sugiura(River information management and flood … Centre for Water entre for Water HHaazard and...

River information management and flood forecasting River information management and flood forecasting in Japanin Japan

TomonobuTomonobu SUGIURASUGIURA

Senior ResearcherHydrologic Engineering Research Team

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)

IInternational nternational CCentre for Water entre for Water HaHazard and zard and RRisk isk MManagement under the auspices of UNESCOanagement under the auspices of UNESCO

ContentsContents

1. Objectives of river information management1. Objectives of river information management

2. Collection, processing and provision of real2. Collection, processing and provision of real--time datatime data

3. Provision of disaster information3. Provision of disaster information

4. Predicted rainfall4. Predicted rainfall

5. Run5. Run--off analysis and flood forecastingoff analysis and flood forecasting

6. Utilization of satellite6. Utilization of satellite--based rainfall information based rainfall information


1. Objectives of river information management1. Objectives of river information management


11--1 Objectives of river information management1 Objectives of river information management

Images

Water quality

Rainfall amounts

Water levels

River informationRiver information

Refinement of planar dataRefinement of image data

ProcessingProcessing

ProvisionProvision

Centralization of dataRefinement of prediction data

Refinement of contentsImprovement of information dissemination tools

Accurate, reliable and quick collection, processing and dissemination of river information(e.g. rainfall amounts and water levels in rivers)

CollectionCollection

UserUser Increasing the efficiency of river-related work

Enhancing river administration services through information dissemination to the public

Regional FM radio station

The Internet

Radio station

Broadcasting station/CATV

MediaNewspapers

Regional FM radio station

Local municipality/public institution


11--2 Adaptation measures to decreasing loss of life2 Adaptation measures to decreasing loss of life

(1)Adaptation strategies using structures(2)Adaptation strategies in step with local community development(3)Adaptation strategies with emphasis on crisis management

1)Promotion of preparation for responding to large-scale disasters2)Promoting non-structural measures based on new scenarios3)Enhancement of forecasting and warning systems for floods, sediment-

disasters and flood fightingTo conduct such activities as flood fighting, evacuation and emergency restoration in disaster management, it is very important to provide residents and relevant organizations with forecasts and warnings based on the prediction of the precursors, timings and scales of floods, debris flows and storm surges.

(4)Adaptation strategies to avoid drought risk(5)Adaptation strategies to river environment changes(6)Enhancement of observational systems for the impacts of climate change

Since it is difficult to totally protect everything from flood and other disasters, which are likely to be intensified by climate change, adaptation strategies for climate change need to be developed aiming for “zero victims.”Enhancing river information management is one of adaptive measures to decreasing loss of life.

Proposal of specific adaptation strategiesProposal of specific adaptation strategiesClimate Change Adaptation Strategies to Cope withClimate Change Adaptation Strategies to Cope with WaterWater--related related Disasters due to Global WarmingDisasters due to Global Warming (Draft Policy Report)(Draft Policy Report)


2. Collection, processing and provision of real2. Collection, processing and provision of real--time datatime data


22--1 Collection of real1 Collection of real--time datatime data

22--11--11.. Collection of point data Collection of point data (e.g. rainfall amounts, water levels and water quality)(e.g. rainfall amounts, water levels and water quality)

Rain observation by ground gaugesRain observation by ground gaugesTelemetry systemTelemetry system

22--11--22.. Collection of area data (rainfall amounts)Collection of area data (rainfall amounts)Radar rain gaugeRadar rain gauge

22--11--33.. Collection of image dataCollection of image dataCCTV networkCCTV networkFiber optic networkFiber optic network


22--11--1 Rain observation by ground gauges1 Rain observation by ground gauges

Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge

Observation sites

Raingauge

中継局

中継局

中継局

中継局

事務所

県庁

事務所

事務所

事務所事務所

事務所

事務所

事務所

事務所

事務所

事務所

事務所

Diagram of Telemeter Data Collection in Prefecture A

The data obtained by telemeters are consolidated in one site, such as a regional bureau and a prefecturaloffice, through the linking station. Then, they are sent to each office to update the real-time flood prediction calculations.


22--11--1 Telemetry system1 Telemetry system

1752337530825291408101184515916合計

16000000016地下水位

2050325296605329海象

40070000033気象

32513000069252排水機場

9021500001261堰

482150270000185120ダム

395158000026310水質

712500003925取水

56321874000036541886水位

1872100016130128積雪

12038460000295818流域平均雨量

8877115100001326101040882238雨量

合計他所管水資源

機構国土地

理院海上保

安庁気象庁道路局都道府県河川局

1752337530825291408101184515916

16000000016

2050325296605329

40070000033

32513000069252

9021500001261

482150270000185120

395158000026310

712500003925

56321874000036541886

1872100016130128

12038460000295818

8877115100001326101040882238Rainfall amount

Mean rainfall amount in the basin

Snow cover

Water level

Water intake

Water quality

Dam

Weir

Pump station

Weather

Oceanographic conditions

Groundwater level

Total

Japan Meteorological

AgencyRiver Bureau Municipality Road Bureau Maritime Safety

AgencyGeographical

Survey InstituteJapan Water

AgencyOther

organization Total

Number of telemetry stations*1

*1 Stations using a uniform river information system (as of March 2007)


22--11--2 Locations of radar rain gauges2 Locations of radar rain gauges

Radar rain gauges have been installed at 26 locations throughout the country.

The information of 1-km mesh resolution is updated every half an hour and available on the Internet.

The radar data are calibrated using the ground data.


22--11--3 CCTV network3 CCTV network

15,13215,13250250256656666,,5985987,4667,466TotalTotal

9696----46465050OkinawaOkinawa

1,9481,9485252848411,,070070742742KyushuKyushu

1,0261,02640403030299299657657ShikokuShikoku

1,4951,4959999--685685711711ChugokuChugoku

1,5641,56446465555766766697697KinkiKinki

1,7891,7892277101101662662999999ChubuChubu

1,2591,2596666147147525525521521HokurikuHokuriku

2,5122,5129191585811,,2102101,1531,153KantoKanto

1,5511,55164643636610610841841TohokuTohoku

1,8921,892171755557257251,0951,095HokkaidoHokkaido

TotalTotalOtherOtherSediment Sediment controlcontrol

RiverRiverRoadRoad

Estimate at the end of March, 2007Estimate at the end of March, 2007

Source: Data collected by Electricity and Telecommunication Office in October 2006

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Regional Development Bureaus and River Offices have real-time access to 3,900 CCTV images available on IP (Internet protocol) network.

CCTV images are used for developing disaster control plans.

Sample image(Yodo River in Osaka on August 14, 2007)

Number of CCTV sets installed


22--11--4 Fiber optics network4 Fiber optics network高瀬川

馬渕川

鳴瀬川

名取川

阿武隈川

赤川最上川

子吉川

雄物川

米代川

岩木川

久慈川

那珂川

利根川

綱走川

常呂川

湧別川

渚滑川

熊野川

紀ノ川

肱川

吉野川

那賀川

四万十川

大野川

番匠川

五ヶ瀬川

小丸川

大淀川川内川

球磨川

大和川

九頭竜川

手取川

留萌川

天塩川

尻別川

後志利別川

梯川

淀川宮川

相模川富

士川安

倍川大

井川

天竜川

豊川

矢作川

奈半利川

加古川

揖保川

芦田川

太田川小

瀬川

鵡川沙

流川

十勝川

皆別川

和天別川

釧路川

山国川

遠賀川

江ノ川

日野川

天神川

千代川

石狩川

円山川

由良川

北川

小矢部川

神通川

黒部川

姫川

関川

信濃川

阿賀野川

荒川

北上川

高津川

松浦川

高梁川

仁淀川

筑後川菊

池川白

川

木曽川

鈴鹿川

江戸川

荒川多

摩川

鶴見川

光ファイバ整備図平成１７年１２月１日現在

一般国道（直轄管理）

河川直轄管理区間

①平成１７年度末現在整備済み

②平成１８年度末予定

③平成１９年度末予定

施工延長

ネットワーク構成

3

10

331

329330

58

10

10

196

1122

2

99

228

37

230

5

36

12

40

39

38

44

1

163

25

8

8

18

8

7

112

4

4

7

48

18

19

1

246

16

17

174

6

15

2

53

9

54

28

201

3

57

沖縄総合事務局

国総研

四国地方整備局

近畿地方整備局

中部地方整備局

北陸地方整備局

中国地方整備局

九州地方整備局

関東地方整備局

東北地方整備局

国土交通本省

北海道開発局Hokkaido Development Bureau

Hokuriku Regional Development Bureau Tohoku Regional

Development Bureau

Kanto Regional Development Bureau

National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management

Chubu Regional Development Bureau

Kinki Regional Development Bureau

Shikoku Regional Development Bureau

Chugoku Regional Development Bureau

Kyushu Regional Development Bureau

Okinawa General Bureau

Lines constructed

National highways (under direct jurisdiction of MLIT)

River sections under direct jurisdiction of MLIT

Constructed at the end of fiscal 2005

To be constructed by the end of fiscal 2006

To be constructed by the end of fiscal 2007

Kyushu

Chugoku Shikoku Kinki

Chubu

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Okinawa

National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management

Kanto

Hokuriku Tohoku

Hokkaido

WDM (east loop, 4.8 Gbps)WDM (west loop, 4.8 Gbps)Ethernet (1 Gbps)Telecommunications carrier's lines, etc.

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT)

River Bureau and Road Bureau have jointly laid fiber optics network lines.

Total:12,046Km(2006)Total:12,046Km(2006)


22--2 Uniform river information system2 Uniform river information system

The uniform river information system aims at sharing and standardizing river administration data including river water levels and rainfall amounts.

River information systems developed by individual regional development bureaus have been integrated into a national river information system. Regional development bureaus can customize the system according to their requirements.

Foundation of river and basin integrated communications (FRICS) developed an integrated river information system.


22--33--1 River disaster prevention information 1 River disaster prevention information Information to be provided

Radar rain gauge data

Telemetry data (water levels, rainfall amounts, etc.)

Flood forecasting and warning

Dam-related parameters (notice of release of water from the reservoir, reservoir water storage, etc.)

http://http://www.river.go.jpwww.river.go.jp//

河川の水位Water level graph

雨量観測グラフHyetographPortal of "river disaster prevention information" website


22--33--2 Data provision via the Internet and cellular phone2 Data provision via the Internet and cellular phone

Numerous improvements have been made since fiscal 2007 such as additional provision of data of prefectural governments and applicability to all cellular phone service companies.

River disaster prevention data such as water levels, rainfall amounts and dam-related parameters have been disseminated since fiscal 2001 via the Internet and cellular phone.

The Internet since April 2001. Cellular phone (since April 2001)*Applicable to multiple carriers including auand Softbank since April 2007.


3. Provision of disaster information3. Provision of disaster information


33--1 1 Hazard map prepared by a municipalityHazard map prepared by a municipality

Image of a hazard mapImage of a hazard map

Hazard map in Kurihashi town

1)General InformationFlood Risk Areas, Types of damage Ways to provide evacuation information (flood forecasts, etc.)Sources of weather information, etc.Evacuation sites, Dangerous areas during evacuation

2)Area-Specific Information (Information for Evacuation) Flood information in other areas than flood risk areas Flood characteristics of rivers, Issues on evacuation ordersEvacuation zone, Tips for evacuationInformation on the facilities for people who are particularly vulnerable to disasters Information on underground malls


33--2 Water2 Water--level display tower, etc.level display tower, etc.

Tokyo and the Edo, Ara, Sumida Rivers

Alti

tude

(m)

Kei

hin

Toho

ku

Rai

lroad

Lin

e

Sum

ida

Riv

er

Ara

Riv

er

Aya

seR

iver

Nak

a R

iver

Ohb

aR

iver

Edo

Riv

er

Sak

aR

iver

Shi

n S

aka

Riv

erJo

ban

Rai

lroad

Lin

e

Mus

ashi

noR

ailro

ad L

ine

Nat

iona

l Rou

te 6

Kita Ward

Arakawa Ward

Adachi Ward

Katsushika Ward

Misato City Matsudo City

The water-level display tower to indicate the current WL of River B with red lights.

Flood water depth (projected)Sign in town


33--3 Awareness program3 Awareness programTo enhance a flood awareness of residents

River information (under normal condition)Residents understand a flood risk, and how to act and where to evacuate in flood.

River information (under abnormal condition)Residents can make an accurate judgment to start evacuation.


4. Predicted rainfall4. Predicted rainfall


44--1 Short1 Short--period rain predictionperiod rain prediction

1 hour 2 hours 3 hours

4 hours 5 hours 6 hours

Short-Period Rain Prediction is issued every 30 minutes to provide forecasts of one-hour precipitation for the next 6 hours with 1-km spatial resolution. Not only changes in rain

distribution, but also geographical factors and numeric estimates are taken into considerations.


44--2 Precipitation 2 Precipitation nowcastnowcast

10 minutes 20 minutes 30 minutes

40 minutes 50 minutes 60 minutes

Precipitation Nowcast provides 10-minute precipitation forecasts with 1-km spatial resolution up to one hour ahead. Since it gives priority to quick forecasting, the precision is not as high as the Short-Period Rain Prediction. However, it is very useful for swift disaster-prevention activities.


5. Run5. Run--off analysis and flood forecastingoff analysis and flood forecasting


55--11--1 Flood prediction by storage function model1 Flood prediction by storage function model

It predicts a runoff volume of the prediction site by a runoff model using the storage function method and a water level by means of the H-Q equation.

Most commonly used in Japan.


55--11--2 Flood prediction by distributed model2 Flood prediction by distributed model

With this method, rain distribution is modeled more precisely in comparison with the Storage Function Model.

It is a physical model which segments a basin into meshes and calculates a runoff volume assuming that rain falls on each mesh.

Q converted to H by the H-Q equation

Flow of water in the ground

Flow in the river channel

Surface flow of water

Rainfall

Modeling


55--22--1 Flood forecasts jointly announced by MLIT and JMA 1 Flood forecasts jointly announced by MLIT and JMA

Forecast DepartmentDistrict Meteorological ObservatoryLocal Meteorological Observatory

Weather information

JMA

Rainfall

Regional Bureaus River Offices

River Information

Water Level

MLIT

1.Flood Alert Information 2. Flood Risk Information 3. Flood Information(Flood-Fighting information (MLIT))

Types of flood forecasting

Press and Broadcast Agencies

GovernmentFlood-Fighting Organizations

Local Residents

Joint Announcement

Japan meteorological Agency Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism


55--22--2 Water levels used to issue flood forecasts2 Water levels used to issue flood forecasts

Example of Flood Forecasts

LeveeLevee


55--22--3 Flood forecasts3 Flood forecasts

Announced to warn of a risk of floodsAnnounced to warn of a risk of floodsFlood warningsFlood warnings

Announced when floods may cause damagesAnnounced when floods may cause damagesFlood advisoriesFlood advisories

Announced to warn of a risk of serious disasters by heavy rain, Announced to warn of a risk of serious disasters by heavy rain, gale, high tide, etc.gale, high tide, etc.Weather warningsWeather warnings

Announced when disasters may occur by heavy rain, gale, high tidAnnounced when disasters may occur by heavy rain, gale, high tide, etc.e, etc.Weather advisories Weather advisories

Flood Forecasts by JMAFlood Forecasts by JMAAnnounced by the local meteorological observatory of JMA in its area of administration.Medium- to small-size rivers other than those designated for flood forecasts

Warnings for Flood Fighting issued by MLITWarnings for Flood Fighting issued by MLITIssued with the purpose for MLIT or the prefectural government to provide flood-fighting organizations with a guideline for their activities.

Warns that floodWarns that flood--fighting organizations need to be mobilized when WL is predictedfighting organizations need to be mobilized when WL is predictedto exceed the Flood Alert WL.to exceed the Flood Alert WL.

Mobilization Mobilization

Warns that floodWarns that flood--fighting organizations need to be prepared for operation, at thefighting organizations need to be prepared for operation, at thesame time, sending information about flood control, providing flsame time, sending information about flood control, providing flood control ood control equipments and materials, securing communication and transportatequipments and materials, securing communication and transportation means.ion means.

PreparationPreparation

Alerts that floodAlerts that flood--fighting organizations need to be ready for operation in case fighting organizations need to be ready for operation in case floods may occur or WL is predicted to increase.floods may occur or WL is predicted to increase.

StandbyStandby


6. Utilization of satellite6. Utilization of satellite--based rainfall informationbased rainfall informationAdaptation measurement in developing countryAdaptation measurement in developing country


66--1 Necessity of satellite1 Necessity of satellite--based rainfall databased rainfall dataIn the countries where river improvements are not sufficient, smooth evacuation from flooding is important for decreasing loss of life and properties. Dissemination of risk by hazard maps, etc. and direction of evacuation by issuing flood forecasts and alerts are necessary.However, in reality, development of a flood warning system in these countries has not advanced properly because of financial difficulty, lack of rainfall data, etc.

Technical issues for flood forecasting

Non real time observation

No data of river discharge


Current SystemCurrent SystemLaunch of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite iLaunch of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite in 1997n 1997Near real time data Near real time data ““3B42RT3B42RT”” since 2002 from TRMM, orbital satellites andsince 2002 from TRMM, orbital satellites and geostationageostationary ry satellites satellites

FeaturesFeatures33--dimensional analysis of rainfall structuredimensional analysis of rainfall structureGlobal coverage including oceansGlobal coverage including oceans

3B42RT:NASA3B42RT:NASAMesh Size: 0.25 degrees of latitude and longitudeMesh Size: 0.25 degrees of latitude and longitude(rectangle of about 30km by 20km on 40N)(rectangle of about 30km by 20km on 40N)Coverage Area: between 60N and 60S latitudeCoverage Area: between 60N and 60S latitudeData Delivery: every 3 hours (not hourly) Data Delivery: every 3 hours (not hourly) NearNear--realreal--time basis with several hours time lagtime basis with several hours time lagftp://ftp://trmmopen.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/merged/mergeIRMicrotrmmopen.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/merged/mergeIRMicro//

66--22--1 Features of satellite1 Features of satellite--based rainfall data (3B42RT)based rainfall data (3B42RT)

JAXA HP

Product name 3B42RTBuilder NASA/GSFC

Coverage 60N～60SSpatial resolution 0.25° 8km 0.25° 0.25° 0.5° 8km 0.25°Time resolution 3hours 30minutes 3hours 1day 3hours 30minutes 30minutes

Delay of delivery 10hours

Timing of data updating Every 3hours（UTC）

Every 30minutes（UTC）

Every 3hours（UTC）

Every 1day（UTC）

Every 3hours（UTC）



Coordinate systemData archive Dec. 1997～ Recent 4days Dec. 2002～ Jan. 2004～ Dec. 2002～

Data source

TRMM-TMIDMSP-SSM/IAqua-AMSR-E,AMSU-B

IR

CMORPH QMORPHNOAA/CPC NOAA/CPC

TRMM-TMIDMSP-SSM/I

Aqua-AMSU-BIR

WGSRecent 2days

60N～60S 60N～60S

15hours 2.5hours

Product of satellite-based rainfall data

NASA HP

Satellite-based rainfall in Tone river in Japan

3B42RT


66--22--2 Accuracy of satellite2 Accuracy of satellite--based rainfall databased rainfall data

R2 = 0.4459

R2 = 0.5263

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Ground-based rainfall data(mm/h)

Sat

ellit

e-ba

sed

rain

fall

data

(mm

/h)

.

Upstream area of sameura dam, area=472km2

Upstream area of ikeda dam, area=1,904km2

0

10

20

30

40

50

12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00

hourly

rain

fall

Ground-based rainfall dataSatellite-based rainfall data

2004/7/30 2004/7/31 2004/8/1 (GMT)

(mm/h)

0

10

20

30

40

0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00

hourly

rain

fall

Ground-based rainfall data

Satellite-based rainfall data

2007/7/12 2007/7/13 2007/7/14 (GMT)

(mm/h)

0

10

20

30

40

12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00

hourly

rain

fall

Ground-based rainfall data

Satellite-based rainfall data

2004/8/28 2004/8/29 2004/8/30 (GMT)

(mm/h)

Comparison with satellite-based and ground-based rainfall of Sameura dam basin

Comparison with satellite-based and ground-based rainfall(major ten flood in 2002-2007)


66--3 Flood forecasting system for developing country3 Flood forecasting system for developing countryOur team is developing a concise flood-runoff analysis software as a toolkit.

This system implements interfaces to input not only ground-based but satellite-based rainfall data, GIS functions to construct flood-runoff models, a default runoff analysis model, and interfaces to display output results.

NASA HP(Satellite-based rainfall)

Rainfall dataRainfall data Flood forecastingFlood forecasting Disaster mitigationDisaster mitigation

Integrated Flood Analysis System


66--4 Modeling function4 Modeling function

L a n d C o v er C la ssifica tio n (G L C C ) IF A S C la ssifica tio nU rb a n a n d B u ilt -U p L a n d U rb a n a rea

D ry la n d C ro p la n d a n d P a stu reIrrig a ted C ro p la n d a n d P a stu re

M ixed D ry la n d /Irrig a ted C ro p la n d a n d P a stu reC ro p la n d /G ra ssla n d M o sa icC ro p la n d /W o o d la n d M o sa ic

G ra ssla n dS h ru b la n d

M ixed S h ru b la n d /G ra ssla n dS a v a n n a

D ec id u o u s B ro a d lea f F o restD ecid u o u s N eed le lea f F o restE v erg reen B ro a d lea f F o restE v erg reen N eed le lea f F o rest

M ixed F o restW a ter B o d ies W a ter B o d ies

H erb a ceo u s W etla n dW o o d ed W etla n d

B a rren o r S p a rse ly V eg eta tedH erb a ceo u s T u n d ra

W o o d ed T u n d raM ixed T u n d ra

B a re G ro u n d T u n d raS n o w o r Ice W a ter B o d ies

G ra ssla n d

W etla n d

W etla n d

F o rest

G ra ssla n d

Intake of digital elevation data Create a basin boundary

Create a river channel network

Set parameter

automatically

automatically

automatically

IFAS creates a basin boundary and a river channel network use of digital elevation data.

IFAS estimates parameter based on the classification that we set up beforehand.

800 634 533 500 382 329 307 290 268 259 290 262

688 580 504 400 352 301 297 290 271 267 253 246

688 547 429 381 340 309 310 294 292 299 300 246

643 510 400 382 358 345 322 314 306 299 300 245

600 471 401 400 376 347 334 320 300 287 273 271

491 452 426 406 385 368 348 318 300 287 291 288

504 495 490 470 447 430 393 355 313 280 268 262

560 569 570 546 512 500 445 384 307 289 265 259

653 672 682 670 623 576 517 500 417 323 291 296

800 806 828 827 731 668 586 597 549 382 297 288

Landuse dataGLCC (USGS HP)


66--5 Example display of our flood forecasting system5 Example display of our flood forecasting systemRiver channel network

Parameter estimation

Hydrograph

Calculation results

Water level of a upper tank River discharge


66--6 On going6 On going worksworks

We hope this system is useful for immediate and efficient implementation of flood forecasting and warning system in developing countries.

Tonle Sap Lake Flood in 2003

Improvement accuracy and resolution of results: Improvement accuracy and resolution of results: to calibrate a set up parameter with some large basinsto calibrate a set up parameter with some large basinsto implement functions united at the distribution time delay to implement functions united at the distribution time delay and updating time of satelliteand updating time of satellite--based rainfall based rainfall (correcting function of satellite(correcting function of satellite--based rainfall using ground based rainfall)based rainfall using ground based rainfall)

Display an inundation depth:Display an inundation depth:to implement a linkage function with an inundation modelto implement a linkage function with an inundation model

sugiura(River information management and flood … Centre for Water entre for Water HHaazard and...

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