Strategic Directions in Socio-economic Issues

Strategic Directions in Socio-economic Issues*Paul Willems, TVP Energy Biosciences EBI Associate Director

OutlineSocio economics in EBIBig picture energy context & where do biofuels fit inGoing after climate changeEnergy efficiencyElectricityTransportThe case for biofuelsPolicyBiomass availabilityLand availabilityEconomics

Land useAgricultural Intensification

EBI socio-economics agendaBe the trusted source for science underpinning policyNot involved in any lobbyingWe provide data, policy analysis and tools for policy implementationOpen to collaboration with other institutions with similar valuesEnable biofuels done well and avoid repeat of GMO introductionThinking ahead about tomorrows issuesFunded by BP, but not an agent of BP

Oil supply and cost curveAvailability of oil resources as a function of economic price

Source: IEA (2005)

Energy use grows with economic developmentSource: UN and DOE EIAUSAustraliaRussiaBrazilChinaIndiaS. KoreaMexicoIrelandGreeceFranceUKJapanMalaysiaenergy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002)

Data

RegionQuantity198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022002

USAE (MBTU)345.7332.8316.3312.7325.4321.3319.6326.8338.7343.9339.1335.2336.7339.7342.8347.1355.3353.7352.1354.9350.6337.9339.1

E (Gj)364.7407581474351.1127932772333.6557913179329.863280685343.2464626798338.993599495337.2130012427344.8144515474357.3094327026362.8339021791357.8029814857353.6372448861355.2074158698358.421476502361.6855148463366.1989174543374.797734984373.2016946605371.4349680174374.4043755919369.9222274918356.440912449357.7404236885

GDP (1995$)2061920911202692093322230228492339023945247022531725499251092560126000267632718527858287862970430593315323129631684

CO2 (tons)20.9920.1918.9518.6219.5019.2719.1419.6420.3520.4820.0919.6919.8720.0120.1120.1220.6520.7020.6320.7320.6220.0419.97

UKE (MBTU)156.9151.1148.7149.2149.4154.1156.5158.6158.2162.1160.7166.6161.7166.9165.5163.4172.4166.8167.2166.5164.5166.6162.2

E (Gj)165.5774885827159.443127411156.90159997157.3742336219157.5917875215162.5699731936165.0722610375167.3625706321166.8676056146170.9941660348169.5742996361175.7535528426170.6029476661176.0862810716174.5872441695172.3699401899181.8936662955176.0145962638176.4134036051175.705291904173.5867592253175.7442400843171.1231517058

GDP (1995$)1474514514147811528715642161701676917480183381868018771184551843818835196462014720605212422180222191227892321723490

CO2 (tons)10.9510.6510.2010.2210.1110.4110.4410.5710.4210.6610.4310.7110.0510.089.919.7010.089.679.399.149.469.689.36

FranceE (MBTU)156.7150.2144.0145.4149.5152.3153.7155.5153.5157.9161.1171.2170.8170.0168.9173.1178.7176.5180.0181.8184.0186.0183.6

E (Gj)165.3639086986158.4106494461151.8889920448153.4142870406157.7084209484160.7221408117162.1104992144164.0797824455161.9187563937166.5604848015169.9963927755180.6612144242180.154156468179.3342857709178.1968849074182.6572877506188.5009566089186.178261203189.8802056102191.8221813795194.1483505101196.2527011958193.654423961

GDP (1995$)1665216775171301729417485176451797518335190821977620188202852048320200205192076920912212282186822484232382355823680

CO2 (tons)9.268.347.947.557.267.216.646.516.136.596.596.936.646.366.146.356.656.496.866.796.936.926.81

JapanE (MBTU)130.3128.6123.3120.2130.3130.1129.5132.7140.2144.2148.0154.0154.4155.5162.3166.5168.9173.0168.7170.8172.6172.4172.3

E (Gj)137.497121671135.6400869939130.0755254433126.817331624137.5056221274137.210099311136.6301260103140.0149987371147.9099236071152.159548757156.1203921563162.4607822774162.8404217987164.0417029474171.1954617819175.6492286899178.1943615571182.4898163757178.0119442549180.2343363124182.1027034093181.8516052474181.7820121186

GDP (1995$)1506115372157401598816497171161753318229193312027221273218592199022016221692245423169235242320723307238082362523421

CO2 (tons)8.208.037.467.127.637.477.137.177.657.878.018.298.418.308.808.738.979.028.668.969.319.289.25

ChinaE (MBTU)17.517.217.618.519.621.021.522.423.623.723.424.124.726.228.228.929.330.329.629.230.531.833.3

E (Gj)18.477710425518.124559605718.612350294119.469554934520.677451514922.119275043822.688400507823.651538571624.878249763324.957069230724.656802999325.467607110626.09269417127.631770453429.73651354630.48205103430.920062785731.946230317431.195811686430.85843913932.14284517933.564780090535.1774927586

GDP (1995$)702729785858975109111691284140614421476159117972018225024622673288130773267350037263994

CO2 (tons)1.461.431.481.541.641.761.811.891.991.991.962.022.072.182.332.372.392.432.352.302.372.472.57

S. KoreaE (MBTU)44.045.446.248.149.654.260.966.573.378.289.2101.9112.8125.4134.0147.2150.5161.4147.2158.9167.5170.2177.0

E (Gj)46.381330468747.93298058848.758022640850.72732310652.376188184257.157962438564.259489148970.124817448577.309513490982.466562497194.1305406683107.5213103278119.021503436132.305467446141.3453369404155.2468335237158.747272601170.2862332565155.3097085197167.6055754934176.7336417768179.6089489861186.7318573463

GDP (1995$)41214325457249915332560961576765740277808397908294799898106101144912115126171168212860139621430215117

CO2 (tons)3.383.523.613.583.794.024.184.274.674.835.466.176.507.568.158.909.039.447.998.389.009.159.50

BrazilE (MBTU)33.331.431.330.933.535.037.037.438.038.540.039.939.840.842.043.845.847.648.548.849.848.448.7

E (Gj)35.088450749333.165931574532.985989345732.650120560635.363464614536.954575526639.068229093539.509707611740.142687994640.642226657342.155192316942.055420126742.017950790843.022455247644.261603040746.226710262948.338995828950.241754081551.177303950351.439728264852.533861075151.063457345251.4241908451

GDP (1995$)61505747565153405502581761586259613862285859584057205911616963376417653864576422661866266641

CO2 (tons)1.571.441.381.281.391.441.621.651.641.641.751.731.721.751.801.881.901.941.921.951.972.001.96

IrelandE (MBTU)95.091.590.087.288.990.397.296.895.299.0104.9109.5110.7113.6118.0119.7126.0133.5142.3149.8156.0169.6160.6

E (Gj)100.23742019496.485066157394.900588943691.968003406293.797728921495.2424752505102.5924627089102.1726784264100.4796681464104.4592780565110.7164881627115.4952489435116.8218511879119.8500865498124.5081621929126.2336752436132.960202329140.8478861914150.122121889157.9884469123164.6100339524178.9609875146169.3830514122

GDP (1995$)1010910329104591034410727110181096311494121291286413962142071462814939156861710818256200132148123524259052709527744

CO2 (tons)6.646.326.055.885.685.926.706.606.626.897.357.627.877.878.098.678.859.119.6810.1010.5811.7511.53

MexicoE (MBTU)54.658.860.855.958.759.559.059.859.960.761.862.662.561.262.460.460.359.861.761.363.560.665.0

E (Gj)57.560767042562.079295075664.140027097958.938551691761.933794036762.786420846762.236038945663.068461406263.167299265964.08272863965.218080219666.033618692265.885670958564.61688662665.786315150563.704643467163.665393784863.042878634465.120062427264.629367171367.021350198563.905943457868.5409794662

GDP (1995$)71727618740069367035706966666656660967556965712472477255744168617092744676937845823080918030

CO2 (tons)3.463.713.783.463.733.623.773.823.793.703.703.643.673.533.683.503.643.683.993.663.803.653.56

MalaysiaE (MBTU)30.531.231.634.540.244.646.545.547.249.054.058.960.466.271.872.178.677.876.677.481.291.497.1

E (Gj)32.219350378932.882194556133.351195328136.417044265242.418095301447.04823474549.022047486248.009581802649.776684190951.697764356257.014914073162.150494618863.73896386669.861846641775.779455379576.035133717182.875572189682.065584143580.781564954981.644652674285.615326894596.3882891263102.4705335743

GDP (1995$)37743936406342054413425041894302461048995202555058846297669871687684804072677533798078488017

CO2 (tons)1.982.082.182.542.832.903.052.802.802.983.593.813.874.294.474.364.834.734.644.704.855.445.86

GreeceE (MBTU)78.076.874.475.977.781.683.989.895.499.3102.3103.699.4104.1104.7107.7108.4112.7118.6116.9122.5123.7125.8

E (Gj)82.267006416181.015005136478.467458543880.088450605681.953538637886.107921888788.553346620194.7454793472100.6280582943104.785140989107.9194926857109.3388427101104.8637531849109.825878033110.4981505953113.5833345722114.341682455118.928114035125.0807932363123.3726225997129.2506039039130.4880111603132.6717293976

GDP (1995$)1220911914117001151311692119311193911618120631246512407127311275812486126571282913021133671368714038145511508715652

CO2 (tons)5.725.695.495.795.906.366.446.997.557.668.038.017.808.118.228.078.158.488.848.599.309.449.51

IndiaE (MBTU)6.26.66.67.07.57.98.38.28.99.29.69.710.110.310.912.311.812.212.412.713.313.413.3

E (Gj)6.50541300436.95571805487.00529005377.36277527737.90379519298.29393201618.73337439878.63423339169.41268116519.666172302210.135207770510.24753110710.625218789810.867226942711.51023368313.014348102912.403501346912.842315773413.055376272613.436495449513.980964763514.131503709414.0533113196

GDP (1995$)10801125114211981221126412981325142714881543152715761622171018071906195520362144219222752338

CO2 (tons)0.450.480.490.510.550.590.620.620.670.680.710.720.750.770.800.930.870.900.910.930.980.980.98

AustraliaE (MBTU)187.7186.2190.7185.8195.6200.0198.5203.7210.3215.6218.4217.3220.4222.5219.7224.1230.3246.1245.0254.4253.6270.8286.3

E (Gj)198.0747371811196.4436288588201.2285894583195.9750765996206.3187702216210.9793824732209.4571006551214.860754017221.8470738819227.4423875547230.3850252372229.26933097232.5173870156234.7005887055231.831696308236.436138093243.0068424815259.6008464795258.4327025252268.3719048936267.5850660302285.6866661968302.0402108303

GDP (1995$)1661516930162651687817462179191808818764192221963619329191031952820016205792117421681223752328124004242062489225510

CO2 (tons)13.6413.3813.6913.5313.9514.2814.0514.4114.7315.2615.5515.6215.9016.0315.8116.1516.3017.6917.6918.5818.7220.2221.00

RussiaE (MBTU)169.7168.4173.1175.3182.4187.8190.8193.6197.6194.4190.2177.2164.7153.4138.5134.8132.8127.7125.5128.9130.5133.9134.6

E (Gj)179.0811161913177.6445609349182.6335087543184.9466593757192.4329191367198.149221205201.3248333911204.2716225675208.4510005971205.0863961576200.6479751305186.9556545733173.7310453656161.8591687366146.1030866391142.2097870817140.1029653901134.7301109993132.4323218543136.025011064137.6415447094141.2817496575142.0241118116

GDP (1995$)840785948864913493269446959895909946100709724920978657188629560465855592556545983655169137250

CO2 (tons)11.5811.4911.7311.8612.1312.3612.6612.7312.9012.5012.1911.1310.369.518.438.097.927.577.447.697.737.857.82

ThailandE (MBTU)10.911.410.911.412.513.613.714.816.719.422.424.225.628.931.837.840.742.639.742.845.246.649.0

E (Gj)11.468248764812.032644031711.515895814212.054894757113.135410364814.355572429114.45443574515.599131709417.603009504920.478198882523.657729193425.56527617427.016908578330.485735155233.532003174839.851207209242.95277377544.945409027841.905705047145.169639674947.703295985349.195694727251.6997568491

GDP (1995$)23422432251526102714279529053135350138744249455348595195559560436330617754725657586059126157

CO2 (tons)0.770.760.720.750.810.890.880.981.101.281.511.651.761.992.182.632.812.882.622.922.802.863.01

Chart1

364.7407581474165.5774885827165.3639086986137.49712167118.477710425535.0884507493100.23742019457.560767042532.219350378946.381330468782.26700641616.5054130043198.0747371811179.0811161913

351.1127932772159.443127411158.4106494461135.640086993918.124559605733.165931574596.485066157362.079295075632.882194556147.93298058881.01500513646.9557180548196.4436288588177.6445609349

333.6557913179156.90159997151.8889920448130.075525443318.612350294132.985989345794.900588943664.140027097933.351195328148.758022640878.46745854387.0052900537201.2285894583182.6335087543

329.863280685157.3742336219153.4142870406126.81733162419.469554934532.650120560691.968003406258.938551691736.417044265250.72732310680.08845060567.3627752773195.9750765996184.9466593757

343.2464626798157.5917875215157.7084209484137.505622127420.677451514935.363464614593.797728921461.933794036742.418095301452.376188184281.95353863787.9037951929206.3187702216192.4329191367

338.993599495162.5699731936160.7221408117137.21009931122.119275043836.954575526695.242475250562.786420846747.04823474557.157962438586.10792188878.2939320161210.9793824732198.149221205

337.2130012427165.0722610375162.1104992144136.630126010322.688400507839.0682290935102.592462708962.236038945649.022047486264.259489148988.55334662018.7333743987209.4571006551201.3248333911

344.8144515474167.3625706321164.0797824455140.014998737123.651538571639.5097076117102.172678426463.068461406248.009581802670.124817448594.74547934728.6342333916214.860754017204.2716225675

357.3094327026166.8676056146161.9187563937147.909923607124.878249763340.1426879946100.479668146463.167299265949.776684190977.3095134909100.62805829439.4126811651221.8470738819208.4510005971

362.8339021791170.9941660348166.5604848015152.15954875724.957069230740.6422266573104.459278056564.08272863951.697764356282.4665624971104.7851409899.6661723022227.4423875547205.0863961576

357.8029814857169.5742996361169.9963927755156.120392156324.656802999342.1551923169110.716488162765.218080219657.014914073194.1305406683107.919492685710.1352077705230.3850252372200.6479751305

353.6372448861175.7535528426180.6612144242162.460782277425.467607110642.0554201267115.495248943566.033618692262.1504946188107.5213103278109.338842710110.247531107229.26933097186.9556545733

355.2074158698170.6029476661180.154156468162.840421798726.09269417142.0179507908116.821851187965.885670958563.738963866119.021503436104.863753184910.6252187898232.5173870156173.7310453656

358.421476502176.0862810716179.3342857709164.041702947427.631770453443.0224552476119.850086549864.61688662669.8618466417132.305467446109.82587803310.8672269427234.7005887055161.8591687366

361.6855148463174.5872441695178.1968849074171.195461781929.73651354644.2616030407124.508162192965.786315150575.7794553795141.3453369404110.498150595311.510233683231.831696308146.1030866391

366.1989174543172.3699401899182.6572877506175.649228689930.48205103446.2267102629126.233675243663.704643467176.0351337171155.2468335237113.583334572213.0143481029236.436138093142.2097870817

374.797734984181.8936662955188.5009566089178.194361557130.920062785748.3389958289132.96020232963.665393784882.8755721896158.747272601114.34168245512.4035013469243.0068424815140.1029653901

373.2016946605176.0145962638186.178261203182.489816375731.946230317450.2417540815140.847886191463.042878634482.0655841435170.2862332565118.92811403512.8423157734259.6008464795134.7301109993

371.4349680174176.4134036051189.8802056102178.011944254931.195811686451.1773039503150.12212188965.120062427280.7815649549155.3097085197125.080793236313.0553762726258.4327025252132.4323218543

374.4043755919175.705291904191.8221813795180.234336312430.85843913951.4397282648157.988446912364.629367171381.6446526742167.6055754934123.372622599713.4364954495268.3719048936136.025011064

369.9222274918173.5867592253194.1483505101182.102703409332.14284517952.5338610751164.610033952467.021350198585.6153268945176.7336417768129.250603903913.9809647635267.5850660302137.6415447094

356.440912449175.7442400843196.2527011958181.851605247433.564780090551.0634573452178.960987514663.905943457896.3882891263179.6089489861130.488011160314.1315037094285.6866661968141.2817496575

357.7404236885171.1231517058193.654423961181.782012118635.177492758651.4241908451169.383051412268.5409794662102.4705335743186.7318573463132.671729397614.0533113196302.0402108303142.0241118116

USA

UK

France

Japan

China

Brazil

Ireland

Mexico

Malaysia

S. Korea

Greece

India

Australia

Russia

GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

Primary Energy per capita (GJ)

E-GDP

CO2-GDP

CO2-GDP

20.98571483710.94600375649.25639237528.19854876541.46365996121.57070771256.63598358483.46436078921.97562006823.38167917495.72423386490.449069468813.637425199511.57750857840.7667724636

20.189852786310.64688684358.34345474048.02816920931.43146462571.43836219956.31752715653.71465724092.08285504413.51611772295.69307416670.480752308713.381867124711.48563796470.7616545371

18.948234159210.19717436747.93573396897.46059361311.47536513071.37830352916.05240704323.77543304032.17613669223.61314122735.48915610220.488919561613.685698920411.73103263140.7197405227

18.620229686810.21935216427.54649414117.11617107451.53943840071.27856411275.8799708373.45629917532.53664467563.57632241965.7883159060.513986787313.527956466611.86046319140.74810213

19.495245005210.10504945687.26106777127.62645460831.64472453521.38998933375.67809315863.73259687342.82882929883.79145010955.90383251910.550839540113.953662601512.13297044520.8056341811

19.270156990110.41419955697.21477064967.46846383251.75826861831.4366291995.92326940023.6186204352.8987478194.01570258616.3596123430.587993080814.279639574212.35740037830.8925619327

19.136134515210.44055810146.6428307167.12574818931.81275070671.62339281036.70242984423.77450854613.05117617884.18029717616.43599363020.618570166114.045101915412.65698561160.8759852246

19.635784001710.57356245936.51096061327.17073377761.89322796211.64517006336.60383900243.81682712032.80174788284.27330256376.99357920820.618211389114.408249091712.72776060370.9764012431

20.353703988710.41938312266.12861201977.6514812071.98949534911.64450956346.62474848723.79301261162.80106764384.66984337167.5472709850.665943881614.725750517812.90424120141.0976618303

20.483656351210.65691946456.58845825287.86695869821.98630643171.63699618436.88943417673.69920251432.98221213054.82816247237.6605511820.68261774715.256509052212.4981728321.2784951009

20.08645111110.4257049656.59262024058.01430660171.95787548871.74566109497.3512071383.69887629593.59136178155.45850408088.025281220.710394339815.553590061612.18794189291.5112863528

19.689608152910.70882025936.92597238818.29290056052.02398081551.72694109837.62394895543.64318855413.81047311626.17213732388.01409191130.721128091415.617991346711.13394328111.6498099313

19.868826882110.04994341146.64257945588.41010661662.06959746091.72332614887.86637958793.66818169723.86721096926.4995931187.80033238760.750692989515.904540214710.3639825831.7568514023

20.007277319410.08330557086.35735944668.29930305642.18293879771.74922765747.87354971673.52692304174.28538743267.5602355758.10766255090.774879806316.03052098339.51317228171.9908200378

20.1071350669.91392096946.14286877778.8040285512.33172707431.80232280388.08550140653.67919720434.4733616938.15349395898.22225142690.802847798315.81157883278.43249405082.1839619363

20.1234705319.69757345516.35018319948.72705456022.36861683261.8835563478.67164139933.49631359594.35818955778.89652152648.06562646120.930993446416.14913378168.09241401852.6318759827

20.649096068210.08333238246.64837325758.96559606372.3920624371.89686544128.84957284753.64014282284.82854650999.02819908988.15068649820.874848944616.30051983997.92431063872.8110547529

20.70057784119.67055974086.48513815489.02262196132.43228417681.94283179359.10994862093.68121932954.7308909279.43632339198.48243017440.904326414217.69487787787.56756713542.8751794767

20.63136319019.3942030256.85831899748.66298830752.35452231041.91772473969.68443245173.99485279984.64069702817.98718759458.84153344490.913894196517.69098238217.43898875512.6218475199

20.73333574929.13738968356.78793627488.95648635542.30340131171.952516252710.10380194283.6557458044.69662753738.38256797478.58991696420.93381239718.57962842737.68974865522.9152420286

20.62303664659.46374100246.93063439479.30958785222.365988571.96742155310.58259088423.79907252174.85399706138.99906931989.29823761490.979513486818.72210878037.72560573892.7958528092

20.03736528419.68461870666.91733502949.28463831752.47101586271.996091389911.74817680083.65275076415.43625749489.14717698949.44136008290.977494653320.21545876687.84986981322.8602603154

19.96502810329.35860263876.80550643649.25205972122.56575949591.963018448211.5309779643.55508099075.86356855769.49909267389.5128720.977746517221.00216548317.82255267893.0050132942

r

USA

UK

France

Japan

China

Brazil

Ireland

Mexico

Malaysia

S. Korea

Greece

India

Australia

Russia

Thailand

GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

CO2 per capita (tonnes)

Emissions and GDP 1980-2002

CO2-E

CO2-E

20.98571483710.94600375649.25639237528.19854876541.46365996121.57070771256.63598358483.46436078921.97562006823.38167917495.72423386490.449069468813.637425199511.57750857840.7667724636

20.189852786310.64688684358.34345474048.02816920931.43146462571.43836219956.31752715653.71465724092.08285504413.51611772295.69307416670.480752308713.381867124711.48563796470.7616545371

18.948234159210.19717436747.93573396897.46059361311.47536513071.37830352916.05240704323.77543304032.17613669223.61314122735.48915610220.488919561613.685698920411.73103263140.7197405227

18.620229686810.21935216427.54649414117.11617107451.53943840071.27856411275.8799708373.45629917532.53664467563.57632241965.7883159060.513986787313.527956466611.86046319140.74810213

19.495245005210.10504945687.26106777127.62645460831.64472453521.38998933375.67809315863.73259687342.82882929883.79145010955.90383251910.550839540113.953662601512.13297044520.8056341811

19.270156990110.41419955697.21477064967.46846383251.75826861831.4366291995.92326940023.6186204352.8987478194.01570258616.3596123430.587993080814.279639574212.35740037830.8925619327

19.136134515210.44055810146.6428307167.12574818931.81275070671.62339281036.70242984423.77450854613.05117617884.18029717616.43599363020.618570166114.045101915412.65698561160.8759852246

19.635784001710.57356245936.51096061327.17073377761.89322796211.64517006336.60383900243.81682712032.80174788284.27330256376.99357920820.618211389114.408249091712.72776060370.9764012431

20.353703988710.41938312266.12861201977.6514812071.98949534911.64450956346.62474848723.79301261162.80106764384.66984337167.5472709850.665943881614.725750517812.90424120141.0976618303

20.483656351210.65691946456.58845825287.86695869821.98630643171.63699618436.88943417673.69920251432.98221213054.82816247237.6605511820.68261774715.256509052212.4981728321.2784951009

20.08645111110.4257049656.59262024058.01430660171.95787548871.74566109497.3512071383.69887629593.59136178155.45850408088.025281220.710394339815.553590061612.18794189291.5112863528

19.689608152910.70882025936.92597238818.29290056052.02398081551.72694109837.62394895543.64318855413.81047311626.17213732388.01409191130.721128091415.617991346711.13394328111.6498099313

19.868826882110.04994341146.64257945588.41010661662.06959746091.72332614887.86637958793.66818169723.86721096926.4995931187.80033238760.750692989515.904540214710.3639825831.7568514023

20.007277319410.08330557086.35735944668.29930305642.18293879771.74922765747.87354971673.52692304174.28538743267.5602355758.10766255090.774879806316.03052098339.51317228171.9908200378

20.1071350669.91392096946.14286877778.8040285512.33172707431.80232280388.08550140653.67919720434.4733616938.15349395898.22225142690.802847798315.81157883278.43249405082.1839619363

20.1234705319.69757345516.35018319948.72705456022.36861683261.8835563478.67164139933.49631359594.35818955778.89652152648.06562646120.930993446416.14913378168.09241401852.6318759827

20.649096068210.08333238246.64837325758.96559606372.3920624371.89686544128.84957284753.64014282284.82854650999.02819908988.15068649820.874848944616.30051983997.92431063872.8110547529

20.70057784119.67055974086.48513815489.02262196132.43228417681.94283179359.10994862093.68121932954.7308909279.43632339198.48243017440.904326414217.69487787787.56756713542.8751794767

20.63136319019.3942030256.85831899748.66298830752.35452231041.91772473969.68443245173.99485279984.64069702817.98718759458.84153344490.913894196517.69098238217.43898875512.6218475199

20.73333574929.13738968356.78793627488.95648635542.30340131171.952516252710.10380194283.6557458044.69662753738.38256797478.58991696420.93381239718.57962842737.68974865522.9152420286

20.62303664659.46374100246.93063439479.30958785222.365988571.96742155310.58259088423.79907252174.85399706138.99906931989.29823761490.979513486818.72210878037.72560573892.7958528092

20.03736528419.68461870666.91733502949.28463831752.47101586271.996091389911.74817680083.65275076415.43625749489.14717698949.44136008290.977494653320.21545876687.84986981322.8602603154

19.96502810329.35860263876.80550643649.25205972122.56575949591.963018448211.5309779643.55508099075.86356855769.49909267389.5128720.977746517221.00216548317.82255267893.0050132942

USA

UK

France

Japan

China

Brazil

Ireland

Mexico

Malaysia

S. Korea

Greece

India

Australia

Russia

Thailand

Primary energy per capita (Gj)

CO2 per capita (tonnes)

Emissions and Energy 1980-2002

Rapid Demand Growth Across All SectorsSource: IEA WEO 2004Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)Energy Demand (bnboe)Key:

Fuels Mix Projected to Remain Similar* - excludes traditional biomass

Source: IEA 200420022030Global Primary Energy Supply by Fuel*:

Source : IPCC 4 report, 2007

the fungibility of carbonPrimary EnergyConversion TechnologyProducts

Energy efficiency opportunitiesUS example

Lower Carbon electricity via natural gas

New gas-fired power capacity is lower carbon, more efficient, cheaper and quicker to build than coal (with and without CCS)

Technology Key:

SCGT =Single CycleGas Turbine

CCGT =Combined CycleGas Turbine

CCS =Carbon Ccapture & Storage

LCOE =levelised cost of electricity

HHV = Higher Heating Value efficiency measure

Overnight Capex = all capital expenditure for build & installation upto opening

Source: BP Alternative Energy

US natural gas resources & production

Technology advances have transformed the secure US energy pool with gas from shale

Bcf/d

Conventional

Alaska

Tight

CBM

Shale

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

Source: 2009 Report of the Potential Gas Committee Potential Resources does not include Proved Reserves * Includes Conventional, Alaska and Tight Gas

Potential gas resources (TCF)

Production (1990-2020)

Chart2

40.43191780821.04501369865.76950684930.81438356160.7327671233

39.64158904111.12158904115.91460273971.00835616440.8010136986

39.45679452051.12764383566.62178082190.87569863010.7944931507

39.00232876711.09065753426.88290410961.78197260270.818739726

39.58180821921.43687671237.8361095891.86709589040.8425753425

38.66219178081.19041095897.71939726032.52254794520.8606849315

38.1407397261.2128.78972602742.66594520550.8465479452

36.87512328771.1692602749.60153424663.20545205480.9357808219

36.20186301371.168575342510.33427397263.46309589040.9515068493

35.71019178081.163150684910.10958904113.64654794520.9656712329

35.41832876711.149780821910.83997260273.96906849321.176109589

35.28024657531.192575342511.7426301374.21378082191.314109589

32.63315068491.174246575312.22682191784.31230136991.5104109589

32.47682191781.250520547912.65465753424.33427397261.6085205479

29.19238356161.202356164413.94717808224.70717808221.8848219178

26.63909589041.258438356214.7433698634.77356164382.1039726027

25.84928388461.150920619715.6548108145.03557218262.9281031596

26.63466342511.155711363416.84058725025.04397006883.1936119681

26.66079573441.017889911218.51681356565.53144363514.4591038194

26.24907950831.015621015518.58494902315.3560959155.9540082331

25.60822081891.011285716517.81074576184.88794176556.2923653485

25.93115878430.918948568717.81159361754.86306850226.6531468744

26.16221708790.89287145518.04626020674.89416840966.9074624205

25.80287456510.899699861117.86862987364.80873094856.9777861033

25.18336740260.907276754517.81885199354.78147513257.0418253337

24.72180862950.91253625217.89371934664.80444496637.1768806405

24.54982065170.916876286718.14507654274.90109463267.3724106567

24.62935186410.921337326918.25738932994.92742616847.5590910977

24.75992947410.926393352118.45253069114.98405645977.7933226546

24.89113023840.931823090318.51407795745.01866503947.9723887248

24.46904835643.135594603118.0922508244.88169683178.095984263

24.54665752315.339255071717.56932245544.73186871788.1499668017

24.30177845375.344228221918.0429497814.91783129038.5078664022

25.47910768695.348938785218.00666312654.979460868.5387099279

25.2382885925.353463512618.46421124185.12343824739.001681576

24.89721121855.3579219418.6563713915.19201559569.3634233083

24.3973620955.362711540618.95961500195.30657180379.7656674581

23.62165842975.367658889519.24857440065.412485828110.2328391924

23.92683029175.372571945219.13019598355.426660955810.3829540618

23.47325658155.377279895619.38707534585.506556001410.8984104575

23.06351629025.38204761419.41420672695.512698055911.3267637279

Conventional

Alaska

Tight

CBM

Shale

Charts

Charts

40.43191780821.04501369860.81438356165.76950684930.7327671233

39.64158904111.12158904111.00835616445.91460273970.8010136986

39.45679452051.12764383560.87569863016.62178082190.7944931507

39.00232876711.09065753421.78197260276.88290410960.818739726

39.58180821921.43687671231.86709589047.8361095890.8425753425

38.66219178081.19041095892.52254794527.71939726030.8606849315

38.1407397261.2122.66594520558.78972602740.8465479452

36.87512328771.1692602743.20545205489.60153424660.9357808219

36.20186301371.16857534253.463095890410.33427397260.9515068493

35.71019178081.16315068493.646547945210.10958904110.9656712329

35.41832876711.14978082193.969068493210.83997260271.176109589

35.28024657531.19257534254.213780821911.7426301371.314109589

32.63315068491.17424657534.312301369912.22682191781.5104109589

32.47682191781.25052054794.334273972612.65465753421.6085205479

29.19238356161.20235616444.707178082213.94717808221.8848219178

26.63909589041.25843835624.773561643814.7433698632.1039726027

25.84928388461.15092061975.035572182615.6548108142.9281031596

26.63466342511.15571136345.043970068816.84058725023.1936119681

26.66079573441.01788991125.531443635118.51681356564.4591038194

26.24907950831.01562101555.35609591518.58494902315.9540082331

25.60822081891.01128571654.887941765517.81074576186.2923653485

25.93115878430.91894856874.863068502217.81159361756.6531468744

26.16221708790.8928714554.894168409618.04626020676.9074624205

25.80287456510.89969986114.808730948517.86862987366.9777861033

25.18336740260.90727675454.781475132517.81885199357.0418253337

24.72180862950.9125362524.804444966317.89371934667.1768806405

24.54982065170.91687628674.901094632618.14507654277.3724106567

24.62935186410.92133732694.927426168418.25738932997.5590910977

24.75992947410.92639335214.984056459718.45253069117.7933226546

24.89113023840.93182309035.018665039418.51407795747.9723887248

24.46904835643.13559460314.881696831718.0922508248.095984263

24.54665752315.33925507174.731868717817.56932245548.1499668017

24.30177845375.34422822194.917831290318.0429497818.5078664022

25.47910768695.34893878524.9794608618.00666312658.5387099279

25.2382885925.35346351265.123438247318.46421124189.001681576

24.89721121855.357921945.192015595618.6563713919.3634233083

24.3973620955.36271154065.306571803718.95961500199.7656674581

23.62165842975.36765888955.412485828119.248574400610.2328391924

23.92683029175.37257194525.426660955819.130195983510.3829540618

23.47325658155.37727989565.506556001419.387075345810.8984104575

23.06351629025.3820476145.512698055919.414206726911.3267637279

Conventional

Alaska

CBM

Tight

Shale

Prododuction aeo2009

40.43191780821.04501369865.76950684930.81438356160.732767123350.2559870411

39.64158904111.12158904115.91460273971.00835616440.801013698650.1916706849

39.45679452051.12764383566.62178082190.87569863010.794493150750.8936370589

39.00232876711.09065753426.88290410961.78197260270.81873972651.8245207397

39.58180821921.43687671237.8361095891.86709589040.842575342554.0660357534

38.66219178081.19041095897.71939726032.52254794520.860684931553.6973098767

38.1407397261.2128.78972602742.66594520550.846547945254.4605459041

36.87512328771.1692602749.60153424663.20545205480.935780821954.6454326849

36.20186301371.168575342510.33427397263.46309589040.951506849355.1509480685

35.71019178081.163150684910.10958904113.64654794520.965671232955.0240176849

35.41832876711.149780821910.83997260273.96906849321.17610958956.185075274

35.28024657531.192575342511.7426301374.21378082191.31410958957.4775164658

32.63315068491.174246575312.22682191784.31230136991.510410958955.6179245068

32.47682191781.250520547912.65465753424.33427397261.608520547955.9318555205

29.19238356161.202356164413.94717808224.70717808221.884821917854.7357908082

26.63909589041.258438356214.7433698634.77356164382.103972602753.3872373562

25.84928388461.150920619715.6548108145.03557218262.928103159659.3348818283

26.63466342511.155711363416.84058725025.04397006883.193611968163.1766967577

26.66079573441.017889911218.51681356565.53144363514.459103819464.2330927392

26.24907950831.015621015518.58494902315.3560959155.954008233163.3639079251

25.60822081891.011285716517.81074576184.88794176556.292365348561.4992273997

25.93115878430.918948568717.81159361754.86306850226.653146874461.6477143275

26.16221708790.89287145518.04626020674.89416840966.907462420562.5282635428

25.80287456510.899699861117.86862987364.80873094856.977786103362.3220221637

25.18336740260.907276754517.81885199354.78147513257.041825333761.9771988425

24.72180862950.91253625217.89371934664.80444496637.176880640562.1726249995

24.54982065170.916876286718.14507654274.90109463267.372410656762.696874305

24.62935186410.921337326918.25738932994.92742616847.559091097763.123975388

24.75992947410.926393352118.45253069114.98405645977.793322654663.6191025172

24.89113023840.931823090318.51407795745.01866503947.972388724863.6768282276

24.46904835643.135594603118.0922508244.88169683178.09598426363.9511661987

24.54665752315.339255071717.56932245544.73186871788.149966801764.7377283606

24.30177845375.344228221918.0429497814.91783129038.507866402265.3561022184

25.47910768695.348938785218.00666312654.979460868.538709927966.3362065407

25.2382885925.353463512618.46421124185.12343824739.00168157667.1726282329

24.89721121855.3579219418.6563713915.19201559569.363423308367.348681574

24.3973620955.362711540618.95961500195.30657180379.765667458167.4415511628

23.62165842975.367658889519.24857440065.412485828110.232839192467.2532419636

23.92683029175.372571945219.13019598355.426660955810.382954061867.0785116823

23.47325658155.377279895619.38707534585.506556001410.898410457566.8392005032

23.06351629025.38204761419.41420672695.512698055911.326763727966.7411655596

Conventional

Tight

Shale

CBM

Alaska

Conventional

Alaska

Tight

CBM

Shale

1990

1990

1990

1990

1990

1991

1991

1991

1991

1991

1992

1992

1992

1992

1992

1993

1993

1993

1993

1993

1994

1994

1994

1994

1994

1995

1995

1995

1995

1995

1996

1996

1996

1996

1996

1997

1997

1997

1997

1997

1998

1998

1998

1998

1998

1999

1999

1999

1999

1999

2000

2000

2000

2000

2000

2001

2001

2001

2001

2001

2002

2002

2002

2002

2002

2003

2003

2003

2003

2003

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2005

2005

2005

2005

2005

2006

2006

2006

2006

2006

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2009

2009

2009

2009

2009

2010

2010

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2017

2017

2017

2017

2017

2018

2018

2018

2018

2018

2019

2019

2019

2019

2019

2020

2020

2020

2020

2020

2021

2021

2021

2021

2021

2022

2022

2022

2022

2022

2023

2023

2023

2023

2023

2024

2024

2024

2024

2024

2025

2025

2025

2025

2025

2026

2026

2026

2026

2026

2027

2027

2027

2027

2027

2028

2028

2028

2028

2028

2029

2029

2029

2029

2029

2030

2030

2030

2030

2030

0.828631765

0.0214170287

0.1182431332

0.0166903804

0.0150176926

0.8175689534

0.0231316756

0.1219828894

0.0207963584

0.0165201231

0.8072768386

0.0230713306

0.1354800954

0.0179165903

0.0162551451

0.7867083788

0.0219994407

0.1388337185

0.0359438224

0.0165146396

0.7676179253

0.0278656375

0.1519672409

0.0362089641

0.0163402322

0.7587482109

0.0233618981

0.1514937098

0.0495051794

0.0168910018

0.7383751829

0.0234633814

0.1701622887

0.0516106345

0.0163885126

0.7120515958

0.0225781928

0.1854037946

0.0618966677

0.0180697491

0.6945959088

0.0224211569

0.1982810779

0.0664455372

0.0182563191

0.6921230253

0.0225437986

0.1959406825

0.0706761759

0.0187163177

0.6739511228

0.0218783919

0.2062664152

0.0755246862

0.0223793839

0.6564579901

0.0221901967

0.2184946004

0.0784056337

0.0244515791

0.6292919719

0.0226439656

0.235779896

0.0831576656

0.0291265008

0.620677486

0.0238991965

0.2418482031

0.0828340371

0.0307410772

0.5731423149

0.0236061983

0.2738288881

0.0924173573

0.0370052413

0.5379631663

0.0254135308

0.2977349519

0.0963996807

0.0424886703

0.5106667823

0.0227370682

0.3092693748

0.0994804906

0.0578462841

0.5037903708

0.0218600944

0.3185369967

0.0954058818

0.0604066562

0.4745091943

0.0181164181

0.3295624922

0.0984487068

0.0793631886

0.4592231039

0.0177681139

0.3251404672

0.0937039712

0.1041643438

0.4604920556

0.0181851383

0.3202763279

0.0878959287

0.1131505494

0.4615898999

0.0163578258

0.3170568575

0.0865654837

0.1184299331

0.4597688431

0.0156911195

0.3171408657

0.0860090007

0.121390171

0.4578409834

0.0159640922

0.3170573516

0.0853251486

0.1238124242

0.4518590297

0.0162790459

0.3197193228

0.0857928441

0.1263497574

0.4453626441

0.0164393133

0.3223548196

0.0865519326

0.1292912904

0.4392895802

0.0164064009

0.3246843702

0.087699207

0.1319204416

0.4375082816

0.0163663548

0.3243186859

0.087529293

0.1342773847

0.4350240402

0.0162764348

0.3242050613

0.0875682776

0.136926186

0.4341873659

0.0162542162

0.3229495271

0.087542869

0.1390660218

0.4170298363

0.0534404316

0.3083490739

0.0831995262

0.137981132

0.4068254771

0.088490459

0.2911862026

0.0784239055

0.1350739558

0.3976424115

0.0874459374

0.2952311525

0.0804689376

0.139211561

0.4086275971

0.0857849509

0.2887863883

0.0798593558

0.1369417078

0.3994595744

0.0847320629

0.2922427144

0.0810913329

0.1424743155

0.3922862811

0.0844206708

0.2939541496

0.0818066116

0.1475322869

0.3824521832

0.084065676

0.2972102526

0.0831856314

0.1530862568

0.369763134

0.0840229901

0.3013087847

0.0847246915

0.1601803997

0.37246456

0.0836338379

0.2977962372

0.0844758315

0.1616295334

0.3631237677

0.0831847992

0.2999118516

0.0851846592

0.1685949222

0.3564727962

0.0831856486

0.3000685789

0.0852049994

0.1750679769

Conventional

Alaska

Tight

CBM

Shale

US Demand

Demand aeo2009

Report #:DOE/EIA-0383(2009) Early Release

Release date, early release: December 2008

Next release date full report: February 2009

Table 14. Oil and Gas Supply

2007-

20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302030

Crude Oil

Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price 1/

(2007 dollars per barrel)61.8065.7095.6853.0270.9880.2489.5793.68104.07107.45108.41107.97109.62109.50108.34109.02110.66110.64111.73112.56113.34116.34117.50119.03121.092.7%

Production (million barrels per day) 2/

United States Total5.105.074.955.385.615.595.685.705.715.725.795.936.126.236.466.626.786.997.087.227.237.217.317.357.381.6%

Lower 48 Onshore2.932.912.932.952.922.902.912.973.053.133.203.263.303.323.353.373.403.513.653.773.873.943.994.024.041.4%

Lower 48 Offshore1.431.441.341.702.012.092.192.172.122.092.112.152.232.252.392.462.542.672.642.672.642.602.682.732.772.9%

Alaska0.740.720.680.730.690.600.580.560.540.510.480.520.590.650.710.790.840.810.790.770.720.680.640.610.57-1.0%

Lower 48 End of Year Reserves 2/

(billion barrels)18.4318.6218.2018.4419.1419.3119.6019.8119.9720.2920.7321.1321.6221.7022.4522.6223.3623.7024.1524.3724.5724.8824.9725.3225.401.4%

Natural Gas

Prices (2007 dollars per million Btu)

Henry Hub Spot Price6.916.969.036.546.526.506.686.696.826.897.027.167.387.557.437.257.417.477.798.058.438.838.969.159.251.2%

Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price 1/6.486.227.785.585.765.755.905.916.026.096.216.326.526.676.576.416.556.606.887.117.447.807.928.088.171.2%

Prices (2007 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price 1/6.666.398.005.735.925.916.076.086.196.266.386.506.706.866.756.596.736.787.077.317.658.028.148.318.391.2%

Dry Production (trillion cubic feet) 3/50.6252.8756.1957.1655.6156.1856.9056.3655.7355.5155.8956.2956.9257.3358.6760.3461.1162.3563.1863.4763.7963.8864.2464.6464.70

United States Total18.4819.3020.5120.8620.3020.5020.7720.5720.3420.2620.4020.5520.7720.9221.4222.0222.3122.7623.0623.1723.2823.3223.4523.5923.620.9%

Lower 48 Onshore15.0015.9116.9617.2716.6816.7216.8616.6516.4916.4516.5316.5116.5516.4716.0915.6315.8915.7216.0416.1716.3716.6016.4716.6916.760.2%

Associated-Dissolved 4/ - Conventional1.321.391.401.411.411.411.401.401.401.411.401.401.391.381.361.351.341.351.361.371.361.361.351.341.32-0.2%

Non-Associated13.6914.5115.5615.8715.2715.3115.4615.2515.0915.0515.1215.1115.1615.0914.7314.2814.5514.3714.6814.8015.0115.2515.1215.3615.440.3%

Conventional5.065.365.154.954.684.614.564.424.274.144.023.893.763.593.393.173.072.872.792.682.592.512.372.292.21-3.8%

Unconventional8.629.1510.4110.9110.5810.7010.8910.8210.8210.9011.1011.2211.4011.5011.3411.1111.4911.5111.9012.1212.4212.7412.7513.0613.231.6%

Gas Shale1.071.171.632.172.302.432.522.552.572.622.692.762.842.912.962.973.113.123.293.423.563.733.793.984.135.7%

Coalbed Methane1.841.842.021.951.781.781.791.761.751.751.791.801.821.831.781.731.801.821.871.901.941.981.982.012.010.4%

Tight Gas5.716.156.766.786.506.506.596.526.506.536.626.666.746.766.606.416.596.576.746.816.927.036.987.087.090.6%

Lower 48 Offshore - Conventional3.052.973.183.223.253.453.583.593.523.483.543.703.894.114.184.444.465.095.075.044.954.755.024.944.892.2%

Associated-Dissolved 4/0.630.620.610.650.720.850.880.920.910.890.900.920.951.001.011.071.071.111.111.101.081.071.061.071.132.7%

Non-Associated2.422.352.572.562.542.602.702.672.612.582.642.792.943.113.173.373.393.983.963.943.873.683.953.873.762.1%

Alaska0.420.420.370.370.370.340.330.330.330.330.330.340.340.341.141.951.951.951.951.961.961.961.961.961.966.9%

Lower 48 End of Year Dry Reserves (tcf)200.84225.18228.79229.42229.93228.31226.41223.73220.82217.95215.65214.16213.45211.65212.37211.19212.28211.60210.91211.34209.74210.32209.68210.32211.90-0.3%

Supplemental Gas Supplies (tcf) 5/0.070.060.050.050.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.2%

Total Lower 48 Wells Drilled (thousands)49.4753.5153.3446.8244.6143.2044.8144.8644.6545.0945.6246.4747.1547.6648.0446.6347.9348.1248.8748.9649.5650.3451.1552.7453.840.0%

PPM Analysis

Production2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Conventional25.8526.6326.6626.2525.6125.9326.1625.8025.1824.7224.5524.6324.7624.8924.4724.5524.3025.4825.2424.9024.4023.6223.9323.4723.06

Gas Shale2.933.194.465.956.296.656.916.987.047.187.377.567.797.978.108.158.518.549.009.369.7710.2310.3810.9011.33

CBM5.045.045.535.364.894.864.894.814.784.804.904.934.985.024.884.734.924.985.125.195.315.415.435.515.51

Tight Gas15.6516.8418.5218.5817.8117.8118.0517.8717.8217.8918.1518.2618.4518.5118.0917.5718.0418.0118.4618.6618.9619.2519.1319.3919.41

Alaska1.151.161.021.021.010.920.890.900.910.910.920.920.930.933.145.345.345.355.355.365.365.375.375.385.38

US Total Supply (Bcf/d)50.6252.8756.1957.1655.6156.1856.9056.3655.7355.5155.8956.2956.9257.3358.6760.3461.1162.3563.1863.4763.7963.8864.2464.6464.70

check0.000.000.00-0.000.000.000.00-0.000.00-0.00-0.00-0.000.000.00-0.000.000.000.000.00-0.000.000.000.000.000.00

% of Production2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Conventional51%50%47%46%46%46%46%46%45%45%44%44%44%43%42%41%40%41%40%39%38%37%37%36%36%

Gas Shale6%6%8%10%11%12%12%12%13%13%13%13%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%15%15%16%16%17%18%

CBM10%10%10%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%9%9%

Tight Gas31%32%33%33%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%32%31%29%30%29%29%29%30%30%30%30%30%

Alaska2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%5%9%9%9%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%

US Total Supply (%)100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%

DRY NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION (BCF/D)NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION (%)

YearConventionalAlaskaCBMTightShaleTotal Prod.YearConventionalAlaskaCBMTightShaleTotal Prod.

EIA 2008199040116149199083%2%2%12%2%100%

EIA 2008199140116148199182%2%2%12%2%100%

EIA 2008199239117149199281%2%2%14%2%100%

EIA 2008199339127150199379%2%4%14%2%100%

EIA 2008199440128152199477%3%4%15%2%100%

EIA 2008199539138151199576%2%5%15%2%100%

EIA 2008199638139152199674%2%5%17%2%100%

EIA 20081997371310152199771%2%6%19%2%100%

EIA 20081998361310152199869%2%7%20%2%100%

EIA 20081999361410152199969%2%7%20%2%100%

EIA 20082000351411153200067%2%8%21%2%100%

EIA 20082001351412154200166%2%8%22%2%100%

EIA 20082002331412252200263%2%8%24%3%100%

EIA 20082003321413252200362%2%8%24%3%100%

EIA 20082004291514251200457%2%9%27%4%100%

EIA 20082005271515250816.3200554%3%10%30%4%100%

AEO 20092006261516351200651%2%10%31%6%100%

AEO 20092007271517353200750%2%10%32%6%100%

AEO 20092008271619456200847%2%10%33%8%100%

AEO 20092009261519657200946%2%9%33%10%100%

AEO 20092010261518656201046%2%9%32%11%100%

AEO 20092011261518756201146%2%9%32%12%100%

AEO 20092012261518757201246%2%9%32%12%100%

AEO 20092013261518756201346%2%9%32%12%100%

AEO 20092014251518756201445%2%9%32%13%100%

AEO 20092015251518756201545%2%9%32%13%100%

AEO 20092016251518756201644%2%9%32%13%100%

AEO 20092017251518856201744%2%9%32%13%100%

AEO 20092018251518857201844%2%9%32%14%100%

AEO 20092019251519857201943%2%9%32%14%100%

AEO 20092020243518859202042%5%8%31%14%100%

AEO 20092021255518860202141%9%8%29%14%100%

AEO 20092022245518961202240%9%8%30%14%100%

AEO 20092023255518962202341%9%8%29%14%100%

AEO 20092024255518963202440%8%8%29%14%100%

AEO 20092025255519963202539%8%8%29%15%100%

AEO 200920262455191064202638%8%8%30%15%100%

AEO 200920272455191064202737%8%8%30%16%100%

AEO 200920282455191064202837%8%8%30%16%100%

AEO 200920292356191165202936%8%9%30%17%100%

AEO 200920302356191165203036%8%9%30%18%100%

PPM AnalysisDemand (BCF/D)

199050

199150

199251

199352

199454

199554

199654

199755

199855

199955

200056

200157

200256

200356

200455

200553

200659

20076310.30816%19.26

20086423.05

2009633.7916.44%

201061

201162

201263

201362

201462

201562

201663

201763

201864

201964

202064

202165

202265

202366

202467

202567

202667

202767

202867

202967

2030672.0423%

1/ Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.

2/ Includes lease condensate.

3/ Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses.

4/ Gas which occurs in crude oil reserves either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved).

5/ Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural gas.

Tcf = Trillion cubic feet.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2006 and 2007 crude oil lower 48 average wellhead price: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0487(2007)

(Washington, DC, August 2008). 2006 and 2007 lower 48 onshore, lower 48 offshore, and Alaska crude oil production: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0340(2007)/1

(Washington, DC, July 2008). 2006 U.S. crude oil and natural gas reserves: EIA, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids

Reserves, DOE/EIA-0216(2006) (Washington, DC, December 2007). 2006 Alaska and total natural gas production, and supplemental gas supplies: EIA, Natural Gas Annual

2006, DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, October, 2007). 2006 natural gas lower 48 average wellhead price: Minerals Management Service and EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2006,

DOE/EIA-0131(2006) (Washington, DC, October, 2007). 2007 natural gas lower 48 average wellhead price, Alaska and total natural gas production, and supplemental gas supplies:

EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2008/04) (Washington, DC, April 2008). Other 2006 and 2007 values: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA,

AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2009.d112408b.

Updated Est BCF(~ Jul. 08)

Report #:DOE/EIA-0383(2009) Early Release

Release date, early release: December 2008

Next release date full report: February 2009

Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source

(quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

2007-

20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302030

Residential

Liquefied Petroleum Gases0.490.500.510.510.490.490.490.480.480.480.480.480.480.490.490.490.500.500.500.500.510.510.510.510.520.2%

Kerosene0.070.080.080.090.080.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.07-0.5%

Distillate Fuel Oil0.710.780.760.780.720.710.700.680.660.650.630.620.610.600.600.590.580.570.560.550.540.530.530.520.51-1.8%

Liquid Fuels Subtotal1.271.351.361.371.291.281.251.231.211.191.191.181.171.161.161.151.151.141.141.131.121.121.111.101.10-0.9%

Natural Gas4.494.865.065.104.924.944.964.974.995.015.045.045.065.075.105.105.125.135.145.125.115.105.105.075.060.2%

Coal0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01-0.8%

Renewable Energy 1/0.390.430.490.470.430.430.430.440.450.460.470.470.470.480.480.480.480.490.490.490.490.490.500.500.500.7%

Electricity4.614.754.744.724.804.824.864.814.834.854.904.945.005.075.115.155.215.275.345.395.455.515.585.635.690.8%

Delivered Energy10.7711.4011.6511.6711.4511.4711.5211.4611.4911.5311.6011.6411.7111.7811.8611.9011.9712.0312.1212.1412.1912.2312.3012.3112.360.4%

Electricity Related Losses10.0010.3610.2310.2910.4410.4410.4310.3110.3210.3510.4310.5010.6010.7110.8010.8410.9110.9911.0911.1611.2511.3511.4811.5611.640.5%

Total20.7721.7621.8821.9621.9021.9221.9521.7721.8121.8722.0322.1422.3122.5022.6622.7422.8823.0323.2123.3023.4323.5823.7823.8824.000.4%

Commercial

Liquefied Petroleum Gases0.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.3%

Motor Gasoline 2/0.050.050.050.040.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.4%

Kerosene0.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.011.4%


Residual Fuel Oil0.080.080.070.070.070.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.2%


Natural Gas2.923.103.213.213.153.173.183.203.233.253.273.293.313.323.343.373.403.423.443.453.463.473.483.513.530.6%

Coal0.070.070.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.06-0.0%


Electricity4.434.584.624.604.764.834.894.975.055.145.235.325.405.495.575.655.735.815.885.956.016.086.156.236.311.4%



Total17.7918.4918.5918.6319.0219.2319.3719.5819.8320.1120.4020.6820.9321.1921.4421.6821.9022.1122.2922.4722.6422.8323.0623.3123.531.1%

Industrial 4/

Liquefied Petroleum Gases2.332.352.302.082.022.002.062.062.031.961.911.881.831.801.781.761.751.751.741.721.701.691.681.671.66-1.5%

Motor Gasoline 2/0.360.360.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.340.340.340.340.340.340.340.350.350.350.36-0.1%


Residual Fuel Oil0.240.250.210.200.150.150.160.160.170.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.160.16-1.9%

Petrochemical Feedstocks1.421.301.101.011.011.051.121.191.221.201.181.171.151.141.131.121.111.111.111.101.081.071.061.061.05-0.9%

Other Petroleum 5/4.514.424.204.113.873.933.893.953.913.883.873.863.843.823.753.703.683.683.713.743.773.803.843.853.89-0.6%


Natural Gas6.686.826.886.716.616.786.976.996.966.936.916.886.866.796.816.846.866.866.916.916.926.926.946.967.010.1%

Natural-Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00- -

Lease and Plant Fuel 6/1.161.201.281.301.271.281.281.271.261.251.261.271.281.291.331.391.401.421.441.441.451.451.451.461.470.9%

Natural Gas Subtotal7.838.028.168.017.888.058.268.268.228.188.168.158.158.098.148.228.268.298.358.358.378.378.398.428.470.2%

Metallurgical Coal0.600.600.570.590.550.560.570.560.550.530.530.520.520.510.490.490.490.480.490.480.480.480.480.480.48-1.0%

Other Industrial Coal1.251.211.241.281.241.221.211.191.161.161.161.161.161.161.151.151.151.151.161.161.161.161.161.161.16-0.2%

Coal-to-Liquids Heat and Power0.000.000.000.000.000.000.030.050.110.130.150.170.190.210.240.270.300.330.360.400.440.470.510.550.5832.7%

Net Coal Coke Imports0.060.030.050.060.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01-3.6%

Coal Subtotal1.921.831.871.941.811.791.821.821.831.831.841.861.871.881.891.911.941.982.012.052.082.122.152.192.230.9%

Biofuels Heat and Coproducts0.360.430.890.660.750.820.820.810.880.950.991.011.071.091.221.391.611.611.581.631.641.651.651.641.666.0%


Electricity3.453.433.463.363.353.403.493.523.503.493.503.513.533.513.483.483.483.503.523.543.563.583.603.643.670.3%



Total32.8732.8032.6231.7131.1131.6032.2132.4332.3232.2032.2032.2132.2432.0832.0732.2232.4832.5832.7532.9233.0633.2133.3933.6133.870.1%

Transportation


E85 8/0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.160.340.440.490.620.590.841.071.401.481.601.741.871.992.082.162.2237.2%

Motor Gasoline 2/17.2217.2916.8116.6816.9717.2017.1116.9916.6716.3316.1816.0815.8915.8915.6115.3515.0014.9114.8014.6814.5814.5114.4714.3514.37-0.8%

Jet Fuel 9/3.223.233.153.153.012.983.033.073.113.153.193.233.313.363.423.473.533.603.673.743.823.893.974.044.121.1%

Distillate Fuel Oil 10/6.416.486.086.006.156.426.666.816.896.967.077.167.267.327.357.437.557.697.858.018.208.408.628.849.091.5%

Residual Fuel Oil0.910.950.800.760.860.950.960.960.960.960.970.970.970.970.970.980.980.980.990.990.990.991.001.001.000.2%

Liquid Hydrogen0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0044.5%

Other Petroleum 11/0.180.170.170.170.170.170.170.170.170.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.180.3%

Liquid Fuels Subtotal27.9628.1427.0426.7927.1727.7527.9528.0227.9727.9328.0328.1228.2428.3228.3828.4928.6628.8629.1029.3629.6629.9830.3330.6031.000.4%

Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas0.600.640.650.660.640.650.660.650.650.650.650.660.660.650.690.720.720.720.730.730.730.730.720.720.720.5%

Compressed Natural Gas0.020.020.030.030.030.030.040.050.050.050.060.060.060.070.070.070.070.070.080.080.080.080.080.080.095.8%

Electricity0.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.040.040.040.040.040.040.050.050.053.6%



Total28.6528.8727.7927.5427.9228.5028.7228.8028.7528.7228.8228.9229.0629.1429.2329.3929.5629.7630.0230.3030.6030.9331.2731.5531.950.4%

Delivered Energy Consumption, All Sectors


E85 8/0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.160.340.440.490.620.590.841.071.401.481.601.741.871.992.082.162.2237.2%

Motor Gasoline 2/17.6217.7017.2117.0817.3617.6017.5217.3917.0616.7216.5816.4716.2816.2816.0015.7315.3915.3015.1915.0714.9814.9014.8714.7514.77-0.8%

Jet Fuel 9/3.223.233.153.153.012.983.033.073.113.153.193.233.313.363.423.473.533.603.673.743.823.893.974.044.121.1%

Kerosene0.120.110.110.120.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10-0.2%

Distillate Fuel Oil8.798.948.438.358.408.708.939.069.119.169.269.339.429.479.479.549.649.779.9310.1010.2810.4910.7010.9211.171.0%



Liquid Hydrogen0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0044.5%

Other Petroleum 12/4.664.574.354.254.024.084.044.104.074.044.024.024.003.983.913.863.843.843.883.913.943.974.004.024.06-0.5%


Natural Gas14.1114.7915.1715.0414.7114.9315.1615.2115.2215.2415.2715.2815.2915.2515.3215.3915.4515.4915.5615.5615.5715.5715.6015.6215.690.3%



Pipeline Natural Gas0.600.640.650.660.640.650.660.650.650.650.650.660.660.650.690.720.720.720.730.730.730.730.720.720.720.5%



Other Coal1.331.281.321.351.311.291.291.271.241.241.231.231.231.231.221.221.221.231.231.231.231.231.231.231.23-0.2%



Coal Subtotal1.991.911.942.011.881.871.901.901.911.911.921.931.951.961.971.992.022.052.092.122.152.192.232.272.300.8%



Electricity12.5212.7912.8412.7112.9313.0713.2613.3213.4013.5113.6513.8013.9614.1014.2014.3214.4614.6214.7814.9215.0715.2215.3915.5515.720.9%



Total100.08101.92100.8899.8499.95101.25102.25102.58102.70102.91103.45103.96104.54104.91105.41106.03106.82107.49108.27108.99109.74110.55111.50112.34113.350.5%

Electric Power 14/




Natural Gas6.397.067.006.796.466.306.386.276.146.206.356.506.656.706.696.867.017.307.527.587.607.537.437.317.200.1%

Steam Coal20.4620.8420.6620.4421.0321.3221.4921.5521.5721.6921.7521.8521.9422.0222.0121.9522.0522.0522.1222.2822.4922.8123.1523.5824.100.6%

Nuclear Power8.218.418.348.428.458.478.508.538.638.688.698.718.748.859.009.049.059.059.059.059.099.179.329.489.440.5%


Electricity Imports0.060.110.120.090.080.090.070.080.080.060.060.060.070.070.070.070.060.040.050.060.080.100.110.080.10-0.2%

Total 16/39.6740.6740.5640.4241.0641.3841.7541.8642.0342.3042.7343.1343.5543.9044.1844.4244.7345.0945.4645.7946.1346.5347.0247.4847.900.7%

Total Energy Consumption


E85 8/0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.160.340.440.490.620.590.841.071.401.481.601.741.871.992.082.162.2237.2%

Motor Gasoline 2/17.6217.7017.2117.0817.3617.6017.5217.3917.0616.7216.5816.4716.2816.2816.0015.7315.3915.3015.1915.0714.9814.9014.8714.7514.77-0.8%

Jet Fuel 9/3.223.233.153.153.012.983.033.073.113.153.193.233.313.363.423.473.533.603.673.743.823.893.974.044.121.1%

Kerosene0.120.110.110.120.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10-0.2%




Liquid Hydrogen0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0044.5%

Other Petroleum 12/4.664.574.354.254.024.084.044.104.074.044.024.024.003.983.913.863.843.843.883.913.943.974.004.024.06-0.5%


Natural Gas20.5021.8622.1721.8321.1821.2321.5421.4821.3721.4421.6321.7721.9421.9522.0122.2422.4522.7923.0823.1423.1723.1023.0322.9422.900.2%



Pipeline Natural Gas0.600.640.650.660.640.650.660.650.650.650.650.660.660.650.690.720.720.720.730.730.730.730.720.720.720.5%



Other Coal21.7922.1221.9721.7922.3522.6122.7822.8222.8122.9222.9823.0823.1723.2523.2423.1723.2823.2723.3523.5123.7224.0424.3824.8125.330.6%



Coal Subtotal22.4622.7422.6022.4422.9123.1923.3923.4523.4823.5923.6623.7823.8823.9823.9823.9324.0724.1024.2124.4024.6425.0025.3825.8526.410.7%

Nuclear Power8.218.418.348.428.458.478.508.538.638.688.698.718.748.859.009.049.059.059.059.059.099.179.329.489.440.5%



Electricity Imports0.060.110.120.090.080.090.070.080.080.060.060.060.070.070.070.070.060.040.050.060.080.100.110.080.10-0.2%

Total100.08101.92100.8899.8499.95101.25102.25102.58102.70102.91103.45103.96104.54104.91105.41106.03106.82107.49108.27108.99109.74110.55111.50112.34113.350.5%

Natural Gas Subtotal ex. Pipeline21.6623.0623.4523.1322.4522.5022.8222.7522.6222.6922.8823.0423.2223.2423.3423.6323.8524.2124.5224.5824.6224.5524.4824.4024.36

Energy Use & Related Statistics

Delivered Energy Use72.9374.0473.1672.1471.8272.9573.7674.0574.0874.1174.3874.6374.9575.1075.4375.9376.5577.0177.5978.1278.6879.2479.8780.4081.160.4%

Total Energy Use100.08101.92100.8899.8499.95101.25102.25102.58102.70102.91103.45103.96104.54104.91105.41106.03106.82107.49108.27108.99109.74110.55111.50112.34113.350.5%

Ethanol Consumed in Motor Gasoline and E850.470.570.760.921.091.221.211.211.291.391.441.471.541.521.651.791.982.032.102.192.272.352.412.462.506.6%

Population (millions)299.57302.41305.37308.36311.37314.38317.41320.48323.58326.70329.84333.00336.17339.38342.61345.86349.11352.36355.62358.87362.13365.38368.63371.87375.120.9%

US GDP (billion 2000 dollars)112951152411677115241179312216126581303513381137241406814425148231519415511158661626316675171181758418065185491904519561201122.5%

Carbon Dioxide Emissions (million metric tons)5906.85990.85884.15820.25819.15880.15922.75928.55906.05913.25933.65956.55979.75991.05992.95996.96019.26051.76095.76129.96173.56221.06275.36332.56410.20.3%

1/ Includes wood used for residential heating. See Table 4 and/or Table 17 for estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, solar thermal

hot water heating, and solar photovoltaic electricity generation.

2/ Includes ethanol (blends of 10 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline.

3/ Excludes ethanol. Includes commercial sector consumption of wood and wood waste, landfill gas, municipal solid waste, and other biomass for combined heat and power. See

Table 5 and/or Table 17 for estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for solar thermal hot water heating and solar photovoltaic electricity generation.

4/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.

5/ Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products.

6/ Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery.

7/ Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, and other biomass sources. Excludes ethanol blends (10 percent or

less) in motor gasoline.

8/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast.

9/ Includes only kerosene type.

10/ Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use.

11/ Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants.

12/ Includes unfinished oils, natural gasoline, motor gasoline blending components, aviation gasoline, lubricants, still gas, asphalt, road oil, petroleum coke, and miscellaneous

petroleum products.

13/ Includes electricity generated for sale to the grid and for own use from renewable sources, and non-electric energy from renewable sources. Excludes ethanol and nonmarketed

renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, buildings photovoltaic systems, and solar thermal hot water heaters.

14/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.

Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators.

15/ Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, other biomass, petroleum coke, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal

sources. Excludes net electricity imports.

16/ Includes non-biogenic municipal waste not included above.

17/ Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources. Includes

petroleum coke used in the electric power sector. Includes ethanol component of E85; excludes ethanol blends (10 percent or less) in motor gasoline. Excludes net electricity imports,

and nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, buildings photovoltaic systems, and solar thermal hot water heaters.

Btu = British thermal unit.

- - = Not applicable.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

Consumption values of 0.00 are values that round to 0.00, because they are less than 0.005.

Sources: 2006 and 2007 consumption based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2006

and 2007 population and gross domestic product: IHS Global Insight, Global Insight Industry and Employment models, November 2008. 2006 and 2007 carbon dioxide emissions:

EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007, DOE/EIA-0573(2007) (Washington, DC, December 2008). Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling

System run aeo2009.d112408b.

quadrillion

1,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000

20,500,000,000,000,00020,500,000,000,000

56.1643835616

PPM AnalysisDemand

200621.6659.3

200723.0663.2

200823.4564.2

200923.1363.4

201022.4561.5

201122.5061.6

201222.8262.5

201322.7562.3

201422.6262.0

201522.6962.2

201622.8862.7

201723.0463.1

201823.2263.6

201923.2463.7

202023.3464.0

202123.6364.7

202223.8565.4

202324.2166.3

202424.5267.2

202524.5867.3

202624.6267.4

202724.5567.3

202824.4867.1

202924.4066.8

203024.3666.7

Merged Data for Charts

na = nonassociated with oil wells

DRY NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION (BCF)ad = associated-dissolved with oil wells

NA CONVAD CONVTIGHTDEVONIANCOALBEDNAAD

YEARONSHOREONSHORESANDSSHALEMETHANEOFFSHOREOFFSHOREALASKA (bcf)Alaska (bcf/d)Total (bcf/d)

199073722052210626729746946393811.048.8

199172962088215929236844576284091.148.5

199273072145241729032043525984121.148.9

199372631881251229965044206723981.149.6

199472111848286030868146667235241.451.6

199569791804281831492145637664351.251.0

199666341760320830997347467824421.251.7

1997624917013505342117046318794271.251.8

1998597017983772347126445179284271.252.1

19995918175636903521331419311674251.251.6

20005980177239574291449411510604201.152.6

20015924162542864801538418211464351.253.7

2002561915414463551157437519994291.251.9

2003560814884619587158238129464561.352.3

2004503714005091688171833438744391.250.9

2005500513465381768174226926814591.349.5816.3

2006514214205643103517972430619421

2007511714135859105018112406565441

2008508614065956111118292382601412

2009499414086051117318022358606416

2010481114116072121517792334729418

2011461714096087126817632311851385

2012444914056128133417772288871376

2013427914036133139217722265894378

2014410814026136144717752242929379

2015396113986163150117892220953381

2016386513906205156718042198989383

2017376813806185162417982176997385

2018368313676159168817952154987387

2019360513516115173517912132984389

2020347113346030175917192111966389Not including Alaska pipeline

NONASSOCIATED, LOWER-48, DRY NATURAL GAS RESERVES (BCF)

CONVTIGHTDEVONIANCOALBED

YEARONSHORESANDSSHALEMETHANEOFFSHORE

199071053278402470409527651

199171170280722583500628493

199268716285782742627127561

199368336299232725536625768

199463215305682753824925593

199564258315892866678626078

199662184326142901864926239

1997582263592230391066326133

1998566123662835901167525008

1999565093615636551230923529

2000525334183848021286122947

2001525984848458581585023743

2002505135524468101798722083

2003531575714673051850420444

2004515196279980091874418561

2005524146862588211839115828

20065591873271117481989214728

20075565377750138772013715189

20085506779763148702027915145

20095505682422158652059015626

20105501285927168922105417387

20115409488329178022130918818

20125281490279186692152919686

20135146891647194792173621150

20145002392267202322181822084

20154848092469208492187822878

20164699792295213782187624124

20174573091792218842178424227

20184466291294224702172324477

20194369090609229492164423947Tcf

20204285789787234402155723849Conv55 to 45

20214184188649238832140623183Tight80 to 919066%

20224071987324242172120523056Shale15 to 222216%

20233993185976245112101322653CBM15 to 242418%

20243928184580248352081221358136

20253883283129251092056820763

20263851481577254232040320108

20273836480425258112043520502

20283822879315262642047819862

20293824878498267352048118157

20303830777552271232040017613

Merged Data for Charts

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

CONV

TIGHT

SHALE

METHANE

Gas Resources (bcf)

US EIA

DRY NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION (BCF/D)NAG/NAGP

(incl. offshore & associated gas in conventional)July '08

TotalImpliedShaleTotalUS natural gas production(History: EIA, forecast: BP NAG/NAGP)

YEARConventionalCBMTightShale (EIA)LNG importCanada importDemandUpsideShale

EIA199041.50.85.80.70.01.450

EIA199140.81.05.90.80.01.750

EIA199240.60.96.60.8-0.02.051

EIA199340.11.86.90.80.02.252

EIA199441.01.97.80.8-0.02.554

EIA199539.92.57.70.9-0.02.854

EIA199639.42.78.80.8-0.02.854

EIA199738.03.29.60.90.02.855

EIA199837.43.510.31.00.03.055

EIA199936.93.610.11.00.13.355

EIA200036.64.010.81.20.23.556

EIA200136.54.211.71.30.23.657

EIA200233.84.312.21.50.23.656

EIA200333.74.312.71.60.43.256

EIA200430.44.713.91.90.63.255

EIA200527.94.814.72.10.63.3532.1

EIA200627.54.915.52.80.53.1542.8

BP NAG/NAGP200727.25.016.12.958NAGP demand0.63.5act

BP NAG/NAGP200827.15.016.33.059NAGP demand1.74.7fcst

BP NAG/NAGP200926.84.916.63.260NAGP demand3.26.4

BP NAG/NAGP201026.64.916.63.361NAGP demand4.27.5Shale upside

BP NAG/NAGP201126.24.816.73.562NAGP demand5.28.7Shale (EIA)

BP NAG/NAGP201225.74.916.83.762NAGP demand6.19.8CBM

BP NAG/NAGP201325.34.916.83.8631% growth similar to EIA6.510.3


BP NAG/NAGP201524.44.916.94.1641% growth similar to EIA6.911.0Tight




BP NAG/NAGP201923.24.916.84.8661% growth similar to EIA7.011.8Conventional


old shale view

% by typeUpdated

ConventionalCBMTightShale

199085%2%12%2%

199184%2%12%2%

199283%2%14%2%

199381%4%14%2%

199480%4%15%2%

199578%5%15%2%

199676%5%17%2%

199773%6%19%2%

199872%7%20%2%

199971%7%20%2%

200070%8%21%2%

200168%8%22%2%

200265%8%24%3%

200364%8%24%3%

200460%9%27%4%

200556%10%30%4%

200654%10%30%6%

200753%10%31%7%

200851%9%31%9%

200949%9%30%12%

201048%9%30%13%

201146%9%30%15%

201245%9%29%17%

201344%8%29%18%

201443%9%29%19%

201543%9%30%19%

201642%9%30%20%

201742%9%30%20%

201841%9%30%20%

201941%9%30%21%

202041%8%30%21%

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00000

00000

00000

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00000

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00000

00000

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00000

00000

00000

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00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Conventional

Tight

Shale (EIA)

CBM

Shale

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

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Demand

Supply

Conventional

Tight

Shale (EIA)

CBM

Upside

Vehicle pathways (US$)

The lowest cost route to reduce light vehicle carbon emissions is based on more efficient gasoline engines...

Average medium sized car

BP Source

(USD)

10,000

20,000

Biofuels are compatible with liquid fuelled vehicle efficiency improvements and can further reduce CO2 emissions...

BP Source

(USD)

10,000

20,000

New gas-fired power capacity is lower carbon, more efficient, cheaper and quicker to build than coal (with and without CCS)

Technology Key:

SCGT =Single CycleGas Turbine

CCGT =Combined CycleGas Turbine

CCS =Carbon Ccapture & Storage

LCOE =levelised cost of electricity

HHV = Higher Heating Value efficiency measure

Overnight Capex = all capital expenditure for build & installation upto opening

Technology advances have transformed the secure US energy pool with gas from shale

Potential gas resources (TCF)

Production (1990-2020)

Source: 2009 Report of the Potential Gas Committee Potential Resources does not include Proved Reserves * Includes Conventional, Alaska and Tight Gas

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

Chart2

40.43191780821.04501369865.76950684930.81438356160.7327671233

39.64158904111.12158904115.91460273971.00835616440.8010136986

39.45679452051.12764383566.62178082190.87569863010.7944931507

39.00232876711.09065753426.88290410961.78197260270.818739726

39.58180821921.43687671237.8361095891.86709589040.8425753425

38.66219178081.19041095897.71939726032.52254794520.8606849315

38.1407397261.2128.78972602742.66594520550.8465479452

36.87512328771.1692602749.60153424663.20545205480.9357808219

36.20186301371.168575342510.33427397263.46309589040.9515068493

35.71019178081.163150684910.10958904113.64654794520.9656712329

35.41832876711.149780821910.83997260273.96906849321.176109589

35.28024657531.192575342511.7426301374.21378082191.314109589

32.63315068491.174246575312.22682191784.31230136991.5104109589

32.47682191781.250520547912.65465753424.33427397261.6085205479

29.19238356161.202356164413.94717808224.70717808221.8848219178

26.63909589041.258438356214.7433698634.77356164382.1039726027

25.84928388461.150920619715.6548108145.03557218262.9281031596

26.63466342511.155711363416.84058725025.04397006883.1936119681

26.66079573441.017889911218.51681356565.53144363514.4591038194

26.24907950831.015621015518.58494902315.3560959155.9540082331

25.60822081891.011285716517.81074576184.88794176556.2923653485

25.93115878430.918948568717.81159361754.86306850226.6531468744

26.16221708790.89287145518.04626020674.89416840966.9074624205

25.80287456510.899699861117.86862987364.80873094856.9777861033

25.18336740260.907276754517.81885199354.78147513257.0418253337

24.72180862950.91253625217.89371934664.80444496637.1768806405

24.54982065170.916876286718.14507654274.90109463267.3724106567

24.62935186410.921337326918.25738932994.92742616847.5590910977

24.75992947410.926393352118.45253069114.98405645977.7933226546

24.89113023840.931823090318.51407795745.01866503947.9723887248

24.46904835643.135594603118.0922508244.88169683178.095984263

24.54665752315.339255071717.56932245544.73186871788.1499668017

24.30177845375.344228221918.0429497814.91783129038.5078664022

25.47910768695.348938785218.00666312654.979460868.5387099279

25.2382885925.353463512618.46421124185.12343824739.001681576

24.89721121855.3579219418.6563713915.19201559569.3634233083

24.3973620955.362711540618.95961500195.30657180379.7656674581

23.62165842975.367658889519.24857440065.412485828110.2328391924

23.92683029175.372571945219.13019598355.426660955810.3829540618

23.47325658155.377279895619.38707534585.506556001410.8984104575

23.06351629025.38204761419.41420672695.512698055911.3267637279

Conventional

Alaska

Tight

CBM

Shale

Charts

Charts

40.43191780821.04501369860.81438356165.76950684930.7327671233

39.64158904111.12158904111.00835616445.91460273970.8010136986

39.45679452051.12764383560.87569863016.62178082190.7944931507

39.00232876711.09065753421.78197260276.88290410960.818739726

39.58180821921.43687671231.86709589047.8361095890.8425753425

38.66219178081.19041095892.52254794527.71939726030.8606849315

38.1407397261.2122.66594520558.78972602740.8465479452

36.87512328771.1692602743.20545205489.60153424660.9357808219

36.20186301371.16857534253.463095890410.33427397260.9515068493

35.71019178081.16315068493.646547945210.10958904110.9656712329

35.41832876711.14978082193.969068493210.83997260271.176109589

35.28024657531.19257534254.213780821911.7426301371.314109589

32.63315068491.17424657534.312301369912.22682191781.5104109589

32.47682191781.25052054794.334273972612.65465753421.6085205479

29.19238356161.20235616444.707178082213.94717808221.8848219178

26.63909589041.25843835624.773561643814.7433698632.1039726027

25.84928388461.15092061975.035572182615.6548108142.9281031596

26.63466342511.15571136345.043970068816.84058725023.1936119681

26.66079573441.01788991125.531443635118.51681356564.4591038194

26.24907950831.01562101555.35609591518.58494902315.9540082331

25.60822081891.01128571654.887941765517.81074576186.2923653485

25.93115878430.91894856874.863068502217.81159361756.6531468744

26.16221708790.8928714554.894168409618.04626020676.9074624205

25.80287456510.89969986114.808730948517.86862987366.9777861033

25.18336740260.90727675454.781475132517.81885199357.0418253337

24.72180862950.9125362524.804444966317.89371934667.1768806405

24.54982065170.91687628674.901094632618.14507654277.3724106567

24.629351

Strategic Directions in Socio-economic Issues

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