Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
Transcript of Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
20/05/2021
Strategic
Growth drivers
2021-2025
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PRESS: DIGITAL GROWTH POTENTIAL AND EVENTS
MARKET TRENDS AND VOCENTO’S GROWTH STRATEGY
DIVERSIFIED BUSINESSES: CLASSIFIEDS, GASTRONOMY AND AGENCIES
MAIN FINANCIALS, CASH GENERATION AND VALUATION
ESG
2
Q&A
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET TRENDS AND VOCENTO’S GROWTH STRATEGY
3
- MARKET TRENDS: ADVERTISING AND SUBSCRIPTIONS
- VOCENTO GOALS
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TRENDS MARKET: ADVERTISING
Trust in publishers as a source of news1
Market
Variation in advertising investment 2019-2021E3
Note 1: source is Edelman Trust Barometer 2021. Note 2: trust in the news source after reading it once or twice. Others means a non automatic response after reading the newsNote 3: market source is i2p ex- social networks. 2021E Vocento is budget.
Data in % Data in variation %
4
(12.6%)
(8.7%)
(27.5%)
(20.9%)
Total Offline Press Online
(3.0%)
9,0%
Market
trends
Publishers Social networks
Doesn’t
trust 24%
Trust
39%
Others
37%
Trust2
57%
Doesn’t
trust 10%
Others
33%
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
ADVERTISING MARKET: FORMATS AND DIGITAL POTENTIAL
5
Traditional
advertising: print
media or digital
“Brand day”
Advertiser does not
know user profile
Advertiser knows user
profile
Programmatic
advertising Specific digital
technologyNext step after lead
User joins simulatorUser finalises
acquisition
Indiscriminate
impact
Discriminated
impactLead generation Transactional
Advertising
Trends
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
DIFFERENT MODELS OF DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTION
Subscription life cycle1 Main models in Europe
GROW
Attract
readers to
product
portfolio
CONVERT
Make users
loyal with
subscriptions
RETAIN
Anticipate
and respond
to reasons for
churn
ENGAGE
Understand
users, offer
them relevant
experiences
Note 1: source FTStrategies
Subscriber
Trends
6
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
FINANCIAL TARGETS 2021-2025E
7Note: estimated targets on constant scope. Note 1: combined margin = margin on revenues from circulation and digital subscriptions.
GROW
Total revenues
2025 vs 2021
MAINTAIN
combined
margin1 at
level of 2019
GROW
EBITDA 2025 vs
2021
RECOVER
EBITDA 2019 in
2021
SUSTAIN
Ordinary cash
generation
Targets
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PRESS: DIGITAL GROWTH POTENTIAL AND EVENTS
8
- RESILIENCIA DE PRENSA DE VOCENTO
- REGIONAL PRESS AND ABC: DIGITAL STRATEGY
- SUPPLEMENTS AND MAGAZINES
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
PRESS BRANDS: HISTORIC RESILIENCE
Revenues from print press and digital 2015-21E1
Data in YoY variation
EBITDA and comparable EBITDA Press 2015-21E1
Data in €m
EBITDA Comparable EBITDAPrint Digital
45.0
40.2
35.638.3
35.7
17.5
49.047.0
44.4 43.2 42.1
27.4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E
9
Recent
Develop.
(3.2%)
(6.4%)(4.6%)
(6.2%) (6.3%)
(15.8%)
16.1%
6.3%3.9%
10.2%12.7%
0.8%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E
Note 1: ABC, Regional, Supplements & Magazines. Revenues include circulation, digital subscriptions, advertising ande-commerce.
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
REGIONAL PRESS & ABC: DIGITAL GROWTH POTENTIAL
10
Digital press
strategy
Note 1: 2.2mn newspaper registrations by April 2021.
BASED ON QUALITY OF CONTENT, ENRICHED BY REGISTRATION1
DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTIONS
Since May 2021, all VOC papers have digital subscription models
PROGRAMMATIC LOCAL BRANDED CONTEXTUAL
2025E target: digital advertising >50% total ABC and Regional
DIGITAL ADVERTISING
LEADS
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 11
DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: VOCENTO’S STRATEGY FOR CAPTURE
Flexible, omnichannel communications with subscribers
Potential of dynamic paywall: based on user types and ways of access, aiming to make person personalised offers
Creation of a registration wall: halfway between anonymous readers and subscribers
1
2
3
Digital
subscriber
strategy
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
Paying subscribers (thousands)
DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: PERFORMANCE AND OBJETIVE
12Note: figures are rounded to the nearest 100 thousand euro.
Dec2016
40
Dec2017 Dec2018 Dec2019 Dec2020 Dec2021E
62
39
251917
8 10 1630
47
5
9 99
9
11
Total subscribers (thousands)
20 23 29 47 75Target
>100
Digital subscriptions performance
Digital
subscriptions
performance
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 13
COMBINED MARGIN ON CIRCULATION/SUBSCRIPTIONS STABILIZES
Performance of VOCENTO combined margin 1Q15-1Q21
Data in €m
Target: 2021E and beyond at
level of 2019
1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21
Accumulated variation in
margin1Q15-1Q21
€-0.3m
Digital
subscriptions
performance
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
REGIONAL PRESS + ABC: DRIVERS OF DIGITAL ADVERTISING
14
Strengthened by COVID and higher growth in
2021E
Increasing weight: 2021E 40%2 +4 pp vs
2020
PROGRAMMATIC
BRANDED CONTENT
New Project based on product, commercial
profiles and model (technology and
processes)
Contextual content and issues
LOCAL DIGITAL
CONTEXTUAL
Note 1: Gross advertising data. 2021E as budget. Note 2: weight in national advertising excluding Classifieds. 2021E growth as in Budget.
Data in %1
Digital advertising mix VOCENTO 2021E
Local
39%
Rest
49%
Branded
Content
13%
Programmatic
27%
Digital
advertising
strategy
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
DIFFERENTIATED POSITIONING IN PROGRAMMATIC
15Note 1: source Benchmark Adomik. May – December 2020 vs May – December 2019.
Programmatic growth 2019-20201
Data in % variation
Variation of CPM for programmatic 2019-20201
Data in % variation
52.2%
31.5%
Open 44.6%
Direct 76.0%
Open 17.5%
Direct 63.9%
Market
5.7%
(13.6%)
Open 0.2%
Direct 7.3%
Open (22.5%)
Direct 3.6%
Market
Digital
advertising
strategy
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
FORECASTS FOR PRESS MARKET AND VOCENTO
Forecast for print press market 2019-2024E1
Data in CAGR variation %
Forecasts for digital press 2019-2024E1
Market
Data in CAGR variation %
Note 1: market source PWC Entertainment and Media Outlook 2020-2024. Note 2: Regional and ABC. Gross advertising data.
16
Press
forecasts
Market
Local (5.5%)
National (8.6%)
Circulation Advertising
(7.0%)
(5.7%)
(10.1%)
(6.2%)
Subscription revenues Advertising
Local 9.1%
National 7.9%
7.1%
45.9%
5.2%8.3%
2 2
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
SUPPLEMENTS & MAGS.: DIGITAL EVOLUTION AND PROJECTS WITH EVENTS
In 2020
#1 in print and digital readership1
in their categories
1 million visualisations
+50 speakers in-person
and streaming
EBITDA +33% > 2019 Business group promoting high-level tourism
In 2021
Increase in EBITDA 2021E vs 2020 & 2019
Event and vertical dedicated to sustainability
Note 1: market source EGM and comScore respectively. 17
Supplements
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
SUPLEMENTS AND MAG.: REFOCUS OBJETIVE
Revenue mix advertising and events
Data in %
2020
Print Digital Events
Note 1: 2021E Vocento is budget. 18
59%30%
11%
2025E
34%
37%
29%
Weight 2021E1
print <50%
Supplements
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DIVERSIFIED BUSINESSES: CLASSIFIEDS, GASTRONOMY AND AGENCIES
19
- CLASSIFIEDS
- GASTRONOMY
- AGENCIES
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
CLASSIFIEDS: BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Advertising:
• Advertisers/Agencies
• Data/programmatic
Listing:
• Publication/positioning
• Free-freemium-Paid• Lead/CPL
• Sale/CPA
Tech
Sale of software solutions
B2C
B2B
C2B
Revenue typesBusiness type by customer
focusBusiness type by content
General
Verticals
Niche
20
Classifieds
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
CLASSIFIEDS: TOWARDS A TRANSACTIONAL BUSINESS MODEL
Publish
Attract users
Generate leads
Sell advertising
Manage the entire
process of capturing
users and making sales
on the platform
1.0
Listing4.0
Transaction
3.0
Supporting
transactions
In addition to 2.0
Managing leads
Fintech solutions
Associated services
Contact centre
21
In addition to 1.0
2.0
Services
Web business
Marketing
management
CRM/ERP tools
Classifieds
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
CLASSIFIEDS: VOCENTO PORTALS BUSINESS
22
Revenue mix by type of business
Data in %
Note 1: at Sumauto others is mainly appraisals, at pisos.com agreements
1.0 3.02.0
80%
8%
12%
84%
3% 14%
95%
2% 2%
89%
7%4%
2020 2025E
Variation of weights 2021-25
in increasing revenue
Classifieds
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
CLASSIFIEDS: STRATEGIC FOCUS ON B2B SUBSCRIPTIONS
23
Alliance with AS24 technology supplier
#2 in automotive, increasing client
market share
Business development
#3 in real estate, increasing client
market share
2019 2020 2021
Tacticaltargets
Strategic targets
Win share from #1, increase
prices
Grow scale,
increase
prices
Develop new
products focused on transaction
(3.0))
Workforce 2211
employeesRevenues €c30m2E
Main numbers in 2021
Note 1: March 2021. Note 2: 2021E Vocento budget.
Classifieds
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
CLASSIFIEDS: MARKET EVOLUTION
24
Customer variation mar21 vs mar20
Data in %1
Nota 1: source is Autobiz.
(7%)
(5%)
(8%)
(4%)
4%
(8%)
2% 2%
Motor Real Estate
Classifieds
Market Market
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
CONGRESSES
GASTRONOMY: LEADER IN THE SECTOR IN SPAIN
Note 1: 150 pages a week of gastronomical content. Note 2: March 2021. Note 3: 2021E Vocento budget.
EVENTS
30 vertical
and mass
events
25
Workforce of 312 employees. Revenues €c.10m3E
Main numbers 2021
Gastronomical
supplements
Gastro
TRAINING
Agreement
PUBLICATIONS1CONSULTING
strategic
gastronomical
consultancy
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
GASTRONOMY: FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS
26
Development of new verticals in Spain and possible international expansion
Internationalisation of the event to other continents
Approval by ANECA
Start of first course
Revenues €2mE and breakeven
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenues €3.5mE
Revenues €2mE1
Gastro
Note 1: 2021E Vocento budget.
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
AGENCIES: SOURCE OF DIVERSIFIED ADVERTISING REVENUES
27
Brand
strategy
Creativity and design
Digital strategy
Events
production
Media
planning
Media
distribution
Measurement of
results
Agencies
Value chain of a campaign
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
AGENCIES: MAIN NUMBERS
28
Workforce of 1161 3 employees. Revenues €c15mE 1 4
Main numbers 2021
Note 1: also includes Melé and Factor Moka. Note 2: data for end of 2020. Note 3: April 2021. Note 4: 2021E Vocento Budget.
Breakdown of workforce of the agencies
Data in %1 2
4.3%
35.3%
16.4%
24.1%
7.8%
7.8%
4.3%
Management
Accounts department
Digital team and e-commerce
Creative team and strategy
Structure and administration
Others
Events
Agencies
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
AGENCIES: FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS
29
Brands demand increasing levels of creativity and strategy
Capture advertising outside traditional media
Diversified portfolio
Exposure to digital marketing
Agencies
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MAIN FINANCIALS, CASH GENERATION AND VALUATION
30
- VOCENTO REVENUES COMPOSITION
- VOCENTO CASH GENERATION
- VOCENTO SUM OF THE PARTS VALUATION
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 31
CONSTANT INCREASE OF WEIGHT OF DIGITAL AND DIVERSIFICATION
VOCENTO revenue composition by business
Note 1: revenues 2015-2018 adjusted for IFRS15. Digital includes digital subscriptions, digital advertising, and Classifieds.
Data in % of total1
Financials
P&L
Digital (%) Diversification (%) Print (%) Audiovisual (%)
12% 13% 14% 16% 19% 21% 23%31%
5% 5%8%
12%
78% 76% 75% 74%69% 67% 62%
<50%
10% 11% 10% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2025E
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 32
BUSINESS MIX IN 2020
Revenues from businesses in 2020
Business weights vs “sustainable” press peers
Note 1: Source is company information and in-house. Revenues from e-commerce and Classifieds included in digital revenues and not in other revenues. Distribution and printing revenues as print revenues and not other revenues except NYT where detail is not disclosed. Data rounded to nearest p.p..
Data in % of total1
Financials
P&L
5% Gastro,
Agencies
and
Supplements
events
44%58%
26%33% 33%
23%
18%
11%9%
16%
1%
31%34%
3%
20%
20%
13%
13%
28%
13%5%
19%11%
19%
VOC Reach DMGT NYT VOC 2025E
Circulation Print advertising Digital subscriptions Digital advertising Other revenues
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 33
Vocento – NFD and Cash Generation
7.2 IFRS16
34.4
1.9 5.1
10.54.1
16.6
4.1
12.98.3
18.7
IFRS16 20.7
45.7
ex IFRS16
46.6
ex IFRS16
NFD 2019 Comp.EBITDA
WorkingCapital
Others Capex Tax Ordinary cashflow
FCF Indemn One off +NIIF16
NFD 2020
2020
43.0 49.6
2.7 1.410.8
5.3
32.1
7.2
24.9
10.1
24.6
45.7
ex IFRS16
NFD 2018 Comp.EBITDA
WorkingCapital
Others Capex TaxOrdinary
cashflow
Dividends,financials
FCF IndemOne off, div Voc,
NIIF16
NFD 2019
7.2 IFRS16
2019
EBITDA AND CASH GENERATION AT VOCENTO
Data in €m
Cash flow
Dividends,financials
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
Vocento: Ordinary free cash flow generated from businesses
Vocento: NFD ex IFRS16(€m)
• Newspapers are cash generative
• Other businesses will increase contribution
• FCF financed
restructuring,
diversification and
dividend payment in
2019
• Low NFD, solid FCF
FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION AND NET FINANCIAL DEBT
Data in €m
Cash flow
125.9108.8
66.456.2
43.0 45.7 46.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
39.9 32.1 16.630.5
38
Newspapers Audiovisual Classifieds Gastro, Agencies, others Corporate
30.6
7.52.0 0.3
(0.5)
12.8
5.62.6
(1.4)(2.9)
2018 2019 2020
20.1
7.80.7 0.3 1.6
2017
23.5
6.65.0
1.0
(3.9)
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 35
SUM OF PARTS, SHARE PRICE, VALUATION
Aspects to be noted:
• Current market value of press implies no recovery from Covid contraction in 2020, vs internal plan and múltiples of international press
peers
• Low valuation of Classifieds vs listed peers and recent transactions in the sector in Spain
• Gastronomy and Agencies are not well understood or valued
• Multiple assigned to corporate (vs multiples for main businesses)
• Other assets to consider (real estate, tax credits)
Note 1 : Adjusted implied multiple EV/EBITDA19 SOP proportionately for difference between SOP Enterprise Value and current market cap. Note 2: G is growth rate to perpetuity ( EV= free cash flow/WACC (8.25%) – G)).
Data in €m
Valuation
SOP average
from analysts
vs 2019 vs 2020
Press 171 0.4x 0.4x 4.1x 3.7x (5.5%) 0.8% ≈ 0%
Audiovisual 72 2.2x 1.9x 6.9x 6.2x (0.8%) 0.6%
Classifieds 69 2.2x 2.0x 11.0x 9.9x 1.0% 4.5% ≈ 16%
Gastro & Agencies 17 0.7x 0.7x 5.7x 5.1x 2.6% n.a. ≈ 17%Corporate (80) 6.9x 6.2x 3.3% 4.5%
Enterprise value 251 0.6x 0.6x 5.0x 4.5x (4.6%) 1.6%
Minorities (53)
Others 20
Asset Value
NFD (Dec 2020) (57)
Equity value 160
Current market cap. 135
EV/19 Sales
implicit multiple
Implicit 19
multiple
adjusted for
current market
cap.1
EV/EBITDA
Comp 19 implicit
SOP multiple
Implicit FCF
growth to
perpetuity2
Implicit 19
multiple
adjusted for
market cap1
Forecast comp.
EBITDA
growth19-25
218
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 36
METRICS AND MULTIPLES FOR CLASSIFIEDS
Revenue and EBITDA at VOCENTO Classifieds Listed Classifieds EMEA: EV/Sales vs EBITDA margin1
Listed Classifieds EMEA : EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA margin1
Note 1: Analyst consensus; source Bloomberg 13 May 2021.
Data in €m Vocento Classifieds SOP
Analysts (2.4x and 23%)
Vocento Classifieds SOP
Analysts (10.3x and 23%)
0
25
50
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenues EBITDA
Zillow
REA
Domain HoldingsRightmove
Scout24
Autotrader
Carsales.com
Cars.comCargurus
SchibstedAdevinta
0x
10x
20x
30x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
EV
/Sa
les
21
E
EBITDA margin 21E
Zillow
REA
Domain HoldingsRightmoveScout24
Autotrader
Carsales.com
Cars.com
Cargurus
Schibsted Adevinta
0x
20x
40x
60x
80x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
EV
/EB
ITD
A 2
1E
EBITDA margin 21E
Valuation
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 37
METRICS AND MULTIPLES FOR GASTRONOMY
Revenues and EBITDA at VOCENTO Gastronomy Listed Gastronomy EMEA: EV/Sales vs EBITDA margin1
Listed Gastronomy EMEA: EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA margin1
Note 1: Analyst Consensus; source Bloomberg 13 May 2021.
Gastro Vocento SOP
Analysts (5.2x and 15%)
Data in €m Gastro Vocento SOP
Analysts (0.7x and15%)
0
5
10
15
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenues EBITDA
InformaAscential
GL Events SA
Fiera Milano
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
EV
/Sa
les
21
E
EBITDA margin 21E
InformaAscential
GL Events SA
Fiera Milano
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
EBITDA margin 21EEV
/EB
ITD
A 2
1E
Valuation
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025 38
METRICS AND MULTIPLES FOR AGENCIES
Revenue and EBITDA at VOCENTO Agencies Listed Agencies EMEA: EV/Sales vs EBITDA margin 1
Listed Agencies EMEA: EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA margin1
Note 1: Analyst Consensus; source Bloomberg 13 May 2021..
Data in €m Vocento Agencies SOP
Analysts (0.7x and 14%)
Vocento Agencies SOP
Analysts (5.2x and 14%)
0
20
40
2019
(full year)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenuess EBITDA
WPP
PublicisOmnicom
Interpublic
0.5x
0.9x
1.3x
1.7x
2.1x
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%
EV
/Sa
les
21
E
EBITDA margin 21E
WPP
Publicis
Omnicom Interpublic
5.0x
8.0x
11.0x
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%
EBITDA margin 21EEV
/EB
ITD
A 2
1E
Valuation
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ESG
39
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
PROGRESS OF ESG POLICIES
40
EQUALITY
ENVIRONMENT
CORPORATE
GOVERNANCE
Crreation and Approval of
Policy for Equality and Non-
Discrimination
48% of permanente hires are
women
Of the 1,297 employees who received
training, 51.7% were women
Creation of Equality Committee
Approval of Environmental PolicyISO 14001 certification obtained at
Rotomadrid (70% of print plants
comply)
Increasing the number of women on the
Board to 27.3% in 2020 (+7.3% vs. 2019)Process for finding independent directors:
75%
of independents are women
Highlights Key variables
Strategic Growth drivers 2021-2025
Women in
workforce(%)
2018 2019 2020
44% 44% 45%
41
BLOOMBERG ESG METRICS FOR VOCENTO
Transparency coefficient
Base 100 Total ESG Social EnvironmentCorporate
Governance
These numbers measure, according to Bloomberg, the level of
transparency based on the number of issues on which the company
provides verifiable data
Key ESG metrics
45.548.8
54.1
63.2
71.975.4
36.4 36.4
45.048.2
53.6 53.6
2018
2019
2020
2018 2019 2020Greenhouse
gas
Emissions (Tns)
11.0 12.2 10.5IndependentDirectors. (%)
2018 2019 2020
30% 30% 36%Work accidents(number)
2018 2019 2020
97.0 82.0 45.0