Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1...decreases (East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe &...

Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2016 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Area Action Partnership areas Purpose of this brief

1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2016 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2017 on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website.

2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the fourteen Area Action Partnership (AAP) areas to show long term sub-county trends.

3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership and Clinical Commissioning areas are also available on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website along with set of maps for each area showing population change by age group.

4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by AAP area.

5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the AAP areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2016 and he short term period of 2011 to 2016.

Map 1: Area Action Partnerships areas covering County Durham County Council

http://www.countydurhampartnership.co.uk/article/8468/Population-Poverty-and-Deprivation

http://www.countydurhampartnership.co.uk/article/8441/County-Durham-Partnership


http://www.countydurhampartnership.co.uk/article/8441/County-Durham-Partnership

Key Messages

6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+29,102 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-648 people) during this period.

7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+8,756 people) along with positive natural change (+393 more births than deaths).

8. Between 2015 and 2016 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,800 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 352 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.5%/2,448 people.

9. All AAP areas, except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2016 with the largest growth in the Durham AAP of 15.4%/9,033 people and the Derwent Valley AAP with growth of 14.6%/5,900 people. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 4.6%/850 people over the same period.

10. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the 3 Towns AAP (325 more children, 7.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (421 children, 7.1% rise).

11. Eight of the fourteen AAP areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in the 4 Together AAP (691 fewer children, 18.6% fall) and the Teesdale AAP (704 fewer children, 16.5% fall). The East Durham AAP had the largest fall in its number of children will a fall of 2,173 children, a fall of 11.3%.

12. Trends since 2011 in the 0 to 15 age group are similar across the AAPs except for the Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP and the Mid Durham AAP which have had small increases of 0.7% and 1.3% respectively compared to overall falls since 2001.

13. Nine of the fourteen AAP areas have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001. However since 2011 only the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP have seen a rise in this group with increases of 3.8% and 0.7% respectively.

14. Similar to the county and the other sub-county areas all fourteen AAPs have had an increase in the 65+ age group since 2001. The largest percentage increase was in the Weardale AAP which increased by 50.0%, an increase of 773 people. However the largest increase in number was in the Durham AAP with an increase of 3,398 people aged 65 and over since 2001.

15. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the 85+ population in the Great Aycliffe and Middridge nearly trebling between 2001 and 2016, rising from 246 to 671 people, an increase of 172.8%.

Population change by AAP Area

Age group: Overall

16. All AAP areas except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 4.6%/850 people. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1.

Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by AAP area.

17. The majority of growth has been in the Derwent Valley AAP and Durham AAP areas with increases of 14.6% and 15.4% respectively with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP showing the lowest increase of 0.7% over the same period.

18. Since 2011 growth has mainly been in the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP areas with growth of 6.2% and 4.7% respectively with the other areas seeing smaller increases or very small decreases (East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP and Teesdale AAP with falls of 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively). Table 1 below summarises some of these changes

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Durham AAP

Derwent Valley AAP

3 Towns Partnership AAP

Stanley AAP

Spennymoor AAP

East Durham Rural AAP

County Durham

Mid Durham AAP

Weardale AAP

Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP

Teesdale AAP

Chester-le-Street & District AAP

East Durham AAP

Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP

2001 Base

4 Together Partnership AAP

Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change

2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 from 2001

from 2011

3 Towns Partnership AAP 22,588 24,853 25,313 2,725 460 12.1% 1.8%

4 Together Partnership AAP 18,564 17,660 17,714 -850 54 -4.6% 0.3%

Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 41,367 42,258 42,703 1,336 445 3.2% 1.1% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 53,679 54,116 54,411 732 295 1.4% 0.5%

Derwent Valley AAP 40,287 44,951 46,187 5,900 1,236 14.6% 2.7%

Durham AAP 58,467 63,565 67,500 9,033 3,935 15.4% 6.2%

East Durham AAP 92,688 93,626 93,557 869 -69 0.9% -0.1%

East Durham Rural AAP 23,853 25,331 25,776 1,923 445 8.1% 1.8%

Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 26,697 26,954 26,895 198 -59 0.7% -0.2%

Mid Durham AAP 31,973 32,821 33,444 1,472 623 4.6% 1.9%

Spennymoor AAP 20,055 20,730 21,698 1,643 968 8.2% 4.7%

Stanley AAP 30,990 32,769 33,591 2,601 822 8.4% 2.5%

Teesdale AAP 24,459 25,009 24,986 527 -23 2.2% -0.1%

Weardale AAP 8,023 8,351 8,368 346 18 4.3% 0.2%

County Durham 493,689 512,994 522,143 28,454 9,149 5.8% 1.8%

North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,636,800 96,700 40,400 3.8% 1.6%

England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,381,200 6,021,200 2,210,300 11.5% 3.9%

Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 0 to 15

19. Five AAP areas have seen a rise in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, with the largest percentage increase in the 3 Towns AAP of 7.3%/325 children followed by the Stanley AAP with an increase of 7.1%/421 children. The largest percentage fall in this group was in the 4 Together AAP with a fall of 18.6%/691 children while in the East Durham AAP this group has fallen by 2,173 children since 2001, a fall of 11.3%.

Figure 2: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by AAP area.

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Stanley AAP

Derwent Valley AAP

Spennymoor AAP

Durham AAP

2001 Base


County Durham

Mid Durham AAP

Bishop Auckland and ShildonAAP

Weardale AAP

East Durham AAP



Teesdale AAP


20. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing an increase in their child population increased to eight with two areas seeing a slight reversal to the longer term trend of decline. The Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 0.7% since 2011 compared to a longer term decline of 7.7% with a similar change is seen in the Mid Durham AAP with an increase of 1.3% short term and decline of 6.3% long term. The East Durham Rural AAP had no growth from 2001 however, since 2011 the area has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 1.9%/87 children to rise to 4,652.

21. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.1% of the county total population. All AAP areas have also seen falls of between 3.2 and 0.2 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest fall in the Teesdale AAP area of 3.2 percentage points, falling from 17.5% in 2001 to 14.3% in 2011 of the areas total population.

22. The Stanley AAP area had the lowest fall of 0.2 percentage points over this period and now has the highest proportion of its population aged 0 to 15 out of the fourteen AAP areas at 19.0%. In 2001 the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP had the highest portion of children with 21.6%, this has now fallen to 18.6%. Table 2 below summarises some of these changes.

Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 population between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion

2001 2011 2016 from 2001

from 2011

from 2001

from 2011 2001 2016


4,459 4,536 4,784 325 249 7.3% 5.5% 19.7% 18.9%


3,714 3,043 3,023 -691 -20 -18.6% -0.7% 20.0% 17.1%


8,439 7,734 7,788 -651 54 -7.7% 0.7% 20.4% 18.2%


10,332 9,288 8,978 -1,354 -310 -13.1% -3.3% 19.2% 16.5%

Derwent Valley AAP 7,812 8,011 8,306 494 295 6.3% 3.7% 19.4% 18.0%

Durham AAP 8,682 8,336 8,914 232 578 2.7% 6.9% 14.8% 13.2%

East Durham AAP 19,188 17,062 17,015 -2,173 -47 -11.3% -0.3% 20.7% 18.2%

East Durham Rural AAP 4,651 4,564 4,652 1 87 0.0% 1.9% 19.5% 18.0%


5,757 5,174 5,014 -743 -160 -12.9% -3.1% 21.6% 18.6%

Mid Durham AAP 6,086 5,628 5,700 -386 72 -6.3% 1.3% 19.0% 17.0%

Spennymoor AAP 3,662 3,636 3,845 183 210 5.0% 5.8% 18.3% 17.7%

Stanley AAP 5,967 6,054 6,388 421 334 7.1% 5.5% 19.3% 19.0%

Teesdale AAP 4,275 3,832 3,571 -704 -261 -16.5% -6.8% 17.5% 14.3%

Weardale AAP 1,287 1,262 1,172 -115 -90 -8.9% -7.1% 16.0% 14.0%

County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,150 -5,161 990 -5.5% 1.1% 19.1% 17.1%

North East 500,900 462,200 467,795 -33,105 5,595 -6.6% 1.2% 19.7% 17.7%

England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,086,179 590,979 500,179 5.6% 4.7% 20.0% 19.0%


Age group: 16 to 64 (Working age definition)

23. Since 2001 nine AAP areas have seen increases in their working age population (aged 16 to 64). However, since 2011 this trend has reversed with only two of the previous nine AAPs seeing an increase in their working age population: Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP.

Figure 3: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by AAP area

24. The largest increases were in the Derwent Valley AAP, 13.5%/3,414 people rising to 28,782 and the Durham AAP, 12.3%/5,113 people rising to 46,585. The largest percentage fall was in the Teesdale AAP with a fall of 6.0%/313 people, with the largest number fall seen in the Chester-le-Street AAP of 1,312 people, a fall of 3.7%.

25. Since 2011 and as mentioned above only the Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP have seen increases in their working age population, increases of 3.8%/1,711 and 0.7%/88 respectively. The largest percentage fall was again in the Teesdale AAP with a fall of 5.9%/309 people indicating that the majority of the areas decrease since 2001 has been over the last five years.

26. The largest number fall was in the East Durham AAP with a fall of 1,315 people, a fall of 2.2%. This large fall in number is in part due to falling number of children, people aging into retirement and outward migration1 from the area. Since 2011 the figures show that 458 more people migrated out of the area than in to it and it is one of only two AAPs to show a net outward migration since 2011, along with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP which had net outward migration of 131 people.

27. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% from 64.3% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.7%. A similar pattern is seen across the eleven of the AAP areas except for the Chester-le-Street AAP, Teesdale AAP and the Weardale AAP which have shown more steady declines year on year since 2001.

1 Migration figures are derived from a best fit approach of MSOAs to AAPs. As these boundaries are not co-terminus there is a great deal of overlap and repetition within neighbouring AAPs. Therefore these figures are indicative only as it is possible that the data in a particular overlapping MSOA refers to a neighbouring AAP.

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Derwent Valley AAP

Durham AAP


Stanley AAP


County Durham

Bishop Auckland andShildon AAPSpennymoor AAP

East Durham AAP

Mid Durham AAP

2001 Base

Teesdale AAP

Great Aycliffe & MiddridgeAAPChester-le-Street & DistrictAAP4 Together PartnershipAAPWeardale AAP

28. Since 2001 only the East Durham AAP has seen an increase in the proportion of its working age population, an increase of 0.5 percentage points despite seeing the number of people in this age group fall as detailed above. The Weardale AAP had the largest fall in proportion of 6.4 percentage points, falling to 58.3% in 2016. Table 3 below summarises some of these changes.

Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 (working age) population between 2001, 2011 and 2016


2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011

from 2001

from 2011 2001 2016

3 Towns Partnership AAP 14,039 15,851 15,437 1,398 -414 10.0% -2.6% 62.2% 61.0%


11,496 11,175 10,880 -616 -295 -5.4% -2.6% 61.9% 61.4%


25,707 26,929 26,325 618 -604 2.4% -2.2% 62.1% 61.6%


35,046 34,544 33,734 -1,312 -810 -3.7% -2.3% 65.3% 62.0%

Derwent Valley AAP 25,368 28,876 28,782 3,414 -94 13.5% -0.3% 63.0% 62.3%

Durham AAP 41,472 44,874 46,585 5,113 1,711 12.3% 3.8% 70.9% 69.0%

East Durham AAP 57,717 59,995 58,680 963 -1,315 1.7% -2.2% 62.3% 62.7%

East Durham Rural AAP 15,451 16,106 15,949 497 -157 3.2% -1.0% 64.8% 61.9%


17,007 17,032 16,381 -626 -651 -3.7% -3.8% 63.7% 60.9%

Mid Durham AAP 20,594 21,237 20,793 200 -443 1.0% -2.1% 64.4% 62.2%

Spennymoor AAP 13,172 13,372 13,460 289 88 2.2% 0.7% 65.7% 62.0%

Stanley AAP 19,848 21,086 20,785 937 -301 4.7% -1.4% 64.0% 61.9%

Teesdale AAP 15,459 15,558 14,907 -552 -651 -3.6% -4.2% 63.2% 59.7%

Weardale AAP 5,189 5,185 4,877 -313 -309 -6.0% -5.9% 64.7% 58.3%

County Durham 317,565 331,820 327,575 10,010 -4,245 3.2% -1.3% 64.3% 62.7%

North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,661,447 41,447 -20,253 2.6% -1.2% 63.8% 63.0%

England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,777,560 3,254,360 488,660 9.7% 1.3% 64.0% 63.0%


Age group: 65+

29. As with the county and other areas across the country all AAP areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with the largest percentage increase in the Weardale AAP of 50.0%/773 people.

Figure 4: % change since 2001 in the 65+ age group by AAP area

30. However the largest increases in the number of older people have been in the Durham AAP which increased by 3,688 people to 12,001, an increase of 44.4% and the Chester-le-Street AAP which increased by 3,398 people to 11,699, an increase of 40.9%.

31. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 16.6% to 20.2% of the county total population. All AAP areas have seen increases of between 2.0 and 8.4 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 8.4 percentage points seen in Weardale AAP, however it is important to note that this AAP had the lowest number of people aged 65+ in 2016 with 2,320 people, increasing the proportion in this area to 27.7% from 19.3% in 2001.

32. Although the Durham AAP had the largest increase in number in the age group this AAP still has the lowest proportion of its population in this group 17.8% in 2016, up from 14.2% in 2001. Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.

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Weardale AAP

Durham AAP

Chester-le-Street & DistrictAAPGreat Aycliffe & MiddridgeAAPEast Durham Rural AAP

Teesdale AAP

Spennymoor AAP

Mid Durham AAP

County Durham

Derwent Valley AAP


Stanley AAP

Bishop Auckland andShildon AAP4 Together Partnership AAP

East Durham AAP

Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016


2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 from 2001

from 2011 2001 2016


4,090 4,466 5,091 1,002 625 24.5% 14.0% 18.1% 20.1%


3,354 3,442 3,811 457 369 13.6% 10.7% 18.1% 21.5%


7,221 7,595 8,590 1,369 995 19.0% 13.1% 17.5% 20.1%


8,301 10,284 11,699 3,398 1,415 40.9% 13.8% 15.5% 21.5%

Derwent Valley AAP

7,107 8,064 9,099 1,992 1,035 28.0% 12.8% 17.6% 19.7%

Durham AAP 8,313 10,355 12,001 3,688 1,646 44.4% 15.9% 14.2% 17.8%

East Durham AAP 15,783 16,569 17,862 2,079 1,293 13.2% 7.8% 17.0% 19.1%


3,751 4,660 5,176 1,425 515 38.0% 11.1% 15.7% 20.1%


3,933 4,748 5,500 1,567 752 39.8% 15.8% 14.7% 20.4%

Mid Durham AAP 5,293 5,956 6,951 1,658 995 31.3% 16.7% 16.6% 20.8%

Spennymoor AAP 3,221 3,723 4,392 1,171 670 36.3% 18.0% 16.1% 20.2%

Stanley AAP 5,175 5,629 6,418 1,243 789 24.0% 14.0% 16.7% 19.1%

Teesdale AAP 4,725 5,619 6,508 1,783 889 37.7% 15.8% 19.3% 26.0%

Weardale AAP 1,547 1,903 2,320 773 416 50.0% 21.9% 19.3% 27.7%

County Durham 81,813 93,014 105,418 23,605 12,404 28.9% 13.3% 16.6% 20.2%

North East 419,200 452,600 507,606 88,406 55,006 21.1% 12.2% 16.5% 19.3%

England & Wales 1,017,500 9,296,100 10,517,478 9,499,978 1,221,378 933.7% 13.1% 1.9% 18.0%


Age group: 85+

33. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic and are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. All AAP areas have seen increases since 2001, although due to the smaller number involved the percentage changes range from increases of 5.0% to 172.8%.

Figure 5: % change since 2001 in the 85+ age group by AAP area

34. The largest increase in this group was in the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP, an increase of 172.8% from 2001 which increased the number of people aged 85 and over from 246 to 671 in 2016. The 3 Towns AAP only increased by 5.0% over the same period, an increase of 27 people.

35. This trend is also seen over the shorter term period since 2011 except for the 3 Towns AAP which is the only area to see this age group fall over this period, a fall of 3.6%/21 people since 2011. The Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP increase by 35.0%/174 people over this same period. The table below summarises these changes.

36. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population and apart from the 3 Towns AAP a similar pattern can be seen across the other AAP areas. Across the 3 Towns AAP the proportion of the population aged 85 and over remained steady at 2.2%, slightly down from 2.4% in 2001. Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.

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Durham AAP

Teesdale AAP

Mid Durham AAP


County Durham

East Durham AAP

Bishop Auckland andShildon AAPDerwent Valley AAP

Chester-le-Street &District AAP4 Together PartnershipAAPStanley AAP

Weardale AAP


Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016


2001 2011 2016 from 2001

from 2011

from 2001

from 2011

2001 2016

3 Towns Partnership AAP 532 580 559 27 -21 5.0% -3.6% 2.4% 2.2%

4 Together Partnership AAP 354 422 445 91 23 25.7% 5.5% 1.9% 2.5%


759 989 1,033 274 44 36.1% 4.4% 1.8% 2.4%

Chester-le-Street & District AAP 897 1,058 1,256 359 198 40.0% 18.7% 1.7% 2.3% Derwent Valley AAP 843 1,073 1,137 294 64 34.9% 6.0% 2.1% 2.5%

Durham AAP 942 1,202 1,455 513 253 54.5% 21.0% 1.6% 2.2%

East Durham AAP 1,455 1,790 2,010 555 220 38.1% 12.3% 1.6% 2.1%

East Durham Rural AAP 389 542 567 178 26 45.7% 4.7% 1.6% 2.2%

Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 246 497 671 425 174 172.8% 35.0% 0.9% 2.5%

Mid Durham AAP 538 715 791 253 76 47.0% 10.6% 1.7% 2.4%

Spennymoor AAP 298 445 477 179 31 60.2% 7.0% 1.5% 2.2%

Stanley AAP 579 703 712 133 9 23.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2.1%

Teesdale AAP 543 740 805 262 65 48.3% 8.8% 2.2% 3.2%

Weardale AAP 198 218 226 27 8 13.8% 3.6% 2.5% 2.7%

County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,144 3,570 1,170 41.6% 10.7% 1.7% 2.3%

North East 43,000 56,300 62,594 19,594 6,294 45.6% 11.2% 1.7% 2.4%

England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,408,727 391,227 140,127 38.4% 11.0% 1.9% 2.4%


How does this topic link to our strategies and plans?

The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the County

Durham Partnership website.

Other links:

Population and Deprivation

Sub-county profiles

Author: Research and Equalities Team

Approver: Research and Equalities Team

Published: November 2017

Review: November 2018

Data sources:

http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates

http://www.countydurhampartnership.co.uk/article/8462/Strategies-and-Plans

http://www.countydurhampartnership.co.uk/article/8462/Strategies-and-Plans


http://www.countydurhampartnership.co.uk/article/8469/Profiles

http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates

Appendix 1

Table 1: Population change by Area Action Partnership area - 2001 to 2016

Number (% change from 2001)





Derwent Valley AAP

Durham AAP East Durham

AAP County Durham

2001 22,588 18,564 41,367 53,679 40,287 58,467 92,688 493,689 2002 22,550 (-0.2) 18,388 (-0.9) 41,024 (-0.8) 53,875 (0.4) 40,664 (0.9) 58,230 (-0.4) 92,132 (-0.6) 493,538 (0.0) 2003 22,750 (0.7) 18,466 (-0.5) 41,257 (-0.3) 53,694 (0.0) 41,122 (2.1) 57,970 (-0.9) 91,868 (-0.9) 493,931 (0.0) 2004 23,175 (2.6) 18,594 (0.2) 41,260 (-0.3) 53,677 (0.0) 41,605 (3.3) 57,600 (-1.5) 91,812 (-0.9) 495,147 (0.3) 2005 23,472 (3.9) 18,652 (0.5) 41,527 (0.4) 53,623 (-0.1) 42,034 (4.3) 57,803 (-1.1) 92,233 (-0.5) 497,218 (0.7) 2006 23,759 (5.2) 18,573 (0.0) 41,412 (0.1) 53,833 (0.3) 42,401 (5.2) 58,792 (0.6) 92,463 (-0.2) 499,348 (1.1) 2007 24,162 (7.0) 18,317 (-1.3) 41,744 (0.9) 53,811 (0.2) 43,186 (7.2) 60,045 (2.7) 92,859 (0.2) 502,960 (1.9) 2008 24,517 (8.5) 18,050 (-2.8) 41,925 (1.3) 53,715 (0.1) 43,709 (8.5) 60,776 (3.9) 93,366 (0.7) 505,617 (2.4) 2009 24,649 (9.1) 17,910 (-3.5) 41,850 (1.2) 53,993 (0.6) 44,010 (9.2) 60,990 (4.3) 93,682 (1.1) 507,311 (2.8) 2010 24,717 (9.4) 17,774 (-4.3) 42,086 (1.7) 54,015 (0.6) 44,513 (10.5) 62,698 (7.2) 93,587 (1.0) 510,628 (3.4) 2011 24,853 (10.0) 17,660 (-4.9) 42,258 (2.2) 54,116 (0.8) 44,951 (11.6) 63,565 (8.7) 93,626 (1.0) 512,994 (3.9) 2012 24,811 (9.8) 17,570 (-5.4) 42,265 (2.2) 54,308 (1.2) 45,216 (12.2) 64,131 (9.7) 93,621 (1.0) 514,348 (4.2) 2013 24,885 (10.2) 17,504 (-5.7) 42,375 (2.4) 54,228 (1.0) 45,270 (12.4) 65,676 (12.3) 93,606 (1.0) 515,957 (4.5) 2014 25,011 (10.7) 17,547 (-5.5) 42,461 (2.6) 54,434 (1.4) 45,714 (13.5) 66,002 (12.9) 93,542 (0.9) 517,773 (4.9) 2015 25,107 (11.2) 17,675 (-4.8) 42,616 (3.0) 54,451 (1.4) 45,961 (14.1) 66,283 (13.4) 93,550 (0.9) 519,695 (5.3) 2016 25,313 (12.1) 17,714 (-4.6) 42,703 (3.2) 54,411 (1.4) 46,187 (14.6) 67,500 (15.4) 93,557 (0.9) 522,143 (5.8)

Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Table 1: Continued

Number (% change from 2001)



Mid Durham AAP Spennymoor AAP Stanley AAP Teesdale AAP Weardale AAP County Durham

2001 23,853 26,697 31,973 20,055 30,990 24,459 8,023 493,689 2002 24,003 (0.6) 26,834 (0.5) 31,775 (-0.6) 20,251 (1.0) 31,029 (0.1) 24,638 (0.7) 8,145 (1.5) 493,538 (0.0) 2003 24,194 (1.4) 26,604 (-0.3) 31,697 (-0.9) 20,323 (1.3) 31,166 (0.6) 24,734 (1.1) 8,086 (0.8) 493,931 (0.0) 2004 24,322 (2.0) 26,782 (0.3) 31,535 (-1.4) 20,409 (1.8) 31,396 (1.3) 24,854 (1.6) 8,125 (1.3) 495,147 (0.3) 2005 24,426 (2.4) 26,764 (0.3) 31,566 (-1.3) 20,471 (2.1) 31,575 (1.9) 24,870 (1.7) 8,202 (2.2) 497,218 (0.7) 2006 24,466 (2.6) 26,611 (-0.3) 31,874 (-0.3) 20,476 (2.1) 31,536 (1.8) 24,928 (1.9) 8,224 (2.5) 499,348 (1.1) 2007 24,722 (3.6) 26,665 (-0.1) 32,001 (0.1) 20,525 (2.3) 31,750 (2.5) 24,870 (1.7) 8,303 (3.5) 502,960 (1.9) 2008 24,873 (4.3) 26,623 (-0.3) 32,221 (0.8) 20,541 (2.4) 32,074 (3.5) 24,915 (1.9) 8,312 (3.6) 505,617 (2.4) 2009 24,852 (4.2) 26,744 (0.2) 32,364 (1.2) 20,635 (2.9) 32,217 (4.0) 25,088 (2.6) 8,326 (3.8) 507,311 (2.8) 2010 25,129 (5.4) 26,840 (0.5) 32,640 (2.1) 20,623 (2.8) 32,476 (4.8) 25,144 (2.8) 8,386 (4.5) 510,628 (3.4) 2011 25,331 (6.2) 26,954 (1.0) 32,821 (2.7) 20,730 (3.4) 32,769 (5.7) 25,009 (2.2) 8,351 (4.1) 512,994 (3.9) 2012 25,427 (6.6) 27,015 (1.2) 32,777 (2.5) 20,963 (4.5) 32,856 (6.0) 25,057 (2.4) 8,331 (3.8) 514,348 (4.2) 2013 25,449 (6.7) 26,822 (0.5) 32,871 (2.8) 21,086 (5.1) 32,929 (6.3) 24,971 (2.1) 8,285 (3.3) 515,957 (4.5) 2014 25,566 (7.2) 26,774 (0.3) 32,994 (3.2) 21,265 (6.0) 33,025 (6.6) 25,178 (2.9) 8,260 (3.0) 517,773 (4.9) 2015 25,684 (7.7) 26,820 (0.5) 33,367 (4.4) 21,468 (7.0) 33,332 (7.6) 25,079 (2.5) 8,301 (3.5) 519,695 (5.3) 2016 25,776 (8.1) 26,895 (0.7) 33,444 (4.6) 21,698 (8.2) 33,591 (8.4) 24,986 (2.2) 8,368 (4.3) 522,143 (5.8)

Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Appendix 2

Long Term (2001 to 2016) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level

1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and 2016.

2. Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 47 had positive net migration.

3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 3,411 additional people between 2001 and 2016, an increase of 41.1% from 2001. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 215 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3,196.

4. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 33.2%, (an increase of 3,361 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,255 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 894 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas.

5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004327) with a fall of 858 people and the Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 748 people during this period, falls of 12.7% and 9.3% respectively.

6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (200 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (658 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (1,196 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 448 to its population.

7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2016 with 894 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,255 out of all 66 MSOAs.

8. The area of Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004342) had the highest growth in natural change of 786 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2016 by MSOA

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HordenAcre Rigg and Peterlee Central

BlackhallsPassfield and Shotton

Easington Colliery NorthCockton Hill and Etherley Dene

Cornforth and FerryhillBeamish Ouston and Urpeth

Belmont and CarvilleEasington Colliery South and Eden Hill

Spennymoor North and TudhoeShildon

Dalton-le-Dale and DenesideNewton Aycliffe East

Langley Park Cornsay and SatleyFishburn and Trimdons

Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe SouthChester-le-Street South

Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean…Bournmoor and Great Lumley

Bowes and Middleton-in-TeesdalePelton and Grange Villa

Henknowle and Woodhouse CloseHamsterley and Staindrop

Chilton and Ferryhill StationCoundon and Willington SouthDawdon and Seaham Harbour

Midridge and Woodham VillageLanchester

Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIllAnnfield Plain South and South Moor

Burnopfield Dipton North and TantobieChester-le-Street NorthNewton Aycliffe Central

Stanhope and WolsinghamChester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell

BrandonBarnard Castle and Startforth

Sherburn and West RaintonBrasside and Newton Hall

Annfield Plain North and Dipton SouthEsh Winning and Ushaw Moor West

Medomsley and ShotleySacriston and Waldridge

Bearpark and Witton GilbertBishop Middleham and Sedgefield

Bowburn and ShincliffeStanley North and Kip Hill

Hutton Henry and WingateBishop Auckland and South Church

Shotton CollieryCrook North Howden-le-Wear and…Crook South and Willington North

Cassop and CoxhoeFramwellgate Moor and Pity Me

Gilesgate MoorCraghead and South Stanley

Byers Green and SpennymoorSeaham North and Seaton

Consett West and CastlesideLeadgate North and Consett East

Delves and Leadgate SouthMurton South and South Hetton

St Helens Auckland and West AucklandDurham City

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross

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Medium Term (2011 to 2016) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level

9. At a more local level, two thirds (44) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and 2016.

10. Half of MSOAs (33) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration.

11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 1,538 additional people between 2011 and 2016, an increase of 15.1% from 2011. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 54 and high positive migration into the area of 1,484 more people moving into the area than leaving.

12. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 10.7%, (an increase of 1,304 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 1,607 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 303 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas.

13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004342) with a fall of 487 people and Newton Aycliffe Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 179 people during this period, falls of 7.6% and 3.0% respectively.

14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (97 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (219 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Newton Aycliffe Central it was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (443 more people moving out of the area than in) as natural change added an additional 264 to its population during this period.

15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) area, which had the second highest fall in population from 2001, showed relatively little change between 2011 and 2016 with a fall in population of 72, due to positive natural change of 154 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 226 more people moving out of the area than in.

16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E02004347) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2016 with 349 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of 330.

17. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest positive net migration of 1,607 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004328) had the highest net outward migration figure of 443 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA

Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2016 by MSOA

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Horden

Newton Aycliffe Central

Spennymoor North and Tudhoe

Easington Colliery North

Fishburn and Trimdons

Passfield and Shotton

Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill

Beamish Ouston and Urpeth

Bournmoor and Great Lumley

Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale

Shildon

Cornforth and Ferryhill

Belmont and Carville

Chester-le-Street North

Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central

Langley Park Cornsay and Satley

Chester-le-Street South

Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene

Blackhalls

Barnard Castle and Startforth

Hutton Henry and Wingate

Leadgate North and Consett East

Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie

Stanhope and Wolsingham

Brandon

Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield

Newton Aycliffe East

Bearpark and Witton Gilbert

Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Tow Law

Midridge and Woodham Village

Seaham North and Seaton

Hamsterley and Staindrop

Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South

Sherburn and West Rainton

Bishop Auckland and South Church

Stanley North and Kip Hill

Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside

Medomsley and Shotley

Crook South and Willington North

Annfield Plain South and South Moor

Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll

Lanchester

Pelton and Grange Villa

Dawdon and Seaham Harbour

Henknowle and Woodhouse Close

Annfield Plain North and Dipton South

Sacriston and Waldridge

Murton South and South Hetton

Delves and Leadgate South

Chilton and Ferryhill Station

Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell

St Helens Auckland and West Auckland

Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West

Brasside and Newton Hall

Cassop and Coxhoe

Coundon and Willington South

Craghead and South Stanley

Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me

Shotton Colliery

Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Bank

Gilesgate Moor

Byers Green and Spennymoor

Bowburn and Shincliffe

Consett West and Castleside

Durham City

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross

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Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1...decreases (East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe &...

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