Summary and Recap: CSESs Impact on the PNWImplications for Climate Services in the PNWEd MilesCSES ReviewDecember 3, 2004

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Climate Impacts ScienceDefining the PDO Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate and key natural resources Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature, precipitation, and snowpackExtending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow, forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change on PNW climate and resourcesIdentifying barriers to effective use of climate information and characteristics of adaptive institutions

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CV)Seasonal climate outlook for the PNW

Climate forecasts for use in resource management

Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on ENSO/PDOLong-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecastsNear-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts

Reinstitution of the Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CC)Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow scenarios Climate change streamflow scenarios for water supply planning (bias-corrected, targeted locations)

Client-based research consultancies (e.g., climate change impacts on municipal water supplies)

Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate change on streamflow management

Technical assistance to watershed planning efforts

CSESs Impact on the PNW

Influencing Operations and PolicyCultivated agency interest in information supporting planning for climate variability and change. Evidenced by:Strong attendance at meetings (e.g. fall forecast, climate/salmon, hydrologic scenarios, climate and water policy meetings)Research partnerships and consultancies (e.g., municipal water suppliers, ID Dept of Water Resources, Northwest Power and Conservation Council, USACE, Bureau of Reclamation)Requests for presentations (75+/year)Survey results demonstrating institutional learning in key sectors

Lara - This is different listing from the success stories document (more generic)

A Sea Change in Perceptions1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info1997-98: El Nio and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information about climate variability and in CIG Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning2001/2: 50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIGs work public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts [see below]2003/4: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups [highlighted below]Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change

Impacts on Fisheries Science, Management and Recovery PlanningInformation about PDO and ecosystem regime shifts percolating through Pacific fisheries management agencies International Pacific Halibut Commission, International Pacific Salmon Commission, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council, Pacific Fisheries Management Council, AK/WA/OR Depts of Fish and WildlifeCollaboration on climate and coho life cycle studies with NWFSC (Lawson) and AFSC (Logerwell) 4 paper series led to formal collaboration arrangement with NWFSCProposed NOAA/NWFSC initiative on climate change and freshwater ecosystems (CIG, NWFSC, U. Idaho)WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife salmon management changed to recognize climate uncertaintyOngoing collaboration with Col. Riv. Intertribal Fish Commission CRITFC developed proposed alternative Col. Riv. operating plan based on CIGs streamflow projectionsCurrent PhD work on chinook salmon (Sharma)NWFSCs Oceans and Human Health Initiative collaboration Pilot study of climate change and Snohomish R. salmon recovery planning with NWFSC (Ruckelshaus, Battin, Palmer, Wiley)

Specific Examples of CSESs Influence on Operations and PolicyCSES asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West Coast Governors Climate Change Initiative and write a high-level briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors offices (July 04)

COE/CSES climate change impacts study proposed for the Green River. Larger goal = help draft national guidance for COE incorporation of climate change into project analysis (11/04)

CSES asked by Skagit River System Coop. to develop a watershed-based climate impacts assessment for Skagit Basin (10/04)

Lara - This is different listing from the success stories document (more generic)

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy contdUtilities roundtable from the Puget Sound region established in fall 2004 to discuss the use of climate information in electric utilities management. Will meet 2x/year in March and October (key decision periods).

Northwest Power and Conservation Council adding a climate change chapter to agencys 5th power plan. Looking at implications of climate change for streamflow in the power system.

CSES asked by the COE to prepare memo on climate change impacts to Kootenai River flows as part of Section 7 ESA consultation on White Sturgeon (11/04).

Query from Senator John Kerrys office on legislation needed to help agencies adapt to changing streamflows as a result of climate change (5/04).

Lara - This is different listing from the success stories document (more generic)

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy contdStudies for Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Dept, Tualatin Water Dept, ID Water Dept, Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

Private sector and environmental organizations demanded that OR Water Dept include climate change in long-term planning as a result of CIGs work and media coverage.

Governor Lockes keynote address at state watershed meeting stating that climate change is a major long-term challenge and referencing likely impacts on the PNW (11/19/02).

Climate change added to North Pacific Research Boards Strategic Plan for physical/biological and human dimensions research to encourage systematic study [ala CIG] in North Pacific.

Lara - This is different listing from the success stories document (more generic)

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy contdKey briefings and presentations

Invited speaker at U.K. AAAS/House Science Committee-sponsored briefing on climate change in D.C.; panel member at AAAS special session on climate change (Feb 11-13, 2004) Testimony on snowpack trends before U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (April 26, 2004) 1 hour presentation on climate change before special session of the Idaho Committee on Natural Resources (June 3, 2004)1 hour presentation on CSES, climate change, and decision support before Oregon House Subcommittee on Water (August 9, 2004)

Lara - This is different listing from the success stories document (more generic)

Work with the MediaCSES has established an important and valuable working relationship with local and national media

Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since 97 Major Seattle P-I special report on 11/13/03Stories in San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian

Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBSs The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)

All results to-date based on this model:

Institutionalizing the CSESSince its inception in 1995, CSES has become The leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and change on the PNWA regionally-recognized and widely respected source for information about climate impacts, assessment methodologies, and potential response strategies

This success results directly from the diverse, inter-disciplinary, integrated, and committed research team that makes up CSES

This success has come despite the difficulty of sustaining an interdisciplinary group in a University environment due to:Low SalariesLack of permanent positionsInability to reward non-academic pursuitsLack of permanent University commitment to address problems of PNW

To the Future: Integrated Watershed AnalysisResponding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to real-world watershed planning issues

Implications for the Transition to Operational Climate Services in the PNW Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:

Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications Producing very specific, mutually defined productsBuilding trust with stakeholders over timeDeveloping an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation

The successful delivery of climate services requires the establishment (and maintenance over time) of a middle-man between the providers and users of climate information

Must have research and interpretive/outreach arms, e.g., climate extension serviceIndividual agencies and industries assume operational responsibilities only after products are developed, tested, and demonstrated

Climate Impacts Group naturehumansclimateCLIMATE IMPACTSSCIENCEAdaptation & ChangeExternal StressesManaged Natural Resource SystemsClimate Research Community Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting Anthropogenic climate change projections Diagnostic analysis and interpretation

Institutional Barriers Nature Institutions- Resource Managers Policymakers User Communities

The FutureThe transition to climate services for the PNW, and its ultimate form (University, Govt, Private Sector), remains to be mutually defined by NOAA and CSES.

CAPTION: The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) translates climate information about natural climate variability and human-caused climate change into regionally-specific natural resource forecasts/projections for stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This translation is made possible by climate impacts research, a study of how climate, natural systems, and human socioeconomic systems and institutions interact to determine the regions sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability to climate fluctuations. Through outreach activities, such as specialized resource forecasting workshops, one-on-one consultancies, and high level policy and planning meetings, CIG works to tailor this climate information and provide it to regional decision makers, with the aim of improving regional resilience to climate fluctuations. The institutional adaptation and change that could result in improved resilience is often impeded, however, by institutional barriers, which may also filter incoming information. (Note that institutional adaptation and change can also result from other external stresses on the management system.)