Strengthening existing information systems to provide improved analysis to support the design

of cash transfer programmes

John Seaman

Evidence for Development

Planning a large scale e.g. national, CT programme will require information to estimate the resources required to reach a stated objective:

• The number of poor/ eligible households and people. • The severity of poverty, however this is defined.• Variation in the rate and severity of poverty between

years e.g. with variation in crop production.

+ information to define appropriate, practical targeting criteria i.e. the relationship between household poverty, and household/ personal characteristics.

(+ market information)

The information needed to plan a large cash transfer (CT) programme will depend on the programme objective

Possible objectives include:

• the relief of destitution and/ or assisting specific groups e.g. the very poorest households, the elderly, the ill.

• poverty reduction e.g. to bring all households up to a defined standard of living.

• giving households sufficient money to allow them to invest and save, to increase their income and security in the long-term.

The difficulty in getting this information will vary with the objective:

CT targeted at the poorest 10% of the population, or specific easily identified groups e.g. the elderly could be planned on the basis of a reasonably reliable census.

More ambitious objectives will require much more information i.e.

• The number of poor/ eligible households and people; the severity of poverty; variation in the rate and severity of poverty between years + targeting information + market information

Information on poverty is not currently available in most poorer African countries. National Household budget/ income/ expenditure surveys are infrequently updated, usually not available and there are serious questions about data quality.

The household economy approach (HEA) is a possible source of information:

• HEA is cheap to use, has relatively low skill requirements and is defensibly accurate.

• Some national data sets already exist.

However:

HEA provides ‘averaged’ information on income and household characteristics and this is not sufficient to meet the requirements for planning CT.

HEA, Zambezi West Bank, ZambiaZambezi West bank: sources of food

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Poor Middle Better off

% F

ood

requ

irem

ent Fish

Wild food

Purchase/barter

Labour exchange

Relief

Crop production

Zambezi West Bank: Sources of cash income

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Poor Middle Better off

K/H

H/Y

ear

Grass and others

Brewing

Labour

Fish sales

Honey

Timber/poles

Brick Making

Crop sales

Ox-hire

Livestock sales

Data: Household economy profiles. FEWSNET/FEG

+ assets & contextual information e.g. on market use.

Sources of food (% requirement) by wealth group

Sources of cash income (ZK) by wealth group

Mpika

Solwezi

Sesheke

Kaoma

Serenje

KalaboMumbwa

Mkushi

Lukulu

Chama

Mufumbwe Kasempa

Chinsali

Kazungula

Mwinilunga

Kaputa

Lundazi

Senanga

Kalomo

Zambezi

Isoka

Mongu

Nyimba

Itezhi-tezhi

Kabompo

Samfya

Kapiri Mposhi

Mungwi

Kasama

Shang'ombo

Mansa

Chibombo

Mbala

Chongwe

Mporokoso

Mpulungu

Luwingu

Choma

Kafue

Petauke

Mpongwe

Mwense

Milenge

Lufwanyama

Kawambwa

Chilubi

Monze

Mambwe

Mazabuka

Katete

Namwala

Chavuma

Siavonga

Luangwa

Nakonde

Gwembe

Masaiti

Sinazongwe

Nchelenge

Chiengi

Chadiza

Kabwe

ChingolaKitwe

Ndola

Lusaka

Livingstone

Chililabombwe

200 0 200 400 KilometersS

N

EW

Zambia Livelihood Zone Map

Food Economy Zones (FEZ)

Central Maize-Cotton Zone

Chama-Lundazi Rice Zone

Chiawa-Zambezi Lowlands

Chongwe-Nyimba Plateau

Copperbelt Mining Zone

Eastern Province Cash Crop Zone

Gwembe Valley

Kaputa Rice Zone

Kazungula-Mwandi Plain

Lake Kariba Fishing Zone

Line of rail Commercial Zone

Luangwa-Mfuwe Valley

Luano Valley

Luapula Valley

Luapula-Northern W etlands

Mambwe-Petauke Valley

Mkushi Commercial Block

Muchinga Escarpment

Mufumbwe-Kasempa Zone

Mulobezi W oodlands

Northern Province Plateau

Northwest High Rainfall Zone

Sioma Plain

Tuta-Luapula Corridor

Zambezi East

Zambezi Floodplain

Zambezi W est Bank

District Boundaries

Data Sources;Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZVAC)

Map Design and Desktop Mapping byZVAC.

Production Date: July 2004

Good quality household income/ expenditure data can also be obtained on small samples of households...

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

Household: 1 = poorest

MK

/Ad

ult

eq

uiv

ale

nt/

ye

ar

Neither

Grandperson(s) headed

Orphan

SOLT

Salima, Malawi, one village, cash income/ adult equivalent after household food energy needs met.

With CT of MK10,000/ Grandparent headed household/Year

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

Household: 1 = poorest

MK

/Adu

lt E

quiv

alen

t/Yea

r

Neither

Grandperson(s) headed

Orphan

SOLT

A pilot was recently conducted tested in Zambia * to test a proposed method which would:

- retain the practical advantages of HEA i.e. low cost, ease of use on large geographical areas.

- while extending the range of information obtained to include that required for CT planning.

* Supported by RHVP/DfID & CARE

The proposed method (‘HEA+’)

• an additional ‘very poor’ wealth group is added to the HEA data set. This should allow an approximation of the shape of the complete wealth distribution.

• Assuming that individual households can be placed (by village informants) in their correct HEA wealth group:

additional information can be obtained from individual households within each wealth group by rapid interview e.g. on demography, assets, illness.

HEA

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Poor Middle Better off

MK

/Per

son/

Yea

r

60%

30%

10%

Poor Middle Better-off

Percent in wealth group

Inco

me/M

K P

erson

/year

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96

Percentage of households

Cas

h/ P

erso

n/Y

ear

A

B

C

D

The ‘very poorest’ wealth group

HEA +

Additional wealth groups allow an approximation of the complete income distribution

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100

Household: 1 = poorest

Inco

me HEA data

ModelHEA+ Model

The pilot study

Two parallel surveys were conducted in the same village.

1. Using HEA, with the addition of a ‘very poorest’ wealth group.

2. Information on individual household income was gathered from every household.

i.e. the study used two independent methods to estimate household income in the same reference period (February 2005 – March 2006)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97

Household:1 = poorest

Inco

me/

per

son

or

adu

lt e

qu

ival

ent

(Kca

ls/

year

) IHM scaled

Model

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent of households

Per

cent

of t

otal

inco

me

Model

IHM Scaled

What can HEA+ do?

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97

Household: 1 = poorest

Inc

om

e/ p

ers

on

/ ye

ar

HEA+ Model

SOLT

Area (+ census) gives cost of increasing income to SOLT or other threshold

HH characteristics within wealth group e.g. number of elderly etc

Modelled income change e.g. following crop failure, price change

Income from production/ food assistance

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37

Household: 1 = poorest

Kcals

/ ad

ult

eq

uiv

ale

nt/

year

Wild foods

Gifts

Employment

Livestock & livestock products

Crop production

Income from exchange

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

Household: 1 = poorest

Kcals

/ad

ult

eq

uiv

ale

nt/

year

Sale of wild foods

Cash gifts

Employment

Sale of livestock & livestockproducts

Sale of crops