STRATEGIC THINKING Prof.Dr.Dr.Dr.H.C. Constantin Bratianu Faculty of Business Administration Academy...
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Transcript of STRATEGIC THINKING Prof.Dr.Dr.Dr.H.C. Constantin Bratianu Faculty of Business Administration Academy...
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STRATEGIC THINKING
Prof.Dr.Dr.Dr.H.C. Constantin BratianuFaculty of Business Administration
Academy of Economic Studies
Bucharest, Romania
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My business is thinking
T.A. Edison
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KNOWLEDGE PARADOX
• We are living in a world which is infinite in time, space and complexity
• We need to understand this world for survival, and for a better life
• However, our mind is finite from biological and psychological point of views
• How can we know and understand an infinite world with a finite mind ?
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THINKING MODEL
• We are using thinking models which are cognitive approximations of complex real phenomena
• Thinking models are developed throughout our education in family, school, church and society
• The more powerful these thinking models are, the better cognitive approximations we can get
• The more powerful these thinking models are, the better decisions we can make
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STRUCTURE
• Basic structure
knowledge
rules
values
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KNOWLEDGE
• Data, Information, Knowledge- information = processed data- knowledge = processed information
• Tacit knowledge- experience- talent- intuition
• Explicit knowledge- concepts- ideas- theories
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KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge Strudcture
Explicit Knowledge
Tacit Knowledge
Rational Mind
Non-Rational Mind
Knowledge Transfer Process
Direct Experience
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Cogito, ergo sum !
R. Descartes
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To release the spirit one must accentuate the work with meditations of the heart and the soul.
(M. Musaschi – The Book of five rings)
Kamakura
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RULES
• Behavior rules – in childhood
• Religious rules
• Grammar rules
• Mathematical rules
• Logical rules
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VALUES
• Values = Deeply held ideas of members about what is right or wrong, fair or unfair – anything that has personal worth or meaning
• We are living in a given culture, which is defined by a set of fundamental values
• We learn these values through education in family, school, church and society
• Values constitute the reference system of our decisions
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STATIC THINKING
• The simplest model of thinking
• TIME is not included in this model
• Things and events are almost the same. They do not change, or change is not significant
• Think of Pyramids. Same image anytime
• When things do not change we get a feeling of security
• Static thinking opposes any change. It is like a resistance
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DYNAMIC THINKING
• Time is a fundamental variable
• Things and events change in time. Processes develop in time
• For reversible processes time direction is not important
• For irreversible processes time has directionpast >>> present >>> future
• Entropy is a measure of irreversibility
• Entropic thinking is the most powerful thinking model from time point of view
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LINEAR THINKING
representation
Input (X)
Process constant (K)
Output (Y)
Y = kX
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LINEAR THINKING
• Outputs are proportional with inputs
• Processes are described by linear equations
• Linear thinking is the most frequently used approximation in our daily life
• Measuring systems are based on linear thinking
• Budgetary salaries are based on linear thinking
• Democracy is based on linear thinking
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NONLINEAR THINKING
• Life processes, natural processes, social processes are not linear
• Outputs are related to inputs by nonlinear equations, of different forms
• Scientific discoveries, Engineering innovations, Business negotiations
• Intellectual work, artistic performance and knowledge processing are strongly nonlinear processes
• Friendship, love, happiness, excellence, performance, quality etc. are strongly nonlinear
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LINEAR APPROXIMATION
• Graphical representation
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DETERMINISTIC THINKING
• Based on idea that things and events must be very well defined and determined
• They are given, fixed, settled. They are certain
• Mathematics, Physics have deterministic laws
• Legislation, regulations in organizations
• Time tables for trains, aeroplanes, students classes
• Certainty is a feeling we are looking for all the time
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RANDOM THINKING
• Life events, nature events, social events have all random/probabilistic occurencies
• They have different probabilities of being produced
• Outcomes are not strictly determined by known inputs
• There are always risks associated with uncertainties
• Understanding trends and challenges for different developments, and shaping the future is based on this kind of random thinking
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INTELLIGENT THINKING
• A complex model of thinking able to optimize and to offer the best solutions to any problem
• A model based on capacity of combining a lot of known data and knowledge, in a very short time
• All the data and knowledge needed are known. There are no new elements
• Intelligent thinking is strongly nonlinear and dynamic
• Intelligent thinking is able to process tacit knowledge
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CREATIVE THINKING
• A complex model of thinking able to generate always a new piece of knowledge
• Knowledge creation, conversion, transmission and use are based on this model of thinking
• Creative thinking is highly nonlinear and random
• Scientific discoveries and Engineering innovations are based on creative thinking
• In real life there is a strong connexion between intelligent thinking and creative thinking
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STRATEGIC THINKING
• Strategic thinking is the most advanced and the most powerful model for Science, Engineering and Business
• Strategic thinking is based mostly on the following:
- dynamic thinking
- nonlinear thinking
- random thinking
- intelligent thinking
- creative thinking
• Strategic thinking is the most adequate way of thinking for the future
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STRATEGIC THINKING
• Graphical representation
L NL
Complexity
D
R
S
D
Generation
Time
Simple thinking model
Strategic thinking model