Stored Value Transaction Platform - Technology

Institute for Counter Terrorism AGS Encryptions Ltd. September 2006

BiPSA Neural Network Technology

The smartest among us, in the long run, are no match for the integrated wisdom of the relevant community.

ICT's Sixth Annual International Conference on Global Terrorism September 11–14, 2006 .

Integrating the Wisdom of the Global

Anti-Terrorism Community

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(*) BiPSA is a trademark licensed to AGS Encryptions Ltd.


BiPSA: The Principles

• The complexity of Anti-Terrorism Issues is best handled by integrating the wisdom of the relevant community.

• BiPSA casts this complexity as a series of scenarios for which the community is asked to vote: are they likely to happen, or not to happen.

• BiPSA integrates these votes according to (1) the conviction of the voter in his/her own opinion, (2) voter’s functional position (past, or present), (3) voter’s level of relevant knowledge, and (4) voter’s past BiPSA experience.

• BiPSA integrates its respondents’ opinions using a neural network that adapts and improves with use.


Running BiPSA

• The Institute for Counter Terrorism (ICT) has defined three scenarios of interest, and forwarded them to the conference participants to vote on.

• 53 participants voted by the first round deadline, and their votes were processed and integrated providing a weighty opinion on these important matters.


The BiPSA Scenarios

Each of the following scenarios: would it happen or not?Scenario#1: The Internet and World RadicalismAll attempts to develop discriminating technologies to deny terrorists and radicals the use of the Internet for recruiting adherents, raising money, exchanging intelligence, and planning attacks -- are doomed to fail. By the year 2010, the world community would weigh the drastic option of a complete shut down of the Internet.

Scenario#2: Military Action Against IranThe unmitigated militancy of Iran, its on-going support of terror organizations, and its declared intent to launch a war in the Middle East, would become a growing menace that by the end of 2008 would bring about a unilateral, or multi-lateral military operation that would destroy its budding Nuclear War capability

Scenario#3: Shiite CrescentBy the year 2010 Iran would succeed in establishing a Shiite crescent ranging from Iraq towards Lebanon, where Hezbollah would conspire towards Shiite control. The crescent would be teeming with militancy and radicalism.


The BiPSA Vote:

Please Vote: The above described scenario is more likely

TO HAPPEN: ...... NOT TO HAPPEN: The above described scenario is

HIGHLY LIKELY: ...... HIGHLY UNLIKELY:

NONE OF THE ABOVE: The above described scenario is

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN: ...... LIKELY:

VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE: ... UNLIKELY:

NONE OF THE ABOVE:

BiPSA Respondents were asked to answer three multiple-choice questions with respect to each given scenario. The first question captures their opinion, the other two captures their conviction in their own opinion.


BiPSA Respondents Indicated:


BiPSA Integrates Opinions

Opinions are expressed as “yes” (+) or “no” (-). The conviction behind the opinion Is expressed by its numeric value. A +3 is a higher conviction “yes” than +1.


Building the Network:Input sources may be configured through an infinite number of configurations, all based on stringing binary unit integrators in a unique way. The system would learn from experience how best to configure itself

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The +N:-N opinions are integrated into a same format output opinion. So, the output of a unit BiPSA integration can serve as an input to a subsequent integration, thereby the BiPSA Neural Network is constructed leading to the final output (conclusion).


Respondents Attributes:

Qualifications:Anti-Terror/Security Position: (Past or Present)

Management: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: Field Ops: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Advisory: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: .....Academic: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......

Background KnowledgeGeopolitical Knowledge: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: .....Relevant Science: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: .....Tools of Intelligence: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......


Accounting for Qualifications

Opinions, or votes issued by highly qualified people would be counted more times than low-qualified votes, as reflected in the BiPSA neural network.


BiPSA constructed a Network


Processed Scenario #1

The BiPSA integrated result for Scenario #1 is a clear negative. Only high level academic researchers had some doubts about it. Percentages of dissenting votes are shown.

The results reflect 53 voters



The BiPSA result for scenario #2 is an unequivocal “yes!”across the board. Percentages of dissenting votes are shown.




The BiPSA integrated result for scenario #3 is a clear “yes” with noted dissention from high-level anti-terror executives, and high-level scientific experts. Some hesitation from high-level field experts.



What’s Next?

A World-Wide BiPSA Anti-Terrorism Knowledge Network

ICT plans to enlist you, relevant members of the anti-terrorism community, as BiPSA

respondents.Important Issues of the Day would be defined as BiPSA scenarios for you to

vote on. The integrated results would be duly published.

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