Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

42
20/05/ 2021 Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

Transcript of Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

Page 1: Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

20/05/2021

Strategic

Growth drivers

2021-2025

Page 2: Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PRESS: DIGITAL GROWTH POTENTIAL AND EVENTS

MARKET TRENDS AND VOCENTO’S GROWTH STRATEGY

DIVERSIFIED BUSINESSES: CLASSIFIEDS, GASTRONOMY AND AGENCIES

MAIN FINANCIALS, CASH GENERATION AND VALUATION

ESG

2

Q&A

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

TABLE OF CONTENTS

MARKET TRENDS AND VOCENTO’S GROWTH STRATEGY

3

- MARKET TRENDS: ADVERTISING AND SUBSCRIPTIONS

- VOCENTO GOALS

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

TRENDS MARKET: ADVERTISING

Trust in publishers as a source of news1

Market

Variation in advertising investment 2019-2021E3

Note 1: source is Edelman Trust Barometer 2021. Note 2: trust in the news source after reading it once or twice. Others means a non automatic response after reading the newsNote 3: market source is i2p ex- social networks. 2021E Vocento is budget.

Data in % Data in variation %

4

(12.6%)

(8.7%)

(27.5%)

(20.9%)

Total Offline Press Online

(3.0%)

9,0%

Market

trends

Publishers Social networks

Doesn’t

trust 24%

Trust

39%

Others

37%

Trust2

57%

Doesn’t

trust 10%

Others

33%

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ADVERTISING MARKET: FORMATS AND DIGITAL POTENTIAL

5

Traditional

advertising: print

media or digital

“Brand day”

Advertiser does not

know user profile

Advertiser knows user

profile

Programmatic

advertising Specific digital

technologyNext step after lead

User joins simulatorUser finalises

acquisition

Indiscriminate

impact

Discriminated

impactLead generation Transactional

Advertising

Trends

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DIFFERENT MODELS OF DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTION

Subscription life cycle1 Main models in Europe

GROW

Attract

readers to

product

portfolio

CONVERT

Make users

loyal with

subscriptions

RETAIN

Anticipate

and respond

to reasons for

churn

ENGAGE

Understand

users, offer

them relevant

experiences

Note 1: source FTStrategies

Subscriber

Trends

6

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FINANCIAL TARGETS 2021-2025E

7Note: estimated targets on constant scope. Note 1: combined margin = margin on revenues from circulation and digital subscriptions.

GROW

Total revenues

2025 vs 2021

MAINTAIN

combined

margin1 at

level of 2019

GROW

EBITDA 2025 vs

2021

RECOVER

EBITDA 2019 in

2021

SUSTAIN

Ordinary cash

generation

Targets

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PRESS: DIGITAL GROWTH POTENTIAL AND EVENTS

8

- RESILIENCIA DE PRENSA DE VOCENTO

- REGIONAL PRESS AND ABC: DIGITAL STRATEGY

- SUPPLEMENTS AND MAGAZINES

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

PRESS BRANDS: HISTORIC RESILIENCE

Revenues from print press and digital 2015-21E1

Data in YoY variation

EBITDA and comparable EBITDA Press 2015-21E1

Data in €m

EBITDA Comparable EBITDAPrint Digital

45.0

40.2

35.638.3

35.7

17.5

49.047.0

44.4 43.2 42.1

27.4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E

9

Recent

Develop.

(3.2%)

(6.4%)(4.6%)

(6.2%) (6.3%)

(15.8%)

16.1%

6.3%3.9%

10.2%12.7%

0.8%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E

Note 1: ABC, Regional, Supplements & Magazines. Revenues include circulation, digital subscriptions, advertising ande-commerce.

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REGIONAL PRESS & ABC: DIGITAL GROWTH POTENTIAL

10

Digital press

strategy

Note 1: 2.2mn newspaper registrations by April 2021.

BASED ON QUALITY OF CONTENT, ENRICHED BY REGISTRATION1

DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTIONS

Since May 2021, all VOC papers have digital subscription models

PROGRAMMATIC LOCAL BRANDED CONTEXTUAL

2025E target: digital advertising >50% total ABC and Regional

DIGITAL ADVERTISING

LEADS

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DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: VOCENTO’S STRATEGY FOR CAPTURE

Flexible, omnichannel communications with subscribers

Potential of dynamic paywall: based on user types and ways of access, aiming to make person personalised offers

Creation of a registration wall: halfway between anonymous readers and subscribers

1

2

3

Digital

subscriber

strategy

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Paying subscribers (thousands)

DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: PERFORMANCE AND OBJETIVE

12Note: figures are rounded to the nearest 100 thousand euro.

Dec2016

40

Dec2017 Dec2018 Dec2019 Dec2020 Dec2021E

62

39

251917

8 10 1630

47

5

9 99

9

11

Total subscribers (thousands)

20 23 29 47 75Target

>100

Digital subscriptions performance

Digital

subscriptions

performance

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COMBINED MARGIN ON CIRCULATION/SUBSCRIPTIONS STABILIZES

Performance of VOCENTO combined margin 1Q15-1Q21

Data in €m

Target: 2021E and beyond at

level of 2019

1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21

Accumulated variation in

margin1Q15-1Q21

€-0.3m

Digital

subscriptions

performance

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REGIONAL PRESS + ABC: DRIVERS OF DIGITAL ADVERTISING

14

Strengthened by COVID and higher growth in

2021E

Increasing weight: 2021E 40%2 +4 pp vs

2020

PROGRAMMATIC

BRANDED CONTENT

New Project based on product, commercial

profiles and model (technology and

processes)

Contextual content and issues

LOCAL DIGITAL

CONTEXTUAL

Note 1: Gross advertising data. 2021E as budget. Note 2: weight in national advertising excluding Classifieds. 2021E growth as in Budget.

Data in %1

Digital advertising mix VOCENTO 2021E

Local

39%

Rest

49%

Branded

Content

13%

Programmatic

27%

Digital

advertising

strategy

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DIFFERENTIATED POSITIONING IN PROGRAMMATIC

15Note 1: source Benchmark Adomik. May – December 2020 vs May – December 2019.

Programmatic growth 2019-20201

Data in % variation

Variation of CPM for programmatic 2019-20201

Data in % variation

52.2%

31.5%

Open 44.6%

Direct 76.0%

Open 17.5%

Direct 63.9%

Market

5.7%

(13.6%)

Open 0.2%

Direct 7.3%

Open (22.5%)

Direct 3.6%

Market

Digital

advertising

strategy

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FORECASTS FOR PRESS MARKET AND VOCENTO

Forecast for print press market 2019-2024E1

Data in CAGR variation %

Forecasts for digital press 2019-2024E1

Market

Data in CAGR variation %

Note 1: market source PWC Entertainment and Media Outlook 2020-2024. Note 2: Regional and ABC. Gross advertising data.

16

Press

forecasts

Market

Local (5.5%)

National (8.6%)

Circulation Advertising

(7.0%)

(5.7%)

(10.1%)

(6.2%)

Subscription revenues Advertising

Local 9.1%

National 7.9%

7.1%

45.9%

5.2%8.3%

2 2

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SUPPLEMENTS & MAGS.: DIGITAL EVOLUTION AND PROJECTS WITH EVENTS

In 2020

#1 in print and digital readership1

in their categories

1 million visualisations

+50 speakers in-person

and streaming

EBITDA +33% > 2019 Business group promoting high-level tourism

In 2021

Increase in EBITDA 2021E vs 2020 & 2019

Event and vertical dedicated to sustainability

Note 1: market source EGM and comScore respectively. 17

Supplements

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SUPLEMENTS AND MAG.: REFOCUS OBJETIVE

Revenue mix advertising and events

Data in %

2020

Print Digital Events

Note 1: 2021E Vocento is budget. 18

59%30%

11%

2025E

34%

37%

29%

Weight 2021E1

print <50%

Supplements

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DIVERSIFIED BUSINESSES: CLASSIFIEDS, GASTRONOMY AND AGENCIES

19

- CLASSIFIEDS

- GASTRONOMY

- AGENCIES

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CLASSIFIEDS: BUSINESS DESCRIPTION

Advertising:

• Advertisers/Agencies

• Data/programmatic

Listing:

• Publication/positioning

• Free-freemium-Paid• Lead/CPL

• Sale/CPA

Tech

Sale of software solutions

B2C

B2B

C2B

Revenue typesBusiness type by customer

focusBusiness type by content

General

Verticals

Niche

20

Classifieds

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CLASSIFIEDS: TOWARDS A TRANSACTIONAL BUSINESS MODEL

Publish

Attract users

Generate leads

Sell advertising

Manage the entire

process of capturing

users and making sales

on the platform

1.0

Listing4.0

Transaction

3.0

Supporting

transactions

In addition to 2.0

Managing leads

Fintech solutions

Associated services

Contact centre

21

In addition to 1.0

2.0

Services

Web business

Marketing

management

CRM/ERP tools

Classifieds

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CLASSIFIEDS: VOCENTO PORTALS BUSINESS

22

Revenue mix by type of business

Data in %

Note 1: at Sumauto others is mainly appraisals, at pisos.com agreements

1.0 3.02.0

80%

8%

12%

84%

3% 14%

95%

2% 2%

89%

7%4%

2020 2025E

Variation of weights 2021-25

in increasing revenue

Classifieds

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

CLASSIFIEDS: STRATEGIC FOCUS ON B2B SUBSCRIPTIONS

23

Alliance with AS24 technology supplier

#2 in automotive, increasing client

market share

Business development

#3 in real estate, increasing client

market share

2019 2020 2021

Tacticaltargets

Strategic targets

Win share from #1, increase

prices

Grow scale,

increase

prices

Develop new

products focused on transaction

(3.0))

Workforce 2211

employeesRevenues €c30m2E

Main numbers in 2021

Note 1: March 2021. Note 2: 2021E Vocento budget.

Classifieds

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CLASSIFIEDS: MARKET EVOLUTION

24

Customer variation mar21 vs mar20

Data in %1

Nota 1: source is Autobiz.

(7%)

(5%)

(8%)

(4%)

4%

(8%)

2% 2%

Motor Real Estate

Classifieds

Market Market

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CONGRESSES

GASTRONOMY: LEADER IN THE SECTOR IN SPAIN

Note 1: 150 pages a week of gastronomical content. Note 2: March 2021. Note 3: 2021E Vocento budget.

EVENTS

30 vertical

and mass

events

25

Workforce of 312 employees. Revenues €c.10m3E

Main numbers 2021

Gastronomical

supplements

Gastro

TRAINING

Agreement

PUBLICATIONS1CONSULTING

strategic

gastronomical

consultancy

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GASTRONOMY: FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS

26

Development of new verticals in Spain and possible international expansion

Internationalisation of the event to other continents

Approval by ANECA

Start of first course

Revenues €2mE and breakeven

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenues €3.5mE

Revenues €2mE1

Gastro

Note 1: 2021E Vocento budget.

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AGENCIES: SOURCE OF DIVERSIFIED ADVERTISING REVENUES

27

Brand

strategy

Creativity and design

Digital strategy

Events

production

Media

planning

Media

distribution

Measurement of

results

Agencies

Value chain of a campaign

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AGENCIES: MAIN NUMBERS

28

Workforce of 1161 3 employees. Revenues €c15mE 1 4

Main numbers 2021

Note 1: also includes Melé and Factor Moka. Note 2: data for end of 2020. Note 3: April 2021. Note 4: 2021E Vocento Budget.

Breakdown of workforce of the agencies

Data in %1 2

4.3%

35.3%

16.4%

24.1%

7.8%

7.8%

4.3%

Management

Accounts department

Digital team and e-commerce

Creative team and strategy

Structure and administration

Others

Events

Agencies

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

AGENCIES: FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS

29

Brands demand increasing levels of creativity and strategy

Capture advertising outside traditional media

Diversified portfolio

Exposure to digital marketing

Agencies

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

MAIN FINANCIALS, CASH GENERATION AND VALUATION

30

- VOCENTO REVENUES COMPOSITION

- VOCENTO CASH GENERATION

- VOCENTO SUM OF THE PARTS VALUATION

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 31

CONSTANT INCREASE OF WEIGHT OF DIGITAL AND DIVERSIFICATION

VOCENTO revenue composition by business

Note 1: revenues 2015-2018 adjusted for IFRS15. Digital includes digital subscriptions, digital advertising, and Classifieds.

Data in % of total1

Financials

P&L

Digital (%) Diversification (%) Print (%) Audiovisual (%)

12% 13% 14% 16% 19% 21% 23%31%

5% 5%8%

12%

78% 76% 75% 74%69% 67% 62%

<50%

10% 11% 10% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2025E

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BUSINESS MIX IN 2020

Revenues from businesses in 2020

Business weights vs “sustainable” press peers

Note 1: Source is company information and in-house. Revenues from e-commerce and Classifieds included in digital revenues and not in other revenues. Distribution and printing revenues as print revenues and not other revenues except NYT where detail is not disclosed. Data rounded to nearest p.p..

Data in % of total1

Financials

P&L

5% Gastro,

Agencies

and

Supplements

events

44%58%

26%33% 33%

23%

18%

11%9%

16%

1%

31%34%

3%

20%

20%

13%

13%

28%

13%5%

19%11%

19%

VOC Reach DMGT NYT VOC 2025E

Circulation Print advertising Digital subscriptions Digital advertising Other revenues

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Vocento – NFD and Cash Generation

7.2 IFRS16

34.4

1.9 5.1

10.54.1

16.6

4.1

12.98.3

18.7

IFRS16 20.7

45.7

ex IFRS16

46.6

ex IFRS16

NFD 2019 Comp.EBITDA

WorkingCapital

Others Capex Tax Ordinary cashflow

FCF Indemn One off +NIIF16

NFD 2020

2020

43.0 49.6

2.7 1.410.8

5.3

32.1

7.2

24.9

10.1

24.6

45.7

ex IFRS16

NFD 2018 Comp.EBITDA

WorkingCapital

Others Capex TaxOrdinary

cashflow

Dividends,financials

FCF IndemOne off, div Voc,

NIIF16

NFD 2019

7.2 IFRS16

2019

EBITDA AND CASH GENERATION AT VOCENTO

Data in €m

Cash flow

Dividends,financials

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Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025

Vocento: Ordinary free cash flow generated from businesses

Vocento: NFD ex IFRS16(€m)

• Newspapers are cash generative

• Other businesses will increase contribution

• FCF financed

restructuring,

diversification and

dividend payment in

2019

• Low NFD, solid FCF

FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION AND NET FINANCIAL DEBT

Data in €m

Cash flow

125.9108.8

66.456.2

43.0 45.7 46.6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

39.9 32.1 16.630.5

38

Newspapers Audiovisual Classifieds Gastro, Agencies, others Corporate

30.6

7.52.0 0.3

(0.5)

12.8

5.62.6

(1.4)(2.9)

2018 2019 2020

20.1

7.80.7 0.3 1.6

2017

23.5

6.65.0

1.0

(3.9)

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SUM OF PARTS, SHARE PRICE, VALUATION

Aspects to be noted:

• Current market value of press implies no recovery from Covid contraction in 2020, vs internal plan and múltiples of international press

peers

• Low valuation of Classifieds vs listed peers and recent transactions in the sector in Spain

• Gastronomy and Agencies are not well understood or valued

• Multiple assigned to corporate (vs multiples for main businesses)

• Other assets to consider (real estate, tax credits)

Note 1 : Adjusted implied multiple EV/EBITDA19 SOP proportionately for difference between SOP Enterprise Value and current market cap. Note 2: G is growth rate to perpetuity ( EV= free cash flow/WACC (8.25%) – G)).

Data in €m

Valuation

SOP average

from analysts

vs 2019 vs 2020

Press 171 0.4x 0.4x 4.1x 3.7x (5.5%) 0.8% ≈ 0%

Audiovisual 72 2.2x 1.9x 6.9x 6.2x (0.8%) 0.6%

Classifieds 69 2.2x 2.0x 11.0x 9.9x 1.0% 4.5% ≈ 16%

Gastro & Agencies 17 0.7x 0.7x 5.7x 5.1x 2.6% n.a. ≈ 17%Corporate (80) 6.9x 6.2x 3.3% 4.5%

Enterprise value 251 0.6x 0.6x 5.0x 4.5x (4.6%) 1.6%

Minorities (53)

Others 20

Asset Value

NFD (Dec 2020) (57)

Equity value 160

Current market cap. 135

EV/19 Sales

implicit multiple

Implicit 19

multiple

adjusted for

current market

cap.1

EV/EBITDA

Comp 19 implicit

SOP multiple

Implicit FCF

growth to

perpetuity2

Implicit 19

multiple

adjusted for

market cap1

Forecast comp.

EBITDA

growth19-25

218

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METRICS AND MULTIPLES FOR CLASSIFIEDS

Revenue and EBITDA at VOCENTO Classifieds Listed Classifieds EMEA: EV/Sales vs EBITDA margin1

Listed Classifieds EMEA : EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA margin1

Note 1: Analyst consensus; source Bloomberg 13 May 2021.

Data in €m Vocento Classifieds SOP

Analysts (2.4x and 23%)

Vocento Classifieds SOP

Analysts (10.3x and 23%)

0

25

50

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenues EBITDA

Zillow

REA

Domain HoldingsRightmove

Scout24

Autotrader

Carsales.com

Cars.comCargurus

SchibstedAdevinta

0x

10x

20x

30x

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

EV

/Sa

les

21

E

EBITDA margin 21E

Zillow

REA

Domain HoldingsRightmoveScout24

Autotrader

Carsales.com

Cars.com

Cargurus

Schibsted Adevinta

0x

20x

40x

60x

80x

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

EV

/EB

ITD

A 2

1E

EBITDA margin 21E

Valuation

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METRICS AND MULTIPLES FOR GASTRONOMY

Revenues and EBITDA at VOCENTO Gastronomy Listed Gastronomy EMEA: EV/Sales vs EBITDA margin1

Listed Gastronomy EMEA: EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA margin1

Note 1: Analyst Consensus; source Bloomberg 13 May 2021.

Gastro Vocento SOP

Analysts (5.2x and 15%)

Data in €m Gastro Vocento SOP

Analysts (0.7x and15%)

0

5

10

15

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenues EBITDA

InformaAscential

GL Events SA

Fiera Milano

0x

2x

4x

6x

8x

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

EV

/Sa

les

21

E

EBITDA margin 21E

InformaAscential

GL Events SA

Fiera Milano

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

EBITDA margin 21EEV

/EB

ITD

A 2

1E

Valuation

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METRICS AND MULTIPLES FOR AGENCIES

Revenue and EBITDA at VOCENTO Agencies Listed Agencies EMEA: EV/Sales vs EBITDA margin 1

Listed Agencies EMEA: EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA margin1

Note 1: Analyst Consensus; source Bloomberg 13 May 2021..

Data in €m Vocento Agencies SOP

Analysts (0.7x and 14%)

Vocento Agencies SOP

Analysts (5.2x and 14%)

0

20

40

2019

(full year)

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenuess EBITDA

WPP

PublicisOmnicom

Interpublic

0.5x

0.9x

1.3x

1.7x

2.1x

12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%

EV

/Sa

les

21

E

EBITDA margin 21E

WPP

Publicis

Omnicom Interpublic

5.0x

8.0x

11.0x

12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%

EBITDA margin 21EEV

/EB

ITD

A 2

1E

Valuation

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ESG

39

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PROGRESS OF ESG POLICIES

40

EQUALITY

ENVIRONMENT

CORPORATE

GOVERNANCE

Crreation and Approval of

Policy for Equality and Non-

Discrimination

48% of permanente hires are

women

Of the 1,297 employees who received

training, 51.7% were women

Creation of Equality Committee

Approval of Environmental PolicyISO 14001 certification obtained at

Rotomadrid (70% of print plants

comply)

Increasing the number of women on the

Board to 27.3% in 2020 (+7.3% vs. 2019)Process for finding independent directors:

75%

of independents are women

Highlights Key variables

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Women in

workforce(%)

2018 2019 2020

44% 44% 45%

41

BLOOMBERG ESG METRICS FOR VOCENTO

Transparency coefficient

Base 100 Total ESG Social EnvironmentCorporate

Governance

These numbers measure, according to Bloomberg, the level of

transparency based on the number of issues on which the company

provides verifiable data

Key ESG metrics

45.548.8

54.1

63.2

71.975.4

36.4 36.4

45.048.2

53.6 53.6

2018

2019

2020

2018 2019 2020Greenhouse

gas

Emissions (Tns)

11.0 12.2 10.5IndependentDirectors. (%)

2018 2019 2020

30% 30% 36%Work accidents(number)

2018 2019 2020

97.0 82.0 45.0

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