclusively by way of female voters who have converted from the undecideds. In fact, the proportion of male voters registered as undecideds in today’s poll is almost identical to that prevailing in April, while the female undecided figure has dropped from a highly significant 41% in April to just 29% in May.

Other groupings which have exhibited significant increases in support for the Treaty include the ABC1 middle class/white collar worker segment, and those living in urban areas in general.

With regard to grassroots political party supporters, the greatest increase in support for the Treaty has occurred amongst Labour Party voters, where the stated yes vote has increased from 45% to 65%.

23

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum

The key finding here is that as the number of undecideds has decreased, the 60:40 advantage enjoyed by the yes campaign has remained rock solid. Previous Referendums which were rejected by the electorate were preceded by a series of opinion polls which indicated a disproportionate number of undecideds shifting into the no camp as election day approached.

The dynamic of this campaign would certainly bode well for those in favour of a yes vote.

In our coverage of last month’s Referendum poll, our commentary noted that voters who have a limited understanding of the details of the referendum are more likely either not to vote at all, or vote no in protest at the perceived failure of the establishment to adequately explain the facts of the matter.

Indeed, Behaviour & Attitude’s analysis of levels of understanding of both the Lisbon I and Lisbon II Referendums in opinion polls conducted by the company on behalf of the Referendum Commission concluded that in or around 30% of the Electorate should understand a treaty very/quite well, and no more than 15% to 20% should indicate that they do not understand it at all by voting day if it is to have a reasonable chance of being passed.

24

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum

Today’s poll reveals that there has been a highly significant improvement in the understanding of voters of the Fiscal Treaty Referendum since the last poll, with the proportion of voters indicating at least some understanding of the Referendum having increased from just 45% in April to 65% this week. More specifically, the percentage of citizens professing to understand the Treaty either very well or quite well has increased from 18% to 28%, with a corresponding decline in the proportion suggesting they do not understand it at all from 32% to 16%.

In summary, therefore, over the last five weeks there has been a marked increase in the understanding of the Referendum amongst the populace in general. In tandem with this increased understanding, the proportion of voters undecided as to how they will vote has declined, with the yes and no votes increasing by exactly the same percentage.

Our interpretation of this dynamic is that the yes vote has consolidated considerably since April and that, barring a series of unforeseen developments over the next five days, the Referendum is likely to be passed.

25


Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

There has been no significant movement in satisfaction levels for the Government in general, nor for Gerry Adams and Eamon Ryan as leader of their respective parties.

The indications are, however, that Micheál Martin has benefitted from his heightened profile as part of Fianna Fáil’s campaign for a yes vote in the Referendum.

In fact, his satisfaction rating has increased seven percentage points over the course of the last number of weeks, and now stands at its highest level (41%) since just after he was elected leader of Fianna Fáil in January 2011.

With Martin’s leadership of the party registering a 79% satisfaction level amongst Fianna Fáil’s supporters, it is clear that Eamon O’Cuiv’s leadership manoeuvres over the last few weeks have been singularly unsuccessful.

Meanwhile, the increases in satisfaction levels for both Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore as Tánaiste which we saw in April had been reversed entirely, with Enda Kenny’s satisfaction level now on 42%, on a par with both Gerry Adam’s and Micheál Martin’s.

26


Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

In terms of political parties, Fine Gael remains by far the most popular in the country, commanding the support of one-third of the electorate – an opinion poll showing which has been remarkably consistent throughout 2012.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin remains the second largest party in the state in terms of support levels, and is particularly strong amongst male voters, and those from a skilled and unskilled working background.

Interestingly, support for Sinn Féin is evenly spread across all age groups 18 years+, confirming that the historical appeal of the party to primarily younger voters has smoothed out over the last couple of years.

Labour Party support at 14% is particularly strong amongst the 18-34 years age group where, at 17%, the party is ahead of both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil. Labour is also the second most popular party within the ABC1 white collar/middle class section of the electorate, and in the Dublin region in general.

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Finally, support for Fianna Fáil remains stubbornly fixed in or around the 17% share of the vote it achieved in last year’s general election. Approaching half of those expressing support for Fianna Fáil are aged 55 years or more. The message for the party is clear – either it identifies significant points of difference between itself and the other mainstream political parties or it becomes irrelevant to the vast majority of Irish people over the next five to ten years.

Tabular Report

MayTeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

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Table 1 Fieldwork : 18th - 23rd May 2012 Page 1

Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural FiannaFail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,421 1,677 1,744 1,169 1,261 991 1,372 1,795 254 985 870 948 618 2,094 1,327 418 791 264 37 552 342 1,017

Unweighted Total 973 475 498 322 366 285 394 512 67 278 244 267 184 650 323 115 239 77 14 142 111 275Yes, eligible 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

96% 95% 97% 90% 98% 99% 95% 96% 100% 95% 97% 95% 96% 94% 98% 96% 99% 99% 87% 99% 96% 90%

No – not eligible 134 79 55 105 21 8 67 67 - 41 25 43 24 107 27 11 4 2 5 4 12 964% 5% 3% 9% 2% 1% 5% 4% - 4% 3% 5% 4% 5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 13% 1% 4% 9%

Don’t know 15 12 3 11 4 - 7 8 - 12 - 3 - 15 - 5 - - - 4 - 50% 1% 0% 1% 0% - 1% 0% - 1% - 0% - 1% - 1% - - - 1% - 1%


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Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Likelihood Treaty Understanding

Wouldvote

Woulddefinitely vote

Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,421 2,834 2,479 354 159 382 1,178 2,243

Unweighted Total 973 809 703 106 47 107 339 634Yes, eligible 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

96% 98% 98% 99% 83% 85% 95% 96%

No – not eligible 134 55 50 4 23 46 44 904% 2% 2% 1% 14% 12% 4% 4%

Don’t know 15 - - - 4 11 15 -0% - - - 3% 3% 1% -


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Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Satisfied 1,014 580 434 251 358 406 443 464 107 275 269 226 243 555 459 106 499 108 14 40 48 199

31% 37% 26% 24% 29% 41% 34% 27% 42% 30% 32% 25% 41% 28% 35% 26% 63% 41% 43% 7% 15% 22%

Dissatisfied 2,095 944 1,151 714 821 560 771 1,177 147 600 539 639 316 1,285 810 282 231 132 19 497 267 66864% 60% 68% 68% 66% 57% 59% 68% 58% 64% 64% 71% 53% 65% 62% 70% 29% 50% 57% 91% 81% 73%

No opinion 163 62 101 89 57 18 84 79 - 56 36 37 34 131 32 14 57 22 - 7 14 485% 4% 6% 8% 5% 2% 6% 5% - 6% 4% 4% 6% 7% 2% 3% 7% 8% - 1% 4% 5%


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Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Likelihood Treaty Understanding

Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Satisfied 1,014 922 856 66 15 77 198 816

31% 33% 35% 19% 11% 24% 18% 38%

Dissatisfied 2,095 1,732 1,469 263 115 218 849 1,24664% 62% 60% 75% 87% 67% 76% 58%

No opinion 163 125 104 21 2 30 71 925% 5% 4% 6% 1% 9% 6% 4%


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Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916


42% 45% 39% 38% 41% 48% 49% 35% 56% 41% 43% 39% 49% 40% 45% 37% 85% 60% 41% 11% 22% 29%

Dissatisfied 1,707 803 904 516 701 491 597 1,004 107 492 428 515 272 1,047 660 236 98 103 19 449 233 56852% 51% 54% 49% 57% 50% 46% 58% 42% 53% 51% 57% 46% 53% 51% 59% 12% 40% 59% 83% 71% 62%

No opinion 188 66 122 133 30 25 61 121 5 60 55 39 33 135 52 19 23 2 - 34 24 856% 4% 7% 13% 2% 3% 5% 7% 2% 6% 7% 4% 6% 7% 4% 5% 3% 1% - 6% 7% 9%


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Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Satisfied 1,377 1,265 1,134 132 28 84 340 1,037

42% 46% 47% 38% 21% 26% 30% 48%

Dissatisfied 1,707 1,390 1,215 175 97 199 655 1,05252% 50% 50% 50% 74% 61% 59% 49%

No opinion 188 123 80 43 6 42 123 656% 4% 3% 12% 5% 13% 11% 3%


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Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916


32% 34% 30% 33% 29% 35% 35% 29% 42% 31% 29% 32% 39% 31% 35% 26% 59% 51% 25% 13% 15% 25%

Dissatisfied 1,921 918 1,002 527 792 601 732 1,049 140 530 510 550 330 1,154 767 249 285 99 23 411 269 58459% 58% 59% 50% 64% 61% 56% 61% 55% 57% 60% 61% 56% 59% 59% 62% 36% 38% 69% 75% 82% 64%

No opinion 298 126 172 183 80 35 118 173 7 109 90 67 32 215 83 46 41 28 2 64 12 1059% 8% 10% 17% 7% 4% 9% 10% 3% 12% 11% 7% 5% 11% 6% 12% 5% 11% 6% 12% 4% 11%


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Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Satisfied 1,053 928 825 103 23 83 262 792

32% 33% 34% 29% 17% 25% 23% 37%

Dissatisfied 1,921 1,638 1,463 174 91 182 679 1,24259% 59% 60% 50% 69% 56% 61% 58%

No opinion 298 214 141 73 18 61 178 1209% 8% 6% 21% 14% 19% 16% 6%


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Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916


41% 41% 41% 43% 36% 45% 41% 41% 42% 40% 41% 41% 42% 40% 42% 79% 52% 43% 29% 26% 25% 29%

Dissatisfied 1,526 743 782 441 656 429 580 809 136 398 390 450 289 887 638 64 285 121 22 348 220 46747% 47% 46% 42% 53% 44% 45% 47% 53% 43% 46% 50% 49% 45% 49% 16% 36% 46% 66% 64% 67% 51%

No opinion 412 193 220 165 140 107 191 210 12 157 110 87 58 296 116 20 93 28 2 56 28 18413% 12% 13% 16% 11% 11% 15% 12% 5% 17% 13% 10% 10% 15% 9% 5% 12% 11% 5% 10% 9% 20%


J3719


Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Satisfied 1,334 1,209 1,038 171 30 87 331 1,003

41% 44% 43% 49% 23% 27% 30% 47%

Dissatisfied 1,526 1,257 1,149 108 78 170 573 95347% 45% 47% 31% 59% 52% 51% 44%

No opinion 412 313 242 71 24 68 215 19813% 11% 10% 20% 18% 21% 19% 9%


J3719


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916


42% 51% 33% 42% 46% 35% 37% 45% 39% 42% 45% 37% 43% 41% 42% 32% 31% 42% 34% 80% 42% 32%

Dissatisfied 1,382 602 780 388 503 491 581 684 117 364 340 406 273 796 586 171 427 113 22 64 148 43942% 38% 46% 37% 41% 50% 45% 40% 46% 39% 40% 45% 46% 40% 45% 42% 54% 43% 66% 12% 45% 48%

No opinion 532 176 356 218 163 150 234 259 39 180 127 158 66 359 172 102 118 40 - 45 44 18316% 11% 21% 21% 13% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 15% 18% 11% 18% 13% 25% 15% 15% - 8% 13% 20%


J3719


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Satisfied 1,358 1,130 989 141 48 165 473 885

42% 41% 41% 40% 36% 51% 42% 41%

Dissatisfied 1,382 1,213 1,094 119 61 95 415 96742% 44% 45% 34% 46% 29% 37% 45%

No opinion 532 435 346 89 23 65 231 30116% 16% 14% 26% 17% 20% 21% 14%


J3719


Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Satisfied 953 511 442 390 322 240 382 491 80 310 248 210 184 565 387 96 264 108 26 134 74 250

29% 32% 26% 37% 26% 24% 29% 29% 31% 33% 29% 23% 31% 29% 30% 24% 34% 41% 79% 25% 23% 27%

Dissatisfied 1,341 672 669 393 568 380 501 743 97 330 356 428 227 837 503 187 282 84 4 269 188 32641% 42% 40% 37% 46% 39% 39% 43% 38% 35% 42% 47% 38% 42% 39% 47% 36% 32% 12% 49% 57% 36%

No opinion 979 403 576 270 346 363 414 487 77 291 241 264 183 568 410 118 241 69 3 141 67 33930% 25% 34% 26% 28% 37% 32% 28% 30% 31% 29% 29% 31% 29% 32% 29% 31% 27% 9% 26% 20% 37%


J3719


Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Satisfied 953 795 688 108 43 92 303 650

29% 29% 28% 31% 33% 28% 27% 30%

Dissatisfied 1,341 1,140 1,041 99 62 134 441 89941% 41% 43% 28% 48% 41% 39% 42%

No opinion 979 843 700 144 26 99 375 60430% 30% 29% 41% 20% 30% 33% 28%


J3719


Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Fianna Fail 402 211 191 106 144 151 135 237 30 93 121 107 81 228 173 402 - - - - - -

12% 13% 11% 10% 12% 15% 10% 14% 12% 10% 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 787 328 459 223 265 299 379 311 97 185 201 211 190 415 372 - 787 - - - - -24% 21% 27% 21% 21% 30% 29% 18% 38% 20% 24% 23% 32% 21% 29% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 262 119 142 101 103 58 123 133 5 106 71 56 29 210 51 - - 262 - - - -8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 6% 9% 8% 2% 11% 8% 6% 5% 11% 4% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 33 19 14 14 14 4 17 16 - 13 9 11 - 22 11 - - - 33 - - -1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 544 301 243 183 204 158 143 373 29 132 165 167 80 344 200 - - - - 544 - -17% 19% 14% 17% 16% 16% 11% 22% 11% 14% 20% 19% 13% 17% 15% - - - - 100% - -

Independent/Other 329 201 128 92 173 64 140 174 15 96 92 82 60 193 137 - - - - - 329 -10% 13% 8% 9% 14% 7% 11% 10% 6% 10% 11% 9% 10% 10% 11% - - - - - 100% -

Don’t know 742 340 402 288 258 196 302 383 57 261 160 205 117 457 285 - - - - - - 74223% 21% 24% 27% 21% 20% 23% 22% 22% 28% 19% 23% 20% 23% 22% - - - - - - 81%

Would not vote 173 66 108 46 74 53 59 94 21 47 26 64 37 102 72 - - - - - - 1735% 4% 6% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 8% 5% 3% 7% 6% 5% 6% - - - - - - 19%


J3719




Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Fianna Fail 402 362 324 38 15 24 112 289

12% 13% 13% 11% 12% 7% 10% 13%

Fine Gael 787 746 693 53 19 23 176 61124% 27% 29% 15% 14% 7% 16% 28%

Labour 262 249 217 32 7 6 56 2068% 9% 9% 9% 5% 2% 5% 10%

Green Party 33 25 23 2 - 4 12 211% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 544 479 418 61 21 41 241 30317% 17% 17% 18% 16% 12% 22% 14%

Independent/Other 329 296 268 28 2 31 100 22910% 11% 11% 8% 2% 10% 9% 11%

Don’t know 742 568 461 107 44 104 317 42523% 20% 19% 31% 34% 32% 28% 20%

Would not vote 173 55 25 30 24 92 105 695% 2% 1% 9% 18% 28% 9% 3%


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided

Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 2,357 1,180 1,177 719 903 734 937 1,243 177 624 659 633 440 1,412 944 402 787 262 33 544 329 -

Unweighted Total 688 354 334 210 266 212 275 362 51 183 185 188 132 450 238 113 237 76 13 140 109 -Fianna Fail 402 211 191 106 144 151 135 237 30 93 121 107 81 228 173 402 - - - - - -

17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 21% 14% 19% 17% 15% 18% 17% 18% 16% 18% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 787 328 459 223 265 299 379 311 97 185 201 211 190 415 372 - 787 - - - - -33% 28% 39% 31% 29% 41% 40% 25% 55% 30% 30% 33% 43% 29% 39% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 262 119 142 101 103 58 123 133 5 106 71 56 29 210 51 - - 262 - - - -11% 10% 12% 14% 11% 8% 13% 11% 3% 17% 11% 9% 7% 15% 5% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 33 19 14 14 14 4 17 16 - 13 9 11 - 22 11 - - - 33 - - -1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% - 2% 1% 2% - 2% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 544 301 243 183 204 158 143 373 29 132 165 167 80 344 200 - - - - 544 - -23% 26% 21% 25% 23% 21% 15% 30% 16% 21% 25% 26% 18% 24% 21% - - - - 100% - -



J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided

Total Likelihood Treaty Understanding

Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 2,357 2,156 1,942 213 63 130 697 1,660


17% 17% 17% 18% 24% 19% 16% 17%

Fine Gael 787 746 693 53 19 23 176 61133% 35% 36% 25% 29% 18% 25% 37%

Labour 262 249 217 32 7 6 56 20611% 12% 11% 15% 11% 5% 8% 12%

Green Party 33 25 23 2 - 4 12 211% 1% 1% 1% - 3% 2% 1%

Sinn Fein 544 479 418 61 21 41 241 30323% 22% 22% 29% 32% 31% 35% 18%



J3719


Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 1,941 1,019 921 514 780 646 785 1,027 128 539 510 526 366 1,154 786 316 638 270 31 334 352 -

Unweighted Total 566 300 266 145 232 189 233 293 40 153 145 158 110 366 200 88 207 65 10 105 91 -Fianna Fail 316 165 151 60 120 136 103 190 23 85 80 90 61 186 130 316 - - - - - -

16% 16% 16% 12% 15% 21% 13% 18% 18% 16% 16% 17% 17% 16% 16% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 638 266 371 163 208 267 300 260 78 147 162 172 157 340 297 - 638 - - - - -33% 26% 40% 32% 27% 41% 38% 25% 61% 27% 32% 33% 43% 29% 38% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 270 129 142 87 122 61 122 142 6 99 77 57 38 206 64 - - 270 - - - -14% 13% 15% 17% 16% 9% 15% 14% 5% 18% 15% 11% 10% 18% 8% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 31 20 11 7 20 4 24 6 - 10 8 12 - 15 16 - - - 31 - - -2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% - 2% 2% 2% - 1% 2% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 334 201 133 82 137 114 87 230 17 69 93 120 51 191 142 - - - - 334 - -17% 20% 14% 16% 18% 18% 11% 22% 14% 13% 18% 23% 14% 17% 18% - - - - 100% - -



J3719


Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 1,941 1,941 1,941 - - - 483 1,458

Unweighted Total 566 566 566 - - - 145 421Fianna Fail 316 316 316 - - - 66 250

16% 16% 16% - - - 14% 17%

Fine Gael 638 638 638 - - - 129 50933% 33% 33% - - - 27% 35%

Labour 270 270 270 - - - 52 21914% 14% 14% - - - 11% 15%

Green Party 31 31 31 - - - 13 172% 2% 2% - - - 3% 1%

Sinn Fein 334 334 334 - - - 130 20417% 17% 17% - - - 27% 14%

Independent/Other 352 352 352 - - - 93 25918% 18% 18% - - - 19% 18%

J3719


Q9 As you are probably aware, on May 31st next a referendum will be held in relation to the European Union Fiscal Treaty – otherwise known as the Fiscal Compact Treaty. In the referendum, people will be asked to vote either in favour of or against the Treaty. Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the European Union Fiscal Treaty, or no against the European Union Fiscal Treaty? PLEASE READ OUT



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Will vote yes in favour of the treaty

1,489 789 700 426 572 491 646 694 149 412 386 395 296 878 611 246 591 170 15 110 70 28745% 50% 41% 40% 46% 50% 50% 40% 59% 44% 46% 44% 50% 45% 47% 61% 75% 65% 45% 20% 21% 31%

Will vote no against the treaty 975 471 503 319 373 282 301 618 56 312 256 272 134 597 378 76 68 55 14 325 158 27930% 30% 30% 30% 30% 29% 23% 36% 22% 33% 30% 30% 23% 30% 29% 19% 9% 21% 43% 60% 48% 30%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

662 259 403 229 262 170 278 349 35 171 171 177 143 413 249 71 117 23 4 102 94 25120% 16% 24% 22% 21% 17% 21% 20% 14% 18% 20% 20% 24% 21% 19% 18% 15% 9% 12% 19% 28% 27%

Will not vote (DO NOT READ OUT)

147 67 80 79 28 40 73 59 15 37 31 58 21 84 63 9 11 13 - 7 8 984% 4% 5% 8% 2% 4% 6% 3% 6% 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% 2% 1% 5% - 1% 2% 11%

J3719


Q9 As you are probably aware, on May 31st next a referendum will be held in relation to the European Union Fiscal Treaty – otherwise known as the Fiscal Compact Treaty. In the referendum, people will be asked to vote either in favour of or against the Treaty. Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the European Union Fiscal Treaty, or no against the European Union Fiscal Treaty? PLEASE READ OUT


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Will vote yes in favour of the treaty

1,489 1,363 1,222 142 30 95 317 1,17245% 49% 50% 40% 23% 29% 28% 54%

Will vote no against the treaty 975 818 735 83 55 88 302 67230% 29% 30% 24% 42% 27% 27% 31%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

662 541 425 116 39 68 399 26320% 19% 18% 33% 30% 21% 36% 12%

Will not vote (DO NOT READ OUT)

147 56 47 9 7 74 101 464% 2% 2% 3% 5% 23% 9% 2%

J3719


Q10 And thinking of the forthcoming European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the European Union Fiscal Treaty referendum is about? PLEASE READ OUT



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 2451 Do not understand it at all 528 216 313 213 172 143 179 326 24 155 128 169 76 343 186 45 45 19 - 142 47 230

16% 14% 19% 20% 14% 15% 14% 19% 9% 17% 15% 19% 13% 17% 14% 11% 6% 7% - 26% 14% 25%

2 Do not understand it particularly well

590 235 355 194 247 150 209 308 73 133 162 182 113 338 252 67 131 37 12 99 53 19118% 15% 21% 18% 20% 15% 16% 18% 29% 14% 19% 20% 19% 17% 19% 17% 17% 14% 35% 18% 16% 21%

3 Understand it to some extent 1,225 613 612 447 444 334 499 628 98 414 294 270 247 791 433 148 360 108 13 156 141 29737% 39% 36% 42% 36% 34% 38% 36% 39% 44% 35% 30% 42% 40% 33% 37% 46% 41% 40% 29% 43% 32%

4 Understand it quite well 665 403 261 179 212 273 291 316 58 159 187 226 92 350 315 95 198 62 5 78 74 15320% 25% 15% 17% 17% 28% 22% 18% 23% 17% 22% 25% 16% 18% 24% 24% 25% 24% 15% 14% 22% 17%

5 Understand it very well 264 119 145 20 160 83 120 143 1 70 73 56 65 149 115 46 53 36 3 68 14 448% 8% 9% 2% 13% 8% 9% 8% 0% 8% 9% 6% 11% 8% 9% 11% 7% 14% 9% 13% 4% 5%

Mean 2.86 2.98 2.75 2.62 2.95 3.01 2.97 2.79 2.76 2.85 2.90 2.80 2.93 2.81 2.94 3.07 3.10 3.22 2.98 2.69 2.86 2.55

J3719


Q10 And thinking of the forthcoming European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the European Union Fiscal Treaty referendum is about? PLEASE READ OUT


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 6141 Do not understand it at all 528 372 267 105 37 115 528 -

16% 13% 11% 30% 28% 35% 47% -

2 Do not understand it particularly well

590 470 377 93 31 63 590 -18% 17% 16% 27% 23% 19% 53% -

3 Understand it to some extent 1,225 1,078 962 117 36 104 - 1,22537% 39% 40% 33% 27% 32% - 57%

4 Understand it quite well 665 608 582 26 21 36 - 66520% 22% 24% 7% 16% 11% - 31%

5 Understand it very well 264 250 241 9 7 7 - 2648% 9% 10% 3% 5% 2% - 12%

Mean 2.86 2.96 3.06 2.26 2.46 2.25 1.53 3.55


J3719


Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Would definitely vote 2,429 1,223 1,206 645 948 836 1,004 1,253 172 663 641 662 462 1,413 1,016 324 693 217 23 418 268 487

74% 77% 71% 61% 77% 85% 77% 73% 68% 71% 76% 73% 78% 72% 78% 81% 88% 83% 69% 77% 81% 53%

Would probably vote 350 123 227 151 136 64 130 172 48 96 79 108 66 227 123 38 53 32 2 61 28 13711% 8% 13% 14% 11% 6% 10% 10% 19% 10% 9% 12% 11% 11% 9% 9% 7% 12% 6% 11% 9% 15%

Might/might not vote 131 40 91 61 45 26 32 81 19 35 37 47 13 72 59 15 19 7 - 21 2 684% 3% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5% 8% 4% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 4% 2% 3% - 4% 1% 7%

Would probably not vote 194 107 87 103 67 23 86 108 - 75 61 29 29 148 46 16 11 6 4 33 25 996% 7% 5% 10% 5% 2% 7% 6% - 8% 7% 3% 5% 8% 3% 4% 1% 2% 12% 6% 8% 11%

Would definitely not vote 131 78 53 63 37 32 43 84 4 53 22 43 13 95 36 8 12 - - 8 6 974% 5% 3% 6% 3% 3% 3% 5% 2% 6% 3% 5% 2% 5% 3% 2% 2% - - 1% 2% 11%

Don’t know 36 14 22 32 2 3 3 24 10 10 4 13 10 16 20 - - - 4 4 - 291% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% - - - 12% 1% - 3%

Mean 4.47 4.47 4.47 4.19 4.53 4.68 4.52 4.42 4.57 4.35 4.50 4.48 4.60 4.39 4.59 4.63 4.78 4.75 4.51 4.57 4.60 3.92


J3719


Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted Total 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Would definitely vote 2,429 2,429 2,429 - - - 644 1,785

74% 87% 100% - - - 58% 83%

Would probably vote 350 350 - 350 - - 198 15211% 13% - 100% - - 18% 7%

Might/might not vote 131 - - - 131 - 68 634% - - - 100% - 6% 3%

Would probably not vote 194 - - - - 194 106 886% - - - - 60% 10% 4%

Would definitely not vote 131 - - - - 131 72 604% - - - - 40% 6% 3%

Don’t know 36 - - - - - 30 71% - - - - - 3% 0%

Mean 4.47 4.87 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.60 4.14 4.64


J3719


Q12 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted Total 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Fianna Fail 465 283 182 94 180 191 146 284 34 72 176 126 90 211 254 255 29 5 3 47 17 109

14% 18% 11% 9% 15% 19% 11% 17% 13% 8% 21% 14% 15% 11% 20% 64% 4% 2% 9% 9% 5% 12%

Fine Gael 1,040 445 595 270 381 389 510 428 102 226 244 338 231 573 467 25 593 18 1 93 80 22932% 28% 35% 26% 31% 40% 39% 25% 40% 24% 29% 38% 39% 29% 36% 6% 75% 7% 4% 17% 24% 25%

Labour 378 227 151 110 172 96 145 219 14 141 112 92 32 293 85 18 25 172 2 50 28 8412% 14% 9% 10% 14% 10% 11% 13% 6% 15% 13% 10% 5% 15% 7% 4% 3% 66% 5% 9% 8% 9%

Green Party 27 18 9 4 15 9 26 1 - 8 8 4 8 10 17 - 3 3 10 - 4 81% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% - 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% - 0% 1% 31% - 1% 1%

Workers Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Sinn Fein 359 199 160 118 157 84 101 235 22 95 84 89 91 219 140 13 2 - 11 256 32 4611% 13% 9% 11% 13% 9% 8% 14% 9% 10% 10% 10% 15% 11% 11% 3% 0% - 33% 47% 10% 5%

Independent/Other 212 108 104 62 107 43 81 115 15 65 33 56 57 126 85 10 16 20 - 3 127 356% 7% 6% 6% 9% 4% 6% 7% 6% 7% 4% 6% 10% 6% 7% 3% 2% 8% - 1% 39% 4%

Don’t know 418 129 289 151 139 128 140 239 40 152 107 115 44 257 161 54 63 28 - 40 22 21013% 8% 17% 14% 11% 13% 11% 14% 16% 16% 13% 13% 7% 13% 12% 14% 8% 11% - 7% 7% 23%

Did not vote 374 177 197 245 85 44 148 199 27 172 80 81 40 282 92 26 58 16 6 56 19 19411% 11% 12% 23% 7% 4% 11% 12% 11% 19% 10% 9% 7% 14% 7% 6% 7% 6% 17% 10% 6% 21%


J3719




Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153


14% 15% 16% 5% 12% 11% 12% 15%

Fine Gael 1,040 949 861 88 35 56 323 71732% 34% 35% 25% 27% 17% 29% 33%

Labour 378 336 306 30 18 20 110 26812% 12% 13% 9% 14% 6% 10% 12%

Green Party 27 27 27 - - - 8 201% 1% 1% - - - 1% 1%

Workers Party - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -

Sinn Fein 359 301 276 24 2 50 103 25611% 11% 11% 7% 2% 15% 9% 12%


Don’t know 418 361 266 95 24 26 180 23813% 13% 11% 27% 18% 8% 16% 11%

Did not vote 374 198 113 84 35 125 192 18211% 7% 5% 24% 27% 39% 17% 8%


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll VotersExcluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 2,480 1,280 1,200 657 1,012 811 1,010 1,282 188 607 657 706 509 1,432 1,048 321 666 218 27 449 288 511

Unweighted Total 727 372 355 185 304 238 292 381 54 186 182 207 152 463 264 91 208 65 10 113 93 147Fianna Fail 465 283 182 94 180 191 146 284 34 72 176 126 90 211 254 255 29 5 3 47 17 109

19% 22% 15% 14% 18% 24% 14% 22% 18% 12% 27% 18% 18% 15% 24% 79% 4% 2% 11% 11% 6% 21%

Fine Gael 1,040 445 595 270 381 389 510 428 102 226 244 338 231 573 467 25 593 18 1 93 80 22942% 35% 50% 41% 38% 48% 50% 33% 54% 37% 37% 48% 45% 40% 45% 8% 89% 8% 5% 21% 28% 45%

Labour 378 227 151 110 172 96 145 219 14 141 112 92 32 293 85 18 25 172 2 50 28 8415% 18% 13% 17% 17% 12% 14% 17% 8% 23% 17% 13% 6% 20% 8% 5% 4% 79% 6% 11% 10% 17%

Green Party 27 18 9 4 15 9 26 1 - 8 8 4 8 10 17 - 3 3 10 - 4 81% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% - 0% 1% 38% - 1% 1%

Workers Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Sinn Fein 359 199 160 118 157 84 101 235 22 95 84 89 91 219 140 13 2 - 11 256 32 4614% 16% 13% 18% 15% 10% 10% 18% 12% 16% 13% 13% 18% 15% 13% 4% 0% - 40% 57% 11% 9%

Independent/Other 212 108 104 62 107 43 81 115 15 65 33 56 57 126 85 10 16 20 - 3 127 359% 8% 9% 9% 11% 5% 8% 9% 8% 11% 5% 8% 11% 9% 8% 3% 2% 9% - 1% 44% 7%


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll VotersExcluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted Total 2,480 2,220 2,050 171 73 174 747 1,733


19% 19% 19% 10% 22% 21% 18% 19%

Fine Gael 1,040 949 861 88 35 56 323 71742% 43% 42% 51% 48% 32% 43% 41%

Labour 378 336 306 30 18 20 110 26815% 15% 15% 18% 25% 11% 15% 15%

Green Party 27 27 27 - - - 8 201% 1% 1% - - - 1% 1%

Workers Party - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -

Sinn Fein 359 301 276 24 2 50 103 25614% 14% 13% 14% 3% 29% 14% 15%



J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245GenderMale 1,586 1,586 - 525 607 453 575 902 109 460 430 427 269 925 661 211 328 119 19 301 201 406

48% 100% - 50% 49% 46% 44% 52% 43% 49% 51% 47% 45% 47% 51% 53% 42% 46% 58% 55% 61% 44%

Female 1,686 - 1,686 528 628 530 723 818 145 472 415 475 325 1,046 640 191 459 142 14 243 128 50952% - 100% 50% 51% 54% 56% 48% 57% 51% 49% 53% 55% 53% 49% 47% 58% 54% 42% 45% 39% 56%

Age18-34 1,053 525 528 1,053 - - 475 529 49 408 274 223 149 740 313 106 223 101 14 183 92 334

32% 33% 31% 100% - - 37% 31% 19% 44% 32% 25% 25% 38% 24% 27% 28% 38% 44% 34% 28% 37%

35-54 1,236 607 628 - 1,236 - 549 588 99 289 352 359 235 684 551 144 265 103 14 204 173 33238% 38% 37% - 100% - 42% 34% 39% 31% 42% 40% 40% 35% 42% 36% 34% 39% 43% 37% 53% 36%

55+ 983 453 530 - - 983 274 604 105 235 218 321 210 547 436 151 299 58 4 158 64 24930% 29% 31% - - 100% 21% 35% 41% 25% 26% 36% 35% 28% 34% 38% 38% 22% 13% 29% 19% 27%

ClassABC1 1,298 575 723 475 549 274 1,298 - - 488 311 271 228 912 386 135 379 123 17 143 140 361

40% 36% 43% 45% 44% 28% 100% - - 52% 37% 30% 38% 46% 30% 34% 48% 47% 52% 26% 43% 39%

C2DE 1,720 902 818 529 588 604 - 1,720 - 442 476 507 296 1,042 678 237 311 133 16 373 174 47753% 57% 49% 50% 48% 61% - 100% - 47% 56% 56% 50% 53% 52% 59% 39% 51% 48% 68% 53% 52%

F 254 109 145 49 99 105 - - 254 2 58 124 69 17 237 30 97 5 - 29 15 788% 7% 9% 5% 8% 11% - - 100% 0% 7% 14% 12% 1% 18% 7% 12% 2% - 5% 5% 8%

RegionDublin 932 460 472 408 289 235 488 442 2 932 - - - 932 - 93 185 106 13 132 96 307

28% 29% 28% 39% 23% 24% 38% 26% 1% 100% - - - 47% - 23% 24% 41% 39% 24% 29% 34%

Lein-ster 844 430 415 274 352 218 311 476 58 - 844 - - 413 432 121 201 71 9 165 92 18626% 27% 25% 26% 29% 22% 24% 28% 23% - 100% - - 21% 33% 30% 25% 27% 29% 30% 28% 20%

Mun-ster 902 427 475 223 359 321 271 507 124 - - 902 - 389 513 107 211 56 11 167 82 26928% 27% 28% 21% 29% 33% 21% 29% 49% - - 100% - 20% 39% 27% 27% 21% 32% 31% 25% 29%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245Conn/Ulster 594 269 325 149 235 210 228 296 69 - - - 594 238 356 81 190 29 - 80 60 154

18% 17% 19% 14% 19% 21% 18% 17% 27% - - - 100% 12% 27% 20% 24% 11% - 15% 18% 17%

AreaUrban 1,971 925 1,046 740 684 547 912 1,042 17 932 413 389 238 1,971 - 228 415 210 22 344 193 559

60% 58% 62% 70% 55% 56% 70% 61% 7% 100% 49% 43% 40% 100% - 57% 53% 80% 67% 63% 58% 61%

Rural 1,301 661 640 313 551 436 386 678 237 - 432 513 356 - 1,301 173 372 51 11 200 137 35640% 42% 38% 30% 45% 44% 30% 39% 93% - 51% 57% 60% - 100% 43% 47% 20% 33% 37% 42% 39%

Party SupportFianna Fail 402 211 191 106 144 151 135 237 30 93 121 107 81 228 173 402 - - - - - -

12% 13% 11% 10% 12% 15% 10% 14% 12% 10% 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 787 328 459 223 265 299 379 311 97 185 201 211 190 415 372 - 787 - - - - -24% 21% 27% 21% 21% 30% 29% 18% 38% 20% 24% 23% 32% 21% 29% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 262 119 142 101 103 58 123 133 5 106 71 56 29 210 51 - - 262 - - - -8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 6% 9% 8% 2% 11% 8% 6% 5% 11% 4% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 33 19 14 14 14 4 17 16 - 13 9 11 - 22 11 - - - 33 - - -1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 544 301 243 183 204 158 143 373 29 132 165 167 80 344 200 - - - - 544 - -17% 19% 14% 17% 16% 16% 11% 22% 11% 14% 20% 19% 13% 17% 15% - - - - 100% - -

Independent/Others 329 201 128 92 173 64 140 174 15 96 92 82 60 193 137 - - - - - 329 -10% 13% 8% 9% 14% 7% 11% 10% 6% 10% 11% 9% 10% 10% 11% - - - - - 100% -

Would not/Don't Know 916 406 509 334 332 249 361 477 78 307 186 269 154 559 356 - - - - - - 91628% 26% 30% 32% 27% 25% 28% 28% 31% 33% 22% 30% 26% 28% 27% - - - - - - 100%

LikelihoodWould vote 2,779 1,346 1,433 795 1,084 899 1,134 1,425 220 759 721 770 528 1,640 1,139 362 746 249 25 479 296 623

86% 86% 86% 78% 88% 92% 88% 84% 90% 82% 86% 87% 91% 84% 89% 90% 95% 95% 86% 89% 90% 70%

Might/might not 131 40 91 61 45 26 32 81 19 35 37 47 13 72 59 15 19 7 - 21 2 684% 3% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5% 8% 4% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 4% 2% 3% - 4% 1% 8%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,272 1,586 1,686 1,053 1,236 983 1,298 1,720 254 932 844 902 594 1,971 1,301 402 787 262 33 544 329 916

Unweighted 933 456 477 292 360 281 374 492 67 262 237 257 177 618 315 113 237 76 13 140 109 245

Would not Vote 325 185 140 166 104 55 129 192 4 128 83 72 42 244 82 24 23 6 4 41 31 19610% 12% 8% 16% 8% 6% 10% 11% 2% 14% 10% 8% 7% 12% 6% 6% 3% 2% 14% 8% 10% 22%

Mean 4.47 4.47 4.47 4.19 4.53 4.68 4.52 4.42 4.57 4.35 4.50 4.48 4.60 4.39 4.59 4.63 4.78 4.75 4.51 4.57 4.60 3.92Marital StatusSingle 1,055 624 431 636 296 123 420 579 56 379 254 251 171 718 337 137 242 110 14 149 114 288

32% 39% 26% 60% 24% 13% 32% 34% 22% 41% 30% 28% 29% 36% 26% 34% 31% 42% 42% 27% 35% 31%

Married 1,608 715 893 191 783 634 679 756 173 324 445 516 323 798 810 159 432 115 11 260 172 45849% 45% 53% 18% 63% 64% 52% 44% 68% 35% 53% 57% 54% 40% 62% 40% 55% 44% 34% 48% 52% 50%

Co-habiting 264 96 168 194 61 10 120 139 6 114 71 55 24 212 52 31 54 21 8 40 28 838% 6% 10% 18% 5% 1% 9% 8% 2% 12% 8% 6% 4% 11% 4% 8% 7% 8% 24% 7% 9% 9%

Widowed 188 62 126 14 - 174 15 164 9 84 29 43 33 137 51 38 40 14 - 44 3 486% 4% 7% 1% - 18% 1% 10% 4% 9% 3% 5% 6% 7% 4% 10% 5% 5% - 8% 1% 5%

Divorced/seperated 150 85 65 16 92 42 60 79 11 30 43 38 39 100 51 36 16 1 - 52 11 355% 5% 4% 2% 7% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 5% 4% 7% 5% 4% 9% 2% 1% - 9% 3% 4%

Refused 7 4 3 4 3 - 4 3 - 1 3 - 2 7 - - 4 - - - - 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% 0% - - 0% - - - - 0%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614GenderMale 1,586 1,346 1,223 123 40 185 451 1,135

48% 48% 50% 35% 30% 57% 40% 53%

Female 1,686 1,433 1,206 227 91 140 668 1,01852% 52% 50% 65% 70% 43% 60% 47%

Age18-34 1,053 795 645 151 61 166 407 647

32% 29% 27% 43% 46% 51% 36% 30%

35-54 1,236 1,084 948 136 45 104 419 81638% 39% 39% 39% 34% 32% 37% 38%

55+ 983 899 836 64 26 55 292 69130% 32% 34% 18% 20% 17% 26% 32%

ClassABC1 1,298 1,134 1,004 130 32 129 388 910

40% 41% 41% 37% 24% 40% 35% 42%

C2DE 1,720 1,425 1,253 172 81 192 634 1,08753% 51% 52% 49% 61% 59% 57% 50%

F 254 220 172 48 19 4 97 1578% 8% 7% 14% 15% 1% 9% 7%

RegionDublin 932 759 663 96 35 128 289 643

28% 27% 27% 27% 26% 39% 26% 30%

Lein-ster 844 721 641 79 37 83 291 55426% 26% 26% 23% 28% 26% 26% 26%

Mun-ster 902 770 662 108 47 72 350 55228% 28% 27% 31% 36% 22% 31% 26%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614Conn/Ulster 594 528 462 66 13 42 189 404

18% 19% 19% 19% 10% 13% 17% 19%

AreaUrban 1,971 1,640 1,413 227 72 244 681 1,290

60% 59% 58% 65% 55% 75% 61% 60%

Rural 1,301 1,139 1,016 123 59 82 438 86340% 41% 42% 35% 45% 25% 39% 40%

Party SupportFianna Fail 402 362 324 38 15 24 112 289

12% 13% 13% 11% 12% 7% 10% 13%

Fine Gael 787 746 693 53 19 23 176 61124% 27% 29% 15% 14% 7% 16% 28%

Labour 262 249 217 32 7 6 56 2068% 9% 9% 9% 5% 2% 5% 10%

Green Party 33 25 23 2 - 4 12 211% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 544 479 418 61 21 41 241 30317% 17% 17% 18% 16% 12% 22% 14%

Independent/Others 329 296 268 28 2 31 100 22910% 11% 11% 8% 2% 10% 9% 11%

Would not/Don't Know 916 623 487 137 68 196 422 49428% 22% 20% 39% 52% 60% 38% 23%

LikelihoodWould vote 2,779 2,779 2,429 350 - - 843 1,936

86% 100% 100% 100% - - 77% 90%

Might/might not 131 - - - 131 - 68 634% - - - 100% - 6% 3%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted 3,272 2,779 2,429 350 131 325 1,119 2,153

Unweighted 933 798 693 105 41 87 319 614

Would not Vote 325 - - - - 325 178 14710% - - - - 100% 16% 7%

Mean 4.47 4.87 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.60 4.14 4.64Marital StatusSingle 1,055 822 668 153 58 159 393 662

32% 30% 28% 44% 44% 49% 35% 31%

Married 1,608 1,428 1,277 152 54 116 526 1,08149% 51% 53% 43% 41% 36% 47% 50%

Co-habiting 264 203 186 16 15 37 84 1808% 7% 8% 5% 11% 11% 8% 8%

Widowed 188 174 155 19 4 10 57 1306% 6% 6% 6% 3% 3% 5% 6%

Divorced/seperated 150 148 139 9 2 - 53 975% 5% 6% 3% 2% - 5% 5%

Refused 7 4 4 - - 3 5 20% 0% 0% - - 1% 0% 0%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,421 1,677 1,744 1,169 1,261 991 1,372 1,795 254 985 870 948 618 2,094 1,327 418 791 264 37 552 342 1,017

Unweighted 973 475 498 322 366 285 394 512 67 278 244 267 184 650 323 115 239 77 14 142 111 275GenderMale 1,677 1,677 - 597 624 455 614 955 109 492 448 458 280 1,003 673 227 328 121 24 309 212 456

49% 100% - 51% 50% 46% 45% 53% 43% 50% 51% 48% 45% 48% 51% 54% 41% 46% 63% 56% 62% 45%

Female 1,744 - 1,744 572 637 535 758 840 145 494 422 490 338 1,090 654 191 463 142 14 243 130 56151% - 100% 49% 50% 54% 55% 47% 57% 50% 49% 52% 55% 52% 49% 46% 59% 54% 37% 44% 38% 55%

Age18-34 1,169 597 572 1,169 - - 539 580 49 452 300 250 167 852 317 112 224 101 19 186 104 422

34% 36% 33% 100% - - 39% 32% 19% 46% 34% 26% 27% 41% 24% 27% 28% 38% 51% 34% 31% 42%

35-54 1,261 624 637 - 1,261 - 558 604 99 296 352 373 240 691 570 155 267 105 14 208 173 33837% 37% 37% - 100% - 41% 34% 39% 30% 41% 39% 39% 33% 43% 37% 34% 40% 38% 38% 51% 33%

55+ 991 455 535 - - 991 275 610 105 237 218 325 211 550 441 151 299 58 4 158 64 25729% 27% 31% - - 100% 20% 34% 41% 24% 25% 34% 34% 26% 33% 36% 38% 22% 12% 29% 19% 25%

ClassABC1 1,372 614 758 539 558 275 1,372 - - 516 321 288 247 980 392 135 383 125 17 147 142 423

40% 37% 43% 46% 44% 28% 100% - - 52% 37% 30% 40% 47% 30% 32% 48% 47% 46% 27% 41% 42%

C2DE 1,795 955 840 580 604 610 - 1,795 - 466 491 536 301 1,096 699 253 311 133 20 376 185 51652% 57% 48% 50% 48% 62% - 100% - 47% 56% 57% 49% 52% 53% 61% 39% 51% 54% 68% 54% 51%

F 254 109 145 49 99 105 - - 254 2 58 124 69 17 237 30 97 5 - 29 15 787% 6% 8% 4% 8% 11% - - 100% 0% 7% 13% 11% 1% 18% 7% 12% 2% - 5% 4% 8%

RegionDublin 985 492 494 452 296 237 516 466 2 985 - - - 985 - 98 188 106 13 136 108 336

29% 29% 28% 39% 23% 24% 38% 26% 1% 100% - - - 47% - 23% 24% 40% 34% 25% 32% 33%

Lein-ster 870 448 422 300 352 218 321 491 58 - 870 - - 435 435 121 202 71 14 165 92 20525% 27% 24% 26% 28% 22% 23% 27% 23% - 100% - - 21% 33% 29% 26% 27% 38% 30% 27% 20%

Mun-ster 948 458 490 250 373 325 288 536 124 - - 948 - 417 531 117 211 56 11 171 82 30028% 27% 28% 21% 30% 33% 21% 30% 49% - - 100% - 20% 40% 28% 27% 21% 28% 31% 24% 30%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,421 1,677 1,744 1,169 1,261 991 1,372 1,795 254 985 870 948 618 2,094 1,327 418 791 264 37 552 342 1,017

Unweighted 973 475 498 322 366 285 394 512 67 278 244 267 184 650 323 115 239 77 14 142 111 275Conn/Ulster 618 280 338 167 240 211 247 301 69 - - - 618 256 362 81 190 31 - 80 60 176

18% 17% 19% 14% 19% 21% 18% 17% 27% - - - 100% 12% 27% 19% 24% 12% - 14% 18% 17%

AreaUrban 2,094 1,003 1,090 852 691 550 980 1,096 17 985 435 417 256 2,094 - 234 419 210 27 352 205 647

61% 60% 63% 73% 55% 56% 71% 61% 7% 100% 50% 44% 41% 100% - 56% 53% 80% 71% 64% 60% 64%

Rural 1,327 673 654 317 570 441 392 699 237 - 435 531 362 - 1,327 184 372 53 11 200 137 37039% 40% 37% 27% 45% 44% 29% 39% 93% - 50% 56% 59% - 100% 44% 47% 20% 29% 36% 40% 36%

Party SupportFianna Fail 418 227 191 112 155 151 135 253 30 98 121 117 81 234 184 418 - - - - - -

12% 14% 11% 10% 12% 15% 10% 14% 12% 10% 14% 12% 13% 11% 14% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 791 328 463 224 267 299 383 311 97 188 202 211 190 419 372 - 791 - - - - -23% 20% 27% 19% 21% 30% 28% 17% 38% 19% 23% 22% 31% 20% 28% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 264 121 142 101 105 58 125 133 5 106 71 56 31 210 53 - - 264 - - - -8% 7% 8% 9% 8% 6% 9% 7% 2% 11% 8% 6% 5% 10% 4% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 37 24 14 19 14 4 17 20 - 13 14 11 - 27 11 - - - 37 - - -1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% - 1% 2% 1% - 1% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 552 309 243 186 208 158 147 376 29 136 165 171 80 352 200 - - - - 552 - -16% 18% 14% 16% 17% 16% 11% 21% 11% 14% 19% 18% 13% 17% 15% - - - - 100% - -

Independent/Others 342 212 130 104 173 64 142 185 15 108 92 82 60 205 137 - - - - - 342 -10% 13% 7% 9% 14% 6% 10% 10% 6% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10% 10% - - - - - 100% -

Would not/Don't Know 1,017 456 561 422 338 257 423 516 78 336 205 300 176 647 370 - - - - - - 1,01730% 27% 32% 36% 27% 26% 31% 29% 31% 34% 24% 32% 28% 31% 28% - - - - - - 100%

LikelihoodWould vote 2,834 1,387 1,447 836 1,097 901 1,150 1,463 220 776 736 792 530 1,680 1,154 373 747 251 25 479 308 651

84% 83% 84% 74% 88% 91% 84% 83% 90% 80% 85% 85% 88% 81% 89% 89% 94% 95% 74% 87% 90% 67%

Might/might not 159 55 104 84 49 26 53 87 19 43 43 47 26 99 59 15 19 7 5 25 2 875% 3% 6% 7% 4% 3% 4% 5% 8% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 2% 3% 14% 5% 1% 9%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,421 1,677 1,744 1,169 1,261 991 1,372 1,795 254 985 870 948 618 2,094 1,327 418 791 264 37 552 342 1,017

Unweighted 973 475 498 322 366 285 394 512 67 278 244 267 184 650 323 115 239 77 14 142 111 275

Would not Vote 382 221 161 214 107 61 162 216 4 153 88 94 48 294 88 30 26 6 4 44 31 24111% 13% 9% 19% 9% 6% 12% 12% 2% 16% 10% 10% 8% 14% 7% 7% 3% 2% 12% 8% 9% 25%

Mean 4.41 4.40 4.42 4.07 4.53 4.66 4.42 4.38 4.57 4.26 4.48 4.42 4.54 4.30 4.58 4.59 4.77 4.76 4.30 4.54 4.61 3.81Marital StatusSingle 1,131 671 460 709 298 123 462 613 56 405 269 270 186 791 340 137 244 112 18 149 127 343

33% 40% 26% 61% 24% 12% 34% 34% 22% 41% 31% 29% 30% 38% 26% 33% 31% 43% 49% 27% 37% 34%

Married 1,652 746 907 217 799 636 698 781 173 343 445 536 329 829 823 175 434 115 11 263 172 48148% 44% 52% 19% 63% 64% 51% 44% 68% 35% 51% 57% 53% 40% 62% 42% 55% 44% 30% 48% 50% 47%

Co-habiting 279 105 174 209 61 10 127 146 6 118 81 56 24 224 55 31 54 21 8 40 28 988% 6% 10% 18% 5% 1% 9% 8% 2% 12% 9% 6% 4% 11% 4% 7% 7% 8% 21% 7% 8% 10%

Widowed 192 62 130 14 - 179 15 168 9 84 29 46 34 138 54 38 40 14 - 44 3 526% 4% 7% 1% - 18% 1% 9% 4% 8% 3% 5% 6% 7% 4% 9% 5% 5% - 8% 1% 5%

Divorced/seperated 160 90 70 16 100 43 66 82 11 35 43 39 43 104 55 36 16 1 - 56 11 405% 5% 4% 1% 8% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 7% 5% 4% 9% 2% 1% - 10% 3% 4%

Refused 7 4 3 4 3 - 4 3 - 1 3 - 2 7 - - 4 - - - - 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% 0% - - 0% - - - - 0%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted 3,421 2,834 2,479 354 159 382 1,178 2,243

Unweighted 973 809 703 106 47 107 339 634GenderMale 1,677 1,387 1,260 127 55 221 486 1,191

49% 49% 51% 36% 35% 58% 41% 53%

Female 1,744 1,447 1,219 227 104 161 691 1,05351% 51% 49% 64% 65% 42% 59% 47%

Age18-34 1,169 836 681 155 84 214 457 712

34% 29% 27% 44% 53% 56% 39% 32%

35-54 1,261 1,097 961 136 49 107 427 83437% 39% 39% 38% 31% 28% 36% 37%

55+ 991 901 837 64 26 61 294 69729% 32% 34% 18% 16% 16% 25% 31%

ClassABC1 1,372 1,150 1,020 130 53 162 416 956

40% 41% 41% 37% 34% 42% 35% 43%

C2DE 1,795 1,463 1,287 176 87 216 664 1,13152% 52% 52% 50% 54% 56% 56% 50%

F 254 220 172 48 19 4 97 1577% 8% 7% 14% 12% 1% 8% 7%

RegionDublin 985 776 680 96 43 153 314 672

29% 27% 27% 27% 27% 40% 27% 30%

Lein-ster 870 736 656 79 43 88 294 57625% 26% 26% 22% 27% 23% 25% 26%

Mun-ster 948 792 679 113 47 94 367 58128% 28% 27% 32% 30% 24% 31% 26%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted 3,421 2,834 2,479 354 159 382 1,178 2,243

Unweighted 973 809 703 106 47 107 339 634Conn/Ulster 618 530 464 66 26 48 203 415

18% 19% 19% 19% 17% 13% 17% 19%

AreaUrban 2,094 1,680 1,449 231 99 294 735 1,359

61% 59% 58% 65% 63% 77% 62% 61%

Rural 1,327 1,154 1,030 123 59 88 443 88439% 41% 42% 35% 37% 23% 38% 39%

Party SupportFianna Fail 418 373 335 38 15 30 118 300

12% 13% 14% 11% 10% 8% 10% 13%

Fine Gael 791 747 694 53 19 26 178 61423% 26% 28% 15% 12% 7% 15% 27%

Labour 264 251 219 32 7 6 56 2088% 9% 9% 9% 4% 2% 5% 9%

Green Party 37 25 23 2 5 4 12 261% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 552 479 418 61 25 44 249 30316% 17% 17% 17% 16% 12% 21% 14%

Independent/Others 342 308 280 28 2 31 100 24110% 11% 11% 8% 1% 8% 9% 11%

Would not/Don't Know 1,017 651 510 141 87 241 466 55130% 23% 21% 40% 54% 63% 40% 25%

LikelihoodWould vote 2,834 2,834 2,479 354 - - 855 1,979

84% 100% 100% 100% - - 75% 89%

Might/might not 159 - - - 159 - 82 775% - - - 100% - 7% 3%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might

not

Wouldnot Vote

Don't Understand

Understand

Weighted 3,421 2,834 2,479 354 159 382 1,178 2,243

Unweighted 973 809 703 106 47 107 339 634

Would not Vote 382 - - - - 382 208 17411% - - - - 100% 18% 8%

Mean 4.41 4.87 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.55 4.05 4.59Marital StatusSingle 1,131 857 699 158 75 182 420 711

33% 30% 28% 45% 47% 48% 36% 32%

Married 1,652 1,439 1,287 152 59 141 549 1,10348% 51% 52% 43% 37% 37% 47% 49%

Co-habiting 279 210 194 16 15 41 84 1958% 7% 8% 5% 9% 11% 7% 9%

Widowed 192 174 155 19 4 14 57 1356% 6% 6% 5% 2% 4% 5% 6%

Divorced/seperated 160 150 141 9 7 - 62 975% 5% 6% 3% 4% - 5% 4%

Refused 7 4 4 - - 3 5 20% 0% 0% - - 1% 0% 0%

Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES POLL QUESTIONNAIRE – MAY 2012

Good Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling from

Behaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.

We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than 10

minutes to complete.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all

results will be shown in aggregate form and for quality control purposes this call may be

monitored by a supervisor.

ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the

Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job

as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his

job as Tanaiste?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job

as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

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Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job

as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job

as leader of The Green Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Would not vote 10

Q.8 As you are probably aware, on May 31st next a referendum will be held in relation to

the European Union Fiscal Treaty – otherwise known as the Fiscal Compact Treaty. In

the referendum, people will be asked to vote either in favour of or against the Treaty.

Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the European Union Fiscal Treaty, or no

against the European Union Fiscal Treaty?

Will vote yes in favour of the treaty 1

Will vote no against the treaty 2

Don’t know 3

Will not vote 4

Q.9 And thinking of the forthcoming European Union Fiscal Treaty Referendum. On a scale

of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at

all, how well do you feel you understand what the European Union Fiscal Treaty

referendum is about? PROBE TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Understand it

very well

Understand it

quite well

Understand it to

some extent

Do not

understand it

particularly well

Do not

understand it at

all

5 4 3 2 1

Q.10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1

Would probably vote 2

Might/might not vote 3

Would probably not vote 4

Would definitely not vote 5

Don’t know 6

Q.11 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last year’s General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Q.12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Yes, eligible 1

No – not eligible 2

Don’t know 3

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Did not vote 10

Q.13 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 3

Thank You

Sunday%20Times%20May%20Final%20Report

Documents

Transcript of Sunday%20Times%20May%20Final%20Report