Summary PLACARD Vienna Foresight Workshop draft 170206 · Foresight definition Foresight is a...

Platformforclimateadaptation&disasterriskreduction

www.placard-network.eu

PLACARDForesightWorkshopsummary:Howcanforesighthelptoreducevulnerabilitytoclimate-relatedhazards?

PLACARDaims…… at establishingacoordination and knowledge exchange platform to supportmulti-stakeholderdialogueandconsultationbetweenClimateChangeAdaptation(CCA)andDisasterRiskReduction(DRR)research,policyandpracticecommunitiesacrossscales.

In order to achieve this goal, PLACARD provides a common ‘space’ where CCA and DRRcommunitiesmeet,shareexperiencesandcreateopportunitiesforcollaboration.

TheForesight taskwithinPLACARD looks at the commonelementsbetweenCCAandDRR, in thecontextoftheParisAgreementatCOP21onclimatechangeandtheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction, bothmajor steps towards increasing resilience to climate-relatedextremeevents.Long-term risk and response analyses in support of these two agreements and theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)assessmentreportstendtobedominatedbythedevelopment and formal analysis of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and SharedSocioeconomicPathways (SSPs). Suchanalysesarean importantmechanism toadvanceanalyticalknowledge about future risks, yet they constrain creative analysis in support of action. PLACARDseesacomplementaryroleformoreandbroader(qualitativeandquantitative)foresightmethodstobe implemented by diverse experts and stakeholders to explore future vulnerabilities, risks, andopportunities.

ForesightdefinitionForesightisaforward-lookingapproachthataimstohelpdecision-makersexploreandanticipateinaparticipatorywaywhatmighthappen,andprepareforarangeofpossiblefutures, influenceandshapethem.

Foresight typically involves systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gatheringandmedium-to-long-term vision-building processes to uncover a range of possible alternative future visions (FLISInterestGroup)1.

Thus foresight is about differentmethods, tools, formatswith a high degree of participation andstakeholder engagement, looking at future developments and its integration into decision-makingtoday,thusthinking,debatingandshapingthefuture(JRC,2001)2.

1http://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-flis/portal_glossary/glossary/foresight?lang=en2http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/eur20128en.pdf


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Figure1:Roleofforesight,Source:JRCFor-LEARN

WorkshopaimsApplying foresight can strengthenbothCCAandDRR in termsof science,policyandpractice; linkthemwithotherinternationalmechanismssuchastheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs);andexploretheimplicationsoftheglobalagreementsforEuropean,nationalandlocalaction.

WiththeForesightworkshop,PLACARDaimedto(i)explorethepotentialroleofforesightmethods,tools andprocesses to inform the implementationof theUNFCCC adaptation and Sendai disasterrisk reduction mechanisms; (ii) identify relevant long-term trends (e.g. global mega-trends) andsurprise events (wildcards) and other developments which would have implications for DRR andCCA;(iii)andexploretheneedsandprioritiesofconnectingclimatechange,disasterriskresponse,sustainabledevelopmentandothercommunitieswithrespecttoforesight.

WorkshoppresentationsThree presentations3 (cf Annex 1) served as an input for the workshop participants to bringeverybodyonthesamepageforsubsequentdiscussionsinparallelbreakoutworkinggroups:

Ü ImplicationsofmegatrendsforCCAandDRR;Ü ScenariosasaforesighttoolforCCAandDRR;andÜ Climate-datauseforRiskReduction–aCCAandDRRperspective.

The mega-trends approach, focussed on the global mega-trends (see: Background Information –Mega-trends)4,waspresentedinthreepitches(mega-trendsclusters):

Ü “Living andworking”, includingUrbanization, Technological change, Economic growth andinequalities;

Ü “Health and wellbeing”, including Demography, Changing disease burden and pandemics,Environmentaldegradation,pollutionandresourcesonecosystems,and

Ü “Safe and secure”, includingMigration, Global competition for resources and Diffusion ofpower.

3http://www.placard-network.eu/placard-foresight-workshop-reducing-vulnerability-to-climate-related-hazards/4http://www.placard-network.eu/wp-content/PDFs/PLACARD-Foresight-background-megatrends.pdf


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Eachofthemega-trendsintheseclusterscanhaveimpactsonCCAand/oronDRR.Theirrelevancewasassessedbasedonthefollowingguidingquestions:

Ü Whatarethekeytrendsandpotentialsignals?o WhatarethekeydriversforCCAandDRRresearch?o Howdoglobalmega-trendsaffectrisktoextremeweatherevents?

Ü Whatarethepotentialsurprises,wildcardsandnon-linearities?o Whichsurpriseeventsmayincrease/decreaserisks&vulnerabilities?o Whataretheirconsequencesforresearchandpolicies?

ResultsoftheworkinggroupsThe Working Group ‘Living and working’ focussed on the mega-trends (i) urbanization, (ii)technologicalchange,and(iii)economicgrowthandinequalities.

(i) Urbanizationmay:

o Lead to a higher exposure (to climate and natural hazards) of both people andproperties/assets

o Disconnectpeoplefromthenaturalenvironment;henceitmayreducetheinterestofurbandwellersinenvironmentalissues

o Lead to greater challenges in terms of urban planning, including criticalinfrastructures

o Be accompaniedwith the ageing of the society, leading to a change in the socialstructure,whichmaypotentiallyincreasepeople’svulnerability(seealsoHealth)

(ii) Technologicalchangemay:

o Modifytheratioofcentralized/decentralizedactivitiesinsocietyo Increase the dependence on technologies and its associated devices, which could

potentially increase vulnerability and deepen inequalities between urban dwellershavingaccesstotechnologyandtheothers

o Offernewopportunitiesfordecreasingclimateriskso Changethebehaviourofurbandwellers,whilelinksbetweentechnologicalchanges

andbehaviourchangeswouldhavetobeaccountedforo Highlymodify thewaywe liveandthewaywework (e.g. robots replacingcurrent

workers)(iii) Economicgrowthandinequalitiesmay:

o Fastenthedepletionofnaturalresources,possiblyaffectingresilienceo Increase resilience of those benefiting from economic growth and decrease it for

thosewhodonoto Modify the structure of the future labour market, which itself will considerably

impactthesocialsystem,whichwouldhavetobemoreflexibleandaffordable

The focus of the Working Group ‘Health and well-being’ was to explore how megatrends likedemography, changing disease burden and pandemics, environmental degradation, pollution andresourcesonecosystemsaffect riskandvulnerability toclimate-relatedextremeevents.Todoso,thisgroupfocusedon(i)trendsandsignalsaswellason(ii)potentialsurprisesandwildcards.

(i) Therelevanttrendsandsignalsidentifiedwere

o AgreatimpactofglobalurbanizationonEuropeisexpected.Itmayaffectthesupplychainsofproducts;enhancerisksofconflictsinregionswithrapidurbanmigration;andspreaddiseasesthroughincreasedtourism.


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o Globalizationmayrendertheelderlymorevulnerable,sinceacontinueddecreaseofsolidarity and an increase of individualisation are expected within a globalizedworld. However, the use of digital technologies in communication and responsemight enhance their protection towards climate-related extreme events, such asheatwaves.

o The DRR community is more concerned with short-term events (e.g. floods andstorms)thanwithlonger-termevents(e.g.heatstressordiseases).Thedifferenceofperception and interest across countries depends on how DRR community isorganizedindifferentcountries.

o The interlinkages between megatrends and their drivers are expected to play amajorroleinthedeterminationoffuturerisksandvulnerability.Yetastheyarenotfully understood, their management may require new forms of governance andcollaboration.

o Within a world that faces such megatrends, information on social changes is ofutmostimportanceandshouldbeembeddedwithinvulnerabilityassessments.

o The time dimension is expected to be an important determinant for theimplementationofadaptationandcopingstrategies.

(ii) Thepotentialsurprisesandwildcardsaremainly

o Cascadingeffectscanbringsurprisesinboththeimpactandtheresponseparts.Forinstance, environmental degradation affects food supply, which affects migrationtowards Europe. However, very little is currently known about these cascadingeffects.

o Terrorismand terroristattacksposea serious threat.Howeververy little isknownaboutEuropeancapacity tocopewithandprepare forsuchthreats (e.g.medicallyandpsychologically).

o New types of wars and weapons might also appear, particularly along with thedigitalrevolutionandassociatednewvulnerabilities.

o Rapidpoliticalchangesandpoliciesadoptedorchangedasaconsequencearealsocrucialwildcardsthatshouldbeaccountedfor.

o Economiccrisesarehardtoforesee,particularlyinaglobalizationcontext.

Altogether, a reflexion should be started on how and where to engage (key areas, stakeholdersmapping, social network analysis, target audience, etc.). In addition, these mega-trends haveimpactsbeyondthefieldofCCAandDRR,andhencetheirmanagementshouldbeembeddedwithinglobalstrategiesaccountingforotherenvironmentalandsocietalfields.

TheWorkingGroup‘Safeandsecure’lookedatthefollowingmega-trends:(i)Globalcompetitionforresources;(ii)Diffusionofpower;and(iii)Migration.Amongthose,‘migration’wasthemega-trendthatdominatedthediscussion,whilereferencesweremadealsototheothertwo.

(i) Mainpointsofdiscussionregardingtrendsandsignalsidentified

o Migration often results from poor governance. Instead of making a prioriassumptionsaboutmigration(i.e.thatitwouldhavehappenedanyway),weshouldexplore ifandhowdevelopmentpoliciescanenablepeople tobe resilient in theirhomecountriesandhenceavoidthenecessityofmigration.

o We need to manage vulnerability, exposure and coping capacity of people anddeveloprelevantpoliciestosupportthisbeforetheneedformigrationemerges.Toachievethisgoal,weneedtostrivefor:

a. coherenceacrossdifferentministriesatnationallevel.Theprivatesectorandbusinessshouldbeinvolvedinsuchefforts,and


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b. cooperation at transnational level, including also links to the EU and thevarious DGs. Building such connections, especially with countries that havepower(andmoney),mightfacilitateinnovationandknowledgetransferinthefuture.

o Thetimeandplacewhereextremeweathereventstakeplaceandwheremigrationflows are provoked as their result might differ significantly. Thus, a broaderperspective is required to address the implications of migration and seize theopportunities thatmightemerge.This shouldaccount fora longer temporalandawiderspatialscale,andincludebothshort-termandlong-termpolicies.

o Weneedtoimproveourunderstandingof:a. Thepatternsandflowsofmigration;b. Thetypesofmigrationandtheirunderlyingreasons.Thereare,forexample,

social, economic, political and environmental issues that trigger migration(e.g.disasterswar,humanrelationships,workandeducation).Also,differenttypesofmigrationare linked todifferentwaysof thinkingand rational. Forexample,inthecaseofawaroramajordisaster,peopletendtohavemoreimmediate reactions and short-term thinking, than when being in othersituations.

o Communicationofdisastersandtheircomplexitybecomesincreasinglyurgentforadiversegroupofsocietalactors(i.e.peoplewithawiderangeofprofiles,whocomefrom a variety of backgrounds and contexts). Communication with them can beconstrained, among others, by cultural barriers, language, or a misleadingperspectivethatmigrationisnotrelevanttothem.

o Research evidence should be used to inform policy decisions, especially thoserelated to ‘preparedness’ (e.g. related to buildings/ housing) and spatial planning.Forexample,people living inmarginalisedareasor inunsafehousingare inhigherrisktobeaffectedbydisasters.

(ii) Surpriseevents(wildcards)

MigrationshouldbeconsideredwhencarryingoutscenarioexercisesforDRRandCCAatdifferentgeographic levels,as it isvery likelythat itwillshapeandchange‘futureworlds’.Migrationtrendswilldifferdependingonthescenariowelookat.Potentialsurpriseeventsmayinclude:

o changesinpolicyandgovernments,leadinginturntochangesinmigrationo migrationtakingplacefromortoplacesorzoneswhere,undercurrentconditions,it

isconsideredhighlyunlikelyo changes inthewaythatcountriesmanagetheirresources,withpositivespillovers

comingfromcountriesthataremoreeffectiveandefficientthanotherso shrinkingofEurope’spower,andhenceofitspotentialgeopoliticalimpact,resulting

inturninashiftinthefocusonthecontinentalone

Results of the reflection exercise are depicted in figure 2 and are visible at weblinkhttp://www.placard-network.eu/what-might-the-future-look-like/.


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Figure2:ResultsofthevisioningexerciseonOctober24,2016atthePLACARDForesightWorkshopinVienna,Austria

Basedontheidentifiedtrends,potentialsurprises,wildcardsandnon-linearities,thefocuswasthenontheirimplications,aswellasontheopportunitiesthatmightemergefromthem;whattheymeanintermsofpolicies,internationalarrangementsandcapacities,andfinallyforbudgetpriorities.

In a role play exercise of the three working groups based on the previously identified trends,potentialsurprises,wildcardsandnon-linearities,threedifferentministries,namelytheMinistryofEconomyandSpatialPlanning,theMinistryofEnvironmentandHealthandtheMinistryofInternalandExternalAffairs,hadto:

a) Identify the implications and opportunities of megatrends/foresight information for eachministrywhenconsideringDRRandCCAresponses

b) Allocatean investmentbudget formegatrends/foresightresearchforeachministryandsetpriorities

c) Describethecapacitiesandinstitutionalarrangementsthataremissing

MinistryofEconomyandSpatialPlanning

a) implicationsandopportunities• PrioritisethesectorswhichareimpactedandconcernedbyCCAandDRRstrategies• Reducedependencies• Designstrategicinfrastructure,relatedtoenergy,water,builtenvironment,etc.• FramespatialplanswithDRRandCCAinmind,e.g.multifunctionalspaces• Supportinnovation,bothtechnicalandsocial• Identifygreenandsustainablejobsandgrowth• Increase the collaboration and linkageswith otherministries, in particular with the

MinistryofEnvironmentandHealth


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b) investmentbudget• Design of an innovative framework for the economy, which should favour climate-

friendly investments and lead to a low-carbon but also attractive and competitivesociety

• ImplementaCCAandDRRfundingsystem,whichfavoursresearchandinformationonCCAandDRRandenhancescapacitybuildingthroughcooperation

• Take short-term measures that are appealing to stakeholders and decision-makerswithintheministry,aimingatcreatingjobsandreducingunemployment

c) capacitiesandinstitutionalarrangements• Strategicdecisions• Resilientinfrastructure• Cooperationwithministriesandotherinter-sectorialinstitutions• Inclusionofexternalenvironmentalcosts• MainstreamingofCCAandDRRinfinancialandeconomicmodels/decisions

MinistryofEnvironmentandHealth

a) implicationsandopportunities

With regards to the discussed mega-trends, the ministry should consider the followingvulnerabilities:

• Socialisolation,connectedtotheageingpopulation• Migration flux towardsEurope,due to socioeconomicandenvironmental reasons,but

alsoenhancedbyclimatechange• Increasedmortalityandtosanitationhazardsduetourbanization,alongwithincreaseof

waterconsumptionanddecreaseofwaterquality• Breakingoffoodsupplychains,whichcouldleadtofoodinsecurity

Alsoanumberofopportunities couldarise from themegatrendsand foresight information in thenearfuture,e.g.:

• New technologies, mainly oriented towards the development of more sustainablesolutions,andtheimprovementofcommunicationcouldbedeveloped

• Newsustainable consumptionpatternsmayappear, particularly following community-basedsolutions

• Migrants who enter Europe might be highly skilled and motivated, and may bringinnovativeandsustainablebestpractices

• Linkagesbetweendifferentsectors,generationsandculturescouldbepromotedusingforesightexercises

b) investmentbudgetThemainareasofresearchandprioritiesarerankedasfollows:

• Horizon-scanning exercises incorporating megatrends analysis, disruptions, andretrospectivedisasteranalysisareveryusefulfor integratedCCAandDRRplanningand should be funded. These type of visioning (and back casting) exercises couldhelp understanding how different systems are interlinked, how stakeholdersinteract,whicharethemostvulnerablegroups,whatarethepotentialsolutionsandtheir feasibility. Itwould help to explore inmore detail themain hazards such asfoodsupplydisruption,heatwavesandflooding.


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• Monitoring of trends related to extreme climatic events and health andenvironmentcouldbeimproved.

• Ahighpriorityshouldalsobegiventothequestionofscalabilityandthedesignofmethodologiestoscaleupgoodexamples.

• Research on the question ‘How will the health system be impacted byvulnerabilities?’ should be funded. This would allow defining the role of socialstructures, identifying emerging actors, designing win-win solutions such asecosystems-basedsolutions,etc.

• Finally,abudgetshouldbeallocatedtounderstandtheriskforpolicygoals,inordertogainpoliticalinterest.

c) capacitiesandinstitutionalarrangements• A high-level foresight committee, set up across the ministries with high political

sponsorship,toassessthevalidityofcurrenthazardsplansandtheiruseforthenearfuture

• Designandmaintenanceofeffectiveengagementmechanismsforkeystakeholders• Promotionofnature-basedsolutionsandgreenjobs• StrictimplementationofEUairqualitypolicies,particularlyincaseofheatwaves.• Integration of DRR/CCA knowledge at least in secondary-level education (high-

school)aswellasincompanies,governmentoffices,etc.• Setupofauniversalbasicincometoimproveaccesstohealthcare• Designofplanstosupportmigrants inbeingproductivemembersoftheEuropean

communityandbeinginvolvedinactivitiestoimprovetheirwell-being

MinistryofInternalandExternalAffairs

a) implicationsandopportunities• Migrationmaychangecapitaldistributionandhenceimpactonthecopingcapacity

ofdifferentsocietiesandgeographicalregions.• Thereisaneedforfull integrationofdevelopmentpolicy, includingcivilprotection

andsafety,andconsiderationofcapitalallocationbeyondnationalborders.• There is a need for a broader perspective on assuring provision of materials and

consider food security issues, energy and the development and diffusion oftechnologicalinnovations.

• Raising income levels in other countries will increase their coping capacities anddecreasevulnerabilities.Transferoftechnologicalinnovationscanalsocontributetotheachievementofthisgoal.Internationalorganisations(e.g.WorldBank)canplayanimportantroleinrelevantefforts.

b) investmentbudget• Discussionsemphasisedthattheresilienceofacountrycanbeimprovedbymaking

investments now somewhere else (beyond a country’s national borders). ClimatechangeimpactsbeyondEurope,forexample,canaffectEuropeancountriese.g.,byimpacting food prices or influencing food security. This is a difficult message tocommunicateandtoconvincepeopletosupportit.

• Allocation of resources to respond to hazards should be aligned with theprioritisationof the goals tobe achieved.When it comes to research, someareaswere identified that need to be further explored. These include (in an order ofimportance, according to thebudget thatworkshopparticipantswouldallocate tothem(%)):


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o integratedrisk/vulnerabilitiesmapping,visualizingwhyweneedtoaddresscertainissuesandhowmeasurescanbeprioritised(50%)

o building human capital and reforming the education system to promoteawarenessraisingandskills’development(30%)

o improvingtheunderstandingofthewaysthatsocietiesevolve,consideringinparticularvulnerablegroupsduringtherecoveryperiod(e.g.,post-Katrinaperiod);technologicalandculturalmeasures(20%)

c) capacitiesandinstitutionalarrangements• Ensurediversificationofsuppliesandsupplierstoreducevulnerability;• Consider safety and security also in terms of supply chains, provision of raw

materialsandmanufacturedgoods• Strive for financial and institutional coherence at multiple levels (focus on the

nationallevelbutconsideralsotheEUandgloballevel)• Establishorassignan‘umbrella’ministryinallcountriesthathavesignedtheSDGs

which will be in charge of ensuring that decisions will be made towards theirachievement

• Supportlong-termCCAandDRRpoliciesandglobalframeworks• Develop strategies and plans to support people’s integration in the countries to

which theymigrate. In this context,people’spsychologyhas tobeconsidered (i.e.waystohelppeopleovercomethetraumasofmigration);usesocialnetworks (i.e.social networks, especially connections to friends and relatives, can play animportantrolenotonlywhenitcomestopeople’sresilience(beforemigration)butalso for facilitating their integration in a new environment (after migration);environmental conditions (i.e. acclimatisation is an important issue linked tomigrationandthelengthofresidencetimeinthehostcountry,aspeopleoftenhavetomigratetocountriesthathaveverydifferentconditionscomparedtotheirhomecountries)

• Promotetheconceptofpeopleas‘globalcitizens’• Sensitizepeopleinordertoconvincethemoftheimportanceoftheirsupport

ThepossibleroleanduseofforesightinCCA/DRRInaplenarydiscussionthepossiblerolesanduseofforesightinCCA/DRRwerediscussed.Themainpointsaresummarisedbelow:

• A multi-method foresight approach (toolbox) is required (mega-trends, wildcards,disruptors, qualitative and quantitative analytical tools, participatorymethods) linked tothescenariosalreadyusedinCCAandDRR(ifany);

• Foresightdeliverstoolsforstrategicthinkingandprioritizationandmanyotherpurposes;• Overviews of different foresightmethods already exist but examples of their use (case-

studies)appliedtoCCA/DRRarenotwidelyavailable.Thus,thiscouldbeexplored;• AEuropeanforesightplatformexisted,butwasprojectbasedandhasended–integrating

CCAandDRRinotherexistingforesightinitiatives/programmeswouldbeuseful;• Close collaborationwas recommendedwith foresight units at JRC Brussels, EC (multiple

DGs,mainlyRTD),STOA/EPRS(EP=GlobalTrendsUnitandScientificForesightUnit);• Potential frameworks that could be used to further develop foresight in CCA and DRR

analysescouldusemegatrendsasbaselinesandvulnerabilityasthemainfocus;• Horizon-scanningcouldbeaninterestingexerciseforagendasettinginPLACARD;


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• DRRisverymuchfocusingonpastandpresent(andparticipatory),whileCCAisverymuchforward looking using quantitativemodelling output – it could be interesting to explorepotentialconnectionsacrossCCAandDRRcommunitiesusingforesightmethods;

• Theparticipatory(transdisciplinary)natureofforesightisoneofitsbiggeststrengths;

Methodologies:

• Foresightusesmethodsfromacrossdisciplines,althoughsomeareendogenoustoamorenarrow“foresight”community,severalcanbecombineddependingontheobjective;

• It is important to clearly define the strategic objective of a foresight exercise (e.g.CCA/DRR);

• Selectionofmethodsinforesightshouldbeopen-mindedandverymuchorientedonthetargetandtime-horizonsofthestakeholdersandofclimatechange;

• Scenarios (bothqualitativeandquantitative) can sketch the future contextof actionandhelpshapingresponsestrategies;

• Someexercisesstartwithquantitativemodelling,butthenmoveontodevelopacommonunderstandingwithstakeholdersaboutnextstepsregardingwhichothermethodstouse.

AgendasettingpointsforPLACARD

• Foresight and scenarios could be used to explore the acceptability of CCA measures,governanceandinstitutionalchanges.

• SincetheactualimplementationofforesightexercisesisbeyondthescopeandbudgetofPLACARD, which focuses on promoting new research angles, the project can exploreopportunities to tap into existing networks which can do actual foresight work withPLACARDexpertsupport.

• Linkingupwith JPIs, suchas the JPIClimate,and their researchagendamightbeagoodopportunity.

• Linkswiththetransformationalresearchcommunitiescanbeexploredasfollow-upwork.

Outlook–followupaftertheworkshopTheprojectteamhaspreparedthisworkshopsummaryandaseparatepolicybrief,involvingtheworkshopparticipantsandcontributorsinearly2017.ThelistofworkshopparticipantsisaddedinAnnex2.

TheworkshopparticipantswillbeinvitedtothePLACARDForesightSessionattheECCA20175inGlasgowinJune2017.AwebinaronmoreconcreteexamplesofsuccessfulandfailureintheuserofforesightinCCA/DRRisenvisagedfor2017.

Afollow-upworkshopisplannedfor2018withacontextandstructurethatwillgofarbeyondtheexplorativecharacterofthe2016workshop.

Otherpossiblefollow-upscanbeinnewresearchprojects,infundingprogrammessuchastheHorizon2020orJPIClimate.

5http://ecca2017.eu/conference/


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Figure3:Jointeffort–thegrouppictureattheendoftheworkshopwithhappyfaces

ThefollowingeventswereidentifiedaspotentiallyrelevantforfurtherexploringthedevelopmentandimplementationofforesighttoenhanceCCAandDRRintegration:

- ERA-LEARNTrainingCourse:UsingForesightinP2Ps6,February20-21.2017,Vienna,Austria- ESPAS(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem)7Conferencein2019- ECCA3inGlasgow,2017–sessiononForesightorganizedbyPLACARD- WebinarinSpring2017- ECCA4inLisbon,2019

Participant’srecommendationstoimprovetheuseofforesightinCCA/DRR

Ü Supportabetterunderstandingoftheneedsandbarrierstotheintegrationofthe“future”dimensionincurrentdecision-making–morelong-termthinkinginpolicyandpracticeandidentifyingemergingissues

Ü UnderstandthedifferencesandsimilaritiesinperspectivesandexpectationsbetweenCCA,DRRandforesight

Ü Bringthetwocommunitiestogetherinconcreteactivitieswithaclearlydefinedgoalandapplyforesightmethods

Ü Developconcreteandachievableoutputsfromforesightthinking,definingframingandcontext.Forexample,cleartrends,quantitativeoutputs,setsofscenariosandnarratives,tosmoothintegrationwithinCCAandDRRactivities

Ü Understandpeople’sperceptionsandifneeded,trytochangethem–forexample,researchers,practitioners,decision-makersandNGOs.CCAandDRRpractitionerscanhavedifferentviewsonthesameissues.

6https://www.era-learn.eu/events/era-learn-training-course-using-foresight-in-public-public-partnerships-p2ps-17http://espas.eu/orbis/espas/2016-annual-conference


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Ü IdentifyspecificopportunitiesforconnectingCCAandDRR,forexamplethroughresearchprogrammingandprojects

Ü ConductresearchandimprovecapacitybuildingtointegrateDRRandCCA.CCAactorscouldbenefitfromaclearerunderstandingoftheimportanceofaDRRorextremeeventfocus,whileDRRpractitionersmaybenefitfromgraspingtherelevanceofalong-termclimatechangeperspectiveforprevention

Ü Defineresearchquestionsandtime-horizonsearlyintheprojectplanningorproposalstagetoselectandapplythemostsuitableforesightmethodsanddeliverknowledge,forexample,researchneeds,futurevisionsandactionplans

Ü Promoteandcommunicateforesightexamples–goodpracticeondifferentlevels,contextsandsettings.Forexample,forward-lookingco-operationtoimplementmeasureswithappropriateinstitutions,authoritiesandstakeholders

Ü Provideevidenceoftheimmediatebenefitsofforesight–andtherisksofnotusingit!Ü Designappropriateforesightprocessesthatscopetheproblemsathand,explorescenarios,

developavision,back-cast,evaluatelearninganditeration,andthencarryoutaseriesofpracticalforesightexercisesatdifferentlevelstoseehowtheywork.Doit–don’tjusttalkaboutit!

Ü Applyforesightmethodstoexistingpractices.Foresightmethodsarealreadypartlyusedinadaptationpathways,climatescenarios,impactandvulnerabilityassessments,andindevelopmentofclimatechangeadaptationanddisasterriskreductionstrategiesandactionplans.

Ü Avoidivory-towerresearchwhichisunattractiveataregionalorlocalauthoritylevelwheredecisionsaremade


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Annex1-DraftAgendaDate:24-25October2016

Venue:NationalMetService,

HoheWarte38,1190Vienna,Austria

ForesightWorkshop-Howcanforesighthelptoreducevulnerabilitytoclimate-relatedhazards?

Day1-Date:24October

Timing Session

12:00–13:00 Registration,lightsnacksavailable

13:00–14:45 Session1:Settingthescene

• Welcoming(DirectorZAMGandEAA)• AintroductiontoPLACARDandtheobjectivesoftheworkshop(Markus

Leitner,EAA)andwhoiswho?

ThreeshortpresentationsonthecurrentCCA-DRRcontextandtheforesightcomponentbasedonmegatrends.

• GlobalandEuropeanmegatrendsrelevantforDRR/CCA(AnitaPircVelkavrhEEA)

• ScenariosasaforesighttoolinCCA(SimonaPedde,WUR)• Useofclimatedataforriskreduction–CCAandDRRperspective(Barbara

Chimani,ZAMG)

14:45–15:15 Coffee

15:15–17:00 Session2:FuturetrendsandtheirrelevanceforDRRandCCAresearch

Thissessionexploresthepossibleimplicationsofkeydrivers(Megatrends)onCCAandDRRresearch.Threepitches(inplenary)foreachclusterofmegatrendswillserveasintroforthreeparallelworkinggroups.Thesewillidentifykeydriversandtrendsandserveasacommonunderstandingofmajorimpactsandrisks,namelyon:

a) Livingandworking(pitch:AndreasPeerandJohannesGöllner,NationalDefenceAcademy,Austria)• Urbanization• Technologicalchange• Economicgrowthandinequalities

b) Healthandwellbeing(pitch:MartinMayer,Youmeo)• Demography• Changingdiseaseburdenandpandemics• Environmentaldegradation,pollutionandresourcesonecosystems

c) Safeandsecure(pitch:TobiasLung,EEA)• Migration• Globalcompetitionforresources


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• Diffusionofpower

Eachgroupwillconsiderthefollowingquestions:

Exploringtrends,identifyingnewsignalsandlinkswithforesight

• Howdoglobalandregionalmegatrendsaffecttherisksof/vulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandextremeweathereventsinthiscluster?

• WhyarethesekeydriversimportantforCCAandDRRresearch?

Potentialsurprises,nonlinearity,wildcardsandimplicationsforCCAandDRRresearch

• Whatkindsofsurpriseeventsorwildcardscanaffect(reduce/increase)therisksandvulnerabilitiesconsideredinthisclusterofmegatrends?

• WhyaretheyimportantforCCAandDRRresearch?• Howcantheseglobalandregionalmegatrendsandsurprisesenhanceor

hinderthecapacitytorespondtoclimatechangeandextremeweatherevents?

17:00–17:45 Wrapupandinspirationalreflection

Day2-Date:25October

Timings Session

08:30–09:00 Arrival,tea&coffeeavailable

09:00–09:15 QuickrecapfromDayOne(plenary)

09:15–11:15 Session3:Howcanforesightbeusedinreducingfuturerisksofextremeweatherandclimatechange?

Thissessionexplorespossibleresponsestotherisksandopportunitiesidentifiedinthepreviousday,foreachclusterofMegatrends.

Thissessionaimstofocusonhowforesighthelptoimprovetheeffectivenessofclimaterelatedresponsesbyanticipatingfutureneeds,gapsandemergingissuesinCCAandDRRresearch.

Threebreak-outgroups(onepercluster)willconsiderthefollowingquestions:

• Howcantheseglobalandregionalmegatrendsandsurprisesenhanceorhinderthecapacitytorespondtoclimatechangeandextremeweatherevents?

• Whatmaybetheimplicationsforcurrentsectoralpoliciesandinstitutionalarrangements?

• HowcanforesightsupporttheidentificationoffutureneedsandprioritiesinDRRandCCAresearch?

11:15–11:45 Coffee


February2017 15

11:45–12:45 Highlightsofthegroupdiscussions(plenary)

12:45–14:00 Lunch

14:00–15:30 RoundtableSession:ForesightandEuropeanCCAandDRRresearchintegration:Howtoidentifykeyresearchneedsandlinkthemwithongoingorplannedresearchonforesight

Questions

• HowcanweensurethatforesightfindingsarelegitimateandcanbeproperlyusedtopromoteDRRandCCAaction?

• Whatarethemajorareasoffutureworkthatweshouldbeconsidering?• Howcanforesightbeusedtobringafreshlookintolong-termsystem

thinkinganddealingwithcomplexityinCCAandDRRresearch?

15:30–16:00 ClosingSession

Summaryandoutlookbyworkshopchair

ClosingofWorkshop(ZAMGandEAA)


February2017 16

Annex2-ListofworkshopparticipantsFirstname Lastname

Guillaume Rohat

Markus Leitner

Jurek Matthias

Rob Swart

Yiannis Chrysostomidis

Andrea Prutsch

Simona Pedde

Kinkini Hemachandra

Nuwan Dias

Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola

Barbara Chimani

Martin Mayer

Paddy Pringle

Tiago CapelaLourenco

Clive Walmsley

Larisa Semernya

Kerstin Konitzer

Hy Dao

Marleen VanSteertegem

Roland Hohmann

Tobias Lung

Jill Jaeger

Miguel Guerra

Anita PircVelkavrh

Meghna Manaktala

Vincent Viaud

Jelle vanMinnen

Asa Sjostrom

Darja Vrscajd

Ingeborg Auer

Eleni Karali


February2017 17

Firstname Lastname

Chiara Vicini

Kim Dowsett

Cornelia Jaeger

Alexander Storch

Laura Booth

Ana Jakil

Andreas Peer

Lenka Chocholova

Angelika Tamasova

Summary PLACARD Vienna Foresight Workshop draft 170206 · Foresight definition Foresight is a...

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