Stratfor Net Assessments:Stratfor Net Assessments:The Soviet UnionThe Soviet Union

February 2, 2007February 2, 2007

RussiaRussia

Methodology:Methodology:The Importance of PlaceThe Importance of Place

The mindset of placeThe mindset of place– Place makes industry makes peoplePlace makes industry makes people– Easy transport = political unityEasy transport = political unity– Coasts + hinterland = contact + trade = Coasts + hinterland = contact + trade =

acceptance of changeacceptance of change

Korea vs. SingaporeKorea vs. Singapore

Methodology (example):Methodology (example):The Importance of PlaceThe Importance of Place

The Importance of PlaceThe Importance of Place

The result is The result is manic depressionmanic depression– SputnikSputnik– VietnamVietnam– Oil shocks, Oil shocks,

Japanphobia and Japanphobia and the 1980s the 1980s recessionsrecessions

– September 11, September 11, 20012001

The Geography of EuropeThe Geography of Europe

PeninsulasPeninsulas IslandsIslands MountainsMountains CoastlinesCoastlines RiversRivers Northern PlainNorthern Plain VeryVery small small

spacespace

The The Importance of Importance of

PlacePlaceDistinguished by ethnicity, Distinguished by ethnicity,

united by trade and united by trade and divided by wardivided by war

Who Russia IsWho Russia IsWhat Russia FacesWhat Russia Faces

GeographyGeographyHistoryHistoryCultureCultureSecuritySecurity

EconomicsEconomicsDemographyDemography

The Russian GeographyThe Russian Geography

No warm portsNo warm ports Useless riversUseless rivers Mostly barrenMostly barren

Vast distancesVast distances Negligible natural Negligible natural

barriersbarriers

A Very Brief History of A Very Brief History of RussiaRussia ~1100-1200: Clashes with First Reich~1100-1200: Clashes with First Reich

~1200-1480: Mongol Domination~1200-1480: Mongol Domination 1533-1584: Ivan the Terrible and religious 1533-1584: Ivan the Terrible and religious

“reformation”“reformation” 1598-1613: Time of Troubles (Poland helps)1598-1613: Time of Troubles (Poland helps) 1650-1680: Europe’s religious wars involve Russia1650-1680: Europe’s religious wars involve Russia 1682-1796: The Greats (Peter and Catherine)1682-1796: The Greats (Peter and Catherine) 1812: Napoleonic wars hit Russia1812: Napoleonic wars hit Russia 1904-1905: The Great Fleets1904-1905: The Great Fleets 1917: Peace! Land! Bread!1917: Peace! Land! Bread! 1930s: Stalin’s Terror1930s: Stalin’s Terror 1939-1945: The Great Patriotic War1939-1945: The Great Patriotic War 1962: Cuban Missile Crisis1962: Cuban Missile Crisis 1989-1994: Soviet Dissolution and Shock Therapy1989-1994: Soviet Dissolution and Shock Therapy 1998: Ruble Crisis1998: Ruble Crisis

Ultimately comes down to a Ultimately comes down to a cycle of three developmentscycle of three developments– Rejection of all things Rejection of all things

WesternWestern– Worship of all things WesternWorship of all things Western– OccupationOccupation

Security (or lack thereof)Security (or lack thereof) Indefensible SiberiaIndefensible Siberia The NATO hedgeThe NATO hedge The European PlainThe European Plain

Infrastructure Infrastructure limitationslimitations

The FSU’s Muslim beltThe FSU’s Muslim belt

Russian Society: Russian Society: A Culture With A Superiority A Culture With A Superiority

ComplexComplexBased on an Inferiority ComplexBased on an Inferiority Complex Geographic barriers to growth produce Geographic barriers to growth produce

insular mindsetinsular mindset Difficult topography encourages sense Difficult topography encourages sense

of prideof pride Endless vulnerability fosters culture of Endless vulnerability fosters culture of

paranoiaparanoia Shielding of Europe creates mentality Shielding of Europe creates mentality

of jealousy, resentment and of jealousy, resentment and entitlemententitlement

Military StatusMilitary Status

Technology nearly Technology nearly without peerwithout peer

Huge standing Huge standing armyarmy

Culture of sacrifice Culture of sacrifice and militarization and militarization

Military StatusMilitary Status Shadow of its former selfShadow of its former self Discredited by ChechnyaDiscredited by Chechnya Border facilities goneBorder facilities gone Warning system Warning system

compromisedcompromised Procurement phased outProcurement phased out

Keeping Up With the Keeping Up With the Neighbors: 1990Neighbors: 1990

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Keeping Up With the Keeping Up With the Neighbors: 2006Neighbors: 2006

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Russia TodayRussia Today

BordersBorders Infrastructure Infrastructure IndustryIndustry DistributionDistribution Energy addiction Energy addiction

CorruptionCorruption OligarchsOligarchs SilovikiSiloviki

DemographicsDemographics– Birth/Death ratesBirth/Death rates– EthnicityEthnicity– DistributionDistribution– EmigrationEmigration– Immigration Immigration – DrugsDrugs– Disease (TB/HIV)Disease (TB/HIV)

Security and Economy: Workforce and Security and Economy: Workforce and ArmyArmy Mass army the only reasonable defense strategyMass army the only reasonable defense strategy

In 2005 57 percent of draftees were rejected on In 2005 57 percent of draftees were rejected on health groundshealth grounds

Mass technical training ceased in 1990Mass technical training ceased in 1990 In 2010 post-CW births become draft ageIn 2010 post-CW births become draft age In 2020 youngest with technical training reach In 2020 youngest with technical training reach

average Russian lifespanaverage Russian lifespan

Born Post-CW Current draftees

Youngest cohort with technical

training

Average mortality (57)

Russia’s Russia’s NightmaresNightmares

Russia in a NutshellRussia in a Nutshell Culture: insular, paranoid, prideful and Culture: insular, paranoid, prideful and

believe that believe that youyou owe them something owe them something better Geography: how could you be dealt better Geography: how could you be dealt a worse hand?a worse hand?

History: the amazing thing is that the History: the amazing thing is that the Russians are still hereRussians are still here

Economics: massive – and probably Economics: massive – and probably insurmountable – barriers to developmentinsurmountable – barriers to development

Security: impossible, yet they yearn for itSecurity: impossible, yet they yearn for it

Russia’s PathRussia’s PathThen and NowThen and Now

StrategyStrategy

PoliticsPolitics

Recent History:Recent History:The Current “Western The Current “Western

Worship”Worship”The USSR cannot win vs. the WestThe USSR cannot win vs. the West

save a thermonuclear exchangesave a thermonuclear exchange– Geographically: encircled by sea powersGeographically: encircled by sea powers– Industrial: always playing catch upIndustrial: always playing catch up– Information: missed the information Information: missed the information

revolutionrevolution– Technological: entire intellectual capital Technological: entire intellectual capital

based upon central dictatsbased upon central dictats– Economic: central planning vs. capitalismEconomic: central planning vs. capitalism

Andropov’s SolutionAndropov’s Solution Trade away the one thing that the Trade away the one thing that the

USSR had in abundance: geopolitical USSR had in abundance: geopolitical influenceinfluence

Mid-1980s: extra-European assetsMid-1980s: extra-European assets 1989-1991: Central Europe1989-1991: Central Europe 1992-1997: Central Asia1992-1997: Central Asia 1998-1999: Balkans, Financial 1998-1999: Balkans, Financial

independenceindependence 2000-2005: Baltics, Ukraine2000-2005: Baltics, Ukraine

Stratfor’s Internal Stratfor’s Internal DisagreementDisagreement

Our official view: Our official view: RevitalizationRevitalization– Russia boasts Russia boasts

tremendous tremendous regenerative powersregenerative powers

– Resurgence is in Resurgence is in progressprogress

– The future is of a The future is of a reformed Soviet Union reformed Soviet Union and a renewed (if we and a renewed (if we are lucky) Cold Warare lucky) Cold War

Stratfor’s Internal Stratfor’s Internal DisagreementDisagreement

The dissident view: The dissident view: Final collapseFinal collapse– Russia’s current fall Russia’s current fall

predates the Cold predates the Cold War’s endWar’s end

– The traditional The traditional Russian strength – Russian strength – demography – is now demography – is now a weaknessa weakness

– Institutional failure Institutional failure has already begunhas already begun

When We’ll Know: Three When We’ll Know: Three YearsYears

Independent estimates of Russian HIV cases Independent estimates of Russian HIV cases breached 1 million in 2001 (2m in ’06?)breached 1 million in 2001 (2m in ’06?)

In 2008-2010 mass AIDS deaths will likely In 2008-2010 mass AIDS deaths will likely begin to the tune of 500,000 / year, almost begin to the tune of 500,000 / year, almost exclusively in the under-30 age cohortexclusively in the under-30 age cohort

Depopulation could then reach Depopulation could then reach 1.0m-1.5m/year, nearly half among those of 1.0m-1.5m/year, nearly half among those of childbearing agechildbearing age

If Russia has not begun to move once this If Russia has not begun to move once this disaster becomes entrenched, it is finished disaster becomes entrenched, it is finished

Stratfor’s Internal Stratfor’s Internal AgreementAgreement

DissolutionDissolution– Stick with AndropovStick with Andropov– Concede UkraineConcede Ukraine– Allow foreign Allow foreign

management of management of energyenergy

– DenuclearizeDenuclearize– Allow secession of Allow secession of

Siberian, Baltic and Siberian, Baltic and Muslim regions Muslim regions

– Prepare for civil Prepare for civil breakdownbreakdown

RetaliationRetaliation– Abandon AndropovAbandon Andropov– Use energy to Use energy to

neutralize Europeneutralize Europe– Use weapons sales Use weapons sales

to complicate US to complicate US hegemonyhegemony

– Use diplomacy to Use diplomacy to hobble US imagehobble US image

– Burn resources in Burn resources in attempt to build attempt to build multi-polar worldmulti-polar world

The intent is obvious, so it all becomes a The intent is obvious, so it all becomes a question of capability.question of capability.

The oligarchsThe oligarchs– People who robbed People who robbed

the state blind in the state blind in the 1990sthe 1990s

St. Pete’s brigada St. Pete’s brigada – people who think people who think

they’d do better in a they’d do better in a more “Western” Russiamore “Western” Russia

Where From Here?Where From Here?The Political EnvironmentThe Political Environment

SilovikiSiloviki– Former (and current) military Former (and current) military

and security service personnel and security service personnel who want to see Russia who want to see Russia reemerge as a major reemerge as a major geopolitical forcegeopolitical force

PutinPutin– Westernizer who Westernizer who

knows Russia can knows Russia can never again never again become a major become a major powerpower

Where From Here?Where From Here?The Political EnvironmentThe Political Environment

The New Pragmatists The New Pragmatists – Dmitry MedvedevDmitry Medvedev– Sergei IvanovSergei Ivanov

A nationalist in a A nationalist in a reformist’s clothes and reformist’s clothes and vice versavice versa

Which does not mean Which does not mean that they have a plan that they have a plan yetyet

The New ParadigmThe New Paradigm

Getting Ready for Something Getting Ready for Something NewNew

Reassert control of Russia’s economic Reassert control of Russia’s economic backbonebackbone

Ensure zero internal political interferenceEnsure zero internal political interference Revitalize the militaryRevitalize the military Use economic tools to insinuate Russia Use economic tools to insinuate Russia

abroad to achieve maximum future abroad to achieve maximum future leverageleverage

Reconsolidate control over the Near Reconsolidate control over the Near AbroadAbroad

So What Is this ‘Something So What Is this ‘Something New’?New’?

??

Q&AQ&A