STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com STR Global Client Breakfast Briefing Grand Connaught Rooms 29 th October 2013 STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global

description

Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director; Philip Wooller, Area Director Middle East and Africa and Jesper Palmqvist, Area Director Asia Pacific share their insights on performance in the respective regions.

Transcript of STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

Page 1: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com

STR Global

Client Breakfast Briefing

Grand Connaught Rooms

29th October 2013

STR Global Client Event @2013 STR Global

Page 2: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Our participants

As of September 2013

+30,000 hotels

+3.9 m rooms

+800 hotels

+160,000 rooms

+600 hotels

+100,000 rooms

+47,000 hotels

+6.4m rooms

+8,000 hotels

+1,1 m rooms

+5,000 hotels

+1 m rooms

+400 hotels

+120,000 rooms

Page 3: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Global performance

RevPAR YTD September 2013 (USD)

- 4.1%

+ 5.4%

+5.1%

+ 0.6%€

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Europe +4.4%

+0.6% YTD 13

YE 12

RevPAR % Chg €

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Europe Room Supply and Demand %Chg

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Supply % Chg Demand % Chg

12 months moving average YE 2005 to September 2013

Nov ‘10

6.8%

Jul ‘09

-7.3%

Sep‘13

2.8%

Jun’12

2.1%

Page 6: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Europe Occ and ADR %Chg

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Occ % Chg ADR % Chg

12 month moving average YE 2005 to September 2013

Sep ‘13

1.8%

May ‘11

5.7% Jan ‘11

5.4%

Jul ‘09

-8.4% Nov ‘09

-11.5%

Sep ‘13

-0.4%

Page 7: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Europe actual performance

0 €

20 €

40 €

60 €

80 €

100 €

120 €

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Supply Demand RevPAR

12 month moving average YE 2005 to September 2013

Page 8: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Europe Classes Occ and ADR

0 €

50 €

100 €

150 €

200 €

250 €

300 €

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy

Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13

+1.8 +2.3 +1.8 +1.1 +3.9

-2.7 -2.0 -0.7

-1.9

-0.3

YTD September 2012 & 2013

Page 9: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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European Countries RevPAR % Chg

YTD September 2013 (local currency)

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

East North South West

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• -18.0 % Warsaw

• - 6.8% Madrid

• - 6.6% Tel Aviv

• - 6.2% Vienna

• - 5.7% Helsinki

Top and Bottom 5 Markets, YTD September 2013 (local currency)

Europe Markets RevPAR % Chg

• + 7.7 % Edinburgh

• + 9.7% Budapest

• + 10.3% Dublin

• + 11.7% Copenhagen

• + 16.6% Vilnius

Page 11: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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P&L 2012 GOPPAR % Chg

15.8

18.6

23.6

26.3

26.8

23.8

22.3

17.2

16.1

13.8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

POLAND

CZECH REPUBLIC

RUSSIA

HUNGARY

IRELAND

MOSCOW

SAINT PETERSBURG

PRAGUE

AMSTERDAM

LONDON

EUR

CZK

RUB

RUB

EUR

HUF

RUB

CZK

PLN

Top 5 Countries and Markets in Europe (Local Currency)

GBP

Page 12: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Eurozone Demand & GDP

Quarterly 2004 – 2015F (GDP Source: Oxford Economics)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f

Demand GDP

Page 13: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Europe Pipeline Top 5 Countries

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Georgia

Tajikistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Pipeline as a % of existing supply

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United Kingdom +1.5%

+2.5% YTD 13

YE 12

RevPAR % Chg £

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RevPAR % Chg

Sept YTD GBP

1.4

%

SEEngland

9.6

%

Scotland

5.4

%

NWEngland

5.6

%

NIreland

0.9

%

NEEngland

-1.7

%

London6

.6%

E Midlands

6.8

%

Yorkshire

5.0

%

WMidlands

4.4

%

Wales

5.4

%

SWEngland

-1.3

%

EEngland

Page 16: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Occ ADR

Key Cities – UK Occ and ADR % Chg

YTD September 2013 GBP

Page 17: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Regional UK -0.6%

+4.4% YTD 13

YE 12

RevPAR % Chg £

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Regional UK Classes Supply and Demand % Chg

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy

Supply Demand

YTD September 2013

Page 19: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Regional UK Classes

£0.0

£50.0

£100.0

£150.0

£200.0

£250.0

£300.0

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy

Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13

YTD September 2012 & 2013 Occ and ADR in GBP

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London +2.2%

-1.7% YTD 13

YE 12

RevPAR % Chg £

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£133

£110

82.3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

£0

£20

£40

£60

£80

£100

£120

£140

£160

2011

ADR RevPAR Occ

YTD September 2011 vs YTD September 2013

London Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR

£136

£112

82.3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

£0

£20

£40

£60

£80

£100

£120

£140

£160

2013

ADR RevPAR Occ

‘13YTD

Supply

growth

4%

Page 22: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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London Classes Supply and Demand % Chg

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy

Supply Demand

YTD September 2013

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London Classes Occ and ADR

£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

£300

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy

Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13

YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 GBP

Page 24: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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MEA +5.3%

+5.1% YTD 13

YE 12

RevPAR % Chg $

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MEA Countries REvPAR % Chg

YTD September 2013 (local currency)

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Kenya Egypt Mauritius SouthAfrica

Lebanon Jordan SaudiArabia

Qatar UnitedArab

Emirates

Kuwait Bahrain Oman

Africa Middle East

Page 26: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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MEA Overview RevPAR % Chg

YTD September 2013 (local currency)

Beirut -26.9%

Makkah -0.6%

Medina -0.3%

Riyadh 0.4%

Jeddah 9.0%

Dubai +11.0%

Cape Town +16.7%

Cairo -6.3%

Nairobi -4.9%

Doha +9.1%

Sandton & Sur. +10.4%

Manama +10.5%

Abu Dhabi 11.0%

Muscat +15.9%

Page 27: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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UAE +4.1%

+10.5%

RevPAR % Chg AED

YE 12

YTD 13

Page 28: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Abu Dhabi vs Dubai Occ and ADR % chg

YTD 19th October 2013 (daily data) AED

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

AbuDhabi

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale UpperMidscale

Mid &Eco

Dubai Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale UpperMidscale

Mid &Eco

Occ ADR

Dubai Abu Dhabi

Page 29: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Occupancy ADR

Dubai Selected Submarkets Occ and ADR % Chg

YTD 19th October 2013 (daily data) AED

Page 30: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Dubai Selected Submarkets Occ and ADR

AED 50

AED 250

AED 450

AED 650

AED 850

AED 1,050

AED 1,250

AED 1,450

AED 1,650

AED 1,850

AED 2,050

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Occupancy ADR $

YTD 19th October 2013 (daily data) AED

Page 31: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Riyadh

Jeddah

Lagos

Makkah

Al Khobar

Doha

Muscat

Manama

Nigeria

Abu Dhabi

Selected Cities Pipeline MEA

Supply Increase % of existing September 2013

Page 32: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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MEA Pipeline Top 5 Countries

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%

Iraq

Mauritania

Libya

Angola

Rwanda

Pipeline as a % of existing supply

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APAC -0.4%

-4.1% YTD 13

YE 12

RevPAR % Chg $

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Asia Pacific RevPAR growth

YTD September 2013 (local currency)

India -3.1

Singapore -1.3

Malaysia +6.2

Indonesia +7.6

Vietnam +8.7

Thailand +15.9

Maldives +20.0

South Korea -8.1

China -5.7

Hong Kong -2.1

Philippines +0.0

Australia +2.1

Taiwan +6.9

Japan +11.5

Page 35: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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APAC Markets RevPAR growth

YTD September 2013 (local currency)

Seoul -13.2%

Delhi-NCR -11.1%

Bali +0.6%

Kuala Lumpur 1.0%

Ho Chi Minh City +1.4%

Osaka +11.2%

Jakarta +11.4%

Beijing -7.4%

Manila -3.1%

Taipei + 4.3%

Sydney + 4.8%

Phuket + 5.4%

Tokyo +12.3%

Bangkok +15.6%

Page 36: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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58%

16%

8%

Malaysia 4%

Thailand 3%

Philippines 3%

Vietnam 2%

Australia 2%

Japan 2%

Singapore 1%

South Korea 1%

18%

Pipeline | Asia Pacific

By country – Q3 2013

Page 37: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Pipeline | Asia Pacific – Size of properties

By country – Q3 2013

100

150

200

250

300

350

Page 38: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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APAC Pipeline Top 5 Countries

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

Bangladesh

Mongolia

Myanmar

Sri Lanka

Philippines

Pipeline as a % of existing supply

Page 39: STR Global Breakfast Briefing October 2013

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Forecast

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Forecast 2014

Occupancy and ADR % Chg (local currency)

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Forecast : 3 key Markets RevPAR % Chg

+3.4% +5.6% +4.4%

2014 Year-end as of Aug 2013 edition (local currency)

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Thank you

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