Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of...

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sectoron the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector

Meeting of national correspondents and experts, GMeeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001eneva, 6-7 December 2001

European Forest Sector Outlook Studies(EFSOS)



History of ECE-FAO outlook study activities:

50s: roundwood supply 70s: optimism in future economic growth80s: consequences from pollution to forest stands

1996: “European Timber Trends and Prospects: into the 21st century”, where an emphasis was put on the analysis of policy scenarios.



Increasing importance of social and environmental demands

• Emphasis on environmental

advantages of forestry and the use of wood products

• New name “European Forest Sector Outlook Studies” (EFSOS)



Visions:

• Building a bridge between East and West in ECE

• Promoting social and environmental benefits from forestry land use and use of wood and forest products

• Focussing on external policies and developing the relationship between the forest sector and society

• Contributing to international policy dialogs in the region and on the global level



Policy framework(such as subsidies and taxes,

prohibitions and permissions by law, etc.)

Demands of society

Exogenous factors(such as climate change etc.)

Market framework(demand and supply)

Forest Sector

Wood processing industry

Forest resources

market products and services (wood, non-wood products

etc.)

non-market services (cleaning water, storing of carbon,

recreation etc.)

"Internal" policies

"External" policies



EFSOS in the structure of ECE-FAO integrated programme of work

MARKETS AND STATISTICS

FOREST RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

POLICY AND CROSS-SECTORAL ISSUES

EUROPEAN FOREST SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDIES

TECHNOLOGY, MANAGEMENT AND TRAINING



EFSOS goals

• Analyse the future possible developments of the forest and forest industry sector in Europe + CIS.

• Consider challenges and uncertainties of varying policies, market developments and the influence of exogenous factors.

• Assist policy and investment decision making. • Target groups: policy makers, entrepreneurs

and the academic community of the forest and forest products sector and the public as well.



Regional scopeEurope = ECE – North America = EU-EFTA + CIS +CEEC, other European

Study SubjectForests (Forest area, growing stock,

increment)Production, Trade, consumption of

forest products (see timber database)

Other parameters as resources allow (labour, employment)



First step :The baseline study

(I) Historical analysis of driving forces, (II) Base line scenario on forest

resources, (III) Base line scenario on forest products

markets, (IV) Alternative policy scenarios.

(Outlines, as agreed in the EFSOS meeting, March 2001, are published on the EFSOS

webpage)



The elements of the baseline study are at different stages of development, depending on the available resources:

(I) “Historical analysis of the forest sector”

•Analysis of statistics (FRA and Timber database)•Literature search •Analysis of driving forces behind major changes



(I) “Historical analysis of the forest sector”

I b – Forest products• ???

I a – Forest resources • Adjustment of FRA terms and

definitions over time (SBH)



020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

1000

m3

Pulpwood (round & split) Other industrial roundwood

Sawlogs and veneer logs

Industrial roundwood production in Europe



(II) “Outlook on forest resources”

• Publication of methodology report• EFISCEN model

(www.efi.fi/projects/forsce/) is used to analyse the consequences for the forest of a particular level of roundwood demand.

• Update of EFISCEN input dataset, using the TBFRA 2000 terminology and definitions



(III) “Outlook on forest products markets”

• Publication of methodology report• ETTS V methodology (econometric

analysis)• Updating the input data, including

macro-economic scenarios • Improving the methods as resources

allow • Data collection is in progress and

should be finished by end of this year



(IV) “Policy Scenario Analysis”

• Meta-study of scenarios with major impacts on the forest Sector

• Contribution to the international dialogues (MCPFE, UNFF)



Meta-study of scenarios with major impacts on the forest Sector

• Identify important scenario areas (internal and external policies as well as “exogenous factors” )

• Evaluate impacts on main the forest sector parameters (forest area, production, trade etc.)



Meta-study of scenarios with major impacts on the forest Sector

• Inquiry as a base for evaluation of scenarios

• Base line scenario vs alternative scenarios

• Report March 2002



Scenario assumptions (growth/decline) in comparison to base line scenario (EU/EFTA region)

0.41

0.370.48

1.1

0.25

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20401) ETTS V

Rem

ovla

s, m

illio

n m

3

0.6

0.4

0.2

baseline scenario 1)annual growth rate, %

-0.2

-0.4



Analysis of inquiry resultsIdentification of scenarios "areas" with major impact on the European forest sector (all parameters)

Region probability impact rankP I P * I

Europe 31 Strengthening policies to develop market framework in countries with economies in transition (CITs)

70.2 1.3 91.3

22 Intensified innovations and changes in competitiveness of wood products

49.8 0.9 43.9

42 Changes in agricultural, rural and regional development policies

73.6 0.6 43.0

11 More emphasis on nature conservation and promotion of biological diversity of forests ecosystems

76.1 0.6 42.8

EU/EFTA 42 Changes in agricultural, rural and regional development policies

73.6 1.0 72.5

41 Incentives for social/environmental benefits from forestry and wood products use

67.7 0.8 51.2

22 Intensified innovations and changes in competitiveness of wood products

49.8 1.0 50.3

31 Strengthening policies to develop market framework in countries with economies in transition (CITs)

70.2 0.6 43.8

CEEC/other Europe 12 More emphasis on nature oriented forest management

79.3 1.7 138.1

31 Strengthening policies to develop market framework in countries with economies in transition (CITs)

70.2 1.2 85.0

21 Impact of globalisation on the competitiveness of the European forest and forest industry sector

73.9 1.0 75.4


76.1 0.9 71.0

CIS 31 Strengthening policies to develop market framework in countries with economies in transition (CITs)

70.2 3.5 247.2

43 Social and demographic developments 56.7 1.6 92.3

51 Promotion of renewable energy sources 75.2 1.2 89.0


76.1 1.0 75.6

EstimationsScenarios



UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEEFifty-ninth session

Geneva, 2-5 October 2001

Major industrial roundwood trade flows, in the UNECE region, 1996-1999

165

130

195

195

69

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 1997 1998 1999

Ind

ex (

1996

=10

0)

CIS to EU/EFTAEU/EFTA to EU/EFTAOther Europe to EU/EFTACIS to non-UNECENorth America to non- UNECE

around 90 million m3

around 110 million m3

(12 %)(9.3 %)

(8.5 %)(10.4 %)

(8.1 %)



U N E C E T I M B E R C O M M I T TE EF ifty-n in th sess ion

G en eva, 2 -5 O cto ber 2001

R e m o v a ls , C o n s u m p t io n a n d N e t t r a d e in R u s s ia , m il l io n m 3

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0around 300 million m3



Deadlines for the base line study:

• Draft report spring 2002• Review by an EFSOS meeting of

national correspondents and experts mid 2002

• Improving the report for a review by the Timber Committee September 2002



Possible “headline” themes for complementary studies • Consequences for the forest sector of

developments in CEEC and CIS• EU enlargement• Promotion of environmental and social

from forestry and from the use of wood products in competition with other sectors in the global market

• Promoting the use of renewable energy resources

• Certification of forest products and sustainable development of the forest sector

• Agriculture Policy and Forestry Land Use



Case studies (special policy topics and studies for particular regions or countries)

• “Outlook Study on the Forest Sector

of the Russian Federation” • Meeting with main stakeholders in

Moscow 14 December 2001 • final draft in Russian and English is

expected for beginning 2002



EFSOS web site in English, French and Russian http://www.unece.org/trade/timber/efsos)

• to receive responses on EFSOS activities from the public

• to establish a platform for a specific outlook study information exchange

• to use the site in the framework of fund raising activities



Enlargement of resources

• requests to the ECE member countries, NGO-s, associations of the private industry for support

• A few governments provided financial and-or manpower resources

• participation by a large number of experts in EFSOS activities, notably the participation in the meetings

• nomination of national correspondents from 20 countries

• internships and JPO-s (Junior Professional Officers)



CYPRUS Mr. Savvas TheophanousCZECH REPUBLIC Mr. Vladimir HenzlikDENMARK Mr. Karsten GasseholmFINLAND Dr. Heikki PajuojaGERMANY Prof. Dr. Heiner Ollmann

Retired !HUNGARY Mr. Zsolt KovacsIRELAND Mr. Mark TwomeyLATVIA Ms. Sandra EglajaLUXEMBOURG Mr. Marc WagnerNORWAY Prof. Birger SolbergPOLAND Mr. Wladyslaw Strykowski

Mr. Roman MichalakPORTUGAL Mr. Antonio LeiteROMANIA Mrs. Constanta IstratescuRUSSIAN FEDERATION Mr. V. V. Korobov

Mr. Anatoly P. PetrovSPAIN Ms. Ana Belen NoriegaSWEDEN Mr. Erik SollanderSWITZERLAND Mr. Thomas GrünenfelderUNITED KINGDOM Mr. Alastair JohnsonUSA Ms. Irene DurbakYOGOSLAVIA Mr. Milan Medarevic

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