SUBSPACE INFERENCE FOR BAYESIAN DEEP LEARNING · SUBSPACE INFERENCE FOR BAYESIAN DEEP LEARNING...

PAVEL IZMAILOV, WESLEY MADDOX, POLINA KIRICHENKO, TIMUR GARIPOV, DMITRY VETROV, ANDREW GORDON WILSON

SUBSPACE INFERENCE FOR BAYESIAN DEEP LEARNING

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WHY BAYESIAN INFERENCE?‣ Combining models for better predictions 📊

‣ Uncertainty representation (crucial for decision making) 🤷

‣ Interpretably incorporate prior knowledge and domain expertise #

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WHY BAYESIAN INFERENCE?‣ Combining models for better predictions 📊

‣ Uncertainty representation (crucial for decision making) 🤷

‣ Interpretably incorporate prior knowledge and domain expertise #

‣ Challenging for Deep NNs due to high dimensional weight spaces 😩

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WHY NOT?


SUBSPACE INFERENCEA modular approach:

‣ Design subspace

‣ Approximate posterior over parameters in the subspace

‣ Sample from approximate posterior for Bayesian model averaging

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SUBSPACE INFERENCEA modular approach:

‣ Design subspace

‣ Approximate posterior over parameters in the subspace

‣ Sample from approximate posterior for Bayesian model averaging

We can approximate posterior of 36 million dimensional WideResNet in 5D subspace and get state-of-the-art results!

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SUBSPACE‣ Choose shift and basis vectors

‣ Define subspace

‣ Likelihood

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w {d1, . . . , dK}

S = {w |w = w + t1d1 + . . . + tkdK

Pt

}

p(D | t) = pM(D |w = w + Pt) .


INFERENCE‣ Approximate inference over parameters

‣ MCMC, Variational Inference, Normalizing Flows, …

‣ Bayesian model averaging at test time:

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p(D* |D) =1J

J

∑i=1

pM(D* | w = w + Pti), ti ∼ q(t |D)

t


TEMPERING POSTERIOR‣ In the subspace model # parameters << # data points

‣ ~5-10 parameters, ~50K data points

‣ Posterior over is extremely concentrated

‣ To address this issue, we utilize the tempered posterior:

‣ T can be learned by cross-validation

‣ Heuristic:

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pT(t |D) ∝ p(D | t)1/T

likelihood

p(t)⏟prior

t

T =# data points# parameters


SUBSPACE CHOICE

We want a subspace that

‣ Contains diverse models

‣ Cheap to construct

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RANDOM SUBSPACE‣ Directions

‣ Use pre-trained solution as shift

‣ Subspace

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�3 �2 �1 0 1 2 3�3

�2

�1

0

1

2

3

Posterior log-densityESS, Random Subspace

�0.0029

�0.012

�0.015

�0.019

�0.025

�0.032

�0.042

�0.055

< �0.055

Predictive DistributionESS, Random Subspace

d1, …, dK ∼ N(0, Ip)

w

S = {w |w = w + Pt}


PCA OF THE SGD TRAJECTORY‣ Run SGD with high constant learning rate from a pre-trained solution

‣ Collect snapshots of weights

‣ Use SWA solution as shift

‣ — first PCA components of vectors

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�0.04 �0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04

�0.8

�0.6

�0.4

�0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Posterior log-densityESS, PCA Subspace

�0.0028

�0.015

�0.025

�0.043

�0.076

�0.14

�0.24

�0.44

< �0.44

Predictive DistributionESS, PCA Subspace

w − wi

w =1T ∑

i

wi

{d1, …, dK} K

wi


CURVE SUBSPACE‣ Garipov et al. 2018 proposed a method to find 2D subspaces

containing a path of low loss between weights of two independently trained neural networks

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�5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

�3

�2

�1

0

1

2

Posterior log-densityESS, Curve Subspace

�0.003

�0.02

�0.047

�0.12

�0.3

�0.76

�1.9

�5

< �5

Predictive DistributionESS, Curve Subspace


SUBSPACE COMPARISON

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�0.04 �0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04

�0.8

�0.6

�0.4

�0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Posterior log-densityESS, PCA Subspace

�0.0028

�0.015

�0.025

�0.043

�0.076

�0.14

�0.24

�0.44

< �0.44

�3 �2 �1 0 1 2 3�3

�2

�1

0

1

2

3

Posterior log-densityESS, Random Subspace

�0.0029

�0.012

�0.015

�0.019

�0.025

�0.032

�0.042

�0.055

< �0.055

�5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

�3

�2

�1

0

1

2

Posterior log-densityESS, Curve Subspace

�0.003

�0.02

�0.047

�0.12

�0.3

�0.76

�1.9

�5

< �5

Predictive DistributionESS, Curve Subspace

Predictive DistributionESS, PCA Subspace

Predictive DistributionESS, Random Subspace


SUBSPACE COMPARISON ON PRERESNET-164, CIFAR-100

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�2.0 �1.5 �1.0 �0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0�2.0

�1.5

�1.0

�0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Curve SubspacePosterior log-density

ESS

�0.4

�0.65

�0.86

�1.2

�1.9

�3.2

�5.6

�10

< �10

�80 �60 �40 �20 0 20 40 60 80

�80

�60

�40

�20

0

20

40

60

80

PCA SubspacePosterior log-density

ESS SWAG 3� region VI 3� region

�0.51

�0.8

�1.1

�1.8

�3.2

�6.1

�12

�25

< �25

�60 �40 �20 0 20 40 60

�60

�40

�20

0

20

40

60

Random SubspacePosterior log-density

ESS VI 3� region

�0.51

�0.8

�1.1

�1.8

�3.2

�6.1

�12

�25

< �25

SGD Random PCA Curve

NLL 0.946 ± 0.001 0.686 ± 0.005 0.665 ± 0.004 0.646

Accuracy (%) 78.50 ± 0.32 80.17 ±0.03 80.54 ± 0.13 81.28


TAKEAWAYS‣ We can apply standard approximate inference methods in subspaces of

parameter space

‣ More diverse subspaces => better performance: Curve Subspace > PCA Subspace > Random Subspace

‣ Subspace Inference in the PCA subspace is competitive with SWAG (Maddox et al., 2019), MC-Dropout (Gal & Ghahramani, 2016) and Temperature Scaling (Guo et al., 2017) on image classification and UCI regression

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SUBSPACE INFERENCE FOR BAYESIAN DEEP LEARNING · SUBSPACE INFERENCE FOR BAYESIAN DEEP LEARNING...

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