Stock Talk with Red Roadmaster 24th June, 2009

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Talk Stock with Red Roadmaster

Transcript of Stock Talk with Red Roadmaster 24th June, 2009

Page 1: Stock Talk with Red Roadmaster 24th June, 2009

Red Roadmaster

STOCK TALK

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Red Roadmaster

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24th June, 2009 ContactPaul A. Ebeling, Jr.

[email protected]

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a success-ful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a spe-cialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with re-gard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

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The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Recap + Stock Talk

June 24, 2009 Alert: The Red Roadmaster looks at General Maritime (GMR), Medis Technologies Ltd. (MDTL) and Owens Corning (OC) for the 1st time.

The Recap of Tuesday’s US Stock Market Action

The S&P 500 rose yesterday as investors went bargain hunting.

Many of the stocks that led the market South on Monday were among those that led North Tuesday; banks, energy and materials.

The DJIA settled minus 16.10 pts (0.19%) at 8,322.91, the S&P 500 closed + 2.06 points (0.23%) at 895.10, and the NAS shed 1.27 pts (0.07%) to close at 1,764.92 on the day

US Crude Oil rose US$1.74 to settle at US$69.24 bbl reversing a slide of almost 4% from Monday and boosting energy shares. The two day FMOC meeting ends today in Washington DC and the Fed is widely expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at almost zero. Savvy investors will review statement closely for clues on its economic outlook. On the economic front yesterday: data showing sales of used homes rose in May at a pace that was below expectations initially caused stocks to waffle, but the data showed it was the first time the numbers rose in two consecutive months since September 2005, a good sign.

Volume and Breadth: Trading volume was below average on the NYSE, with about 1.21B/shrs changing hands, under last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/srs, and on the NAS about 2.18B/shrs traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,577 to 1,418, and on the NAS 1,574 stocks fell and 1,075 stocks rose.

Stock to Watch Today

Ambassadors Group Inc. (EPAX), DryShips, Inc. (DRYS), Ford Motor Company (F), General Maritime (GMR), Medis Technologies Ltd. (MDTL), Morgan Stanley (MS), Owens Corning (OC), and Oracle Corp. (ORCL).

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Ambassadors Group Inc. (EPAX) Up-date 1

June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Ambassadors Group Inc. (EPAX), a US an educational company that organizes and promotes international and domestic travel programs for youth, athletes, and professionals, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.

*Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: API Settlement Agreement

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/API-Settlement-pz-2333727299.html?x=0&.v=1

Tuesday’s Market Action Close 12.53 + 1.32 Volume 57,100/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on June 19 and no Gaps open up or down on the chart, the near term resistance is 13.71, support at 12.32, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 11.48.

This is Ambassadors Group Inc. (EPAX): this is an educational company, organizes and promotes international and domestic travel programs for youth, athletes, and professionals. The company, through its subsidiaries, offers Student Ambassador Programs, which provide opportunities for grade school, middle school, and high school students to travel to domestic and foreign destinations to learn about the history, government, economy, and culture of such countries; Sports Ambassador Programs that offer opportunities for middle school and high school athletes to participate in international tournaments. It also offers Leader Programs, which provide educational opportunities for middle school and high school students to learn leadership, government, college admissions, and community involvement skills at domestic destinations; and Citizen Ambassador Programs that offer foreign travel experiences for professionals, with emphasis on meetings and seminars between delegates and persons in similar backgrounds, interests, or professions abroad. In addition, the company operates an Internet research and educational Website to provide online research content, including lesson plans, critical essays, online study guides, biographies, literary criticisms, book and film summaries, and references to encyclopedia articles. It markets its programs through a combination of direct mail and local informational meetings. Ambassadors Group Inc. has strategic alliances with Students on Ice, Inc.; and Full On (Europe) Limited to provide adventure and quality for its Student and Citizen Ambassador Programs, as well as with Safe Passage Travel I, LLC to provide safety awareness to support the education and support of safe travel practices. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington

Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by business and tourist travel, which depends on the economy. The profitability of individual companies depends on marketing. Large companies have an advantage in being able to provide a wider range of services, especially to corporate customers, and to afford sophisticated websites. Small companies can compete effectively by providing service to a few large customers or by serving a local market. Despite automation, the industry remains labor-intensive; average annual revenue per employee at traditional travel agencies is just US$75,000.

Travel Agencies and Services Industry Forecast The output of US transportation services, which is a driver for travel agencies and services, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4%between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Ambassadors Group Inc. (HQ) Jeffrey D. Thomas, Chief Exec. Officer, President & Director 1956 Ambassador Way Spokane, WA 99224-4004 United States Phone: 509-568-7901 http://www.ambassadorsgroup.com

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DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) Up-date 8 June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Today, let’s have a look at DryShips, Inc. (DRYS), the international bulk sea carrier, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Bearish; in the near term Bearish, mid-term Bearish., and long term Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Dry Bulk Magnates Gather to Float Deals http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10524859/1/dry-bulk-magnates-gather-to-float-deals.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

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Tuesday’s Market Action Close 5.45 - .08 Volume 24,676,700/shrs

There is a Homing Pigeon on June 18, four Gaps open down between Jan 22 and June 22, 2009 at 3.16/6.03, the near term resistance is 7.13, support at 4.64, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 6.80.

This is DryShips Inc. (DRYS): DryShips commands a fleet of 40 dry bulk carriers. The company's vessels carry commodities such as coal, iron ore, and grain, as well as bauxite, fertilizers, and steel products. The fleet, which is made up mainly of Panamax vessels but also includes Capesize and Supramax units, has an overall capacity of more than 3.1MM deadweight tons (DWT). Vessels are chartered to shipping companies largely on the spot market, but also on long-term contracts. In addition to its dry bulk operations, Dry Ships is engaged in the offshore drilling business.

The Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by macroeconomic trends in global imports and exports. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and a good safety record. Large companies have advantages in fleet size and port access. Small companies can compete effectively by chartering services out of smaller ports and transporting unusual cargo. Average annual revenue per worker for a typical company is nearly US$500,000.

Deep Sea Shipping Industry Forecast The output of US water transportation, which includes deep sea shipping, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 7.4 % between 2008 and 2013.

DryShips Inc. (HQ)

Chairman, President, CEO, and Interim CFO George Economou 80 Kifissias Ave., Maroussi 15125 Athens, Greece Phone: +30-210-809-0570 http://www.dryships.com

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Ford Motor Company (F) Up-date 6

June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Today let’s look at Ford Motor Company (F), one of the world’s leading carmakers, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral, in the near term Neutral,, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Ford, Nissan, Tesla to get U.S. technology loans http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN2335101020090623?rpc=44

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Tuesday’s Market Action Close 5.53 + .15 Volume 60,565,500/shrs

There is a Homing Pigeon on June 19 and four Gaps open up between Apr 2 and May 14, 2009 at 2.80/4.99: the near term resistance is at 5.70, support at 5.24, and the 50 day exponential moving average is 5.27.

This is Ford Motor Company: Henry Ford began the US manufacturing revolution with his innovative mass production assembly lines in the early 1900s. The company is now a brand known around the world and firmly thought of by consumers as one of the world's largest makers of cars and trucks. FoMoCo’s brands include: Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury. Among its biggest current successes are the re-designed Ford Mustang and F-Series pickup. Ford owns a small stake in Mazda and also controls Volvo. The Company’s Finance subsidiary Ford Motor Credit is one of the US's leading auto finance companies. After clearing all of the antitrust and labor hurdles, Ford recently sold its Euro Luxury brands Land Rover and Jaguar to India-based Tata Motors for about US$2.3B in 2008. Ford is ranked #7 in FORTUNE 500

The Competitive Landscape

Ford Motor Company’s competition is the world automaker industry.

US auto demand is driven by employment and interest rates. The profitability of individual companies depends on manufacturing quality, efficiency, and marketing. The large carmakers produce multiple product lines that are marketed under different brand names. The smaller companies manufacture a fewer or single branded product lines. The large companies have the advantage of economy of scale, whereas the smaller companies compete by focusing on specialized markets. Due to highly automated manufacturing processes, the average annual revenue per employee is about US$1.4MM.

Auto Manufacture Industry Forecast

The output of US motor vehicles manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 8 % between 2008 and 2013.

Ford Motor Company (HQ) Chairman William Clay (Bill) Ford Jr. President, CEO, and Director Alan R. Mulally 1 American Rd. Dearborn, MI 48126-2798 United States Phone: 313-322-3000 Fax: 313-845-6073 Toll Free: 800-555-5259 http://www.ford.com Ford Motor Subsidiaries AutoAlliance International, Inc. Changan Ford Mazda Automobile Corporation, Ltd. Ford Division

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General Maritime Corp. (GMR)

June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at General Maritime (GMR), a leading operator of midsized tankers, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: General Maritime Corporation Presented at Morgan Stanley Commodities and Shipping Conference http://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Maritime-Corporation-prnews-4026058329.html?x=0&.v=3

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Tuesday’s Market Action Close 9.20 - .02 Volume 682,200/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 23, and two Gaps open up between Apr 2 and 7, 2009 at 7.18/8.13, the near term resistance is 9.59, support at 9.84, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 9.60.

This is General Maritime (GMR): A leading operator of midsized tankers, General Maritime transports Crude Oil, primarily in the Atlantic Basin but also in the Black Sea. The company's fleet of about 30 double-hull tankers includes Aframax and Suezmax vessels and has an overall capacity of about 3.9 million deadweight tons (DWT). General Maritime deploys its vessels both on the spot market (voyage by voyage) and under longer-term charter contracts. Customers have included major oil companies such as Chevron, CITGO, Exxon Mobil, Hess, and Shell. CEO Peter Georgiopoulos founded the company in 1997.

Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by macroeconomic trends in global imports and exports. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and a good safety record. Large companies have advantages in fleet size and port access. Small companies can compete effectively by chartering services out of smaller ports and transporting unusual cargo. Average annual revenue per worker for a typical company is nearly US$500,000.

Deep Sea Shipping Industry Forecast

The output of US water transportation, which includes deep sea shipping, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

General Maritime Corp. (HQ) Peter C. Georgiopoulos Founder, Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer 299 Park Avenue New York, NY 10171 United States Phone: 212-763-5600 http://www.generalmaritimecorp.com

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Medis Technologies Ltd. (MDTL)

June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Medis Technologies Ltd. (MDTL), a Israel developer of fuel cell technology, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Yugster.com Will Feature Medis Fuel Cell Power Emergency Kit http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Yugstercom-Will-Feature-Medis-prnews-1357908685.html?x=0&.v=1

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Tuesday’s Market Action Close .56 - .20 Volume 8,974,200/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on June 23, and one Gap open up on June 22, 2009 at .46/.54, the near term resistance is .58, support at .53, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is .42.

This is Medis Technologies Ltd. (MTL): The Company's Power Pack direct liquid ethanol/methanol (DLE/M) fuel cell technology is being earmarked for use in cell phones and other portable electronic devices as a power pack that charges as the piece of equipment is being used. Its CellScan is a desktop cytometer that is used for early detection of diseases. MTL spun off the business relating to CellScan as a separate company; Cell Kinetics completed a rights offering in the US in early 2008. MTL's products are developed in Israel through its wholly owned subsidiary Medis El.

Industries Where Medis Technologies Competes

Electronics, Electrical Products, and Power Generation & Storage (primary)

Medis Technologies Ltd. (HQ) Jose A. Mejia, Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President 805 Third Avenue 15th Floor New York, NY 10022 United States Phone: 212-935-8484 Fax: 212-935-9216 http://www.medistechnologies.com

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Morgan Stanley (MS) Up-date 3 June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Dear Reader,

Let’s have a look at Morgan Stanley (MS), the international investment banking giant, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Morgan Stanley to face near-term challenges from write-downs, integration costs

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ahead-of-the-Bell-Morgan-apf-3338450023.html?x=0&.v=1

Tuesday’s Market Action Close 27.70 + 1.07 Volume31,556,000/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 19 one Gap open up on Apr 30, 2009 at 23.24/23/48, the near term resistance is 27.86, support at 26.17, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 27.19.

This is Morgan Stanley (MS): The company through its subsidiaries and affiliates provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Institutional Securities, Global Wealth Management Group, and Asset Management. The Institutional Securities segment engages in various activities, including capital raising; provision of financial advisory services principally on mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense strategies, joint ventures, privatizations, recapitalizations, spin-offs, corporate restructurings, shareholder relations, tender offers, exchange offers, and leveraged buyouts; corporate lending; sales, trading, financing, and market-making activities in equity and fixed income securities and related products comprising foreign exchange and commodities; benchmark indices and risk management analytics; and investment. The Global Wealth Management Group segment provides brokerage and investment advisory services covering various investment alternatives comprising equities, options, futures, foreign currencies, precious metals, fixed income securities, mutual funds, and structured products, unit investment trusts, and managed accounts; financial and wealth planning services; annuity and insurance products; credit and other lending products; cash management services; retirement services; and trust and fiduciary services. The Asset Management segment offers asset management products and services in equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, which include hedge funds, fund of funds, real estate, private equity, and infrastructure to institutional and retail clients through proprietary and third party distribution channels. This segment also involves in investment activities. Morgan Stanley has a strategic alliance with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by economic activity that results in company mergers, acquisitions, or public financing. The profitability of an investment bank depends on its ability to accurately assess both the value of a business transaction and the readiness of the market to buy the attendant debt or equity. Big firms have an advantage because large customer transactions require firms with substantial financial resources. Small investment banks can compete by participating in syndications and operating in regional markets or specialized industries. Although labor-intensive, the industry produces very high value: average annual revenue per employee at large firms is close to US$1MM.

Investment Banking Industry Forecast The output of US securities, commodity contracts, and investments, an indicator for investment banking, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.1% between 2008 and 2013.

Morgan Stanley (HQ)

Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer John Mack 1585 Broadway New York, NY 10036 United States Phone: 212-761-4000 Fax: 212-761-0086 http://www.morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley Subsidiaries

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AMLI Residential Crescent Real Estate Equities Limited Partnership Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated

Owens Corning (OC)

June 24, 2009

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Owens Corning (OC), the holding company for insulation manufacturer Owens Corning Sales, from a Technical POV. The overall indicators, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bearish, and long term Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Owens Corning Licenses Award-Winning Twintex(R) Reinforcement Technology

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Owens-Corning-Licenses-prnews-1742806607.html?x=0&.v=1

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Tuesday’s Market Action Close Volume 00/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 19, and one Gap open down on June 22, 2009 at 11.05/10.97 the near term resistance is 11.86, support at 11.09, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 13.7.

This is Owens Corning (OC): this is the holding company for insulation manufacturer Owens Corning (now Owens Corning Sales) has emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after undergoing a six-year reorganization stemming from the financial toll of asbestos-related lawsuits. It has since resumed its role as a global leader of residential and commercial building materials, including foam insulation, roofing shingles, stone veneer for basements and sun rooms, and glass fiber used in bathtubs and showers. Owens Corning is among the largest insulation manufacturers in North America and is also active in South America, Europe, and Asia.

Industries Where OC Competes

Construction Construction Materials (primary) Retail Building Materials Retail & Distribution

Owens Corning (HQ)

Michael H. Thaman, Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer, President

One Owens Corning Parkway Toledo, OH 43659 United States Phone: 419-248-8000 Fax: 419-248-8445

http://www.owenscorning.com

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Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Up-date 5 June 24, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Oracle Corp. (ORCL), the Giant enterprise software company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (June 23, 2009) market action, are Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Oracle CEO Ellison Changes Tack on Cloud Computing

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124580329161844787.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs

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Tuesday’s Market Action Close 19.87 - .10 Volume 37,811,600/shrs There are two Gaps open up between Mar 19 & 31, 2009 at 16.09/17.82, the near term resistance is 20.14, support at 19.75, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 19.44. This is Oracle Corp. (ORCL): Oracle is an enterprise software company, engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, servicing, and marketing of database, middleware, and application software worldwide. The company’s New Software Licenses segment provides licenses for database and middleware software, including database management software, application server software, business intelligence software, identification and access management software, analytics software, content management software, development tools, and data integration software; and applications software that offers enterprise information for customer relationship management, financials, insurance, human resources, maintenance management, manufacturing, marketing, order fulfillment, product lifecycle management, procurement, projects, sales, services, enterprise resource planning, and supply chain planning sectors. It’s Software License Updates and Products Support segment offers customers with rights to unspecified software product upgrades and maintenance releases, and Internet access to technical content, as well as Internet and telephone access to technical support personnel. The company’s Consulting segment designs, implements, deploys, and upgrades database, middleware, and applications software. Its On Demand segment provides multi-featured software and hardware management, and maintenance services for clients deploying its software products; and support centers, assistance, technical account management, configuration and performance analysis, personalized support, annual on-site technical services, and other related services. The company’s Education segment offers online courses and self paced media training on CD-ROMs. It distributes its products and services to resellers, system integrators/implementers, consultants, education providers, Internet service providers, network integrators, and independent software vendors. Competitive Landscape The US economy heavily influences business spending for software products. The success of programming companies depends heavily on strong technical expertise. The success of packaged-software companies depends on technical expertise and good marketing. Small software companies compete mainly by developing packaged products in small niches or producing custom products for individuals. Many small companies form alliances with larger ones to market their products.

Computer Software Development Industry Forecast The output of US software publishers is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 6 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Oracle Corp. (HQ) Co-Founder, Chief Exec. Officer: Lawrence J. Ellison 500 Oracle Parkway Redwood Shores, CA 94065 United States Phone: 650-506-7000 Fax: 650-506-7200 http://www.oracle.com Oracle Subsidiaries Crystal Ball i-flex Solutions Limited Oracle Corporation Canada Inc. Disclaimer: The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. It is designed to help the reader learn the fine art of technical analysis. Links are provided to articles and stories referenced in this Report. Some statements and expressions are the points of view and/or opinions of Red Roadmaster™, aka Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. and the contributors. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I am not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The

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information presented herein has been obtained from readily available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. I do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this Report. Please feel free to print and/or send The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices ™ to your friends and associates, no permission is necessary. ©2002/2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr.