Sudan 2011-“A Ticking Time Bomb”?

Sudan

• Population: 43,939,598 • 10th largest country in

world (largest in Africa) 2,505,813 km2

967,495 sq mi

Civil War and Dislocated People

• 1956- 1972 and again from 1983 - 2005• 2 million killed from Southern Sudan• 4 million dislocated • Refugees ended up in camps in Ethiopia (until

that nation erupted in war) and in Kenya as well as in Darfur and Chad.

Lost Boys

Salva Dut

Landmines Live On

Sudan is believed to be one of the ten most heavily mine affected countries in the world.

Refugee Camps

2005 Peace Agreement

Sudan’s Two Official LanguagesArticle 8:• All indigenous languages of Sudan are national languages and

shall be respected, developed and promoted.• Arabic is a widely spoken national language in Sudan.• Arabic, as a major language at the national level and English

shall be the official working languages of the national government and the languages of instruction for higher education.

• In addition to Arabic and English, the legislature of any sub-national level of government may adopt any other national language as an additional official working language at its level.

• There shall be no discrimination against the use of either Arabic or English at any level of government or stage of education.”

Promises to the South

• Right to greater participation in government• Right to a portion of the oil revenues• Right to hold a secession referendum in 2011

President Omar Al Bashir

National Congress Party (NCP)

Sudan is now Africa’s third largest producer of arms.

Southern Sudan Leadership

Sudan People’s Liberation Army Party (SPLA)

North• Mostly Muslim• Coastal access• Majority of Sudanese

population lives in the north, in urban areas

• Home to 30.89 million -79% of country)

• As many as 600,000 (perhaps 1 million) ethnic southerners live in North– some are already moving to the south.

South• Mostly Christian, or traditional

religions• 60 ethnic groups (pastoralists

to settled farmers)• History of being dominated by

north, and of resistance.• 80% of oil reserves• Land-locked• Greener• One of least developed

regions in the world.• Low literacy • Home to 8.26 million (prob.

higher)

Oil

CHINA

Asian Perspective

• Darfur is a tribal conflict, not a genocide.• It is a “problem of development” hence they

are investing in water projects, roads, and other infra-structure BUT they bring in their own workers.

• China’s role includes oil, arms and investment (as well as SC vote)

Khartoum– Boom town

Chinese Oil Policy

• Described by locals as “damaging to the environment, economy and people.”

• “Rape” of local villages– contamination of water supply, destruction of homes, mass forced displacement, and killings of civilian populations.

• Chinese oil workers now face armed rebellion, kidnappings and killings.

Darfur

Darfur: Burning of Villages

IDP camps in Darfur and Sudan

• 2.6 million IDP’s in Darfur

• Over 250,000 in Chad • Camps are taking on a

permanent nature after five years…

• Traditional villages burned, wells poisoned

April 2010 Elections

• Omar al-Bashir elected with wide popular in north (Kiir elected in South)

• Election observers from EU saw election as flawed but Chinese, Egyptian, African Union, and Arab League observers said it was a “model for transparency and honesty.”

US Policy

• In 1997, the United States imposed economic sanctions, prohibiting trade with businesses in Sudan and prohibiting investment in Sudan by U.S. businesses. (followed expulsion of Osama and coup in 1989 but 1991 harsh penal code and terrorist threats)

• (This has encouraged Sudanese to reach out to Chinese, Malays, and Indians for investment)

• Some experts refer to Algeria, Pakistan, China and Russia as the "Darfur Four": Each of these four countries has major oil investments in Sudan and has opposed the U.N. Security Council's plans for arms and oil embargoes.

Obama Administration Strategy in Sudan

Three core principles: 1) Achieving a definitive end to conflict, gross human

rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur 2) Implementation of the North-South Comprehensive

Peace Agreement (CPA) that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other

3) Ensuring that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.

Voting– The Referendum

• 4 million ballots were delivered

• ½ million Southern Sudanese live in the US, many of whom will vote.

If the South Chooses Secession• A new oil deal needs to be agreed: the bulk of reserves lie in the

south but all pipelines run north.• The north-south border has to be properly demarcated, cutting

through oil producing areas.• Citizenship: where do southerners living in the north belong?• The future of the border states of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan

(and Abyei): these are areas controlled by the north but with significant support for the south.

• An agreement on the sharing of the Nile waters needs to be found.• Grazing and land rights• How to split the $35 billion debt• An independent southern Sudan could have an impact on other

secessionist movements including those in Darfur.• Diversification of economies in South and North

What’s Next?