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Drivers of Rapid Change – Stock take of Literature and

Research on Australian Retail

New Technology

The existing research is increasingly aware that new technology is driving an unprecedented

period of innovation in the retail industry, Australia and worldwide. The recognition of the effects

of the explosion of smartphones and third-party mobile applications, improved

telecommunications infrastructure and the proliferation of social networks on the retail industry

is growing. This is particularly the case in the context of Australia’s high technology adoption

rates, as seen by mobile internet access growth of 45% since 2010.1 There are numerous reports

from the industry that the globalisation of the market through online channels is exposing the

industry to unprecedented levels of competition. 2 This is expected to continue, with Australian

online sales projected to grow by between 10 to 15% per annum over the next three years.3

New technology has introduced a multitude of options, including: platforms for buying and

ordering online, researching and comparing products and prices, product customisation, delivery

methods, collective buying, marketing, pure play niche sites, buying directly from the

manufacturer and for using mobile devices to do all of the above. As the technology becomes

more sophisticated the options will multiply.

A recent IBM report Capitalising on the Smarter Consumer notes that consumers are using

technology to ‘dip in and out of the [buying] process’ rather than browsing through several shops,

finding something and buying it in a continuous sequence.4 Through technology, the retail

experience is becoming a ‘series of moments’ meaning that the retailer’s window of opportunity

to influence consumer decisions is more important than ever.

Interestingly, given the pace of technology advances it is worthwhile noting that the literature

often finds itself out-of-date by the time it reaches the publisher. We also note that the literature

is beginning to broaden its view of the technology drivers of change. Earlier literature (2007-

2009) often equated “new technology” with “online retailing.” More recent research has begun to

address the wider gamut of mobile commerce, social media, tablet computers, virtual shopping

walls and self-service kiosks.

Over the past five years, a considerable amount of the research has focussed on the emerging

business models that make use of these technology innovations. The literature is now becoming

aware of the emergence of pure-play and multi- or omni-channel firms, analysing the successful

strategies of the likes of Amazon.com, ASOS and Kogan. The emerging trend of “mass-

customisation”, made possible through online stores and in-store kiosks, is also being observed

in some of the market research.5

1 eBay, Online Business Index – Survey of Australian Ecommerce Business, (March 2012), p. 12.

2 Australian National Retailers Association, Submission to the Productivity Commission (2011), p.12.

3 Productivity Commission, ‘Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry,’

Productivity Commission Inquiry Report, no. 56, (4 November 2011), p. 73. 4 IBM, Capitalizing on the Smarter Consumer (executive report), 2011, p. 4.

5 Australian Centre for Retail Studies, Australian Consumer Trends: ACRS Secondary Research Report 2010,

(Monash University, 2010), p. 87.

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eBay’s annual Online Business Index: Australia and PayPal’s Secure Insight: The Future of

Shopping, released in March 2012, are the two most recent reports that examine the impact of

new technology on the Australian retail industry. The PayPal report argues that “the challenge

facing Australian retailers is to fully integrate new and old retail channels”6 and that “retailers not

innovating online will likely lose market share”.7 It should be recognised that the authors of these

two reports stand to gain from encouraging the shift online, and therefore focus on presenting

the rationale for change. For example, the report highlights the growing attention that multi-

channel retailers are receiving from equity firms.8 However, from SSA’s perspective, there is

value from strengthening discussions on the development of the workforce, such as the planning

for the skills required to adapt to this transformation, and training retail staff. This was

recognised in the Productivity Commission’s report, which acknowledged the ramifications for the

workforce in relation to the changes within the retail industry. Interestingly, the eBay report found

that only 20% considered “training availability for online businesses” to be a factor impacting

their growth, yet did not explore the ramifications of this.

Globalisation

Industry reports the recent introduction of large foreign retailers to Australia has been an

additional factor of destabilisation. This is reflected in eBay’s report, which found that 68% of

respondents cited increasing competition from international businesses as a barrier to growth.9

While foreign owned firms currently account for only 5% of market-share,10 there is evidence of

growing global interest in the Australian market in light of the introduction of some large

international retailers (eg, Zara, ALDI, IKEA). The Productivity Commission’s inquiry into the retail

industry also noted this trend and quoted CB Richard Ellis’ submission, which explained that the

“transparency of the Australian market, population growth prospects and relatively strong

economic fundamentals”11 are attributable to this growing interest.

A major reason why consumers are spending a smaller share of their incomes on retail goods

(Figure 3.11) is because these goods have become cheaper. China’s economic reforms the

1980s—establishing special economic zones (SEZs) in many of its coastal cities—fundamentally

reshaped global retail supply-chains. A large number of Western firms took advantage of cheap

Chinese labour and SEZs favourable tax regimes, exporting their manufacturing processes

overseas. The steady global supply of inexpensive manufactured goods from China exerted

downward pressure on the wholesale price of manufactured goods.12 While these global

developments have benefitted consumers, manufacturers (rather than retailers) have kept the

lion’s share of associated savings from reduced labour costs.

6 PayPal, Secure Insight: The Future of Shopping (March 2012), pp. 7.

7 PayPal, Secure Insight: The Future of Shopping (March 2012), p. 14.

8 Apostolou, N., ‘Australia’s Retail Revolution’, Charter, vol. 82, no. 5 (Sydney 2011), p. 5

9 eBay, Online Business Index – Survey of Australian Ecommerce Business, (March 2012), p. 4.

10 Ibid.

11 Productivity Commission, ‘Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry,’

Productivity Commission Inquiry Report, no. 56, (4 November 2011), p.18 12

Productivity Commission, ‘Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry,’ Productivity Commission Inquiry Report, no. 56, (4 November 2011), p.54.

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SOURCE: Productivity Commission 'Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry’.

New and Changing Spending Patterns

Consumer habits have changed. The baby boomer generation has become notable for its

uniquely acquisitive spending habits during the boom times of the 1950s to the early 2000s.

However, it is reported that the 2008 global financial crisis has dramatically reduced retirement

savings and altered the consumer psychology. This is evident in 2009’s significant peak in the

household savings ratio after two decades of decline13, as well as below-average levels of

consumer confidence14. The literature has attributed this trend as the cause of the recent

expansion in private-label offerings.15

Purchase preferences have also changed. It is increasingly reported that this decline in

consumption has particularly affected the purchasing of traditional retail goods, compared to

services. 16 The ABS household expenditure survey shows that there is greater discretionary

spending on travel, investment, internet services and communication technology, as compared to

fashion and homewares. The volume of sales at department stores and clothing and footwear

13

Lowe, P. (Assistant Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia), 2011, ‘Changing Patterns in Household Saving and Spending’, presentation at Australian Economic Forum 2011, 22 September 2011, transcript available at <http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2011/sp-ag-220911.html> 14

Reserve Bank of Australia, ‘Chart Pack: Household Sector – Consumer Sentiment’, http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/household-sector.html. 15

Ibid., p. 15; Nenycz-Thiel, Magda, ‘Case Study: Private Labels in Australia: A Case Where Retailer Concentration Does Not Predicate Private Labels Share,’ Journal of Brand Management, vol. 18, no. 8 (February 2011), pp. 624-633; Productivity Commission, ‘Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry,’ Productivity Commission Inquiry Report, no. 56, (4 November 2011), p.16 16

NAB, Online Retail Sales Index Indepth Report: January 2012—Janurary 2012 (2012), p. 1; Lowe, P. (Assistant Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia), 2011, ‘Changing Patterns in Household Saving and Spending’, presentation at Australian Economic Forum 2011, 22 September 2011, transcript available at <http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2011/sp-ag-220911.html>

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retailers has declined by about 6% since early 2009.17 This has led some commentators to

speculate that consumers increasingly favour buying for experience and connectivity, rather than

for enhancing personal image and status.

The changing seller-buyer relationship

Increasing options for purchasing afforded by recent innovations has altered the dynamic

between the seller and the buyer. Customers have more power with greater access to

information, global outlets, self service, and customisation. There are also more avenues for

education and protection of consumer rights.

The literature predominantly documents the ways in which this relationship change has occurred,

with greater price transparency and product information as a result of online research and in-

store research on mobile devices. The increasingly informed consumer is analysed in the

literature as Research Online Purchase Offline (ROPO) consumers.18 The literature confirms that

this trend is the case with the Nielsen’s 2010-2011 Online Consumer Report showing that 73%

of Australians fall into this category.19

The effect of this trend on the retailer has not been explored in the literature; however SSA has

noted in its Environmental Scan 2012 that industry reports an emerging redefinition of the role of

the sales assistant. An aspect of the role of the sales assistant has always incorporated

imparting product knowledge; however this role is increasingly becoming redundant as it

becomes displaced by online research and in-store kiosks or devices. Industry feedback has

suggested that the role of the sales assistant has subsequently focused on the experience of the

purchase and more sophisticated service provision. The IBM report characterises these

changing customer expectations of retailers as “serve me, don’t sell to me”, “listen to me”, “know

me” and “empower me”. Combined, these create what IBM terms ‘smarter retailing’ which

requires a different mindset from retailers. Firms need to:

Recognise that customers are not passive recipients, they are active participants in the

shopping process. Give them facilities they need to participate in that process, and make

it feel likeit is your pleasure to serve them.20

The Australian Retail Workforce

The retail industry employed 1,237,000 people as at August 201121. This places the retail

industry as Australia’s second largest employing industry, after the health care and social

assistance industry.

17

Philip Lowe, ‘The Changing Structure of the Australian Economy and Monetary Policy’ Address to the Australian Industry Group 12th Annual Economic Forum (7 March 2012, Sydney). 18

Productivity Commission, ‘Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry,’ Productivity Commission Inquiry Report, no. 56, (4 November 2011), p.94 19

Nielsen, Nielsen’s State of the Online Market: Evolution or Revolution?, Media Release, (Sydney, 9 March 2011). 20

IBM, Capitalizing on the Smarter Consumer (executive report), 2011, p. 7. 21

ABS, 2011, Cat No. 6291.0.55.003, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, Aug 2011.

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Employment within retail is skewed towards younger and female workers. In 2011, 55.8 percent

of employment in retail trade was comprised of female employees and 24.7 percent of retail

employees were aged between 15 and 2422. Furthermore, there is a high level of part-time and

casual work, as well as high levels of turnover. In 2010, 40.3 percent of employees in retail were

classified as casual as opposed to permanent23. Additionally, 53.9 percent of workers were

employed part-time as opposed to full time24. There are also a significant proportion of

employees who are employed in retail alongside further study. The Household, Income and

Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (HILDA) indicated that 44 percent of part-time retail

employees gave ‘going to school, college or university’ as the major reason for part-time

employment, which compares to 24.1 percent of part-time employment across all employees.

These characteristics of the workforce contribute to higher levels of turnover within the industry,

compared to other industries. In 2010, 23.8 percent of the industry had been with their employer

for less than one year, compared to 18 percent across all industries25. While employers in retail

report difficulties in retaining employees in their workplace, it is also believed that many of the

students working in retail tend to leave the industry altogether upon completion of their studies.

However, industry feedback suggests that the remainder of the retail workforce tends to remain

within the industry.

As at February 2011, employment across the retail sub-sectors was concentrated in

supermarkets and grocery stores; followed by pharmaceutical and other store-based retail; and

clothing footwear and accessory retail. This is indicated in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Level of Employment by Retail Sub-sector (2011)

Source: SkillsInfo, ABS Labour Force Survey, Cat. No. 6291.0.55.003

22

ABS, February 2010 to February 2011, Cat No. 6291.0.55.003, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly. 23

ABS, 2011, Cat. No. 6359.0, Forms of Employment, Nov 2010. N.B. This statistic excludes owner managers. 24

Ibid. 25

ABS, 2010, Cat. No. 6209.0, Labour Mobility, Australia, February 2010.

289.8

166.2

144.3

108.7

82.1

81.0

73.1

69.6

62.9

41.5

36.2

26.9

15.8

0.1

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Supermarket, Grocery Stores

Pharmaceutical, Other Store-Based Retail

Clothing, Footwear, Accessory Retail

Specialised Food Retail

Department Stores

Hardware, Building, Garden Supplies Retail

Recreational Goods Retail

Electrical, Electronic Goods Retail

Motor Vehicle Retail

Furniture, Floor Coverings, Houseware, Textile Retail

Fuel Retail

Motor Vehicle Parts, Tyre Retail

Non-Store Retail

Retail Commission-Based Buying, Selling

Retail Trade - Employment Level - Feb 2011 ('000s)

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Projected and recent growth in employment varies across the retail sector. Employment in

department stores has decreased by 18,800 in the five years to 201126. Furthermore, it is

expected to decrease by an additional 8,100 individuals to 2015–1627. Meanwhile,

supermarkets and grocery stores have added 28,300 employees in the five years to 2011.

Further growth of 41,000 people is expected in the next five years to 2015–1628. Similarly,

positive employment trends are likely to continue for clothing, footwear and accessory retail and

specialised food retail. Overall, retail employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.8

percent per annum over the years to 2014–1529. However, Monash University’s Centre for the

Economics of Education and Training (CEET) forecasts employment in the main retail

occupations, sales assistant and retail manager, to decrease by 0.6% and 0.8% over 2009-15.

The National Retail Association (NRA) also predict the loss of between 53,000 and 105,000 jobs

in the industry over the next five years based on the loss of establishments to offshore online

retailers and the stagnation of domestic online sales. The higher estimate for employment loss is

based on a much higher online penetration rate of 12 per cent by 2015 while the lower estimate

is based on an online penetration rate of 8 per cent.30

Figure 2. Projected Employment Growth by Retail Sub-Sector (2010)

Source: SkillsInfo, ABS Labour Force Survey, Cat. No. 6291.0.55.003, DEEWR Trend data

26

ABS, 2011, Cat No. 6291.0.55.003, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2011. 27

Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, 2011, Industry Employment Projections: 2011, retrieved 12 December, 2011, from http://www.skillsinfo.gov.au/skills/IndustryReportsCharts/ 28

Ibid. 29

Ibid. 30

Productivity Commission, ‘Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry,’ Productivity Commission Inquiry Report, no. 56, (4 November 2011), p. 387

41.0

21.0

20.2

13.2

8.9

7.5

3.7

1.7

0.0

-2.6

-3.2

-7.4

-8.1

-10.1

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Supermarket, Grocery Stores

Pharmaceutical, Other Store-Based Retail

Clothing, Footwear, Accessory Retail

Specialised Food Retail

Hardware, Building, Garden Supplies Retail

Motor Vehicle Parts, Tyre Retail

Non-Store Retail

Electrical, Electronic Goods Retail

Retail Commission-Based Buying, Selling

Fuel Retail

Furniture, Floor Coverings, Houseware, Textile Retail

Recreational Goods Retail

Department Stores

Motor Vehicle Retail

Retail Trade - Future Emp Growth (000s) to 2015-16

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The Productivity Commission’s 2011 report also makes the following observations of the retail

workforce:

— Retail employers appear to invest less in training — one quarter of persons employed in

retail in 2009 had undertaken work-related training in the previous 12 months compared

with just over one third of persons employed in all industries.

— Part of the reason for the perception of poor service standards in the industry could be

due to retail jobs often being temporary stepping stones to employment in other

occupations and industries for young retail workers combining study with part time work

in the industry. Compounding this situation is the existence of high labour turnover rates

in the industry. This provides less incentive for employers to develop training strategies

which will contribute to improved employee productivity performance and perhaps

explains some of the attitudinal problems of some workers.

— The retail sector in the future will require a more highly skilled workforce including

employees with good IT skills who have knowledge of website interface technology to

support the move into online retailing.

International Retail Practice – Broad Picture:

There are a range of publications outside of Australia that focus on developments within the

global retail industry. This literature often deals with the same issues affecting Australia:

technology, globalisation, changing consumption patterns, albeit within a local context.

Of particular note is the work of international associations and consortia.

National Retail Federation (U.S)

The reference group highlight the work undertaken by the NRF in particular their Retail means

Jobs campaign which centres around the reality that “1 in 4 American Jobs” comes through the

retail sector. The key communications tool is the NRF website -

http://www.retailmeansjobs.com/. The Retail means Job campaign was positioned around the

US Election and covers the following agenda items:

Encouraging Global Trade

Tax reform

Improvements in visa access for tourism

Modernising aging infrastructure

Flexibility in labour and workplace relations

Innovation and consumer protection through self regulation

Consumer data protection

Increasing consumer value through maximisation of supply chain effectiveness,

combating organised crime and reducing transaction fees

The NRF also has a Research & Education arm – the NRFFoundation. The NRFFoundation

produces two key annual reports. Retail Horizons which looks at customer insights, eCommerce,

human capital, IT, marketing, supply chain management in the U.S. retail industry as well as

identifying key trends affecting the sector in any given year. The group also publishes Retail

Industry Indicators, a comprehensive statistical resource which collates demographic data from

across the industry. These documents are available to purchase for $495 and $100 respectively.

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It is worth pausing to note that the NRFFoundation offers a service to U.S. retailers known as

“Retail Skills Centers.” Working with shopping mall developers, local, state, and government

agencies, schools and colleges, community groups, and local retailers, NRF Foundation

established multiple Retail Skills Centers (RSC) around the country. The Retail Skills Centers

partners bring their expertise and resources to address the opportunities and challenges of the

ever-growing retail industry and help to network and match retailers with qualified and trained

candidates. The role of the RSCs is similar to Australian Industry Skills Council-led workforce

development programs.

British Retail Consortium - http://www.brc.org.uk/brc_home.asp

The BRC runs a comprehensive agenda including one on employment and skills that covers

wages, diversity, EU Employment issues and the position of Retail in society. With regard to skills,

the Consortium’s policy is one of simplicity and industry driven saying that:

The retail sector has an excellent record on training and upskilling its workforce. In 2008,

5,000 retail apprenticeships were completed and 63% of all individuals in the sector

were given training equivalent to 14 working days. The sector also provides employees

with transferable skills which help them progress either within retail or other business

sectors.

Although the BRC welcomes initiatives to address skills shortages, it is important that

proposals do not become unduly burdensome for business and deliver outcomes which

are genuinely useful. The skills landscape should also be made as simple as possible -

this will help large and small retailers alike but is particularly important for smaller

businesses, which have fewer resources and less understanding of the tools and support

available to them. Most importantly, it is vital that the retail sector is not overlooked by

Government as being a vital economic driver of growth and jobs within the UK.

http://www.brc.org.uk/brc_policy_content.asp?iCat=42&iSubCat=625&spolicy=Employment&sS

ubPolicy=Skills

Skillsmart Retail - http://www.skillsmartretail.com/sr/default.aspx

Skillsmart Retail (the UK Sector Skills Council for Retail) is another key producer of retail sector

research. The industry-led group’s mission is to:

Make a compelling case for the recognition of retail skills.

Unite retailers to simplify and improve access to the UK skills system.

Improve the quality of recruits to the retail sector.

Workforce Development – by raising the skill levels of the existing workforce in retail

operations

Much of the organisation’s research focuses on customer service, retail sector productivity,

online retail, UK workforce demographics, perceptions of retail, current and future trends, local

skill needs and retailers’ skill needs. Skillsmart Retail has created profiles of the retail sector and

its workforce in all nine of the English regions as well as data from all four UK nations. This

regional approach informs their workforce development strategies. By focusing on collecting

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up-to-date demographic data about the UK retail sector and the wider workforce the organisation

is able to ensure that its workforce planning is well informed and relevant.

In December 2012, Skillsmart Retail commissioned Oxford’s University’s Institute of Retail

Management to develop a report on Productivity and Skills in Retailing. The report identifies

many of the ‘drivers of rapid change’ discussed in this literature summary: new technology,

globalisation, changing spending patterns, etc. The report notes that in the context of changing

customer needs, UK retail businesses need to pay increased attention to service skills as a core

differentiator.31 The report notes a ‘productivity gap’ between the UK and the US, an issue that

the Productivity Commission also identified in the Australian context. Interestingly, the report

notes that the term “skills shortage” can be misleading and subjective, and that it is better to

think about workforce development strategies in terms of “skills alignment” in the context of

available labour:

It is often better to talk about a poor alignment between the demand for particular kinds

of skills and their immediate availability; which for example amongst young applicants

might include poor work ethic, verbal communication and customer handling skills. And

the demands of ever more productive businesses may work to increase this...poor

alignment may be addressed not just through recruitment.

The report emphasises that retailers should make use of new technology to remove the need for

routinised tasks, allowing employees to focus more on customer service, and that a more

systematic approach is needed to identify and share best practice in social and service related

skills.

31

Skillsmart Retail, Productivity and Skills in Retailing (December 2010) – report developed by Oxford Institute of Retail Management.

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