Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with ... · Feeding 9-10 billion people in 2050...
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Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture © 2017 FiBL Adrian Muller 1,2 , Christian Schader 1 , Nadia El-Hage Scialabba 3 , Judith Brüggemann 1 , Anne Isensee 1 , Karl-Heinz Erb 4 , Pete Smith 5 , Peter Klocke 1,6 , Florian Leiber 1 , Matthias Stolze 1 , Urs Niggli 1 Results (Figure 2): • 100% conversion to organic agriculture needs more land than conventional agriculture but reduces many environmental impacts. • Organic agriculture thus cannot feed the world without huge increases in land use, if we assume unchanged consumption patterns, i.e. high consumption of animal products, high food wastage. To fully analyse food systems, we thus cannot focus on production only, we also have to address consumption. We thus modelled complementary strategies: a) reduced use of animal feed that competes with human food production (e.g. grains and forage maize from croplands); b) reduced food wastage: • Reducing food-competing feed by 100% and food wastage by 50% results in improvements along all environmental indicators even with a conversion to 100% organic management. • This clearly means severe cuts in production and consumption of animal products. • However, we can do without extremes: 60% organic agriculture, 25% food wastage reduction and 50% food-competing feed reduction deliver a sustainable food system (Figure 3). Figure 3: Relative change of environmental impacts with respect to the refer- ence scenario for increasing shares of organic production (and 50% food-com- peting feed (FCF) and 25% food wastage reduction). Dotted red horizontal line: reference scenario. Figure 2: Relative envi- ronmental impacts of a full conversion to organic agriculture (100% organic agriculture, yellow lines; for reference: 0% organic agriculture, blue lines). Dark grey line: reference scenario (0% organic); with (dotted) and without (solid) impacts of climate change on yields. Figure 1: Structure of the SOL-model Introduction Intensification of agriculture has greatly increased food availability over recent decades but it has also led to big adverse environmental impacts. Feeding 9-10 billion people in 2050 with increased per-capita consumption of animal products will further exacerbate this. We thus need alternatives to achieve sustainable food systems. Organic agriculture is often proposed as a promising approach to achiev- ing this, but its feasibility is also contested because of lower yields. Abstract We investigate the role organic agriculture may play in sustainable food systems by employing the detailed global mass- and nutrient-flow model SOLm. Large-scale conversion to organic farming can contribute to sustainable food systems, if combined with further measures, namely • reducing over-consumption of livestock products, • using less concentrate feed in livestock production and • avoiding food waste. This would result in reduced environmental impacts such as from nitrogen and pesticide use, and it would not lead to increased land use. What we did We contribute to this discussion by quantifying the role that organic agricul- ture could play in sustainable food systems. We built a global food systems model (SOLm, Figure 1), which comprehensively captures organic produc- tion systems. Inputs: • Land areas • Mineral fertilizer • N-fixation • N-deposition • Seeds • Plant protection • Water • Electricity, fuels • Buildings/infrastructure Outputs: • Meat, milk, eggs • Manure • Emissions from manure management: CH4, N and N2O (direct and indirect: NO3, NH3) • CH4-emissions from enteric fermentation • Emissions of the inputs used Outputs: • Yields • Residues • Emissions from fertilization: N and N2O (direct and indirect: NO3, NH3) • CH4-emissions from rice production • Emissions of the inputs used Inputs: • Grass/Pastures • Other forage • Concentrate feed • Electricity, fuels • Buildings/infrastructure • Residues, compost, etc. • Manure • Herd structure • Animal sourced feed Land use Animal production • Grass/Pastures • Other forage • Concentrate feed • By-products Food System level – utilization of the production • Food: calorie and protein availability • Feed • Processing • Wastage • Other Environmental impacts: • Land use • Deforestation • GHG emissions • N-Eutrophication • P-Eutrophication • Pesticides • Erosion • Water use • Energy use (CED) Imports/ Exports Food System Production 0% reduction in food-competing feed (FCF) 100% reduction in FCF Land use 50% food wastage reduction 0% food wastage reduction a) b) c) d) 1 Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL), Switzerland (corresponding author: A.M., adrian.mueller@fibl.org) 2 Institute of Environmental Decisions IED, ETHZ, Switzerland 3 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Italy 4 Institute of Social Ecology Vienna (SEC), Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt-Vienna-Graz, Austria 5 Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK 6 bovicare GmbH, Germany Forthcoming in Nature Communications
Transcript of Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with ... · Feeding 9-10 billion people in 2050...
Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture
© 2017 FiBL
Adrian Muller1,2, Christian Schader1, Nadia El-Hage Scialabba3, Judith Brüggemann1, Anne Isensee1, Karl-Heinz Erb4, Pete Smith5, Peter Klocke1,6, Florian Leiber1, Matthias Stolze1, Urs Niggli1
Results(Figure 2): • 100% conversion to organic agriculture needs more land than
conventional agriculture but reduces many environmental impacts. • Organic agriculture thus cannot feed the world without huge increases
in land use, if we assume unchanged consumption patterns, i.e. high consumption of animal products, high food wastage.
To fully analyse food systems, we thus cannot focus on production only, we also have to address consumption. We thus modelled complementary strategies: a) reduced use of animal feed that competes with human food production (e.g. grains and forage maize from croplands); b) reduced food wastage:
• Reducing food-competing feed by 100% and food wastage by 50% results in improvements along all environmental indicators even with a conversion to 100% organic management.
• This clearly means severe cuts in production and consumption of animal products.
• However, we can do without extremes: 60% organic agriculture, 25% food wastage reduction and 50% food-competing feed reduction deliver a sustainable food system (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Relative change of environmental impacts with respect to the refer-ence scenario for increasing shares of organic production (and 50% food-com-peting feed (FCF) and 25% food wastage reduction). Dotted red horizontal line: reference scenario.
Figure 2: Relative envi-ronmental impacts of a full conversion to organic agriculture (100% organic agriculture, yellow lines; for reference: 0% organic agriculture, blue lines). Dark grey line: reference scenario (0% organic); with (dotted) and without (solid) impacts of climate change on yields.
Figure 1: Structure of the SOL-model
IntroductionIntensification of agriculture has greatly increased food availability over recent decades but it has also led to big adverse environmental impacts. Feeding 9-10 billion people in 2050 with increased per-capita consumption of animal products will further exacerbate this. We thus need alternatives to achieve sustainable food systems.Organic agriculture is often proposed as a promising approach to achiev-ing this, but its feasibility is also contested because of lower yields.
AbstractWe investigate the role organic agriculture may play in sustainable food systems by employing the detailed global mass- and nutrient-flow model SOLm. Large-scale conversion to organic farming can contribute to sustainable food systems, if combined with further measures, namely
• reducing over-consumption of livestock products, • using less concentrate feed in livestock production and • avoiding food waste.
This would result in reduced environmental impacts such as from nitrogen and pesticide use, and it would not lead to increased land use.
What we didWe contribute to this discussion by quantifying the role that organic agricul-ture could play in sustainable food systems. We built a global food systems model (SOLm, Figure 1), which comprehensively captures organic produc-tion systems.
Inputs:• Land areas• Mineral fertilizer• N-fixation• N-deposition• Seeds• Plant protection• Water• Electricity, fuels• Buildings/infrastructure
Outputs:• Meat, milk,
eggs• Manure
• Emissions from manure management: CH4, N and N2O (direct and indirect: NO3, NH3)
• CH4-emissions from enteric fermentation• Emissions of the inputs used
Outputs:• Yields• Residues
• Emissions from fertilization: N and N2O (direct and indirect: NO3, NH3)
• CH4-emissions from rice production• Emissions of the inputs used
Inputs:• Grass/Pastures• Other forage• Concentrate feed• Electricity, fuels• Buildings/infrastructure
• Residues, compost, etc.
• Manure
• Herd structure• Animal
sourced feed
Land use
Animal production
• Grass/Pastures• Other forage• Concentrate feed• By-products
Food System level –utilization of theproduction
• Food: calorie and proteinavailability
• Feed• Processing• Wastage• Other
Environmental impacts:
• Land use• Deforestation• GHG emissions• N-Eutrophication• P-Eutrophication• Pesticides• Erosion• Water use• Energy use (CED)
Imports/Exports
Food
Sys
temProduction
0% reduction in food-competing feed (FCF) 100% reduction in FCF
Land use
50%
food
was
tage
redu
ctio
n0%
food
was
tage
redu
ctio
n
a) b)
c) d)
1Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL), Switzerland (corresponding author: A.M., [email protected]) 2Institute of Environmental Decisions IED, ETHZ, Switzerland3Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Italy4Institute of Social Ecology Vienna (SEC), Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt-Vienna-Graz, Austria5Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK6bovicare GmbH, Germany
Forthcoming in Nature Communications
