Strategic Issues
description
Transcript of Strategic Issues
• Seamless Suite of Products
• Climate Weather Linkages
Strategic Issues
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
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NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
Fore
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastM
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Seasonal Predictions
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasonsYearsYears
NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System
Fore
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Lea
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model
Hurricane Models*
Global Forecast System
North American Mesoscale Model
Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS
-GFDL -WRF
NCEP Model Perspective
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Rec
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Eco
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cosy
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Env
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Mgm
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gmt
Agr
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Agr
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Hyd
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Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs*
* Potential ensemble candidates
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Satellites99.9%
Regional NAMWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation
ClimateCFS
1.7B Obs/Day
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA Model Production Suite
MOM3
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansRTOFS/HYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
ClimateForecastSystem
Regional Analysis
GSI
Global Ensemble
Forecast System(w/ Canada)
Dispersion
Air QualityWith ARL
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suitewith Code Origins
Severe Weather
Rapid Update for Aviation
Hurricane Forecasts
Global Analysis
GlobalForecasts
RegionalForecasts
Real-Time OceanForecast System
& Waves
Short-RangeEnsembleForecast
NW
HWRF
NCEP
EXTERNAL
SREF
WAV/NAM
40%60%
32%68%
77%
23%
82%
18%
40%60%
62%38%
91%
9%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
50% 50%
• Increasing emphasis on Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System
• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface
radiance data• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications
Forces for Change
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
• Computer upgrade at risk in next procurement cycle– Impacts new programmatic requirements (ISI/CFS upgrades;
HFIP; NextGen; Fire Wx; MME;…)
Issues
Ongoing Opportunities• OAR/GFDL/EMC MOM4 for climate applications and MME potential• OAR/GSFC/EMC accelerated ESMF applications• OAR/ESRL/EMC: FIM• JCSDA partnership (GMAO; EMC) leading to accelerated 4DVAR• WRF/DTC/HWTB/EMC ensemble and HFIP partnerships working to accelerate
short-range ensemble application• NOPP/Navy/EMC: Global HYCOM