SUB -CORRIDOR ASSESSMENT MACEDO NIA Sub-corridor...

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SUB-CORRIDOR ASSESSMENT MACEDONIA 1 | Page Sub-corridor assessment Orient/East-Med Corridor (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) Key findings Major transport routes in Macedonia, namely former corridors VIII and X as well as Xd are part of the extended OEM corridor and hence part of the TEN-T Network (Image 1). After the completion of the undergoing interventions, the Corridor X in Macedonia is expected to be in full capacity to handle not just the current but also the projected traffic in 2030. In addition, the overall quality assessment of the motorway corridor state of usability is satisfactory. Under the current climate conditions the results of the brief survey conducted in the framework of the Project revealed the most popular threats as preferred by the respondent (Figure 1), which inter alia include: o T5 – Fluvial flooding due to heavy showers, o T3 – Increased ground subsidence, rock fall, landslide, or collapse on transport infrastructure due to heavy showers, and o T18 – Cracking, embrittlement due to thermal expansion; migration of liquid asphalt, asphalt rutting due to heatwaves The most sever consequence on human and rout safety may be equally produced by threat T2 – Erosion and slide of embankments due to heavy showers and threat T41 – Cracking, embrittlement due to frost heave and thermal expansion due to snowfall/blizzards (Figure 3). On the other hand, most sever consequence on route availability / usability, may also be produced by the threat T2, as well as by T9 – Erosion or slides of infrastructure and embankment due to long periods of rain in the catchment area. Threat T3 – Increased ground subsidence, rock fall, landslide, or collapse on transport infrastructure due to heavy showers, may be perceived as most likely to occur under present climate. Respondents to the survey valued far more the human and route safety against the route availability/usability by an average score of 6.5:3.5 (Figure 6). Under current climate conditions, as argued by the workshop participants, the highest risk factor is brought by the threat T2 – Erosion and slide of embankments due to heavy showers (Figure 7). Under such foreseen climate change conditions, the likelihood of occurrence of popular threats (Figure 5) is on average 15% higher than under the current climate conditions. The increased likelihood of occurrence, logically leads to a 15% increase risk of these treats under the foreseen climate change. Workshop participants agree that general hot-spots for any climate change related threat, particularly those related with both pluvial and torrential erosion (T2, T5, and T9), are Corridor X sections that are passing through the gorges of rivers Vardar and Pcinja. Also, prone to climate change threats related with flooding are the low-lying sections of the Corridor X, including section Skopje – Petrovec (Picture 4). In addition, fog was identified as one of the most frequent phenomena that are occurring along the Corridor X in Macedonia and it poses substantial risk primarily for the human safety. The foreseen climate change are posing moderate risk (Figure 8) to the transport infrastructure of Corridor X in Macedonia, regardless the fact that almost all sections of the motorway have been recently rehabilitated or are under construction at present. This is requiring undertaking relevant measures (Table 4) to mitigate or where possible to eliminate these risks.

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Sub-corridor assessment Orient/East-Med Corridor (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)

Key findings

• Major transport routes in Macedonia, namely former corridors VIII and X as well as Xd are part of

the extended OEM corridor and hence part of the TEN-T Network (Image 1).

• After the completion of the undergoing interventions, the Corridor X in Macedonia is expected to

be in full capacity to handle not just the current but also the projected traffic in 2030. In addition,

the overall quality assessment of the motorway corridor state of usability is satisfactory.

• Under the current climate conditions the results of the brief survey conducted in the framework

of the Project revealed the most popular threats as preferred by the respondent (Figure 1), which

inter alia include:

o T5 – Fluvial flooding due to heavy showers,

o T3 – Increased ground subsidence, rock fall, landslide, or collapse on transport infrastructure

due to heavy showers, and

o T18 – Cracking, embrittlement due to thermal expansion; migration of liquid asphalt, asphalt

rutting due to heatwaves

• The most sever consequence on human and rout safety may be equally produced by threat T2 –

Erosion and slide of embankments due to heavy showers and threat T41 – Cracking,

embrittlement due to frost heave and thermal expansion due to snowfall/blizzards (Figure 3).

On the other hand, most sever consequence on route availability / usability, may also be

produced by the threat T2, as well as by T9 – Erosion or slides of infrastructure and embankment

due to long periods of rain in the catchment area.

• Threat T3 – Increased ground subsidence, rock fall, landslide, or collapse on transport

infrastructure due to heavy showers, may be perceived as most likely to occur under present

climate.

• Respondents to the survey valued far more the human and route safety against the route

availability/usability by an average score of 6.5:3.5 (Figure 6).

• Under current climate conditions, as argued by the workshop participants, the highest risk factor

is brought by the threat T2 – Erosion and slide of embankments due to heavy showers (Figure 7).

• Under such foreseen climate change conditions, the likelihood of occurrence of popular threats

(Figure 5) is on average 15% higher than under the current climate conditions.

• The increased likelihood of occurrence, logically leads to a 15% increase risk of these treats under

the foreseen climate change.

• Workshop participants agree that general hot-spots for any climate change related threat,

particularly those related with both pluvial and torrential erosion (T2, T5, and T9), are Corridor X

sections that are passing through the gorges of rivers Vardar and Pcinja. Also, prone to climate

change threats related with flooding are the low-lying sections of the Corridor X, including section

Skopje – Petrovec (Picture 4). In addition, fog was identified as one of the most frequent

phenomena that are occurring along the Corridor X in Macedonia and it poses substantial risk

primarily for the human safety.

• The foreseen climate change are posing moderate risk (Figure 8) to the transport infrastructure of

Corridor X in Macedonia, regardless the fact that almost all sections of the motorway have been

recently rehabilitated or are under construction at present. This is requiring undertaking relevant

measures (Table 4) to mitigate or where possible to eliminate these risks.

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1. Transport infrastructure

European core network corridors represent the strategic heart of the trans-European transport

network (TEN-T). One of these corridors is the Orient/East/Med Corridor (OEM) that connects the

maritime interfaces of the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas, allowing optimising the use

of the ports concerned and the related Motorways of the Sea. Including Elbe as inland waterway, it

will improve the multimodal connections between Northern Germany, the Czech Republic, the

Pannonian region and Southeast Europe. It extends, across the sea, from Greece to Cyprus.

Image 1: West Balkan Road Network

With the extension of the TEN-T Network in the EU neighbourhood, the Western Balkans’ road

network became part of the TEN-T Core Network, enabling equal participation to the corridor’s

management mechanisms of the Western Balkans economies. Logically this also expects the same

level of responsibility towards achieving the EU Transport policy objectives and completing the Core

Network in accordance to the EU standards and EU Regulation by 2030, following the increased

climate sensibility of the transport sector.

Naturally this requires a regional cooperation that has been launched in 2004 by establishing the

South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO) as a regional transport organization aiming to

promote cooperation on the development of the main and ancillary infrastructure on the multimodal

Indicative Extension of TEN-T Comprehensive Network to the Western Balkans and to enhance local

capacity for the implementation of investment programmes as well as data collection and analysis on

the Indicative Extension of TEN-T Comprehensive Network to the Western Balkans.

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Major transport routes in Macedonia, namely former corridors VIII and X as well as Xd are part of the

extended OEM corridor and hence part of the TEN-T Network (Picture 1). However, primary interest

of this report is the main Corridor X which inter-connects Serbia and the Republic of Macedonia.

Image 2: Corridor X in Macedonia (Gradsko)

‘Macedonian’ part of the Corridor X (Picture 2) runs from Tabanovce cross-border point on the north,

all the way down to Gevgelija cross-border point on the south, where it reconnects with the TEN-T,

with a total length of 174 km. At present, the remaining ~30 km of this corridor are under

construction (section Demir Kapija – Smokvica) to be upgraded at full motorway profile.

Traffic projection on the SEETO Comprehensive Network for 20301 in the condition of low to

moderate economic growth (in essence ‘business as usual’), are showing that largest section of

corridor X in Macedonia (Gradsko – Udovo), is at the bottom of the list of sections with highest traffic

projections. Namely, this section is estimated to serve in average about 4.800 vehicles/day, which is

almost five times lower than the average for the whole Corridor X reaching around 23.500

vehicles/day for 2030. In comparison, traffic projection for 2030 in the condition of moderate to high

economic growth are higher on average by 12%.

The assessment of the capacity of the existing road infrastructure to handle the existing traffic as

well as the projected one for 2030 is an important issue. Such an assessment is revealing the

bottlenecks and the type and time of the interventions that may be necessary to alleviate them.

According to the REBIS2 study, there are two sections of the Corridor X in Macedonia that represent

present bottlenecks and require some kind of intervention to alleviate those. These sections are from

1 The Regional Balkan Infrastructure Study (REBIS) Update, September 2015 IBRD 2 ibid

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cross-border point Tabanovce – Petrovec and from Demir Kapija – Udovo. North part of the first

section down to Kumanovo was upgraded in 2011 to full motorway profile, while south part from

Kumanovo – Petrovec is currently being rehabilitated with new asphalt. The later section from Demir

Kapija – Smokvica is presently under construction to full motorway profile and is expected to be

finalise by the end of 2017. In addition, the section from Katlanovo – Veles was also rehabilitated in

2013, while currently rehabilitation is underway on the sections Negotino – Demir Kapija and

Smokvica – Gevgelija (Picture 3).

After the completion of the undergoing interventions the Corridor X in Macedonia is expected to be

in full capacity to handle not just the current but also the projected traffic in 2030.

Image 3: Investments in Corridor X 2010 – 2017 (EUR 320 mil)

The overall quality assessment of the motorway corridor3 state of usability is satisfactory. Namely,

the Strategy indicates relatively small number of ground subsidence hot-spots with greater depth

that are having considerable impact on the human and road safety. However, cracking and

embrittlement remain the main problem of the road network.

Road safety is an important element of the transport policies. Most recent data4 are showing that

Macedonia is having higher number of killed per million population that the EU Member State

average, while it is much better than the average of the SEETO region, with only Kosovo having

better ‘score’. In this respect Macedonia has undertaking necessary measures to promote the road

safety, both at national and regional level. Most recent undertaking was the endorsement of the

Second National Strategy for Promotion of the Road Safety 2015-2020. The main objective of the

Strategy is to decrease the casualties by 2020 at the level of EU Member States, with major priorities

including, inter alia, road infrastructure safety. The Action plan for safety road environment is

stipulating measures that include various measures to systemically identify and remove hot-spots, as

3 National Transport Strategy 2007-2017, Macedonian Ministry of Transport and Communication 4 Road Safety Strategy Survey, March 2014, SEETO

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well as to improve the road safety audit. However, the issue of climate change impact on the human

health and road safety, is not part of this Strategy and it remains as an issue for future debate and

elaboration.

Any motorway represents substantial negative impact on the environment both in the phases of

construction and operation. Therefore, various measures must be undertaken to mitigate these

negative impacts, especially during the construction phase. In this respect the environment impact

assessment study of the current upgrade of the section Demir Kapija – Smokvica recommends, inter

alia, reforestation of the damaged forests used for access roads, as well as afforestation of additional

areas to compensate for the lost forest and agricultural land.

2. Climate Concerns

i) Current threats, consequences, likelihood, risks

Current climate conditions along the Corridor X are different. The north part of the Corridor X is

under the Continental – Mediterranean Climate regime. This area is characterised with an alternate

Mediterranean pluviometric regime that is rather dry, with an average annual precipitation being

around 550 mm. Most frequent winds are blowing from north or north-west direction with an

average speed of less than 10km/hour. The average annual air temperature is around 12°C with an

absolute maximum reaching above 41°C. Middle and south sections of the Corridor X are under the

influence of Alternate Mediterranean Climate regime. This regime is providing even less

precipitations and higher average annual temperature that reaches 14°C in Gevgleija, with absolute

maximum in Demir Kapija of 45°C.

Figure 1: Ranking of top threats according to popularity

5850 50

42 42 4233 33 33 33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

T 5 T 3 T 18 T 2 T 9 T 40 T 15 T 22 T 23 T 41

%o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts w

ho

pri

ori

tize

d t

he

th

rea

t

Threat

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Under these climate conditions the results of the brief survey conducted in the framework of the

Project revealed the most popular threats as preferred by the respondents, i.e. threats considered

important by the biggest percentage of respondents (Figure 1).

As seen in Figure 1, threat T5 – Fluvial flooding due to heavy showers, is the most popular among

Macedonian responders to the survey. Main reason for the highest popularity of this particular treat

in Macedonia is the recent fluvial flood from August 2016 that heat the surrounding area of the

capital Skopje. The consequences of this flood were extreme, including casualties and high material

damage, especially on the Skopje’s ring-road. Apparently this psychological effect of this event was

tremendous with the respondents and 58% of them identified it among the most critical threats

Closely related with this threat is also the second-ranked T3 – Increased ground subsidence, rock fall,

landslide, or collapse on transport infrastructure due to heavy showers. Again, the reason for high

popularity of this threat can be allocated to the August 2016 floods that caused temporary collapse

of the Skopje’s ring-road.

The third-ranking popular threat is T18 – Cracking, embrittlement due to thermal expansion;

migration of liquid asphalt, asphalt rutting due to heatwaves. Most probable reason for this could be

associate with the present state of some sections of the Corridor X, which are exhibiting such

elements of distortion, though as elaborated earlier in this report rehabilitation works on this

sections are already finished or underway at present.

Once the most popular threat have been identified, the respondents were asked to weight the

severity of threat’s consequences to route availability/usability and to human and route safety, by

using very simple scale 1 to 4 elaborated in Figure 2.

The respondents are of an opinion that most severe consequence on human and rout safety may be

equally produced by threat T2 – Erosion and slide of embankments due to heavy showers and threat

T41 – Cracking, embrittlement due to frost heave and thermal expansion due to snowfall/blizzards

(Figure 3). If one would consider the possible reasons for such opinion of the respondents, it is most

likely that it arise from the perception of frequency of occurrence of such events on the roads.

Weight

score

Consequences on Human & Route Safety

Hazard Consequences on Route Availability/Usability

1 Negligible impact (a few hours) Negligible impact (light material damage, light

injuries)

2 Minimal negative impact (a day) Accidents causing temporary loss of health

(material damage, slight injuries)

3 Serious impact (several days, up to a month) Accidents causing permanent loss of health

(serious material damage, heavy injuries)

4 Catastrophic impact (> a month of) Catastrophic influence, deadly danger (serious

material damage, heavy injuries, casualties)

Figure 2: Explanation of the key for weighting the treat consequences

On the other hand, most sever consequence on route availability / usability, according to the

respondent’s opinion, may be produced by the threat T9 – Erosion or slides of infrastructure and

embankment due to long periods of rain in the catchment area, and by the threat T2 – Erosion and

slide of embankments due to heavy showers.

Apparently, the psychological effect of the recent August 2016 flood is visible with the weighting of

the severity of the threats, too. Namely, the threat T2 is caused by heavy showers, which were

perceived, among the general population, as the main reason for this flood.

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Figure 3: Severity of the consequences of the threat

Next aspect that the survey explored was the likelihood of appearance of each of the popular threats

identified. Again, respondents were asked to weight the likelihood of these threats under present

climate conditions utilising the scoring system similar to the previous one, only this time the scale is

somehow reversed (Figure 4).

Weight

score Likelihood

4 Often (more than once every 3 years)

3 Sometimes (once every 3 to 10 years)

2 Seldom (once every 10 to 50 years)

1 Very seldom (once every 50 years)

Figure 4: Likelihood of occurrence of the threat

The result of the respondents` opinion (Figure 5) is somehow a surprise, as it showed that threat T40

– Loss of driving ability due to reduced vehicle control due to snowfall/blizzards, is perceived as most

likely to occur under present climate. However, it is most likely their opinion relates to the whole

transport network in the country in general, and not only the Corridor X, which, on one hand, is not

so much affected by the snowfall/blizzards, and on the other hand is meticulously maintained during

the winter period.

Therefore, the second ranked threat according to its likelihood of occurrence, namely, threat T3 –

Increased ground subsidence, rock fall, landslide, or collapse on transport infrastructure due to heavy

showers, may be considered as the real ‘winner’ in this category of the survey.

4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

3.0

2.0

2.5

2.6

3.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

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Figure 5: Likelihood of the threat occurrence under current

climate conditions and under ‘foreseen’ climate change conditions

At the final step in this survey for the climate impact on the transport infrastructure of Corridor X,

respondents were asked to give their personal view on the relative importance of route

availability/usability vs. human and route safety by sharing the 10 points between these two factors,

i.e. creating a kind of ratio. The final result (Figure 6) revealed that respondents value more the

human and route safety against the route availability/usability by an average score of 6.5:3.5. This

ratio indicates high respondents’ appreciation for the human or the route safety that has to be very

carefully considered in situations that could question the route availability/usability.

Figure 6: Relative importance of route availability/usability vs.

human and route safety

Later on, the overall risk was calculated (Table 2) under both current and foreseen climate change

conditions, as a factor of the averaged weight of threat’s consequence severity (Table 1) and

respective likelihood.

3.5

6.5

Route availability/usability Human and route safety

4

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8

3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5

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Table 1: Calculation of the average weight of the severity of consequences

Threat

Severity of

Consequences

on

Availability/Us

ability

Availability

/Usability

Weight

Severity of

Consequences

on Safety

Safety Weight

Weighted

Average of

Severity of

Consequences

[(A*B)+(C*D)]

/(B+D)

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)

T 2 3,0 3,5 3,2 6,5 3,1

T 3 2,3 3,5 2,2 6,5 2,2

T 5 2,6 3,5 3,0 6,5 2,9

T 9 3,2 3,5 2,8 6,5 3,0

T 15 2,5 3,5 2,5 6,5 2,5

T 18 2,5 3,5 2,3 6,5 2,4

T 22 2,5 3,5 2,5 6,5 2,5

T 23 2,5 3,5 3,0 6,5 2,8

T 40 2,0 3,5 3,2 6,5 2,8

T 41 2,2 3,5 2,2 6,5 2,2

Table 2: Calculation of the risk under current and foreseen climate change conditions

Threat

Weighted

Average of

Severity

Consequences

Likelihood

under current

conditions

Likelihood

under Climate

Change

conditions

Risk under

current

conditions

Risk under

Climate

Change

conditions

(E) (F) (G) (E*F) (E*G)

T 2 3,1 2,8 3,2 8,8 9,8

T 3 2,2 3,0 3,5 6,7 7,8

T 5 2,9 2,5 3,3 7,2 9,3

T 9 3,0 2,7 2,8 7,9 8,4

T 15 2,5 2,3 3,3 5,6 8,1

T 18 2,4 2,8 3,3 6,8 8,0

T 22 2,5 2,8 3,0 6,9 7,5

T 23 2,8 2,8 2,5 7,8 7,1

T 40 2,8 3,2 3,6 8,9 10,0

T 41 2,2 3,0 3,2 6,6 7,0

Following the above calculations, the Figure 7 shows that under current climate conditions the

highest risk factor is brought by the threat T40 – Loss of driving ability due to reduced vehicle control

due to snowfall/blizzards, which the respondents perceived as the most likely one to occur with the

risk factor of 8,9. However, as mentioned earlier, the perception of the respondents concerning the

likelihood of occurrence of this threat may not be accurate, therefore it is more appropriate to

consider threat T2 – Erosion and slide of embankments due to heavy showers as the threat with the

highest risks factor for the transport infrastructure under the current climate conditions.

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Figure 7: Risk under current climate conditions and under foreseen climate change conditions

ii) Future risks

Climate is changing, and that is a fact not just for the Planet, but also for the region of SEE and

certainly for Macedonia. According to the latest climate change projections5:

• It is probable that there will be a continuous increase in the temperature in the period 2025-2100

• Compared with the period 1961-1990, the predicted changes for the period 2025-2100, will be

most intense in the warmest period of the year

• It is possible that the average monthly temperatures at the turn of winter into spring will be

levelled in this period

• A decrease in precipitation is predicted in the period 2025-2100, in all seasons and at the annual

level, with the maximum decrease in the summer season

• The intensity of changes is greatest in the warm part of the year (in July and August there may be

no precipitation at all)

• In the cold period of the year, decrease in precipitation of up to 40% of the average monthly

quantities are predicted

In addition to these projections, analysis on extreme weather events for the period 1961-2012,

indicated that the number of summer days has increased significantly in recent years compared to

the beginning of that period. Similarly, there has been a significant increase in the number of tropical

nights in recent years. As well, cold waves occurred much less frequently than heat waves, and there

is a general decline in the number of ice days per year, however with no general change in the

numbers of annual frost days.

Under such foreseen climate change conditions, the likelihood of occurrence of popular threats

(Figure 5) is on average 15% higher than under the current climate conditions. It is even more

obvious that under the foreseen climate change conditions threat T40 – Loss of driving ability due to

5 Third national communication on climate change / [Pavlina Zdraveva, project manager]. Skopje, Ministry of Environment and Physical

Planning, 2014

7.0 7.17.5

7.8 8.0 8.18.4

9.39.8 10.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

T 41 T 23 T 22 T 3 T 18 T 15 T 9 T 5 T 2 T 40

RIS

K F

AC

TO

R

Under current climate conditions Under foreseen climate change conditions

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reduced vehicle control due to snowfall/blizzards, is not so “likely” as perceived by the respondents.

This is also confirmed by the participants at the workshop6, who agree that the likelihood of this

threat is even lower for the area of the Corridor X. However, high likelihood of the threat T18 –

Cracking, embrittlement due to thermal expansion; migration of liquid asphalt, asphalt rutting due to

heatwaves, is fully in line with the foreseen climate change for the Corridor X.

The increased likelihood of occurrence of the popular threats under the foreseen climate change,

logically leads to an increase risk of these treats, which in average is around 15% or similar to the

likelihood increase.

Figure 8: Threat risk under foreseen climate change conditions

The above Figure 8 is showing a very important aspect of the threat’s risk distribution as a function of

their likelihood and severity. It is obvious that the majority of threats are concentrated in the zone of

moderate to high risk (the orange area). This clearly indicates that all of these threats need to be

seriously considered and appropriate mitigation measures have to be undertaken.

In terms of individual threats, the perception of the respondents is pretty much the same under

climate change as it was under present climate conditions. However, as already explained, if the

threat T40 is excluded from this list, then the threat T2 – Erosion and slide of embankments due to

heavy showers, is also having the highest risks factor for the transport infrastructure under the

climate change conditions. Slightly lower risk factor has achieved the threat T15 – Shorter

maintenance windows, decreased lifetime, and increased maintenance costs due to increased

variability in warm/cool days.

During the Skopje workshop, one of the focus of participants’ discussion was the identification of

hot-spots where the top five risk threats may occur (Table 3). Participants agree that general hot-

spots for any climate change related threat, particularly those related with both pluvial and torrential

6 CLIMACOR II Validation Workshop, 10 October 2016, Skopje, Macedonia

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erosion (T2, T5, and T9), are Corridor X sections that are passing through the gorges of rivers Vardar

and Pcinja. Also, prone to climate change threats related with flooding are the low-lying sections of

the Corridor X, including section Skopje – Petrovec (Image 4).

Image 4: Possible risk hot-spots on Corridor X in Macedonia

One important threat that was not on the initial list of the proposed climate related threats, draw the

attention of the workshop participants. Namely, they all agree that fog is one of the most frequent

phenomena that are occurring along the Corridor X in Macedonia and it poses substantial risk

primarily for the human safety and not for the route safety. In terms of hot-spotting, the fog is

possible along the whole route with the gorges and bridges being most prone to it.

T5

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Table 3: Possible risk hot-spots on Corridor X in Macedonia

Threat description Visual presentation of the threat consequences Possible hot-spots on

Corridor X

T40 – Loss of driving

ability due to reduced

vehicle control due to

snowfall/blizzards

Katlanovo hill (section

Veles – Skopje)

T2 – Erosion and slide of

embankments due to

heavy showers

Section Demir Kapija –

Smokvica

Section Petrovec –

Veles

T5 – Pluvial flooding

due to heavy showers

(overland flow after

precipitation,

groundwater level

increase)

Section Skopje –

Petrovec

Section Negotino -

Gevgelija

T9 – Erosion or slides of

infrastructure and

embankment due to

long periods of rain in

catchment

Section Petrovec –

Veles

Section Negotino -

Gevgelija

T15 – Shorter

maintenance windows,

decreased lifetime,

increased maintenance

costs due to increased

variability in warm/cool

days (roads and

railways)

All sections

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3. Recommendations

The foreseen climate change are posing moderate risk (Figure 8) to the transport infrastructure of

Corridor X in Macedonia, regardless the fact that almost all sections of the motorway have been

recently rehabilitated or are under construction at present. This requires undertaking relevant

measures to mitigate or where possible to eliminate these risks. Such measures have been discussed

during the Skopje Workshop and for every single threat on the top-five list. The Following Table 4 is

listing proposed measures linked with relevant threats and hot-spots (Image 4), providing

information on the nature and scope of these proposals.

Table 4: List of measures to mitigate or eliminate climate change risks

Threat description Description of the proposed measure Possible hot-spots on

Corridor X

Tx - Loss of driving

ability due to reduced

visibility due to fog

• Better signalisation – This measure is not

required only to cope with the fog threat, but

will be required to help mitigation or elimination

of other popular threats. Apart from the

standard road signalisation, it is proposed to use

Variable Message Signs (VMS) and dynamic

signalisations, particularly upfront the critical

sections of the Corridor X. These are very

important tools in order to inform road users of

any irregularity or interested situations on the

motorway. Particular attention when utilising

VMS needs to be paid to their harmonization at

regional or European level, as they need to be

understood by all motorway users from different

nationalities, if the traffic flow is to be safe and

easy going.

Section Petrovec –

Veles

Section Negotino –

Gevgelija

All River Bridges

T40 – Loss of driving

ability due to reduced

vehicle control due to

snowfall/blizzards

• Improvement of the maintenance and in

particularly emergency preparedness of the

relevant public service units and provision of the

appropriate equipment, ex. winter service

vehicles, snowplough devices, etc.

Katlanovo hill (section

Veles – Skopje)

T2 – Erosion and slide of

embankments due to

heavy showers

• Improvement of the implementation of the

design project. Though the designers and

engineers are producing solid design projects

with state of the art technology and standards,

main problems appears to be their violation

during the construction phase.

• Introduction of various technical measures,

including setting up of geo- and bio-

stabilisations on the side slopes and

embankments

Section Demir Kapija –

Smokvica

Section Petrovec –

Veles

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T5 – Fluvial flooding

due to heavy showers

(overland flow after

precipitation,

groundwater level

increase)

• Introduction of the state-of-the-art technical and

engineering standards for project design that

would replace the existing one, which in some

case are completely obsolete

• Improvement of the torrential/river

management, primarily by increasing awareness

and understanding of the differences between

torrent and river, which often appear to be the

main reason for inappropriate measure or

maintenance

Section Skopje –

Petrovec

Section Negotino -

Gevgelija

T9 – Erosion or slides of

infrastructure and

embankment due to

long periods of rain in

catchment

• Installation of various protective walls in

concordance with the specific need of particular

section of the route

Section Petrovec –

Veles

Section Negotino -

Gevgelija

T15 – Shorter

maintenance windows,

decreased lifetime,

increased maintenance

costs due to increased

variability in warm/cool

days (roads and

railways)

• Adaptation of the working hours to best fit with

the natural condition. Ex. Though Macedonia is

under the regime of summer daylight saving

time, the working hours are never adjusted

appropriately

• Transfer of knowledge and experience from

countries that are in the warmer climate zones

to learn how to deal with the consequences of

high temperatures and heat waves. Accordingly,

from colder climate zones to learn how to deal

with the consequences of frost heave,

snowfall/blizzards, etc.

All sections

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Appendix I

SURVEY RESPONDENTS* AND WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AT CLIMACOR II SURVEY RESPONDENTS* AND WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AT CLIMACOR II SURVEY RESPONDENTS* AND WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AT CLIMACOR II SURVEY RESPONDENTS* AND WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AT CLIMACOR II

Workshop Date: 10 October 2016; Venue: Skopje Marriott Hotel, Plostad Makedonija 7, Skopje

# Name and Surname Position and Institution Mobile Phone E-mail Workshop

status

1. Jozhe Jovanovski* Director for Environment Protection and Social Aspects, Public

Enterprise for State Roads

+38978445947 [email protected] Apologized

2. Dr. Ivan Blinkov* Professor of Land and Water, Ss. Cyril and Methodius

University

+38970205782 [email protected] Present

3. Dr. Goran Mijoski* Assistant Professor of __________________, Ss. Cyril and

Methodius University

+38978377737 [email protected] Apologized

4. Svetlanka Popovska* Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications [email protected] Not present

5. Marjan Kopevski* Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications [email protected] Not present

6. Teodora Obradovic-

Grncaroska*

State Advisor on Climate Change, Ministry on Environment and

Physical Planning

+38976446911 [email protected] Apologized

7. Nebi Rexepi* Head of Physical Planning Department, Ministry of

Environment and Physical Planning

[email protected] Not present

8. Maja Markovska* Milieukontakt Makedonija +38976319501 [email protected] Not present

9. Stole Georgiev* Executive Director, CELOR - Centre for Local Development +38978462262 [email protected] Present

10. Kiril Ristovski* Executive Director, Florozon Skopje +38978430251 [email protected] Apologized

11. Iskra Stojanova* Consultant [email protected] Not present

12. Jerome Simpson

Senior Expert (Smart Cities and Mobility),

Regional Environmental Center

+36203988326 [email protected] Present

13. Natalia Ciobanu REC CLIMACOR II, Regional Environmental Center +37378285828 [email protected] Present

14. Maja Handjiska-

Trendafilova

Senior Expert on Inclusive Growth, Regional Cooperation

Council

[email protected] Present

15. Darko Spiroski Head of EU Department, Ministry of Transport and

Telecommunications

[email protected] Present

16. Metodija Dimovski* Independent Climate Change Consultant & Workshop Host +38970226070 [email protected] Present

17. Elena Mihajlova Freelance Interpreter +38971216907 [email protected] Present

18. Vera Mirceska-

Jovanovska

Freelance Interpreter +38976455394 [email protected] Present