Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
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Transcript of Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
8/8/2019 Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
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Sudan:What next?
Governance,
conflict andgenocideBy Rob Kevlihan
Presented at GOAL StrategicPlanning Conference, Khartoum,
Sudan, Sept 2005
8/8/2019 Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
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Sudan: Country Profile
Largest country in Africa, bordering 9other states, straddling the Nile.
Arab (Muslim) dominance in the North,“African” (Christian/Animist) South.
North and South governed separately
under British colonial rule: policy reversednine years before independence in 1956.
8/8/2019 Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
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Conflict Overview
1955-1972 : Civil war in south. Ended withsouthern regional autonomy.
1983: 10 years peace shattered by introductionof Islamic Law and administrative division ofsouth.
1989: Weak government on verge of peace
toppled by Islamist coup d‟etat - war continues. 2003: New conflict in Darfur begins on large
scale. Tactics not new, but scale is.
8/8/2019 Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
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Underlying causes of conflict
War of visions? A conflict of identities.
War of resource control? Oil, natural
resources.
War of political elites? Domestic powerconsiderations paramount?
Centre versus Periphery
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Sudan
Salience ofgeography
- Size
- Infrastructure,the Nile andcommunication
- Desertification &
DroughtSource for map: HRWW, 1998: Sudan: Global Trade, Local Impact, NY:
HRW
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Southern Sudan: Unity orSecession?
GOS - 1997 Peace agreement withSouthern factions mandates a referendum
on southern independence in 2 years.Never occurred.
Machakos process: autonomy for sixyears followed by referendum. Status of
contested areas? Commitment of SPLA to unity?
8/8/2019 Sudan: What Next? by Rob Kevlihan Sept 2005
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Consequences of SouthernSecession
Southern independence: More of thesame vs. Constructing new identities.
Northern rump Islamic state: More of thesame? Ethnic conflict – Darfur, Nubamountains, Beja Congress.
North / South relations? Role of regional actors: „Congo-ization?‟
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Darfur: New conflict dynamic
Conflict dynamics: local battle for land;national battle for control
A separate peace?
Centre vs. periphery dynamics
Attempt to control the centre?
Dynamics with / impact on southernSudan
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Other regions
Eastern Sudan: The role of Eritrea and theBeja insurgency
Nuba Mountains: Consolidation of aseparate peace?
Khartoum: Multi-ethnic city?
Northern Sudan: Nubia