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Study Finds Climate Change Will ReshapeGlobal Economy (pageselementsviewaspxid=2901393)

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url=httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementselementaspxid=2901393) (httpswwwlinkedincomshareArticlemini=trueampurl=httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementselementaspxid=2901393amptitle=Study Finds Climate Change Will Reshape Global Economyampsummary=ltpgtByKathleen Maclayltbr gtltbr gt UC Berkeleyltpgtltbr gtltbr gtltpgtUnmitigated climate change is likelyto reduce the income of an average person on Earth by roughly 23 percent in 2100 according to

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By Kathleen Maclay

UC Berkeley

Unmitigated climate change is likely to reduce the income of an average person on Earth by roughly 23percent in 2100 according to estimates contained in research published in the journal Nature that is coshyauthored by two University of California Berkeley professors

The findings indicate climate change will widen global inequality perhaps dramatically becausewarming is good for cold countries which tend to be richer and more harmful for hot countries whichtend to be poorer In the researchersrsquo benchmark estimate climate change will reduce average incomein the poorest 40 percent of countries by 75 percent in 2100 while the richest 20 percent mayexperience slight gains

Click on the map to get researchersrsquo estimates of how climate change will affect GDP per capita indifferent countries and regions by the year 2100 Burke Hsiang amp Miguel (Nature 2015)

The Nature paper focuses on effects of climate change via temperature and does not include impactsvia other consequences of climate change such as hurricanes or sea level rise Detailed results andfigures for each country are available for download online

UC Berkeleyrsquos Solomon Hsiang Chancellorrsquos Associate Professor of Public Policy was a coshyleader ofthe study with Marshall Burke a 2014 PhD graduate from Berkeley and an assistant professor in earthsystem science at Stanford University Berkeleyrsquos Edward Miguel Oxfam Professor of Environmentaland Resource Economics coshyauthored the results

The triorsquos work comes on the heels of their 2013 analysis that linked increased human conflict frommurder to civil wars to rising temperatures It also shortly precedes worldwide climate negotiationsstarting Nov 30 in Paris where policymakers will try to balance what they understand about the costsand benefits of agreements that might stem climate change

Brave new world

ldquoThese results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the globalclimaterdquo the analysis reports The team applied the results to standard scenarios of the 21st century tounderstand how the global economy might be affected by climate change

They find climate change is likely to have global costs generally 25shy100 times larger than predicted bycurrent leading models The teamrsquos best estimate is that climate change will reduce global economicproduction by 23 percent in 2100

ldquoHistorically people have considered a 20 percent decline in global Gross Domestic Product to be ablack swan a lowshyprobability catastropherdquo Hsiang warned ldquoWersquore finding itrsquos more like the middleshyofshytheshyroad forecastrdquo

Half of the simulation projections suggest larger losses The hottest countries in the world are hardesthit in less optimistic scenarios the authors estimate that 43 percent of countries are likely to be poorerin 2100 than today due to climate change despite incorporating standard projections of technologicalprogress and other advances

ldquoDifferences in the projected impact of warming are mainly a function of countriesrsquo baselinetemperatures since warming raises productivity in cool countriesrdquo the researchers write in Nature ldquoInparticular Europe could benefit from increased average temperaturesrdquo

Big insights from big data

To untangle the effect of temperature from other factors Burke Hsiang and Miguel drew on World Bankdata for 166 countries between 1960 and 2010 linking it to climatological data not usually analyzed inmacroeconomic studies They then applied econometric analysis in order to separate signal from noiseand to remove effects of confounding variables and trends ldquoThe results are remarkably robust and canbe shown with other data sets as wellrdquo Burke said

Perceiving small and persistent changes in economic growth is extremely difficult and is essentiallyimpossible without reams of data But the authors stress little changes over long periods aretremendously significant

ldquoIntroducing climate change to the global economy is like encountering a headwind when flying acrossthe countryrdquo said Hsiang ldquoYou might never feel it but it can slow you down dramaticallyrdquo

Their sober forecast derives from a key empirical finding Just like other animals and plants humansexhibit optimal productivity in a specific band of temperatures Analyzing 50 years of data from aroundthe world the team demonstrates that there is an optimal temperature of approximately 13 degreesCelsius or 55 Fahrenheit for economic performance Above or below this temperature economies growmore slowly

In a 2010 analysis Hsiang originally argued that country output should exactly reflect changes in workerproductivity so if workers slowed down at 25 degrees Celsius (77F) national output should tooHowever this time the authors note that each country is comprised of many different locations eachwith a different temperature so when the country starts warming the hottest locations surpass 25degrees Celsius first Economic activity at these hottest locations begins to decline before the wholecountry gets hot and starts its slump

ldquoWe tested this theoretical prediction against data and were amazed it was rightrdquo Burke said ldquoTheoptimal economic temperature for countries turns out to be 13 degrees Celsius or 55 degreesFahrenheitrdquo

Economic lsquodeath by a thousand cutsrsquo

The economic costs of climate change represent a major factor to consider in the design of globalclimate agreements and domestic regulations

ldquoThe climate situation is like deciding on how much to spend to maintain the family farmrdquo said HsiangrdquoWersquore pointing out that we can see the productivity of our fields and paddocks declining and have todecide whether wersquoll invest in maintaining the high levels of productivity wersquove enjoyed for so long If wedonrsquot protect what wersquove got what we pass on to our kids will be worth much lessrdquo

In addition to the wellshyestablished deleterious effects of heat on agriculture rising temperatures also willhurt the servicesshyoriented economies of rich countries

ldquoEverybody knows that when theyrsquore hot itrsquos really challenging to focus work and be productiverdquo saidMiguel ldquoWhen a few hundred million people are feeling that way itrsquos the exact same thing times a fewhundred million The whole economy is likely to slow downrdquo

Also taking heatshyrelated economic tolls are the energy costs of air conditioning worn infrastructurepeople making cognitive errors and causing accidents health problems such as heart attacks in richcountries and malaria and dengue in poor countries and the conflict and aggression channeldocumented in the authorsrsquo previous research

Potential influence

The work by Burke Hsiang and Miguel ndash who have been working for years to understand and quantifythe worldwide impacts of climate change ndash concludes that the world should expect to see economiclosses much higher than predicted by current leading models of how the global economy will respond toclimate change

Both rich and poor countries show the same effect which is as true today as in the 1960s in agriculturalas well as nonshyagricultural components of their economies Because the authors find that the globaleconomyrsquos sensitivity to temperature has not changed appreciably in more than 50 years in rich as wellas poor countries they advise that adaptation to hot temperatures appears much harder than many hadpreviously thought

Burke and Miguel penned a 2009 PNAS study linking temperature to civil wars in Africa Hsiangfollowed with a 2011 Nature study showing the global climate drove global conflicts The three thenteamed up on a 2013 Science study showing the link between climate and violence is virtually universalaround the world and throughout history

The teamrsquos widely cited 2013 analysis in Science on the influence of climate on conflict has helped toshape how the International Panel on Climate Control and the US government view this issue

Hsiangrsquos work focuses on how policy can manage climate change while promoting sustainable globaleconomic development His previous work has elucidated the hidden costs of natural disasters Hsiangcoshyauthored a recent opshyed cautioning about global impacts of an approaching El Nino and coshyauthoreda 2015 book Economic Risks of Climate Change An American Prospectus

Miguel studies economic development especially in Africa and the economic causes andconsequences of violence His critically acclaimed book on these topics Economic GangstersCorruption Violence and the Poverty of Nations has been translated into 10 languages Miguel hasmore recently pioneered efforts to promote open research practices in the social sciences through theBerkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences

Burkersquos 2014 doctoral dissertation at Berkeley examined the effect of climate on US agriculture healthin Africa and social conflict

READ MORE (httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementsviewaspxid=2901393)

To untangle the effect of temperature from other factors Burke Hsiang and Miguel drew on World Bankdata for 166 countries between 1960 and 2010 linking it to climatological data not usually analyzed inmacroeconomic studies They then applied econometric analysis in order to separate signal from noiseand to remove effects of confounding variables and trends ldquoThe results are remarkably robust and canbe shown with other data sets as wellrdquo Burke said

Perceiving small and persistent changes in economic growth is extremely difficult and is essentiallyimpossible without reams of data But the authors stress little changes over long periods aretremendously significant

ldquoIntroducing climate change to the global economy is like encountering a headwind when flying acrossthe countryrdquo said Hsiang ldquoYou might never feel it but it can slow you down dramaticallyrdquo

Their sober forecast derives from a key empirical finding Just like other animals and plants humansexhibit optimal productivity in a specific band of temperatures Analyzing 50 years of data from aroundthe world the team demonstrates that there is an optimal temperature of approximately 13 degreesCelsius or 55 Fahrenheit for economic performance Above or below this temperature economies growmore slowly

In a 2010 analysis Hsiang originally argued that country output should exactly reflect changes in workerproductivity so if workers slowed down at 25 degrees Celsius (77F) national output should tooHowever this time the authors note that each country is comprised of many different locations eachwith a different temperature so when the country starts warming the hottest locations surpass 25degrees Celsius first Economic activity at these hottest locations begins to decline before the wholecountry gets hot and starts its slump

ldquoWe tested this theoretical prediction against data and were amazed it was rightrdquo Burke said ldquoTheoptimal economic temperature for countries turns out to be 13 degrees Celsius or 55 degreesFahrenheitrdquo

Economic lsquodeath by a thousand cutsrsquo

The economic costs of climate change represent a major factor to consider in the design of globalclimate agreements and domestic regulations

ldquoThe climate situation is like deciding on how much to spend to maintain the family farmrdquo said HsiangrdquoWersquore pointing out that we can see the productivity of our fields and paddocks declining and have todecide whether wersquoll invest in maintaining the high levels of productivity wersquove enjoyed for so long If wedonrsquot protect what wersquove got what we pass on to our kids will be worth much lessrdquo

In addition to the wellshyestablished deleterious effects of heat on agriculture rising temperatures also willhurt the servicesshyoriented economies of rich countries

ldquoEverybody knows that when theyrsquore hot itrsquos really challenging to focus work and be productiverdquo saidMiguel ldquoWhen a few hundred million people are feeling that way itrsquos the exact same thing times a fewhundred million The whole economy is likely to slow downrdquo

Also taking heatshyrelated economic tolls are the energy costs of air conditioning worn infrastructurepeople making cognitive errors and causing accidents health problems such as heart attacks in richcountries and malaria and dengue in poor countries and the conflict and aggression channeldocumented in the authorsrsquo previous research

Potential influence

The work by Burke Hsiang and Miguel ndash who have been working for years to understand and quantifythe worldwide impacts of climate change ndash concludes that the world should expect to see economiclosses much higher than predicted by current leading models of how the global economy will respond toclimate change

Both rich and poor countries show the same effect which is as true today as in the 1960s in agriculturalas well as nonshyagricultural components of their economies Because the authors find that the globaleconomyrsquos sensitivity to temperature has not changed appreciably in more than 50 years in rich as wellas poor countries they advise that adaptation to hot temperatures appears much harder than many hadpreviously thought

Burke and Miguel penned a 2009 PNAS study linking temperature to civil wars in Africa Hsiangfollowed with a 2011 Nature study showing the global climate drove global conflicts The three thenteamed up on a 2013 Science study showing the link between climate and violence is virtually universalaround the world and throughout history

The teamrsquos widely cited 2013 analysis in Science on the influence of climate on conflict has helped toshape how the International Panel on Climate Control and the US government view this issue

Hsiangrsquos work focuses on how policy can manage climate change while promoting sustainable globaleconomic development His previous work has elucidated the hidden costs of natural disasters Hsiangcoshyauthored a recent opshyed cautioning about global impacts of an approaching El Nino and coshyauthoreda 2015 book Economic Risks of Climate Change An American Prospectus

Miguel studies economic development especially in Africa and the economic causes andconsequences of violence His critically acclaimed book on these topics Economic GangstersCorruption Violence and the Poverty of Nations has been translated into 10 languages Miguel hasmore recently pioneered efforts to promote open research practices in the social sciences through theBerkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences

Burkersquos 2014 doctoral dissertation at Berkeley examined the effect of climate on US agriculture healthin Africa and social conflict

READ MORE (httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementsviewaspxid=2901393)

Economic lsquodeath by a thousand cutsrsquo

The economic costs of climate change represent a major factor to consider in the design of globalclimate agreements and domestic regulations

ldquoThe climate situation is like deciding on how much to spend to maintain the family farmrdquo said HsiangrdquoWersquore pointing out that we can see the productivity of our fields and paddocks declining and have todecide whether wersquoll invest in maintaining the high levels of productivity wersquove enjoyed for so long If wedonrsquot protect what wersquove got what we pass on to our kids will be worth much lessrdquo

In addition to the wellshyestablished deleterious effects of heat on agriculture rising temperatures also willhurt the servicesshyoriented economies of rich countries

ldquoEverybody knows that when theyrsquore hot itrsquos really challenging to focus work and be productiverdquo saidMiguel ldquoWhen a few hundred million people are feeling that way itrsquos the exact same thing times a fewhundred million The whole economy is likely to slow downrdquo

Also taking heatshyrelated economic tolls are the energy costs of air conditioning worn infrastructurepeople making cognitive errors and causing accidents health problems such as heart attacks in richcountries and malaria and dengue in poor countries and the conflict and aggression channeldocumented in the authorsrsquo previous research

Potential influence

The work by Burke Hsiang and Miguel ndash who have been working for years to understand and quantifythe worldwide impacts of climate change ndash concludes that the world should expect to see economiclosses much higher than predicted by current leading models of how the global economy will respond toclimate change

Both rich and poor countries show the same effect which is as true today as in the 1960s in agriculturalas well as nonshyagricultural components of their economies Because the authors find that the globaleconomyrsquos sensitivity to temperature has not changed appreciably in more than 50 years in rich as wellas poor countries they advise that adaptation to hot temperatures appears much harder than many hadpreviously thought

Burke and Miguel penned a 2009 PNAS study linking temperature to civil wars in Africa Hsiangfollowed with a 2011 Nature study showing the global climate drove global conflicts The three thenteamed up on a 2013 Science study showing the link between climate and violence is virtually universalaround the world and throughout history

The teamrsquos widely cited 2013 analysis in Science on the influence of climate on conflict has helped toshape how the International Panel on Climate Control and the US government view this issue

Hsiangrsquos work focuses on how policy can manage climate change while promoting sustainable globaleconomic development His previous work has elucidated the hidden costs of natural disasters Hsiangcoshyauthored a recent opshyed cautioning about global impacts of an approaching El Nino and coshyauthoreda 2015 book Economic Risks of Climate Change An American Prospectus

Miguel studies economic development especially in Africa and the economic causes andconsequences of violence His critically acclaimed book on these topics Economic GangstersCorruption Violence and the Poverty of Nations has been translated into 10 languages Miguel hasmore recently pioneered efforts to promote open research practices in the social sciences through theBerkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences

Burkersquos 2014 doctoral dissertation at Berkeley examined the effect of climate on US agriculture healthin Africa and social conflict

READ MORE (httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementsviewaspxid=2901393)

Both rich and poor countries show the same effect which is as true today as in the 1960s in agriculturalas well as nonshyagricultural components of their economies Because the authors find that the globaleconomyrsquos sensitivity to temperature has not changed appreciably in more than 50 years in rich as wellas poor countries they advise that adaptation to hot temperatures appears much harder than many hadpreviously thought

Burke and Miguel penned a 2009 PNAS study linking temperature to civil wars in Africa Hsiangfollowed with a 2011 Nature study showing the global climate drove global conflicts The three thenteamed up on a 2013 Science study showing the link between climate and violence is virtually universalaround the world and throughout history

The teamrsquos widely cited 2013 analysis in Science on the influence of climate on conflict has helped toshape how the International Panel on Climate Control and the US government view this issue

Hsiangrsquos work focuses on how policy can manage climate change while promoting sustainable globaleconomic development His previous work has elucidated the hidden costs of natural disasters Hsiangcoshyauthored a recent opshyed cautioning about global impacts of an approaching El Nino and coshyauthoreda 2015 book Economic Risks of Climate Change An American Prospectus

Miguel studies economic development especially in Africa and the economic causes andconsequences of violence His critically acclaimed book on these topics Economic GangstersCorruption Violence and the Poverty of Nations has been translated into 10 languages Miguel hasmore recently pioneered efforts to promote open research practices in the social sciences through theBerkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences

Burkersquos 2014 doctoral dissertation at Berkeley examined the effect of climate on US agriculture healthin Africa and social conflict

READ MORE (httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementsviewaspxid=2901393)

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Impregilo has signed the contract for a US$575m (pound373m) hydroelectric project in Georgia) (httpswwwlinkedincomshareArticlemini=trueampurl=httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementselementaspxid=2663392amptitle=Salini Impregilo signs deal for Georgia hydro schemeampsummary=Salini Impregilo has signed the contract fora US$575m (pound373m) hydroelectric project in GeorgiaSalini Impregilo has signed the contract for a US$575m (pound373m)hydroelectric project in Georgiaampsource=Construction Indez)

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text=Check20out20this20siteampurl=httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementselementaspxid=2167368)

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estimate that 1330 billion to 1580 billion tons of organic carbon are stored within the permanently )

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text=Check20out20this20siteampurl=httpwwwenvironmentgurucompageselementselementaspxid=1961422)

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