Storm Surge Products John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Morehead City/Newport NC...
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Transcript of Storm Surge Products John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Morehead City/Newport NC...
![Page 1: Storm Surge Products John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Morehead City/Newport NC Acknowledgements: Jamie Rhome and Rick Knabb (NHC), Mark.](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022032309/56649d205503460f949f472e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Storm Surge Products
John Cole
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NWS Morehead City/Newport NC
Acknowledgements: Jamie Rhome and Rick Knabb (NHC), Mark Willis (WFO MHX),
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Outline
• SLOSH (MOM’s and MEOW’s)• Operational SLOSH
(Deterministic Runs)• Probability Surge (P Surge)• Surge Product Timeline
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The Storm Surge Threat
• An abnormal rise in water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tide
• A temporary rise in sea level that, in effect, moves the coastline inland
• Caused primarily by force of wind blowing across water surface
• Contribution by low pressure within center of storm is minimal• Influenced greatly by track, RMW, size, coastline
characteristics.
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MEOW’s and MOM’s• Maximum Envelope of Water• Composite of maximum storm
surge heights at each grid cell using hypothetical hurricanes run with the same:
– Category– Forward Speed– Landfall Direction– Initial Tide Levels
• Composite achieved by reviewing parallel tracks that make landfall at different locations
• Over 80 MEOWs have been generated for some basins
• Maximum of MEOWs• Composite of the maximum
storm surge height for all hurricanes of a given category
• Disregards forward speed, landfall direction, landfall location, etc.
• Only 5 MOMs per basin, i.e. one per storm category
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CAT 3 MEOW
Surge Inundation
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SLOSH Tides
![Page 8: Storm Surge Products John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Morehead City/Newport NC Acknowledgements: Jamie Rhome and Rick Knabb (NHC), Mark.](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022032309/56649d205503460f949f472e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Maximum Storm Surge Potential for Cat 3 Storm (worst case scenario of all motions, sizes, etc)
Little Washington: We have a Hurricane Problem.
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Deterministic Runs and SLOSH
• SLOSH will be run approximately 36 hours prior to arrival of TS winds– Why only 36 hours?
• NHC track/intensity errors• Run every 6 hours coinciding with full advisory package
– Animated gifs– Still images of Envelope of High Water (EOHW)– Rexfiles– Shapefiles (GIS)
• Output placed on FTP site:– ftp.nhc.noaa.gov– www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp
• New SLOSH display program that incorporates GIS layer capabilities, the ability to show inundation (which will also be mentioned in the advisories), more control over fonts/colors, and better briefing capabilities.
![Page 10: Storm Surge Products John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Morehead City/Newport NC Acknowledgements: Jamie Rhome and Rick Knabb (NHC), Mark.](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022032309/56649d205503460f949f472e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Deterministic SLOSH Run
Rmax=25 mi(forecast)
Surge Based on NHC - 12 hr. Advisory
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Actual Hurricane Track 30 mi. E of 12 hr. Advisory Forecast Track
TRACK FORECAST
ACTUAL TRACK
133 mph, 933 mb.
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Rmax=40 mi
Surge Based on NHC Storm Best Track
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Probabilistic Storm Surge takes this error into account
• Use an ensemble of SLOSH runs to create probabilistic storm surge (p-surge)
• Atlas of pre-computed surge maps based on:– Different directions of motion– Different landfall locations– Different intensities– Different storm sizes– Different forward speeds
• Based on statistics of NHC error including: along track error (timing), cross track (location), intensity, and Rmax error.
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PSURGE for IVAN
• Similar probabilities near Mobile Bay as around Pensacola
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• Beginning when the NHC issues a hurricane watch or warning for the continental US
• Available approx. 1-2 hours after the advisory release time
When and Where is P-Surge Available?
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php
P-Surge Available in 1 foot increments from 2 to 25 feet.
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Thank you…
• More details and products available at:• http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/ (SLOSH)• www.hurricanes.gov (National Hurricane Center)• www.weather.gov (NWS homepage)
John Cole252-223-5122 ext [email protected]