Strategic Security Future for Indo-Asia-Pacific Region
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Transcript of Strategic Security Future for Indo-Asia-Pacific Region
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STRATEGIC SECURITY FUTUREFOR INDO-ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Australia; The European Tiger
Zorba Parer
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DEFININGTHE REGION
A China centric view of the region is forming aroundclear data indicating a growth in all elements ofChinese national power
Indo-Asia-Pacific as a hemispherical system
Indo-Asia-Pacific maritime region
The Indian Ocean maritime region
The Pacific Ocean maritime region
Mainland Asia
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SUB-REGIONS
Asia North, East, South, West
Indian Ocean SLOC to Africa, Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe,
Asia and littoral regions Pacific Ocean
SLOC to South America, North America, Siberia, Asia,and Pacific Littoral States
Oceania Passage between Indian and Pacific oceans.
SLOC to Australian east coast and New Zealand
This is a region dominated by maritime geography,and transport economics.
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EXCEPTIONALISM
Quadrella of exceptional States
USA; Global hegemonic power, balancing costs ofmaintaining the Global Commons, with ability toinfluence State to State relations.
China; Communist Billion Citizen State, seeking to risepacifically.
India; Most populous democracy, seeking to ensurecontinued Indian Ocean dominance, and influencewithin the Asia land mass.
Japan; forced demilitarisation, economic powerprojection, civil institutions with monopoly on use offorce within Japanese jurisdiction.
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ARTICLES REVIEWED
Cooperation from Strength The United States,
China and the South China Sea
January 2012, Edited by Patrick M. Cronin
Contributors, Patrick M Cronin, Peter A Dutton, M Taylor
Fravel, James R Holmes, Robert D Kaplan, Will Rogers,and Ian Storey
Power and Choice; Asian Security Futures
Rory Medcalf
International Relations of Asia (2008) Chapter 15 by Ralph A Cossa
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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSOF ASIA
No settled pattern of order in Asia. All the majorpowers are in processes of transition.
Rise of China as single most significant contributorto regional change in Asian power structures.
India rising, but not as quickly as China.
Need for domestic structural reforms anduncertainties about how best to assert a moreactive international and regional role are evident inJapan.
Russia trying to reassert its Asia presence.
Continued reliance on US military dominance.
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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSOF ASIA
Growing Chinese pre-eminence
Japan seeking to normalise as a nation
India looking east, seeking a more active role in Asia-Pacific
ASEAN; increasingly institutionalised, driving regionalcooperation
Near term security issues Korean Peninsula tensions
China-Taiwan tensions
Continued importance of existing USA-Bilateral securityarrangements
Geopolitical Considerations
Regional geographical considerations
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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSOF ASIA
Pathways to the Future; Two Scenarios
Continuation of current order, moderated by USAprimacy
Dependent on massive military commitments to the region
At risk of a declining USA economy Increased US involvement in regional multilateralism
Multipolar system, with sub-regional hegemensdominating the Indo-Asia-Pacific region
A weakening US
Chinese band wagoning by US allied states
Concert of powers possible (US, China, India, and Russia)
Coalitions attempting to form a balance of powers.
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Main thesis - Cooperative Primacy
Increased US Naval presence, contingent upon ahealthy US Economy.
A new web of US security partnerships
Peace and security assurance in the South China Sea
Increased US economic engagement in the Region
Increased focus on US-China relations, supporting rulesbased system of cooperation and dispute resolution
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
History as a record of Chinese geostrategiccentrality in Asia
150 Years of political upheaval after Millennia ofChinese rule
Chinese claims over South China Sea can beunderstood as a Greater Caribbean moment
Constructivism anyone?
Leading Asian arms modernisation
Hemispherical economic dependencies
Could China survive without Japan?
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Nations surrounding China, economically engagedand hedging USA as an offshore balancer
US Chinese conflict not a favourable option for riskaverse minor nations: Australia, NZ, Papua, Indonesia.
Produces bias against any China-US conflict. [Z} Australian Defence Budget as an indicator
Submarines as the ultimate maritime presence
Aerial surveillance and the age drones
Air lift and emergency response
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
China rebuffs attempts to move the South ChinaSea disputes from regional to global forums
Great power behaviour evident in Chinese movesto bilateral agreements, versus multilateral
engagement Does USA movement to multilateral engagement signal
a abdication of their Great Power status?
Limits of Realism in an Institutionalised powerstructure?
UNCLOS and other Customary International Lawstend to limit Great Power influence. Theoretical tangent: Is this an example of a self
destructive tendency in Great Power behaviour? Selfenforcing natural laws?
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER II - MARITIME SECURITYINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEAANDTHECOMPETITIONOVER MARITIME RIGHTS
Multiple state claimants over territory is a feature ofgeostrategic reality in the south China sea.
US maritime predominance necessary.
US Neutrality in Regional Dynamics Chinese Maritime realities
ASEAN and Littoral Regions
Conflict avoidance to balance policy for US foreign
diplomacy
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER III - TREATIES
History of Chinese sovereign claim.
Chinese claims not supported by UNCLOS
Maritime Resources
Important fishing grounds Crude oil
Natural Gas
Sea Lane Security
Chinese policy of reassurance, and bilateralagreements between claimants
Engagement through ASEAN in multilateralappeasement, reversed after unpromising start
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER III - TREATIES
China insists on bilateral approach
No substantive agreements have been reached viabilateral approaches
Other claimants prefer multilateral approach to
balance Chinese influence
Failure of the 2002 DoC; further talks
China will continue blocking moves for arbitrationand 3rd party intervention
China will continue asserting effective control overthe South China Sea in pursuit of its sovereign
claims
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER IV -CRACKSINTHE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAWANDINSTABILITYINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEA
China asserting interests in ways which threatenthe normative global maritime commons
China seeking to Shape CIL through Statebehaviour
Challenges to established positions of UNCLOS
Three pillars of Modern Globalisation
Open, Market based access to resources and trade
International Institutions fostering stability
Stability in the Global Commons
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER IV -CRACKSINTHE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAWANDINSTABILITYINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEA
Managing the Maritime commons
Right of access to the high seas
Enshrined in UN Charter
Constabulary role of Navies Multiple forms of State maritime jurisdiction
Chinese anti-access policy towards SCS
Regional Baselines
Boundaries at or near the shoreline between a coastalstates fully sovereign territory and the maritime zones
that extend seaward.
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER IV -CRACKSINTHE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAWANDINSTABILITYINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEA
China is seeking to change the rules and normsthat define maritime rights
US and allies should act against this change
US should ratify UNCLOS Great power multilateral dilemma?
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER V THE ROLEOF NATURAL RESOURCESINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEA
Natural Resources
Energy
Fisheries
Minerals
The Challenge of Climate Change
Dynamic interaction between Land and Maritimeresources
Promoting regional stability Alternative Fuels
Adaptive technologies
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERSFOR COALITION BUILDING
US Maritime Strategy
Good order at sea
Three Principles:
Preserving freedom of the Seas
Ensuring uninterrupted flow of shipping
Facilitating ready movement of goods and people accessacross US frontiers
Current Maritime cooperation in SCS
US assistance programs CARAT and SEACAT
Challenges to Maritime coalition building
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERSFOR COALITION BUILDING
500 years with a global maritime hegemon
Portugal Holland England USA
Multinational trusteeship (Multipolarity) would be anew phenomenon
Dual nature of Navies makes it difficult todistinguish between Competitive and CooperativeState behaviours
The China Factor
Chinese policy assertions of indisputable sovereigntyover SCS islands and waters
Failure of DOC
Reactions to CARAT
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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERSFOR COALITION BUILDING
Globalised economy relies of free flow of goods
Southeast Asian states have territorial claims atstake
Beijing view of vital interest against coalitions Washing should work bilaterally to uphold maritime
security
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POWERAND CHOICEFUTURES
Future 1: US Primacy
Future 2: An Asian Balance of Powers
Future 3: Concert of Powers
Future 4: Chinese Primacy Shocks
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ZORBAS THOUGHTS
Commitments made under ASEAN agree to pacificresolution of disputes.
Arbitration offices provided.
Disputes agreed through offsets in resolutions.
Costs of providing courts as a common good.
Dams as an example of transnational water disputes.
Domestic constructivism
Uncertainties arising from domestic politics
Model Theories.
Chinese Maritime presence
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/
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ZORBA THOUGHTS
Secondary Effects - Cooperative Primacy
Answer to increased traffic through Chinese waters, theenforcement agency grew.
This has led China to effect control of East and South
China Seas. Nuclear capabilities on Hainan Island lead to a South China
Sea predominance.
China continues to assert rights in these matters.
Arbitration as an answer? Not likely, international laws
currently favour the Chinese opposition. China has a negativebias in acceding to any international arbitration.
Assertions of Exceptionalism.
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VIETNAM - MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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VIETNAM - MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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TAIWAN - MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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TAIWAN 8HRS LATER
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EAST CHINA SEA- MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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KOREAN PENINSULA
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JAPAN MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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JAPAN MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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DUTCH MARITIME MOVEMENTS
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MAJOR STRATEGIC FACTORS
US military dominance
Chinese resource demands
Japanese economic power
Indian resource demands Multiple minor to medium sized nations
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MIDDLEAND SMALLSTATES
State Survival
Maintaining Sovereignty
Balancing Great Powers
Engagement through Multilateralism