Studying  the  Impact    of  Washington  State  Initiatives:    I-­‐1183  (alcohol  privatization)  and    I-­‐502  (marijuana  legalization)  

Work  session  for  Joint  House  Commi1ees  on  Early  Learning  and  Public  Safety,  Washington  State  Legislature      Linda  Becker  PhD        Julia  Dilley  PhD  MES  PrevenCon  Research  Manager    Senior  Research  ScienCst  Division  of  Behavioral  Health  &  Recovery  Program  Design  &  EvaluaCon  Services  Department  of  Social  &  Health  Services    Multnomah  County/OR  Health  Authority      February  19,  2014    

Acknowledgements  Many  thanks  to  mul.ple  partners  who  support  this  ongoing  study  

2  

•  I-­‐1183  Study  Advisory  Team  •  Rusty  Fallis,  Washington  State  Office  of  the  

ACorney  General  –  advisory  chair  •  Rick  Garza  and  Mary  Segawa,  WA  Liquor  

Control  Board  •  Michael  Langer,  WA  DSHS  Dept  Behavioral  

Health  &  Recovery  •  Steve  Schmidt,  Natn’l  Alcohol  Beverage  

Control  AssociaTon  •  Katrina  Hedberg,  PhD,  Oregon  Health  

Authority  •  Judy  Cushing,  Oregon  Partnership  •  Leslie  Walker  MD,  SeaCle  Children’s  Hospital  •  Jim  Cooper,  Olympia  City  Council  Member  •  Commander  Steve  Nelson,  Olympia  Police  

Department  •  Denise  Fitch,  EducaTon  advocate  •  Jean  O’Connor  DrPH  JD,  Emory  University  

•  Myra  Parker,  PhD  JD,  University  of  Washington  •  Bill  Kerr  PhD  and    Tom  Greenfield  PhD,    Public  

Health  InsTtute  Alcohol  Research  Group  •  Sondra  Storm,  Multnomah  County  Health  

Department  Strategic  PrevenTon  Framework  Coordinator  

•  AddiTonal  Study  Staff  Team  Members  and  Partners  •  Myde  Boles  PhD,  Susan  Richardson  MPH,  Julie  

Maher  PhD  –  PDES  Oregon  •  Erica  AusTn  PhD,  Bruce  Pinkleton  PhD,  Stacey  

Hust  PhD  –  Washington  State  University  •  Nancy  Sutherland,  University  of  Washington  

Alcohol  and  Drug  Abuse  InsTtute  (ADAI)  •  Atar  Baer  PhD  ,  Jeff  Duchin  MD  and  Nadine  

Chan  PhD,  Public  Health  SeaCle  &  King  County  

•  This  study  is  funded  by  Public  Health  Law  Research,  a  naTonal  program  of  the  Robert  Wood  Johnson  FoundaTon  

Background  •  I-­‐1183:  “privaTzed”  alcohol  distribuTon  (Nov  2011)  •  IniTaTve  promises  •  More  revenue  for  state  •  More  access/choice  for  consumers  •  Tight  restricTons  to  protect  youth    

•  I-­‐502:  legalized  recreaTonal  marijuana  market  (Nov  2012)  •  IniTaTve  promises  •  More  revenue  for  state  •  Tight  restricTons  to  protect  youth    

•  Applying  rigorous  research  methods  to  understand  the  impacts    •  Informs  conTnued  policymaking  in  Washington  •  MulTple  other  states  currently  debaTng  similar  changes  (including  Oregon)  

3  

 June  2012  and  aeer…  

Alcohol  Privatization:  1  Year  Later  May  2012  and  before…  

4  

Alcohol  Distribution  System  More  places  and  .mes  to  buy  liquor  •  Pre-­‐1183  State  system  •  328  stores,  with  73  maximum  hours  per  week  

•  Post-­‐1183  Private  system  •  1,415  stores,  with  140  maximum  hours  per  week      •  269  former  state/contract  stores  sTll  have  acTve  licenses  (18%  no  

longer  licensed)    Similar  resources  for  enforcement  at  LCB    •  Similar  compliance  check  violaTon  rate  •  90%  +  compliance  for  spirits  purchase  aCempts  

5  

Youth  Attitudes  &  Beliefs  Data  source:  established  statewide  Healthy  Youth  Survey    Significant  increases  in  pro-­‐alcohol  aGtudes  among  youth  •  Fewer  8th  graders,  and  10th/12th  grade  girls,  personally  believe  alcohol  use  is  “very  wrong”    

•  Fewer  8th,  10th,  and  12th  graders  (both  genders)  believe  their  parents  think  alcohol  use  is  “very  wrong”  for  them  

•  Fewer  8th,  10th  and  12th  graders  (both  genders)  believe  their  peers  think  alcohol  use  is  “very  wrong”    

 Significant  increases  in  older  youths’  perceived  access  to  alcohol  •  More  12th  grade  youth  think  it’s  “easy  to  get”  alcohol  

6  

Youth  Behaviors  •  No  change  in  overall  youth  drinking  at  5  months  aKer  priva.za.on    •  Downward  trends  conTnued,  similar  to  the  naTon,  for  past-­‐month  and  binge  drinking  

•  Increases  in  frequency  of  drinking  for  older  boys  •  Significant  increase  in  number  of  drinking  days  (among  those  who  drink)  for  12th  grade  boys;  marginal  significance  for  10th  grade  boys  

   

7  

Emergency  Department  Visits  •  Data  source:  King  County  (all  residents)  and  Medicaid  (minors)  to  examine  trends  in  Emergency  Department  (ED)  visits  pre-­‐  and  post-­‐law  (June  12)  

•  Significant  increases  in  ED  visits  for  alcohol-­‐related  condi.ons  post-­‐priva.za.on  •  Minors  (teens  and  young  adults  <21)  •  Men  and  women  ages  40+  

•  In  King  County,  an  esTmated  excess  5,500  ED  visits  in  the  16  months  following  privaTzaTon   8  

Alcohol  Thefts  •  Media  Story  Analysis  •  Themes:  dramaTc  increase  from  low  thee  rate  pre-­‐1183;  “it’s  easy  to  steal”;  organized  thees  for  resale;  some  danger  for  store  staff;  teens  stealing  for  distribuTon  

•  Nearly  $250,000  in  specific  thees  reported  through  September  2013  (most  news  stories  did  not  report  amounts)  

•  Police  Reports  •  DramaTc  increases  in  alcohol  thees  reported  by  mulTple  depts  (e.g.  from  5  in  7.5  years  to  83  in  10  months),  many  by  juveniles  

•  Stakeholder  Survey  •  Themes:  Stealing  is  common,  easy,  and  profitable;  stores  aren’t  doing  much  about  it.    

•  SenTnel  High  School  Survey  (n=1,000)  •  One  in  ten  high  school  youth  who  drink  reported  stealing  alcohol  from  a  store  in  the  past  year;  youth  who  stole  were  more  likely  to  be  boys  and  binge-­‐drinkers  

9  

Continued  Study  •  Sharing  preliminary  study  findings  to  inform  policy  discussions  

•  Cross-­‐state  partnership  to  study  alcohol  privaTzaTon  impacts  through  mid-­‐2015  •  Revenue    •  HospitalizaTon  •  Crime  •  Traffic    

      10  

Marijuana  Legalization:  2014  

?  

11  

Poised  to  Monitor  Impact  • ConTnuing  mulT-­‐state  partnerships  •  Building  on  alcohol  study  efforts  

• Planning  for  new  young  adult  survey  

• Providing  data  to  inform  WSIPP’s  benefit-­‐cost  analysis  

12  

Youth  &  Marijuana  •  Marijuana  use  trends  steady  in  recent  years  •  More  kids  now  use  marijuana  than  smoke  cigareCes  

•  More  than  100,000  Washington  State  youth  are  currently  using  marijuana  •  9%  of  8th  graders  •  19%  of  10th  graders  •  27%  of  12th  graders  

•  Significant  declines  recently  in  youth  perceiving  risk  from  trying  marijuana  

•  AnTcipaTng  increased  availability  with  opening  of  a  retail  market   13  

Thank  you!    Please  contact  for  ques.ons  or  more  informa.on  

 Julia  Dilley        Linda  Becker    julia.dilley@state.or.us    beckelg@dshs.wa.gov    (971)  673-­‐0589      (360)  725-­‐3705        

 

14