successful District Cooling development Pär Dalin CEO ... konf... · The main idea of District...

Successful combination of economic growth

and environmental concern

“Free Cooling”/Natural Cooling is crucial for a

successful District Cooling development

Pär Dalin

CEO Capital Cooling Group Chairman of the Euroheat & Power District Cooling group

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 2 2

Introduction

Gothenburg

Honolulu

Critical Success Factors

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 3

Capital Cooling - Introduction • Founded in 2002 by executive management of the Stockholm District Cooling system (1997-2002)

• The leading facilitator in Europe for new District Cooling developments and has been involved in more

than 50% of the Europe's District Cooling developments

• Provides Management & Engineering services to utilities, investors and real estate developers

• Develops & invests in new District Cooling projects such as HSWAC-Honolulu Sea Water Air Conditioning

• Broad experience as executive management for development and operation of District Cooling and

District Heating (DHC) businesses in Sweden, Europe, Middle East and US

• Operates under an effective and proven management model - The Cleaner Environmental Solution®

• Engaged in policy making at national and EU level

• Capital Cooling and the District Cooling solution has received attention from environmentally active

organizations such as the World Wildlife Organization, C40 Cities – Climate Leadership Group ,

Swedish Energy Agency and SymbioCity


The centrally produced district cooling can reach 5-10 times higher energy efficiency than local electricity-driven equipment,

Reduction of CO2 with 5-10 times

“The main idea of District Cooling and SWAC (sea water air conditioning) is to use local

sources for cooling that otherwise would be wasted or not used, in order to offer the local

market a competitive and high-efficient alternative to the traditional cooling solutions.”

” cooling

Production:

Chillers/heat - pump Absorption

Sub - station: Heat Distribution Network

Storage Sourcing: Sea Water, Other natural sources, Waste heat and Electricity

Production: Chillers/heatpumps, Absorption and HEX

ETS: Energy Transfer Station

Customers

Distribution Network

Storage

Fundamental idea of District Cooling

© 2009 Capital Cooling

• 25% market share potential for District Cooling by 2020

• Sweden >25% 2011

• Investments in new DC infrastructure of >80 billion €

• 50 to 60 TWhe of annual electricity usage can be eliminated

• 40 to 60 million tons of annual CO2 savings or 10-15% of 20/20/20

target

• Reduced investments in electricity capacity of 30 billion €

DC Potential - Europe

(Source: EcoHeatCool)

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 6 6

Introduction

Gothenburg

Honolulu



Reference Case – Gothenburg, Sweden Gothenburg centralised District Cooling business was initiated in 2005 and the cooling production

commenced in October 2007

A: Overview of Gothenburg district cooling area

General Information On The Project

Gothenburg is Sweden’s second largest city with a population of

480 thousand people.

The District Cooling project in Gothenburg in co-operation with

Capital Cooling has a business size of 100 MW and 120 GWh

serving approximately 2 million m2 of building area.

Avoiding €10 M of power infrastructure investments.

#4 in size in Europe after Stockholm, Paris and Helsinki

By 2010;

25 GWh/year electricity was reduced corresponding to

21.400 tonnes/year of CO2 savings

Potential market is 250-300 MW (2020)

65 GWh/year electricity will be reduced corresponding to

55-000 tonnes/year of CO2 savings and

20 .000 kg of refrigerants removed

1 km

C

B

A

Gothenburg


Odin

4,75 MW

Rantorget

0,6 MW

Gullbergsvass

4,25 MW

Perukmakaren

5,35 MW

Avenyn

1 MW

Ceres

1,87 MW

Ekenlund

0,8 MW

Odontologen

1 MW

Reservkyla

2,5 MW

Rosenlund

22 MW

Medicinareber

get 2,3 MW

DC system in Gothenburg

Rosenlund

60 MW


Main production plant - Rosenlundsverket

SSEERe = 14,3

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 10

Production mix

2012-04-30 10

SSEERel =14,3

SSEERel =14,3

7 times more energy efficient than building bound alternative

Production

River free cooling

ABS from waste heat

Industrial chillers with river water condenser cooling

Production mix

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 11 11

Introduction

Gothenburg

Honolulu



Overview of Honolulu Harbour and Downtown

12

Benefits from project

Reference Case – Honolulu (HI), USA Honolulu is the capital of the State of Hawaii. Downtown Honolulu has a business density greater

than New York City.

The HSWAC project is in line with President Obama’s environmental initiatives and has

received substantial support from all political instances. The Honolulu project will put Hawaii at

the forefront of green technologies.

General Information On The Project Honolulu

Capital Cooling is one of the main investors in HSWAC (Honolulu Seawater

Air Conditioning) and provides Business Management and Supply

Management functions to HSWAC.

Budget of over $US 250 M.

Start of operational in 2014.

System capacity is 28,000 TR. (100MW)

Contracted customers include financial corporations, international hotels,

banks, hospitals, law firms, IT and telecom operators and public buildings.

Sea water intake on 550 meters depth and 6,5 degree s

84,000 tonnes/year of CO2 savings

Hawaii is l 90% dependent on oil for electricity production

Long term price stability for HSWACs customers

Reduces 77 million kWh electricity annually

Will save up to 178,000 barrels of oil per year

Reduces potable water usage by more than 260 million gallons per year

Reduces sewage discharge by up to 84 million gallons per year 2010-05-13 17

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 13

Production mix

2012-04-30 13

'000

'005

'010

'015

'020

'025

'030

'035

'040

'045

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

En

erg

y v

olu

me [

GW

h]

Distribution of production

Electrical chiller

Absorption chiller

Free cooling

Electrical consumption

Production mix

SSEERel =17

10 times more energy efficient than building bound alternative

Production

Deep Sea free cooling

Industrial chillers with deep sea water condensor cooling to secure tempature product quality

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 14

Example: commercial building

40% of total electricity consumption

with DC 5%

Savings 35%

14

Honolulu: Energy Efficiency with District Cooling / SWAC


District Cooling Systems in

North America

Known Systems: 393

Installed Capacity

(Tons):

3,823,000*

*Based on 316 systems reporting

District Cooling Systems in North America

Robert Thornton,

President & CEO

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 16

Toronto Deep Lake Cooling – Enwave Energy Corp

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 21

Deep Lake Water Cooling commissioned in 2004

75,000 TR capacity

Electricity use reduced by up to 90%

61MW demand & 85M kWh consumption reduced each year

CO2 emissions reduced by 79,000 Tonnes / Year

Eliminates ozone depleting refrigerants, reduces harmful NOx and Sox

Environmental benefits equivalent to removing15,800 cars from the road


Cornell Lake Source Cooling

16,000 Tons Capacity - $58,000,000

Lake source water: 39-41º F

Lake return water : 48-56º F

Campus loop supply/return : 45º - 60º F

Lake source intake pipe:

10,400 ft long, 250 ft deep

Campus S/R loop pipe: 12,000 ft

Benefits:

Efficiency production at 0.1 kW/ton

Fully automated (no operators)

Reduced cooling electricity by 87% - cutting 25 million kwh/yr

Sulfur oxides cut 654,000 lbs/yr

Nox reduced 55,000 lbs/yr

40,000 lbs CFC eliminated

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 24

Critical Success Factors - General

The path to a successful project requires:

A solid Business Project Management Structure – Organization set-up with clear responsibility and mandate that can manage the development within given time and profitability framework

Finance

Market

Technique

Legal, including permits

Supported by:

A standardized and implemented Business Steering and Control Model - Governance model

A robust Business Project Management Process – What, When, How and by Whom

An implemented Risk Management Process

2012-04-30 24

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 25

Critical Success Factors – Permits

For a District Cooling development including Free/Natural cooling/SWAC the most time critical part are the water permits

Water related permits18 month up to 3 or more years, such as

Environmental Impact assessments

Water intake and discharge permits

Sea bed surveys

Off shore easements

Building and shoreline permits

Start the permit processes up front!

Delays will increase costs related to the development organisation

Can jeopardize the credibility in the market/sales process and financing process

2012-04-30 25

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 26

Critical Success Factors – Primary Energy Factor

District Cooling with free/natural cooling from sea, lakes or rivers can show up to 10 times better Energy efficiency and Primary Energy Factor than building bound cooling solutions.

The 20/20/20 target is there but most building codes in Europe does not consider PEF yet, only end-energy use

Certifications of buildings to secure energy efficiency and asset values

LEED certification, first test in Sweden

Energy Star in Australia

Green Data Centre, using Green Grid org and Energy Star certifications

2012-04-30 26

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 27

Thank you!

www.capitalcooling.se

[email protected]

27

http://www.capitalcooling.se/

mailto:[email protected]

© 2009 Capital Cooling 2012-04-30 29

FINANCE

ORGANISATION

TECHNIQUE

MARKET

Risk

Management

Business

Manager

Market

Manager

Tech. system

Manager

DPL

Manager

DPL

Manager

DPL

Manager

Service

Manager

Business Project Management - Structure

A path to a success requires genuine

knowledge about Business Project

Management:

Market

Technique/engineering

Finance

Organization

Risk management

It means understanding exactly how

each project is run, adapted in detail and

tailored in accordance with the client’s

local preconditions and requests.

It means balance of the elements

© 2009 Capital Cooling 30

Business Leads

Pre-feasibility Study

Realisation Business

Development Feasibility

Study Transfer Phase

Operation

Exit/On hold

Business Management (BM)

Investment Direction Decision

Business Management / Portfolio Manager

Investment Decision

Business Project

Manager

Feasibility Study

Team

Business Project

Manager

Business

Development Team

Business Project Realization Organisation

Exit/On hold Exit/On hold Exit/On hold

Prospecting Team

Investment Board/Steering Committee

Exit

Business Project Management - Process

The Business Project Management process consists of six stages with defined tollgates after each

phase.

The Business Project Management Process ensures:

Increase efficiency in design, build, transfer and operation processes

Increase financial profitability

Cut the realization time

Decrease financial, market, technical and environmental risks

Over all high level of business control

Process optimization


Project steering and control models

2010-05-13 31

Customer calculations/ analyses

Nr Fas Område Fastighetsägare Kontakt- Telefon- Fastighets- Objekt Populär- Antal Försäljare Kapacitet Energi Kundbehov / Anslutningsår Inventering

person nummer adress

namn

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 Senare

Företag fastighet Fastighet, 0 0 0 0 Namn kW MWh kW kW kW kW kW

O I S G 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Customer data base

Capital Cooling - Inventeringsmall

* obligatorisk infomation

1. Fastighetsdata Svar Notering

a. Fastighetsnamn *

b. Fastighetens address *

c. Ägare av fastigheten

d. Teknisk kontaktperson *

e. Telefonnummer *

f. Ekonomisk kontaktperson

g. Telefonnummer *

h. Ytor *

Kontorsyta (m2)

Övrigs kommersiella ytor (m2)

Övriga ytor (m2)

Totalyta (m2)

Total yta med komfortkyla (m2)

i. Byggnadsårr *

2. UPPGIFTER ÖVER KYLSYSTEMET Svar Notering

CHILLER 1 2 3 4

a. Fabrikat

b. Typ av kylmaskin *

DS (direktexpansion) (X)

DINS (delvist indirekt system) (X)

FINNS (Fullständigt indirekt system (X)

c. Kyleffekt (kW) *

d. Eleffekt drivmotor (kW)

e. Elförbrukning (MWh/year)

f. Drifttid (h/year)

g. Fullasttid/utnyttjandetid (h)

h. Köldmedium *

i. COP kyla

j COP värme

k. Användning av aggregat *

Luftkonditionering (X)

Datorkyla (X)

Övrigt (X)

l. Kylning av kondensorvärme

Direktkondensering (X)

Kylvattensystem (X)

Kyltorn (X)

Stadsvatten (X)

m. Värmeåtervinning

Återvinning (MWh/year) *

Temperaturer ( O

C)

n. Installationsår kylmaskin (year) *

o. Antal kylmaskiner

p. Antal kompressorer/kylmaskin *

KUNDINFORMATION Kund 0 Fastighet 0 Kontaktperson 0 Telefon 0 Säljansvarig 0

ALMÄNNA FÖRUTSÄTTNINGAR Kalkylränta (Lev) 7,0% Diskonteringstidpunkt (1 jan) 2005

PRISINDEX 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Inflation/ KPI 0,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% KPI-faktor 1,00 1,02 1,04 1,06 1,08 1,10 1,13 1,15 1,17 1,20 1,22 1,24 Leverantör Prisindex 0,0% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% LPI-faktor 1,00 1,02 1,03 1,05 1,06 1,08 1,09 1,11 1,13 1,14 1,16 1,18

FJK kSEK KOSTNAD Present value* 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Kapital kostnad 2 681 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 0 0 Effektavgift (LPI) 1 954 300 305 309 314 318 323 328 333 338 343 0 0 Fastavgift (LPI) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Energiavgift (LPI) 1 628 250 254 258 261 265 269 273 277 282 286 0 0 DoU (KPI) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summa 6 262 987 995 1 004 1 012 1 021 1 029 1 038 1 047 1 057 1 066 0 0 Fjk pris [kr/kWh] 0,99 1,00 1,00 1,01 1,02 1,03 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 0,00 0,00

0,437 ALTERNATIV PRODUKTION kSEK KOSTNAD Present value* 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Kapital kostnad 3 068 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0 Fast DoU (KPI) 1 513 228 232 237 242 247 251 256 262 267 272 0 0 Rörlig DoU (KPI) 199 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 34 35 36 0 0 Elkostnad (KPI) 1 661 250 255 260 265 271 276 282 287 293 299 0 0 Fjk pris [kr/kWh] 6 441 1 008 1 018 1 028 1 039 1 050 1 061 1 072 1 083 1 095 1 107 0 0 AP kostnad [kr/kWh] 1,01 1,02 1,03 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 1,08 1,10 1,11 0,00 0,00 * NuV beräknat till år 2016 758 0,76

0,25 Pris [kr/kWh] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fjärrkyla 1,026 0,99 1,00 1,00 1,01 1,02 1,03 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 0,00 0,00 Alternativ produktion 1,056 1,01 1,02 1,03 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 1,08 1,10 1,11 0,00 0,00

Fjk - Kundkalkyl

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Kylp

ris (

kr/

kW

h)

Fjärrkyla

Alternativ produktion

Durability diagram of cooling production

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000

Time [h]

Co

olin

g p

ow

er

[MW

]

Production

Capacity

Time

Energy balance

INVESTMENTS tkr

Capacity demand 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Customer (MW) 0,0 56,8 69,8 78,6 91,4 96,4 98,4 100,4 Production (MW) 0,0 45,4 55,8 62,9 73,1 77,1 78,7 80,3

Installed prod.capacity (MW) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Control - should be > 0! 0,0 -45,4 -55,8 -62,9 -73,1 -77,1 -78,7 -80,3

Production 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sjösystem 33 463 50 195 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kylanläggning Rosenlund 19 428 25 904 0 6 476 6 476 6 476 0 0 Proj omk. 4 231 6 088 0 518 518 518 0 0 Reinvesteringar 0 0 0 0 2 321 1 420 1 244 1 443 IB Befintlig affär 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum 57 122 82 186 0 6 994 9 315 8 414 1 244 1 443

57 122 139 309 139 309 146 303 155 618 164 032 165 275 166 719 Distribution 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Distribution styrd av kund 0 45 347 13 711 5 266 8 772 4 215 2 104 2 104 Transitering 26 987 26 987 0 0 0 0 0 0 Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Distribution 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Distribution 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum 26 987 72 334 13 711 5 266 8 772 4 215 2 104 2 104

26 987 99 321 113 032 118 299 127 071 131 285 133 389 135 492 Sub stations 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sub station 1 5 000 5 000 5 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 Sub station 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub station 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub station 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub station 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum 5 000 5 000 5 000 4 000 0 0 0 0

Investment calculation

CCE Project and Corporate calculation model

Make changes only in cells with blue text colour!

Project name Fjärrkyla Göteborg 100 MW

Input Sheet period-start year 2007

Sheet period-end year 2031

Fixed value of money (Y / N) y

Calculation rate (WACC) 7%

Year of discount (1 Jan) 2007

Tax base 28,0%

Working Capital/EBITDA 0,0%

Entity (M€ / t€) tkr

Project tkr Real value of money Income Present value 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Capacity/ Effect fee 235 668 0 13 268 16 524 18 724 21 810 23 060 23 560 24 060

Fixed yearly fee 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Energy fee 209 803 0 11 586 14 571 16 539 19 390 20 560 21 020 21 480

Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 445 471 0 24 853 31 095 35 263 41 200 43 620 44 580 45 540

Costs Present value 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Project costs 14 761 4 500 4 500 4 500 2 000 2 000 0 0 0

Administrative costs 31 509 0 926 1 150 1 298 1 518 3 606 3 640 3 675

Sales costs 8 863 0 4 613 1 954 1 320 1 924 750 300 300

Electricity costs (commodity) 46 186 0 2 608 3 238 3 654 4 274 4 521 4 619 4 716

Electricity costs (grid fees) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Heat 3 827 0 216 268 303 354 375 383 391

Fixed O&M 60 228 0 4 476 4 613 4 841 5 161 5 414 5 466 5 523

Flexible O&M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 165 375 4 500 17 338 15 723 13 415 15 231 14 666 14 407 14 604

Investments Present value 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Production 159 325 57 122 82 186 0 6 994 9 315 8 414 1 244 1 443

Distribution 115 208 26 987 72 334 13 711 5 266 8 772 4 215 2 104 2 104

Sub stations (UC) 16 173 5 000 5 000 5 000 4 000 0 0 0 0

Connection fees -126 415 0 -56 725 -31 280 -21 280 -29 100 -12 500 -5 000 -5 000

Rest value 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 171 341 90 891 106 948 -13 338 -5 434 -12 159 144 -1 899 -1 703

Nuv GE

Cash Flow Present value 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014

Income 559 437 0 25 857 32 998 38 169 45 488 49 123 51 208 53 357

Costs 203 800 4 590 18 039 16 685 14 520 16 817 16 516 16 550 17 111

Investments 179 365 92 709 111 269 -14 154 -5 881 -13 424 163 -2 181 -1 995

Sum 176 273 -97 299 -103 451 30 467 29 530 42 096 32 445 36 840 38 241

IRR (%) 15,5% -97 299 -200 750 -170 283 -140 753 -98 657 -66 213 -29 373 8 868

Pay-Back (year) 2014 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 2 014

Disk Cash flow 176 273 -90 934 -90 358 24 870 22 529 30 014 21 619 22 942 22 257

Ack. Disk. Cash flow -90 934 -181 292 -156 422 -133 893 -103 880 -82 260 -59 318 -37 062

Pay-Back (year) 2 017 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001 10 001

Project cash flow tkr Nominal value of money Cash Flow Present value 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Income 559 437 0 25 857 32 998 38 169 45 488 49 123 51 208 53 357

Costs -203 800 -4 590 -18 039 -16 685 -14 520 -16 817 -16 516 -16 550 -17 111

EBITDA (before conn. fees) 355 638 -4 590 7 818 16 312 23 649 28 671 32 607 34 659 36 246

Depreciation (fixed assets & conn. fees) -66 154 -4 171 -7 367 -5 993 -5 314 -4 010 -3 703 -3 472 -3 248

EBIT 289 483 -8 761 451 10 319 18 335 24 662 28 904 31 187 32 998

Taxes -81 055 2 453 -126 -2 889 -5 134 -6 905 -8 093 -8 732 -9 239

NOPLAT 208 428 -6 308 325 7 430 13 201 17 756 20 811 22 454 23 759

Depreciation (+) 66 154 4 171 7 367 5 993 5 314 4 010 3 703 3 472 3 248

Change in working capital (-) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Investments (-) (incl. conn. fees) -179 365 -92 709 -111 269 14 154 5 881 13 424 -163 2 181 1 995

Free Cash Flow 95 218 -94 846 -103 577 27 577 24 397 35 190 24 352 28 108 29 002

Acc Free Cash Flow -94 846 -198 423 -170 846 -146 449 -111 259 -86 908 -58 800 -29 798

Net present value of the project (NPV) 95 218

Internal rate of return (IRR) 12,0%

Pay-Back (year) 2016

Nuv GE

Fjärrkyla Göteborg 100 MW

-300 000

-200 000

-100 000

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Annual cash flow Ackumulated cash flow Disk. ack. cash flow

COSTS tkr

Project costs 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Project cost 1 4500 4500 4500 2000 2000 0 0 0

Project cost 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Project cost 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 4500 4500 4500 2000 2000 0 0 0

Administrative costs 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Administrative cost 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Administrative cost 2 0 0 0 0 0 2000 2000 2000

Administrative cost 3 0 926,0625 1149,956 1297,556 1518 1605,75 1640,25 1674,75

Sum 0 926,0625 1149,956 1297,556 1518 3605,75 3640,25 3674,75

Sales costs 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sales cost 1 0 8512,5 1953,75 1320 1923,75 750 300 300

Sales cost 2 0 -3900 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sales cost 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 0 4612,5 1953,75 1320 1923,75 750 300 300

Electricity

Electricity costs (commodity) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Commodity cost 1 0 2 608 3 238 3 654 4 274 4 521 4 619 4 716

Commodity cost 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Commodity cost 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 0 2607,609 3238,05 3653,662 4274,388 4521,475 4618,62 4715,765

Electricity costs (grid fees) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Grid fee 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grid fee 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grid fee 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Heat 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Energy tax 1 0 216 268 303 354 375 383 391

Energy tax 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Energy tax 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 0 216,08125 268,3231 302,7631 354,2 374,675 382,725 390,775

Sum Electricity 0 2823,6902 3506,373 3956,425 4628,588 4896,15 5001,345 5106,54

Costs budget

Distribution for NuVge / Resultat/I8

Values in Thousands

0,000

0,200

0,400

0,600

0,800

1,000

Mean=176369

0 87,5 175 262,5 350 0 87,5 175 262,5 350

5% 90% 5% 113,2787 239,2389

Mean=176369

Regression Sensitivity for NuVge / Resultat/I8

Std b Coefficients

Värmekostnad/D15 -,02

Säljkostnader/D16 -,02

Projektkostnader/D17 -,033

Adm. kostnad/D14 -,087

DoU prod/D11 -,163

Elpris/D10 -,187

Inflation/D18 ,188

Produktionsinvesteringar/D9 -,388

Distributionsinvesteringar/D8 -,408

Marknadspris/D6 ,757

-1 -0,75 -0,5 -0,25 0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1

Profitability analysis

Risk analysis Risk protocol

Investor financial model

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