Summer 2015 - Countrywide · Countrywide plc is the UK’s largest property services group,...
Transcript of Summer 2015 - Countrywide · Countrywide plc is the UK’s largest property services group,...
Towards a northern powerhouse
Summer 2015 42
4/5 www.countrywide.co.uk
Orum sites pore preiunt eos alicilit dusam
Contents“It seems in the modern knowledge economy businesses and entrepreneurial types want to flock together more than ever. To form clusters where they can learn from and spark off each other.” George Osborne, 2014
Since the early 2000s, the growth of the knowledge economy has proved a boon to many northern cities. For industry, the importance of clustering and location has increased significantly. The last 15 years have seen population losses substantially reversed. More people now live in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield than at any point during the last 30 years. While the term ‘northern powerhouse’ means different things to different people, investment in infrastructure has the potential to help northern cities further capitalise on emerging economic and social trends.
Countrywide plc is the UK’s largest property services group, operating the UK’s largest estate agency and lettings network of circa 1,400 branches across over 50 local high street brands. The group has a wide reaching scale with branches in locations from Stirling to Penzance.
Countrywide plc sells 1 in 11 houses in the UK and is the third largest mortgage distributor in the UK with over 10% share of the intermediary mortgage market. The Group is also the UK’s largest transactional conveyancing business by completions, the UK’s largest land and new homes agency and a leading provider of residential valuations and surveys in the UK.
As the UK’s largest integrated residential and commercial property services group, Countrywide plc has a unique perspective on the UK property market and is truly countrywide.
_ 04 | Countrywide plc’s market barometer
_ 06 | Birth of a northern powerhouse
_ 08 | A northern powerhouse in profile
_ 10 | Commuter corridors
_ 12 | The labour market
_ 13 | The housing market
About Countrywide plc:
Countrywide plc’s network of expertise helps more people move than any other business in the UK and is a leading provider of estate agency, lettings, mortgage services, land and new homes, auctions, surveying, conveyancing, corporate property management services and commercial property.
Countrywide plc’s award winning service has earned the business over 180 high profile awards in the last five year, with customers voting Countrywide the Best National Agency Group at the 2015 ESTA awards. Countrywide Surveying Services won the award for the Best Anti Fraud Service at the Mortgage Gazette Awards for three consecutive years – 2013, 2014 & 2015.
The northern powerhouse
4/5 www.countrywide.co.uk
The northern powerhouse Q2 2015
Market barometer: A question of supply and demand
The Countrywide barometer is based on supply and demand information generated from Countrywide plc’s circa 1,400 estate agency and letting branches. It provides a solid indicator of current market activity and future sentiment.
BUYERS TO SELLERS AND TENANTS TO LANDLORDS
NU
MB
ER
OF
BU
YE
RS
/TE
NA
NT
S
TO E
AC
H N
EW
IN
ST
RU
CT
ION
In common with most other northern housing markets, Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield and Leeds have all recovered more slowly compared to more affluent southern markets. House prices across all four cities remain below where they were in 2007, although prices in parts of more affluent South Manchester and North Leeds have now climbed back above 2007 levels. In city centre markets, the glut of new build apartments which built up in the run up to the downturn has for the most part been absorbed, giving developers renewed confidence.
The last 12 months have seen a lack of new stock coming to market which has underpinned price growth. Across all four cities, there are 19% fewer properties for sale than there were in June 2014. While some vendors chose to hold off until the result of the election was known, the election itself did not prove a significant barrier to activity. While it still remains early days, buyer sentiment has improved markedly in the weeks after the election. Without a significant uplift in the number of properties coming to the market, a scarcity of stock will drive price growth.
PRICES IN CHORLTON, SOUTH MANCHESTER ARE 11% ABOVE THEIR 2007 PEAK WHILE…
M21
S9…PRICES IN TINSLEY, EAST SHEFFIELD REMAIN 18% BELOW 2007 LEVELS
15
12
9
6
3
0
UK
Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield
20
11 |
Q2
20
11 |
Q1
20
11 |
Q3 20
11 |
Q4
20
12 |
Q1
20
10
| Q
4
20
08
| Q
1
20
08
| Q
2
20
08
| Q
3
20
08
| Q
4
20
09
| Q
1
20
09
| Q
3
20
09
| Q
2
20
09
| Q
4
20
10
| Q
1
20
10
| Q
2
20
10
| Q
3
20
13 |
Q1
20
13 |
Q2
20
13 |
Q3
20
13 |
Q4
20
14 |
Q1
20
14 |
Q2
20
14 |
Q3
20
14 |
Q4
20
15 |
Q1
20
15 |
Q2
20
12 |
Q2
20
12 |
Q3
20
12 |
Q4
20
11 |
Q1
20
11 |
Q2 2
011
| Q
3
20
11 |
Q4 2
012
| Q
1
20
10
| Q
4
20
08
| Q
1
20
08
| Q
2
20
08
| Q
3
20
08
| Q
4
20
09
| Q
1
20
09
| Q
2
20
09
| Q
3
20
10
| Q
1
20
10
| Q
2
20
10
| Q
3
20
09
| Q
4
20
13 |
Q1
20
13 |
Q2
20
13 |
Q3
20
13 |
Q4
20
14 |
Q1
20
14 |
Q2
20
14 |
Q3
20
14 |
Q4
20
15 |
Q1
20
15 |
Q2
20
12 |
Q2
20
12 |
Q3
20
12 |
Q4
7.5
7.2
6.7
7.3
6.1
6.06
.46.6
9.1
8.5
8.5 8.6
7.6
9.7
7.7
12.3
8.9
7.7 8
.1 8.4
10.1
8.4
9.1
9.6
8.4
9.9
9.2
4.9
4.6
424
.5 4.6
6.6
4.2
6.3
7.5
6.6 6.7 7.
1
7.0
5.3
8.4
8.1
7.6
3.9
3.8
3.83.94.1
6.46.56.6
7.2
4.2
7.7
5.7
7.1
6.1
5.7
7.1
www.countrywide.co.uk6/7
The northern powerhouse
The birth of a northern powerhouse
Victorian engineering still ties together northern cities today
Why a northern powerhouse?
Decade on decade population change
What is it?
The knowledge economy, that is creative, research, digital and high tech manufacturing industries, was the fastest growing sector of the UK’s economy over the last decade. In percentage terms, creative industries grew faster than in any other sector, a trend which the Government expects to continue. In the UK, growth of the knowledge economy has predominantly been a city based phenomenon, specifically in clusters on the fringe of expensive office markets. Over the same period of time, the UK’s cities have started growing again following 50 years of falling populations.
Since 2001, the growth of the knowledge economy has proved a boon to many northern cities. For industry the importance of clustering and location has increased in importance. The last 15 years have seen population losses substantially reversed. More people now live in the four northern cities together than at any point during the last 30 years. While the term ‘northern powerhouse’ means different things to different people, investment in transport infrastructure has the potential to help northern cities further capitalise on emerging economic and social trends.
Underpinning a northern powerhouse, and the focus of this report, are the transport connections which link the four cities together. In March 2015 the government launched their northern transport strategy. The report sets out desirable travel times between Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield. Improving these connections, including reducing journey times while increasing service frequencies, will make it easier for the workforce to move between cities. The recent growth of large cities, both in the UK and overseas, have shown a larger labour market benefits business through the effects of agglomeration. Well connected businesses are more easily able to access not only a larger pool of employees but also related services and products. Where journey times fall and new connections are created, there will be a requisite effect on employment and housing markets across the north.
The last decade has seen significant investment in both the East and West Coast Main Lines to London. Journey times between London and Manchester fell from 2 hours 40 minutes to 2 hours 6 minutes in 2004 when the upgraded line opened. The Trans Pennine connections which link the four cities have however received significantly less investment. Liverpool and London can both be reached in a similar time from Sheffield, despite the Capital being 90 miles further away. While new rolling stock was introduced in 2006, the impact on journey times has been negligible. Both the north and south Trans Pennine lines are yet to be electrified and capacity around Manchester Piccadilly, the centre of a northern hub, has come under increasing pressure.
The cities of Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield had close ties long
before George Osborne floated the idea of a Northern Powerhouse in 2015. The population of all four cities exploded during the industrial revolution. Their proximity to sources of power, materials and natural transport links underpinned the large amount of development which took place in all four cities. Unemployment in most northern cities fell to a level well below most cities in the south. Liverpool’s economy took off in the 1820s, buoyed
by its docks which provided the point of entry for imported goods from across the British Empire. From Liverpool raw materials travelled East to Manchester, or ‘Cottonopolis’ as it later became known because of the amount of cotton spinning which took place there. The damp Lancashire climate proved ideal for textile production. Mills were supplied by the Liverpool and Manchester Railway Company which opened a line between the two cities in 1830. Once up and running, it slashed the time taken to cover the 35 miles from four hours to one and a half.
The more difficult to build Trans Pennine links, connecting Lancashire to Yorkshire via a series of lengthy tunnels, came 15 years later in 1845. The two day journey had become an increasing barrier to trade between Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds. A number of lines soon
crisscrossed the Pennines with journey times ranging from two to four hours although today just two lines remain. Rather than cotton, Leeds’ economy was built on these new transport links, which helped the city develop into a northern centre of commerce.
By building railways which are still in use to this day, the Victorians slashed journey times between many of the great northern cities. Turning journeys which took days into ones which took hours, meant that large efficiency savings were made. New industries emerged on the back of trade routes which became commercially viable
for the first time. By the turn of the 20th Century, journey times had reached a level which were no more than 20% longer than today. While more recent advances in technology have shaved the odd minute here and there off the timetable, the last half century has seen only very small reductions in journey times between the four cities.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%Falli
ng |
Ris
ing
Northern Powerhouse UK
1811 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
1850s
1820
1900s
Source: ONS 2015
Q2 2015
8/9
How the four cities shape up to the rest of the UK
A northern powerhouse in profile
Straddling the Pennines,
Liverpool, Manchester,
Leeds and Sheffield cover
an area of around three
fifths the size of London.
Compared to the Capital
however, people are much
more spread out, living at
less than half the density.
In London an average of
55 people live per hectare
of land, an area the size
of Trafalgar Square. In the
four northern cities, the
equivalent figure is just
20 people.
Given the distances
separating the four cities,
travelling between them
takes a long time. It takes
102 minutes to make
the 72 mile journey from
Liverpool to Sheffield but
just 54 to cover the 72
miles between Oxford
and Bristol.
Partly as a result of the
journey times involved, levels
of commuting between the
four cities are low. The same
number of people commute
from Plymouth to Exeter and
Leeds to Sheffield. This comes
despite Leeds and Sheffield
being three miles closer
together and having more than
three times the population of
the two southern cities.
Improving intercity transport
links will make it easier
for commuters to travel
between cities.
The flow of ideas and people
between cities is a key
principle of the Chancellor’s
plan. Given a higher proportion
of the workforce in each of
the four cities holds a degree
than the regional average,
connecting together these
more highly skilled labour
markets offers significant
economic benefits.
There is a disparity between the workforce’s
level of education in the north and the south
of the country. 29% of workers from Yorkshire
and the Humber have a degree, the same as
Barking and Dagenham, which has the lowest
proportion in London.
In Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield,
the north – south ‘degree gap’ is closing.
The proportion of the workforce aged between
25 and 30 with a degree in Manchester (63%)
is almost the same as London (65%).
The footprint – Comparing to the Capital
Linking them together
Proportion of workforce with a degree
Proportion of workforce with a degree
www.countrywide.co.uk
TOTAL WORKFORCE
25 TO 30
OVER 40%
30% TO 35%
35% TO 40%
25% TO 30%
UNDER 25%
MANCHESTER
36%
LIVERPOOL
27%
LEEDS
34%
SHEFFIELD
35%
BARKING & DAGENHAM
WANDSWORTH
70%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Manchester Liverpool Sheffield Leeds London
36%27%
35% 34%
56%62%
41% 45% 47%
65%
From Greater Manchester to...
Number of commuters travelling daily from Greater Manchester
4 2 6 8L I V E R P O O L4 1 8 8L O N D O N2 7 8 7L E E D S0 7 9 5S H E F F I E L D
LEEDS / ROMFORD
SHEFFIELD / GATWICK AIRPORT
LIVERPOOL / READING
MANCHESTER /
HEATHROW AIRPORT
LEEDS
SHEFFIELD LIVERPOOL
JOURNEY TIME INCLUDING ANY CHANGES
COST OF AN ANNUAL SEASON TICKET
MANCHESTER
88 MINUTES
£4,860
33 MINUTES
£2,960
102 MINUTES
£5,340
49 MINUTES
£2,580
48 MINUTES
£3,490
40 MINUTES
£2,390
Source: Countrywide Research
Source: Countrywide Research
Source: ASHE 2015
Source: ASHE 2015
Source: ONS 2011
29%
4
5
1
3
2
www.countrywide.co.uk
iverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield potentially all lie within easy commuting distance
of each other. However, compared to other cities a similar distance apart, few commute between them. Despite the combined population of Manchester and Liverpool being three times that of Swindon and Oxford, the same number of people commute from Liverpool to Manchester and from Swindon to Oxford. In both cases 1,700 people make the 30 mile journey daily.
While the growth of the four cities in the 1800s was driven by intertwined trade links, today economic growth is built on the back of a service based economy which accounts for 82% of jobs. A little under half of all jobs are taken by those who live within its boundaries, a much higher proportion than most southern cities. Someone living in Manchester is less likely to work elsewhere compared to someone living in Oxford or Cambridge. Knitting together these four disparate employment markets to create a single, integrated economy able to compete not only with London but also with other world cities underpins the principle of a northern powerhouse.
The commuting which does take place between the four cities, generally conforms to national trends. People travel from smaller cities with fewer jobs, to larger ones with a bigger employment market. At present this means there is a significant net flow of commuters from Liverpool and Sheffield into Manchester and Leeds respectively. Connecting clusters of knowledge, innovation and ideas by improving connections between the four cities has the potential to strengthen the economy of the North as a whole.
Given the distance and time involved, the vast majority of commuting which takes place between Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds is by train. In similar fashion to passenger numbers across the country, the last decade saw rail patronage increase substantially across Northern England. Despite this increase, passenger numbers grew at a slower rate compared to London and the South East. Alongside lower levels of passenger growth, reliance on public transport is also much lower across the north. Journeys of comparable length are twice as likely to be made by car in the North than in the South. The scale of commuting by rail is very different, meaning per capita benefits of new infrastructure are lower in the North. Last year London Waterloo alone handled more passengers than Leeds, Manchester Piccadilly, Liverpool Central, Liverpool Lime Street, Sheffield and York put together.
The northern powerhouse
10/11
Commuter corridors
Cutting journey times and boosting capacity are key to increasing employment options
Proportion of the workforce commuting between cities
An hour, or distances much above 40 miles, generally mark the tipping point above which people are no longer willing to commute on a regular basis. While census data shows those in most senior positions are willing to commute longer distances than those in the least, an hour or 40 minutes, is the cut-off point for most. Less than 4% of the population commute further on a daily basis. As travel times fall to a level people feel are acceptable, new links are created making people more willing to consider new employment opportunities further afield.
Lille in North Western France, with a population similar to Birmingham, is just one case in point. The opening of the Eurostar in 1994 put the city whose economy
had traditionally been driven by coal mining within 90 minutes of London, Paris and Brussels.
New high speed rail links came hand in hand with comprehensive redevelopment of central Lille. The prospect of new connectivity attracted new businesses and speculative development to Lille. While the projected influx of international companies did not appear, Lille began to reap the rewards of European connectivity only a decade after Eurostar services arrived. Today almost a million people work in Lille, double the number in 1992, two years before the Eurostar link opened. The increase in the numbers working in Lille comes despite only limited population growth.
Travel times
Cutting journey times, even by a small amount, has the potential to create significant economic benefits. This is often the case where improvements take the journey under the time perceived to be acceptable for regular commuting. Those making a journey as part of a daily commute are understandably sensitive to even small changes to the time it takes them.
In London and the North, commutes of over 25 miles are four times more likely to be made by train than the average journey to work
Commuters into northern cities are three times more
likely to use a car than those travelling into London
Compared to the Capital
By area
By population
LIVERPOOL
MANCHESTER
SHEFFIELD
LEEDS
The time difference between travelling by car and train
150
120
90
60
30
0
Min
utes
Train (suburb-city centre)Car Proposed journey time Train (city centre-city centre)
LIVERPOOL - LEEDS LEEDS - SHEFFIELD MANCHESTER - LEEDS MANCHESTER - LIVERPOOL SHEFFIELD - MANCHESTER LIVERPOOL - SHEFFIELD
TRAIN TIMETABLE
Source: Countrywide Research
Source: ONS 2015
LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER
SHEFFIELD
LEEDS
NEGLIGIBLE
NEGLIGIBLE
NEGLIGIBLE
LOCAL AUTHORITY SURROUNDING AREAS
2.4%1.2%
1.5%
1.0%
0.3%0.4%
0.2%0.5%
0.7%0.4%
0.4%0.3%
0.1%0.4%
0.6%
Source: ONS 2011
Q2 2015
L
www.countrywide.co.uk
The northern powerhouse
12/13
Labour markets
It seems in the modern knowledge economy businesses and entrepreneurial types want to flock together more than ever. To form clusters where they can learn from and spark off each other. - George Osborne, 2014
What could a Northern Powerhouse mean for the housing market?
Cutting east – west journey times between the four cities alongside an increase to the frequency of services will serve to make commuting easier. While the proposed time savings may not appear striking on initial inspection, shaving 10 minutes off a half hour journey will see travel times from areas in the suburbs fall under an hour for the first time, the maximum time perceived by most commuters to be palatable.
While the Government has committed £600m (to put this into context Crossrail, which is due to open in 2019 under London, will come in at £15bn) to improving connections between the four cities, and commissioned research into journey times between them, there is little in the way of concrete proposals. Given that any significant tangible improvements remain on the horizon, the prospect of improvements has yet to be priced into housing markets.
Evidence from other infrastructure projects around the country suggests that any uplift in values begins only once concrete proposals are in place. As the government begins to flesh out its proposals, reductions in travel times will start to be priced
into local markets. If previous trends are repeated, improvements will have been fully priced into the sales market well before they are operational. Tenants on the other hand will be unwilling to pay now for the prospect of the future improvements. Rents are unlikely to outperform the market until transport improvements are up and running and tenants are able to benefit.
Over the following pages we examine the locations in Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield which we believe to be best placed to benefit from a fall in journey times. While we have pulled out five individual locations in each city, 20 in total, there are a number of key themes which unite the best placed locations.
The suburbs will be the primary beneficiaries of transport improvements. The more affluent, with direct train or tram links into the city centre, are well placed to see value growth. These are already desirable suburbs which are actively sort out by buyers. Improved transport links will serve to widen the ‘catchment area’ of these suburbs, locations where people can work and still live in a particular area. It will become much easier for someone living in an affluent part of South Manchester to stay put while taking a job in Sheffield.
The level of the proposed reductions to journey times means Manchester in particular will benefit from new investment in transport infrastructure.
Given its location, travel times to all three other cities will fall to levels considered to be commutable. While commuting into Manchester city centre from Sheffield’s suburbs will become increasingly viable, Trans Pennine travel times to Liverpool will remain outside what most commuters consider palatable.
Previous large infrastructure projects in other parts of the UK have proved attractive to developers. Public sector investment in improved transport links has the potential to support a number of current and proposed regeneration schemes in all four cities. These are mixed use schemes in the city centre or those which are close to good transport links. While better transport links will serve to benefit areas economically, the prospect of development will also serve to instil confidence in areas where it is presently in short supply.
The assumed reductions in travel time which underpin this report are from HM Government’s: ‘One Agenda, One Economy, One North Report’, published in March 2015. As part of looking at options for transport improvements across the north, it sets ‘aspirational’ journey times between Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield. The key beneficiaries identified over the following pages are reliant on the outlined aspirational travel times being realised.
he importance of proximity, particularly for the knowledge economy, is growing. While
the internet has made long distance communication easier, the importance of clustering is growing. Silicon Valley and Old Street are two frequently cited examples of particular types of businesses clustering together. The availability and cost of space and labour were key to attracting businesses into an area organically. The principle behind building a northern powerhouse is to build on existing growth by improving the connections between four labour markets to create a larger more mobile workforce.
Over the last decade major cities have seen employment growth focussed at the more skilled end of the employment market. While this is true right across the UK, growth has been particularly pronounced in Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield. While the proportion of jobs in the most
skilled sectors still lags behind London, the last three years have seen skilled jobs created at a faster rate than in the Capital.
Despite their high profile nature, creative and research based businesses, named by the chancellor in his northern powerhouse speech still only account for around 2.5% of all jobs, across Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield. Three times as many people are employed in sales compared to creative industries. There are signs however that this is beginning to change. The last 10 years have seen the number of jobs in creative industries rise 63% across the four cities and now represents the fastest growing sector. Around two thirds of this growth has come in the last five years as the sector expands nationally. Despite this growth, the creative sector remains small compared to its London counterpart where the proportion of people employed in creative industries is twice what it is further north.
T
Fastest growing labour market segments 2014
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Manchester
Leeds
Liverpool
Sheffield
10 year change in sector size across the four cities
London
PR
OP
OR
TIO
N O
F TO
TAL
JOB
S
6%
MANAGERIAL
63%
CREATIVE
37%
RESEARCH
30%
EDUCATION
38%
HEALTH
30%
BUSINESS SERVICES
4%
SALES
3%
SKILLED CONSTRUCTION
Source: ONS 2015
Q2 2015
Case study: The Sharp Project
Local government have shown they are willing and able to support new entre-preneurial clusters. In 2006 Manchester City Council (MCC) purchased a ware-house which had been vacated by the Sharp Electronics for £6 million. After a four year refurbishment program, MCC launched 'The Sharp Project', a home for digital media companies. Three years after completion, occupancy rates are hovering around 80%. Today 54 small businesses are housed under one roof, employing a total of 962 people.
Although it is projected to be a number of years before the development turns a profit, the benefits from a relatively small investment are significant.
www.countrywide.co.uk
The northern powerhouse
14/15
Manchester Leeds
Liverpool Sheffield
Sitting in the centre of the four cities, Manchester will see a meaningful reduction in journey times to all the other three cities. An additional 892,000 people will find themselves within commuting distance of Liverpool, Sheffield and Leeds. These are people living in suburban Manchester and are already well within commuting distance of Manchester.
South Manchester in particular will be a beneficiary of faster journey times given the existing speed and frequency of train links to the city centre. While
Stockport and Wilmslow have already benefited from an upgraded West Coast Line and direct services to London, improving East-West links would make both towns among the two best connected places in the North.
Journey times from much of North Manchester into the city centre remain slow, with services terminating at Victoria or Salford Central. While the construction of the ‘Second City Crossing’ will increase capacity on central sections of the Metrolink, it will do little to cut journey times from North Manchester to Manchester Piccadilly.
Regeneration schemes to the east of the city centre will feel the effects of shorter journey times. The Eastlands development, a joint venture between Manchester City Council and the owners of Manchester City football club, will see 10,000 homes built on derelict industrial land between the Ethiad Stadium and the city centre. A new Metrolink connection will allow residents to reach the city centre and Manchester Piccadilly in under 10 minutes.
Leeds is the only one of the four cities which has neither an underground or light rail system with proposals shelved in 2005. Almost 40% of commutes starting and ending in the city itself are made by car compared to just 12% in Manchester. As a result, cutting journey times between Sheffield and Manchester, would see an additional 332,000 people brought within an hour’s commute of Manchester and Leeds, the lowest increase in any of the three cities.
Areas to the north and west of the city centre are best placed to take advantage of reduced journey times to Sheffield and Manchester given the rail links which presently exist. From Horsforth, an affluent suburb of north Leeds, journey times to Sheffield and Leeds will fall to under an hour. While the headline travel time is important, the underlying frequency of services affects commutability. The impact of reduced journey times at stations with hourly or twice hourly services is harder to quantify.
Completion of the Trinity shopping centre development in 2013 alongside the first phase of the Victoria Gate development in 2016, will see Leeds’ retail offer will be improved significantly. Faster transport links will bring a further 1.3 million people within an hour of the city centre which, alongside limited competition from surrounding areas, will further entrench Leeds as a key retail destination in the north.
Despite the reduction in journey times, the time to make a journey to Leeds and Sheffield will remain a barrier to daily commuting across the Pennines. Instead the benefits of lower journey times will be felt by suburbs a little further out compared to other cities. Here commuters will find themselves within commuting distance of Manchester. 348,000 additional people, primarily living in areas East of Lime Street station, will see journey times to Manchester fall
to a point where regular commuting becomes viable.
While connections from the city centre will improve, there is also potential for services linking Manchester and Liverpool to stop at Liverpool South Parkway station (Allerton) itself. Since the station opened in 2006* it has been serviced by a growing number of long distance services, and now boasts direct connections to
Birmingham, York and Blackpool.
The mixed use nature of the Liverpool Waters development means it is well placed to benefit from shorter journey times to Manchester. Outline planning was granted in 2013 to regenerate seven former docks. 9,000 homes alongside 320,000m² of office space will be spread alongside a one kilometre river front stretch of the Mersey.
Given that the flow of commuters between Sheffield and Leeds represents the largest movement of people between the four cities, improvements to northern rather than eastern links will, initially at least, prove most important. While the reduction to journey times is welcome, the majority of commuting between Leeds and Sheffield is done by drivers using the M1, which at peak times operates beyond capacity. 377,000 people, living predominantly on the southern
and eastern fringes of Sheffield and just outside its boundaries will find themselves within commuting distance of Manchester and Leeds.
Even those living further afield in Sheffield’s outskirts on the ‘Supertram’, are able to reach the railway station within 20 minutes. Small towns outside Sheffield which are presently home to very few Trans Pennine commuters will see a commute to Manchester and Leeds become increasingly viable.
Draft HS3 proposals have placed a new station in Meadowhall, 15 minutes outside the city centre, rather than in the existing station. Sheffield City Council are keen however to ensure new transport links will connect the city centre directly with other northern centres. As levels of investment in Sheffield city centre are showing signs of picking up after a number of much needed retail schemes fell through, the City Council are understandably keen to ensure the new infrastructure delivers maximum benefits.
Average house price
10 year passenger growth
Passengers 2013/14
Direct peak frequency
To Liverpool
To Sheffield
To Leeds
Average house price
10 year passenger growth
Passengers 2013/14
Direct peak frequency
To Sheffield
To Manchester
To Liverpool
Average house price
10 year passenger growth
Passengers 2013/14
Direct peak frequency
To Manchester
To Sheffield
To Leeds
Average house price
10 year passenger growth
Passengers 2013/14
Direct peak frequency
To Leeds
To Manchester
To Liverpool
Stockport £126,000 +117% 3,500,000 High 41 min 40 min 51 min
East Didsbury £194,000 +142% 301,000 Medium 46 min 59 min 56 min
Wilmslow £275,000 +128% 1,300,000 Medium 52 min 65 min 62 min
Cheadle Hulme £218,000 +164% 762,000 Medium 49 min 62 min 59 min
Swinton £121,000 +102% 138,000 Low 52 min 65 min 62 min
Cross Gates £165,000 +99% 476,000 Medium 51 min 52 min 81 min
Garforth £160,000 +45% 637,000 Medium 50 min 51 min 80 min
East Garforth £155,000 +42% 223,000 Medium 56 min 57 min 86 min
Headingley £125,000 +118% 357,000 Low 53 min 54 min 83 min
Horsforth £193,000 +64% 1,006,000 Low 57 min 58 min 87 min
Liverpool South Parkway £155,000 N/A* 1,800,000 High 41 min 71 min 72 min
West Allerton £203,000 +299% 93,000 Medium 44 min 74 min 75 min
Huyton £110,000 +152% 990,000 High 49 min 79 min 80 min
Broad Green £120,000 +243% 581,000 Medium 42 min 72 min 73 min
Mossley Hill £204,000 +119% 243,000 Low 42 min 72 min 73 min
Dore & Totley £258,000 +150% 138,000 Medium 47 min 48 min 78 min
Chapeltown £150,000 +62% 305,000 Medium 54 min 55 min 85 min
Rotherham £148,000 +51% 667,000 Medium 52 min 54 min 84 min
Darnall £90,000 +88% 11,000 Low 49 min 50 min 80 min
Dronfield £185,000 +90% 162,000 Low 51 min 52 min 82 min
Source: Land Registry, Countrywide Research, ORR 2015
Source: Land Registry, Countrywide Research, ORR 2015
Source: Land Registry, Countrywide Research, ORR 2015
Source: Land Registry, Countrywide Research, ORR 2015
Q2 2015
Key beneficiaries
Countrywide House
88-103 Caldecotte Lake Drive
Caldecotte
Milton Keynes
Buckinghamshire
MK7 8JT
Tel 01908 961000
Conveyancing
Lee House
Great Bridgewater Street
Manchester
M1 5RR
Tel 0161 200 8200
Fax 0161 200 8205
Surveying
2 Boundary Court
Willow Farm Business Park
Castle Donington
Derby
DE74 2UD
Tel 01332 813002
Corporate Property Services
Tamar House
The Bridges
Brants Bridge
Bracknell
Berkshire
RG12 9BG
Tel 01344 389 500
Corporate/Emergency/
Commercial/Social Relocation
Thamesgate House
33 Victoria Avenue
Southend on Sea
Essex
SS2 6DF
Tel 01702 236403
Fax 01702 437119
Estate Management -
Leasehold, Commercial,
LPA, Residential Lettings
4th Floor
Thamesgate house
33-41 Victoria Avenue
Southend on Sea
SS2 6DF
Tel 01702 221000
Fax 01702 434145
Lettings
Countrywide House
Sherwood Court
Lake View Drive
Annesley
Nottingham
NG15 0DT
Tel 01623 721222
Property Auctions
80 - 86 New London Road
Chelmsford
Essex
CM2 0PD
Tel 01245 344133
Registered Office
17 Duke Street
Chelmsford
Essex
CM1 1HP
Tel 01245 294000
Fax 01245 294028
For more information please contact:
Corporate Client Enquiries - 0207 908 1562 [email protected]
www.countrywide.co.uk/insight