Project Brief and Progress

Strengthening Flood Forecasting and Warning Centres Early Warning Capacity

under CDMP-II, MoDM&R

FFWC

BWDB

Objective:

• Increase deterministic flood forecast lead time from 3-days upto 5 days

• Develop capacity to forecast flash flood in the north east region of Bangladesh

• Extend flood forecast with respect to important infrastructures & targeted BWDB projects

• Develop & disseminate more user friendly forecasts through improved web-site

• Development of Local Area Network

• Capacity development of FFWC

Planning

Design

Implementation Admin Accounts

& Finance

Hydrology

Surface

Water

Ground

Water

Data

Processing

Flood Forecasting &

Warning Centre

River

Morphology

Disaster Mitigation Approaches; Water Sector

Structural

Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation projects

Coastal embankment

Dredging/de-siltation to increase conveyance

Riverbank Protection

Accelerated Land Reclamation

Salinity protection

Surface water retention (including rain water)

Non-structural

Flood and drought forecasting and Warning

Erosion Prediction (planned)

Hydrological data collection and survey

Capacity development All

the

se

are

co

vere

d in

the

BW

DB

Act-

20

00

Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre (FFWC)

FF

WC

Sta

rte

d1

97

2

Two consecutive big flood 1987 & 1988 –

Model based Flood Forecast initiated

6 Stations Bahadurabad, Serajganj, Aricha,

Goalondo, Bhagyakul and Hardinge Bridge

Based on correlation

Started1972 Started1972

1992-MIKE11-FF Model introduced

16-Flood Forecasting points – 24 hrs

1995-2000 MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 30-FF points - 48 hrs

2004-07 MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 38-FF points – 72 hrs

Up

to 1

99

0

CDMP-II (2011-14)

MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 38-FF points – 120 hrs

on Jamuna

on Padma

Day-1 24 hrs

Forecast Observe

present

Water Level

future

Day-2 48 hrs

Day-3 72 hrs

3 days deterministic forecast (existing condition)

Day-1 24 hrs

Forecast Observe

present

Water Level

future

Day-2 48 hrs

Day-3 72 hrs

3 days deterministic forecast (existing condition)

UNDP funded research initiative under CDMP-II, after 3 years 3 days deterministic forecast likely to extend 5 days

Day-1 24 hrs present

future

Day-2 48 hrs

Day-3 72 hrs

Forecast Observe

Day-4

96 hrs

Day-5

120 hrs

Model Rivers & Boundary

Non-Tidal 1. Panchagar( Korotya)

2. Dinajpur (Punrobhaba)

3. Rohanpur (Mohanada)

4. Pankha (Ganges)

5. Badarganj( Jamuneshery)

6. Gaibandha (Ghagot)

7. Dalia (Teesta)

8. Kurigram (Dharla)

9. Nonkhawa ( Brahmaputra)

10. Nakuagaon (Bhugai)

11. Durgapur( Someswari)

12. Lorergarh (Jadukhata)

13. Sarighat (Sarigowain)

14. Faridpur (Kumar)

15. Amalshid ( Kushiyara

16. Manu Railway Bridge (Manu)

17. Comilla (Gumti)

Tidal

1. Monghla (Passure)

2. Ryanda(Baleshwer)

3. Patharghat( Biskhali)

4. Dosmina(Tetulia)

5. Daultkhan(Meghna)

73 WL stations, add data

5 times a day, 73x5=365

WL data

56 rainfall data,

once in daily basis

Boundary estimation

for next 3-days

Model run

3-days lead time flood forecast in 38 points

Generate 5-days lead time water

level forecast in all 38 forecast points

with development of boundary

condition for next 5-days CM

P-I

I G

OA

L

Pre

sent c

onditio

n

Flood Forecast

coverage

Coastal zone Flood Forecast

yet to start

Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna Basin Model

Water Level

Monitored by BWDB

•Tidal 215

•Non tidal 128

Total = 343

73 Water Level gauge

stations used for Flood

Forecasting Purpose.

Water Level monitoring

and data transmission

is entirely Manual

Water Level Gauge

Recorded 5 times

a day

3 hourly interval

only day time

Rainfall Gauge

Recorded once in 24 hours

06:00 to 09:00 hrs 08:30 to 10:30 hrs 10:30 to 11:00 hrs 11:00 to 12:00 hrs 11:30 to --------

Field Observation Water Level Rainfall

Other Sources BMD Satellite image Web-site Indian data

Model Run

FFWC Office

Flood Inundation

Map

Feed to computer

Analysis & Quality check

Flood Bulletin

Preparation

Dissemination Through Hard copy E-mail Fax Phone Web-site SMS Cell Broadcast Distributed to Policy makers Disaster managers (GO & NGO) Media Others

Rainfall Surface

Map

Result consistency

check

Data Collection Preparation Dissemination Output

Flood Forecasting & Warning Activities

Error check

Water Level

from 73

stations

73x5=365

Rainfall 56

stations, daily

basis

Hard Copy – Limited, policy makers and top officials

e-mail – over 600 address in different groups, Ministries,

BWDB, Disaster management agencies, NGO, Research

Organ, Development partners, District Offices, Media etc.

Fax – Limited, policy makers and top officials

Phone – Continuous response

Web-site – www.ffwc.gov.bd

SMS – Very limited

Lobby Display – In front lobby of the main building

IVR –Latest, started July-2011, call 10941 from mobile,

Bangla Voice Message

Dissemination

Evaluation 3 days deterministic forecast

2012 monsoon forecast

evaluation for 24 hours

(1-day lead time) 92%

correct

72 hrs (3 days) 79% correct

2012 monsoon forecast

evaluation for 48 hours

(2-day lead time) 85%

correct

Evaluation 3 days deterministic forecast

Coastal zone Flood

Forecast yet to start

Basin Model Calibration Plots Danger Level-Q [m^3/s]HB_SDT [-]Hardingebridge-Q-Rated [m^3/s]Simulated Discharge [m^3/s]

Jan2011

Feb2011

Mar2011

Apr2011

May2011

Jun2011

Jul2011

Aug2011

Sep2011

Oct2011

Nov2011

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Dis

char

ge (m

3/s)

Station:Hardinge Bridge, River:Ganges;

Danger Level-Q [m^3/s]Jamuna Bridge_SDT [-]Simulated Discharge [m^3/s]

Jan2011

Feb2011

Mar2011

Apr2011

May2011

Jun2011

Jul2011

Aug2011

Sep2011

Oct2011

Nov2011

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Dis

char

ge (m

3/s)

Station:Bahadurabad, River:Jamuna;

Ga

ng

es a

t

Ha

rdin

g B

ridg

e

Ja

mu

na

at

Ba

ha

du

rab

ad

Sample 5-day Discharge Forecast for Brahmaputra Basin Discharge (Observed) [m^3/s]Real time rated Discharge [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge [m^3/s]

August2012

September2012

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Dis

ch

arg

e (

m3/s

)

Station:Bahadurabad, River:Jamuna; Forecast Date:07/10/2012

5 d

ays le

ad

tim

e f

ore

ca

st

real time rated Discharge [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day1 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day2 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day3 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day4 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day5 [m^3/s]

August2012

September2012

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Dis

ch

arg

e (

m3

/s)

River:Jamuna, Station: Bahadurabad

5-day Discharge Forecast Performance at Bahadurabad of the Jamuna River Forecast R2

Day1 0.912

Day2 0.908

Day3 0.882

Day4 0.824

Day5 0.737

Pe

rform

ance

Excellent match

Excellent match

Sa

tisfa

cto

ry,

still c

ha

nce

of

imp

rove

me

nt

Need

improvement

M½v b`x

hgybv b`x

cÙv b`x

‡gNbv b`x

c~e©vfvm

Chilmari

Bahadurabadi

Serajgonj

Aricha

5-day Forecast Bulletin for the Jamuna River

Existing 3-days lead time

Will add 2 more days, total 5-days lead time under

ongoing CDMP-II project

Forecast Bulletin

1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day

Chilmari

Bahadurabadi

Serajgonj

5-day Forecast Hydrograph for the Jamuna River

5-days lead time

5-days lead time

Tra

il ba

sis

5-d

ays le

ad

time

fore

ca

st fo

r Bra

hm

ap

utra

Ba

sin

Chilmari on Brahmaputra

Bahadurabad on Jamuna

5-day Forecast Hydrograph for Brahmaputra Basin

5-days lead time

5-days lead time

Tra

il ba

sis

5-d

ays le

ad

time

fore

ca

st fo

r Bra

hm

ap

utra

Ba

sin

Kazipur on Jmuna

Sirajgonj on Jamuna

5-day Forecast Hydrograph for Brahmaputra Basin

5-days lead time

5-days lead time

Tra

il ba

sis

5-d

ays le

ad

time

fore

ca

st fo

r Bra

hm

ap

utra

Ba

sin

Porabari Jamuna

Aricha on Jamuna

Performance of Forecast upto 5 days on Brahmaputra Jamuna River

Experimental August September 2012

Good, Very Good and Excellent

Po

or

to G

oo

d

Ne

ed

imp

rove

me

nt

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012

Chilmari on

Brahmaputra

Observe WL

Bahadurabad on

Jamuna

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012

Serajgonj on

Jamuna

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012

Aricha on

Jamuna

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012

Amalshid measured [m]AMALSHID Forecast [m]

D:\N

E_F

FF

\M11\P

LC

\WL_U

PD

-NE

-FF

F.d

fs0

D:\N

E_F

FF

\M11\P

LC

\28-A

PR

-2012-0

0-0

0\F

ore

casts

\AM

ALS

HID

.dfs

0

00:002012-04-23

00:0004-25

00:0004-27

00:0004-29

00:0005-01

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

Wa

ter

Le

ve

l m

PW

D

Kushiyara River at Amalshid; Forecast Date 28-05-2012

Sylhet measured [m]SYLHET Forecast [m]

00:002012-04-23

00:0004-25

00:0004-27

00:0004-29

00:0005-01

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Wa

ter

leve

l m

PW

D

Surma River at Sylhet; Forecast Date 28-04-2012

Kanairghat measured [m]KANAIRGHAT Forecast [m]

00:002012-04-23

00:0004-25

00:0004-27

00:0004-29

00:0005-01

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Wa

ter

Le

ve

l m

PW

D

Surma River at Kanairghat; Forecast Date 28-05-2012

Flash Flood

Forecast trail

result For

Sunamgonj

(pilot area) Observe

Observe

Observe

Need further improvement

Forecast upto 5 days on

Brahmaputra-Jamuna River

(experimental) generated in last

monsoon (August & September 2012)

Flash flood forecast(guidance) in

Sunamgonj & Sylhet (experimental)

generated, is being disseminated

from mid April 2013

Web-site development and maintenance

Draft web developed, feedback invited, hope to

launch from this monsoon (June 2013)

Upgrading and extension of LAN & maintenance

Rehabilitation, restoration and extension of the LAN

has been completed with new instruments. Two

independent and separate internet line (in parallel)

established. From next monsoon, intranet will be

established.

Existing Web-Site

New Web-Site (Under development)

New Web-Site (Under development)

Upgrade & development of visual display & maintenance

Continuous basis flood warning dissemination system has

been installed, covering the common lobby of the WAPDA

Building at the main entrance at the ground floor. The

WAPDA Building covering the agencies of BWDB and the

BPDB. It also covering the Briefing Room of the FFWC.

Capacity Development

Training component started and one training has

been completed at the FFWC office during 23-27

September 2012. Total 14 official/professionals of

different disciplines participated from the BWDB.

Requirement for further

Addition of Forecast Point

Existing Forecast 38 Points

Additional Forecast 16

Points, total will be 54 points

Danger level fixation

Additional water level gauges

Bulletin preparation with

additional 16 points

Update web-page with

16-additional points

This could be done with least

cost as the on going activities for

lead time increase covered

many items, like data collection

from existing gauges, calibration

and testing of results etc.

Budget is there, no need to

change the scope of work, it is

under Research on Prediction

Model – the workplan item

Approval from the CDMP-II

Received. RFP Issued, hope to

start from this year monsoon

(End of May 2013) to be tested

in two monsoon 2013 & 2014

Sl.No River Name Station Name District Upazilla

01 Jamuna Sariakandi Bogra Sariakandi

02 Baulai Khaliajuri Netrokona Khaliajuri

03 Old Surma Derai Sunamganj Derai

04 Kalni Markuli Hobiganj Ajmiriganj

05 Kushiyara Sherpur Moulovibazar Sherpur

06 Jamuna Sarisabari Jamalpur Sarisabari

07 Jamuna Dewanganj Jamalbari Dewanjganj

08 Dhaleswari Munshiganj Munshiganj Munshiganj

09 Dharala Kurigram Kurigram Kurigram

10 Shitalakhya Lakhpur Narayanganj Rupganj

11 Meghna Narsingdi Narsingdi Narsingdi

12 Mohananda Chapai Newabganj Chapai N. Ganj Chapai N. Ganj

13 Ghagot Gaibandha Gaibandha Gaibandha

14 Atrai Chanhkair Natore Gurudaspur

15 Hurasagar Baghabari Sirajganj Shahazadpur

16 Padma Charbhadhrasion Faridpur Charbhadhrasion

Additional Forecast 16 Points

1972 – 6 stations few hours

1992 – 16 stations 24 hours

1996 – 30 stations few 48 hrs

2005 – 38 stations 72 hours

2012 to 2014 – 38 stations 120 hrs

– additional 16 stations,

(38+16) total 54stations 120 hrs

CDMP-II

www.ffwc.gov.bd ffwc05@yahoo.com

ffwcbwdb@gmail.com

Thank you very much