Summary of GYGA Achievements: Ethiopia

Kindie Tesfaye and GYGA Team

Global Yield Gap Atlas Workshop 22-24 September 2015, Addis Ababa

Agriculture in Ethiopia

• Total area: 1.104 million sq.km

• Population: 90 million

• Agriculture is the major economic sectors

– 43% of GDP

– 80% of employment

– 95% of export earning

• 55 million smallholder farmers cultivating

– 15.4 million ha of land

Heterogeneous Landscape

• Most smallholder farmers reside in the humid cereal-based highlands (59% cultivated area)

• Drought-prone areas accounts for 26 % of total cultivated area

Cereal Production

Cultivated area (15 M ha) Production (28 MMT)

30% 20% 18% 18%

9% 4%

0

5

10

15

20

25Million metric tons

9.8

3.0 2.0 1.6 1.7

1.0 0.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Area (million hectares)

CSA, 2013/2014

Productivity

3.3

2.4 2.3

1.9

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Maize Wheat Sorghum F. millet Teff

Yie

ld (

t/h

a)

CSA 2013/14 report

Estimation of Yield Gaps for Major Crops

• Bottom-up approach – Delineation of climatic zones – Identification of RWS – Data collection

• Daily weather/climate • Dominant soil types • Crop management practices • Actual yield

• Data sources: – National Met office – Central Statistical Bureau – Research centers – Published and unpublished

literature

• Potential and water limited yields simulated

Reference weather stations selected

Data collection at Local Level

Daily weather data

Actual yield

Soil data

Crop management

Achievements in phase-2 • Refining crop simulation results for Ethiopia

– provided the necessary input data and feedback in improving the initial potential and water limited simulation results for maize, wheat, sorghum and finger millet in Ethiopia

• Updating reference weather station (RWS)

– additional weather data were collected for some of the stations for refining the simulation of millet and wheat.

• Sharing GYGA results on international conference – CIMMYT in collaboration with the core GYGA team presented

the results of the project from Ethiopia at the 2014 Water for Food Conference held from Oct. 19-22 in Seattle, Washington, USA.

Achievements in phase-2 • Communicating the results

– Linking of GYGA website with EIAR and MoA websites-ongoing

– Yield Gap Book for Ethiopia

– Journal Article

• Understanding maize yield gap constraints in Ethiopia

– Ongoing project-strong collaboration with TAMASA and other projects within CIMMYT

Implication and Application of the Yield Gap Atlas

Actual Crop Yield Maize Wheat

Sorghum F. Millet

Potential Yield Maize Wheat

Sorghum F. Millet

Water Limited Yield

Maize Wheat

Water Limited Yield…

Sorghum F. Millet

Potential Yield Gap (Yp-Ya) Maize Wheat

Sorghum F. Millet

Water Limited Yield Gaps (Yw-Ya)

Maize Wheat

Water Limited Yield Gaps (Yw-Ya)…

Sorghum F. Millet

Spatial and temporal variability of yields

CV (%) Yp Temporal Spatial Maize 12.3 2 19 Wheat 9.2 2 10 Sorghum 8.6 3 15 F. Millet 5.5 5 16

Yw Maize 10.3 7 30 Wheat 7.8 9 21 Sorghum 6.0 20 39 F. Millet 4.5 13 31

Ya Maize 2.5 13 14 Wheat 1.8 7 14 Sorghum 1.5 21 28 F. Millet 1.3 15 16

Feeding the future population-closing yield gaps

8.1

6.0

4.5

3.2

5.7

4.2

3.2

2.2

4.1

3.0

2.3 1.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Maize Wheat Sorghum F. Millet

Wat

er

limit

ed

yie

ld g

ap (

t/h

a)

100% Yw-Ya

70% Yw-Ya

50% Yw-Ya

Closing yield gaps…

15

26

18

41

33

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Current 70% Yw-Ya 50% Yw-Ya Current + 70%Yw-Ya

Current+50%Yw-Ya

Mill

ion

met

ric

ton

ne

s

Production

Meeting the cereal food requirement by 2050

Population growth

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2013 2025 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns)

Population Reference Bureau (2013)

Population to feed by 2050 by closing yield gaps

70%

162 million

252 million

50%

115 million

205 million

Based on FAO (2012) cereal food requirement (158 kg/person/year) for developing countries by 2050

Annual rate of yield increase required

154

113

86

60

110

81

61

43

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Maize Wheat Sorghum F. Millet

Yie

ld i

ncr

eas

e r

eq

uir

ed

(kg

/ha/

year

)

70%Yw-Ya

50% Yw-Ya

Past yield gains in Ethiopia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Yie

ld (

t/h

a)

Year

MaizeWheatSorghumF. millet

Summary

• Ethiopia has heterogeneous landscape, diverse farming system and fast growing population

• Ethiopia could support the cereal food requirement of its 174 million projected population by 2050 from land that is currently used for the four cereals if it were able to close at least half of its water-limited yield gaps.

• When viewed historically from the experiences of other countries during the green revolution: – the rate of annual yield increase required is higher for the 70%

Water-limited yield gap but within the range for the 50%.

Summary…

• The yield gap atlas could be as a tool to prioritize research and development efforts in increasing the productivity of crops in the different parts of the country.

• Estimating the yield gap of the country’s remaining major crops such as tef

• Go beyond estimating yield gaps-identifying biophysical and socioeconomic constrains that cause the observed yield gaps for the major food crops and how these be addressed in contribute to closing yield gaps and ensuring food security. – understanding maize yield gaps in Ethiopia and Ghana

THANK YOU!