Stochastic modelling of electricity markets Pricing ...oldgajjar/magicalbooks/risk/c_Pricing.pdf ·...
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Stochastic modelling of electricity marketsPricing Forwards and Swaps
Jhonny Gonzalez
School of MathematicsThe University of Manchester
Magical books project
August 23, 2012
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Clip for this slide
Pricing of forwards and Swaps
Risk-neutral price modelling
Constructing Pricing measures
Pricing Forwards and Swaps
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Pricing of forwards and Swaps
Risk-neutral price modelling
Constructing Pricing measures
Pricing Forwards and Swaps
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DefinitionsForward Contracts
An electricity forward is a financial contract to purchase or
sell some specified volume of power at a certain future timefor a certain price.
Swap Contracts An electricity swap (futures) is a contract to purchase or sell
some specified volume of power for a certain price with
delivery over a period of time.
There exists physical and financial settlement.
We want to give to these contracts a “fair” price that does not
create arbitrage opportunities.
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Motivation. Asset pricing
The price of an asset depends on the risk involved in investing
in the asset.
The riskier the asset the more we ask in return for investing in
it. Investors require a greater incentive when they put their
money on more risky investments.
But if want to calculate the price of a particular asset and its
return, it will vary according to the risk preferences of each
investor. And, we would need to calculate each investor’s risk
preferences.
We need a common a set of risk preferences under which we
can price assets. It should include all investor’s preferences.
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It is possible to construct these set of preferences or probability,
and it is commonly known as the risk-neutral probability (ormeasure).
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Pricing of forwards and Swaps
Risk-neutral price modelling
Constructing Pricing measures
Pricing Forwards and Swaps
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Change of measureClip for this slide
Let (Ω,F ,P) be a probability space. Assume we have a standardnormal r.v. X, whose distribution is
P(X ≤ b) = b
−∞ϕ(x)dx , for all b.
Then obviously E[X ] = 0 and Var [X ] = 1. Now take Y = X + θ,
θ > 0. It is normal but “shifted” (non-standard now).
But what if we want Y to be a std. normal r.v.? We do not want
to subtract θ from Y and change Y .
We want to change the distribution of Y without changingY . We need to change P then to Q, say, such that EQ [Y ] = 0
and VarQ [Y ] = 1.
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!10 !8 !6 !4 !2 0 2 4 6 8 100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
X Y=X+2
Less probability to outcomes for which Y (ω) > 0.
More probability when Y (ω) < 0.
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This can be formally done in practice and is standard in
Probability. Radon-Nikodym theorem.
We want to get a bit more complicated and do the same not just
with random variables but with stochastic processes.
1. We want to change the distribution of prices without changing
the prices themselves.
2. Change the mean of the whole price process.
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Girsanov’s Theorem
Change of measure for continuous processes.Let Wt be a Brownian motion on (Ω,F ,P) and Θ(t) a process
that we know at time t (with the information Ft . Define
Wt = Wt + t
0Θ(s)ds.
Then a probability measure Q can be constructed such that on
(Ω,F ,Q) Wt is a Brownian motion.
Q is equivalent to P in the sense that they agree on what is
possible and what is not. (P(A) = 0 iff Q(A) = 0).
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Example. GBM
Take under the actual/true probability or preferences P we have
two possible investments:
Risky dSt = µStdt + σdWtSafe Ct = 1
Dt= ert , or dDt = −rDtdt.
µ mean rate of return of stock.
r interest rate.
σ volatility of stock.
In the safe investment
If today have £1
tomorrow make 1ert.
Back today 1ert(times)Dt .
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Consider what we call the discounted stock price process
DtSt"the money to put in the bank account today to get St at t”
It satisfies something like
d(DtSt) = σDtStdt [Θ + dWt ] .
Apply Girsanov’s theorem to get the dynamics under Q.
Put the same money back in the risky investment today but
with the new risk preferences.
What would the price dynamics be under this change of
measure?
dSt = rStdt + σStdWt .
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(Ω,F ,P) dSt = µStdt + σdWt(Ω,F ,Q) dSt = rStdt + σdWt
The change from P to Q changes the mean rate of return of
the stock to be the (risk-free) interest rate but not the
volatility.
The volatility says which prices paths are possible.
After the change we still have the same set of stock price
paths (unchanged volatility),
but if µ > r , this change puts more probability on thepaths with lower return, r , so that the overall mean is
reduced from µ to r .
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Esscher Transform. Jumps
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Change of measure for processes with jumps.
The Esscher transform is a generalisation of the Girsanov’s
theorem for Brownian motion to jump processes.
It has a similar formulation to the G.T., but in terms of jumps.
For this work it provides a risk-neutral measures that are
tractable for pricing in the presence of jumps.
Introduced by Esscher in 1932, and used for pricing in
financial markets starting with Gerber and Shiu (1994),
Option pricing with Esscher transforms.
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Change of measure in the presence of jumps
Some consequences. Change of measure affects1. Intensity for a Poisson process
2. Intensity and jump size for a Compound Poisson Process
3. Mean of BM, and intensity and jump size of jump process.
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Example. Geometric Poisson Process
(Ω,F ,P) dSt = µStdt + σSt−dMt .
(Ω,F ,Q) dSt = rStdt + σSt−dMt .
Mt = Nt − λt.
Changing from P to Q changes the intensity of the CPP
Mt = Nt − λt, with
λ = λ − µ−rσ .
Hence Mt = Mt +µ−r
σ = Mt + Θ.
There is a smaller intensity.
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Remarks
1. Under the Q the return is always r, that is why we call it the
risk-neutral measure.
2. It is not the real probability, it is different but depends on the
real one.
3. It does not assume that we live in a risk-free world. It is a
probability, it still makes the future uncertain.
4. It does not assume investors (market players) do not care
about risk. They do care about risk. But they can use it to
price assets as it contains all risk preferences.
5. Solutions under a risk-neutral measure or pricing measure are
valid in the real world where real risk preferences apply.
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Remarks
The risk-neutral measure is the only measure that gives
arbitrage-free prices (in complete markets).
This method is only a very useful computational tool, but it
is artificial.
In mathematical finance they allow to solve PDEs more easily.
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Pricing measures and pricing formula.
"Initial capital" = "discounted expected payoff"
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A Common set of preferences
Ω,F , Ftt≥0 ,P
(outcomes, relative information, preferences)
Ω,F , Ftt≥0 ,Q
(outcomes, relative information, pricing preferences)
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Pricing of forwards and Swaps
Risk-neutral price modelling
Constructing Pricing measures
Pricing Forwards and Swaps
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Clip for this slide
Let us price forwards and swaps with general spot price S(t).We assume there exists a pricing measure Q equivalent to the
actual measure.
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ForwardsAssume we buy a forward contract at time t promising future
delivery at τ, 0 ≤ t ≤ τ. The agreed price to pay upon delivery is
f (t, τ). The underlying product has price dynamics S(t). Include
a risk-free asset yielding a continuously compounded rate of return
r > 0, and initial price equal to one.
At τ the payoff is
S(τ)− f (t, τ).
Since it is costless to enter in a forward contract, risk-neutral
valuation gives (integrability conditions apply)
e−r(τ−t)EQ [S(τ)− f (t, τ) | Ft ] = 0.
Assuming f (t, τ) is Ft measurable (set the price with the
information available up to time t), we get
f (t, τ) = EQ [S(τ) | Ft ] .
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ForwardsAssume we buy a forward contract at time t promising future
delivery at τ, 0 ≤ t ≤ τ. The agreed price to pay upon delivery is
f (t, τ). The underlying product has price dynamics S(t). Include
a risk-free asset yielding a continuously compounded rate of return
r > 0, and initial price equal to one.
At τ the payoff is
S(τ)− f (t, τ).
Since it is costless to enter in a forward contract, risk-neutral
valuation gives (integrability conditions apply)
e−r(τ−t)EQ [S(τ)− f (t, τ) | Ft ] = 0.
Assuming f (t, τ) is Ft measurable (set the price with the
information available up to time t), we get
f (t, τ) = EQ [S(τ) | Ft ] .
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ForwardsAssume we buy a forward contract at time t promising future
delivery at τ, 0 ≤ t ≤ τ. The agreed price to pay upon delivery is
f (t, τ). The underlying product has price dynamics S(t). Include
a risk-free asset yielding a continuously compounded rate of return
r > 0, and initial price equal to one.
At τ the payoff is
S(τ)− f (t, τ).
Since it is costless to enter in a forward contract, risk-neutral
valuation gives (integrability conditions apply)
e−r(τ−t)EQ [S(τ)− f (t, τ) | Ft ] = 0.
Assuming f (t, τ) is Ft measurable (set the price with the
information available up to time t), we get
f (t, τ) = EQ [S(τ) | Ft ] .
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SwapsAssume now the buyer of an electricity futures receives power
during the period [τ1, τ2], physically or financially against paying a
fixed price F (t, τ1, τ2), t ≤ τ1.
At time t the value of the payoff is
τ2
τ1e−r(u−t) (S(u)− F (t, τ1, τ2)) du.
Since it is costless to enter an electricity futures
EQ
τ2
τ1e−r(u−t) (S(u)− F (t, τ1, τ2)) du | Ft
= 0.
Assuming F (t, τ1, τ2) is Ft measurable, we get
F (t, τ1, τ2) = EQ
τ2
τ1
re−ru
e−rτ1 − e−rτ2S(u)du | Ft
.
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SwapsAssume now the buyer of an electricity futures receives power
during the period [τ1, τ2], physically or financially against paying a
fixed price F (t, τ1, τ2), t ≤ τ1.
At time t the value of the payoff is
τ2
τ1e−r(u−t) (S(u)− F (t, τ1, τ2)) du.
Since it is costless to enter an electricity futures
EQ
τ2
τ1e−r(u−t) (S(u)− F (t, τ1, τ2)) du | Ft
= 0.
Assuming F (t, τ1, τ2) is Ft measurable, we get
F (t, τ1, τ2) = EQ
τ2
τ1
re−ru
e−rτ1 − e−rτ2S(u)du | Ft
.
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SwapsAssume now the buyer of an electricity futures receives power
during the period [τ1, τ2], physically or financially against paying a
fixed price F (t, τ1, τ2), t ≤ τ1.
At time t the value of the payoff is
τ2
τ1e−r(u−t) (S(u)− F (t, τ1, τ2)) du.
Since it is costless to enter an electricity futures
EQ
τ2
τ1e−r(u−t) (S(u)− F (t, τ1, τ2)) du | Ft
= 0.
Assuming F (t, τ1, τ2) is Ft measurable, we get
F (t, τ1, τ2) = EQ
τ2
τ1
re−ru
e−rτ1 − e−rτ2S(u)du | Ft
.
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If the settlement takes place financially at τ2, then
F (t, τ1, τ2) = EQ
τ2
τ1
1
τ2 − τ1S(u)du | Ft
.
With the function
ω(u) =
1 settlement at τ2e−ru settlement over [τ1, τ2]
define the weight function ω(u, s, t) = ω(u) ts ω(v)dv . Hence, in
general we have
F (t, τ1, τ2) = EQ
τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)du | Ft
.
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FactSuppose EQ
τ2τ1
|ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)|du< ∞. Then
F (t, τ1, τ2) = τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)f (t, u)du.
Intuitively, holding a swap can be considered as holding a
continuous stream of forwards.
FactSuppose EQ [|S(τ)|] < ∞. Then
limt↑τ
f (t, τ) = S(τ).
At delivery there is no difference between entering the forward or
buying the commodity in the spot market.
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FactSuppose EQ
τ2τ1
|ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)|du< ∞. Then
F (t, τ1, τ2) = τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)f (t, u)du.
Intuitively, holding a swap can be considered as holding a
continuous stream of forwards.
FactSuppose EQ [|S(τ)|] < ∞. Then
limt↑τ
f (t, τ) = S(τ).
At delivery there is no difference between entering the forward or
buying the commodity in the spot market.
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FactSuppose EQ
τ2τ1
|ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)|du< ∞. Hence, a.s.,
limt↑τ1
F (t, τ1, τ2) = τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)f (τ1, u)du.
If delivery takes place over a period of time, swap prices do not
converge to the spot price at delivery. If S(t) is a Q martingale
the convergence of the swap to the spot holds. A swap contract
delivering the commodity at a single point in time is a forward.
FactSuppose EQ
τ2τ1
|ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)|du< ∞. Then
limτ2→τ1
F (t, τ1, τ2) = f (t, τ1).
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FactSuppose EQ
τ2τ1
|ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)|du< ∞. Hence, a.s.,
limt↑τ1
F (t, τ1, τ2) = τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)f (τ1, u)du.
If delivery takes place over a period of time, swap prices do not
converge to the spot price at delivery. If S(t) is a Q martingale
the convergence of the swap to the spot holds. A swap contract
delivering the commodity at a single point in time is a forward.
FactSuppose EQ
τ2τ1
|ω(u, τ1, τ2)S(u)|du< ∞. Then
limτ2→τ1
F (t, τ1, τ2) = f (t, τ1).
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Pricing of forwards and swaps
In order to derive formulas for the forward and swaps prices for the
geometric and arithmetic models, we use the Esscher transform
along with the formulas
f (t, τ) = EQ [S(τ) | Ft ]
and
F (t, τ1, τ2) = τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)f (t, u)du.
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Geometric and arithmetic models
ln S(t) = ln Λ(t) +m∑i=1
Xi (t) +n∑j=1
Yi (t), (1)
S(t) = Λ(t) +m∑i=1
Xi (t) +n∑j=1
Yj(t) (2)
where, for i = 1, ...,m,
dXi (t) = (µi (t)− αi (t)Xi (t))dt +p∑k=1
σik(t)dWk(t),
and, for j = 1, ..., n,
dYj(t) = (δj(t)− βj(t)Yj(t))dt + ηj(t)dIj(t).
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Pricing of forwards. Geometric model
Let 0 ≤ t ≤ τ and assume S(t) is the geometric spot price model
from above. Unser some conditions we have that
f (t, τ) = Λ(τ)Θ(t, τ; θ(·))
× exp
m∑i=1
τ
tµi (u)e−
τu αi (v)dv du
× exp
n∑j=1
τ
tδj(u)e−
τu βj (v)dv du
× exp
m∑i=1
e− τ
t αi (v)dv Xi (t) +n∑j=1
e− τ
t βj (v)dv Yj(t)
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where Θ(t, τ; θ(·)) is given by
ln Θ(t, τ; θ(·)) =n∑j=1
ψj(t, τ;−i(ηj(·)e−
τ· βj (v)dv + θj(·)))
+ψj(t, τ;−i θj(·))
+1
2
p∑k=1
τ
t
m∑i=1
σik(u)e− τ
u αi (v)dv2
du
+m∑i=1
p∑k=1
τ
tσik(u)θk(u)e−
τu αi (v)dv du.
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Samuelson effectClip for this slide
Under some conditions the dynamics of t → f (t, τ) wrt to Q(when there are no jumps) is
df (t, τ)f (t, τ)
=p∑k=1
m∑i=1
σik(t) exp
−
τ
tαi (u)du
dWk(t).
The volatilities of the forward are decreasing with time to
delivery, being smaller than the spot volatility.
When time to delivery approaches zero, the forward volatility
converges to the volatilities of the spot σik(t). The arrival of information to the market has a much bigger
effect when there is short time left to maturity than for the
long-term contracts (the market has time to adjust, prices are
mean reverting).
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Pricing of swaps
For the geometric spot model we have
F (t, τ1, τ2) = τ2
τ1ω(u, τ1, τ2)f (t, u)
exp
m∑i=1
e− u
t αi (v)dv Xi (t) +n∑j=1
e− u
t βj (v)dv Yj(t)
du.
In general, this integral does not have any analytic solution,
and hence numerical integration is required for its evaluation.
If the speed of mean reversion terms αi and βj are both zero,
an analytic solution exists. However, the Samuelson effect is
not observed with this restricted dynamics.
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For arithmetic models...
We get similar formulae.
In many cases the integral can be solved analytically.
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What could be done as well?
Price options in the presence of jumps or in their absence.
Call, puts, spark spread option, options in weather markets.
Hedge options on forwards and swaps.
Need more advanced maths, Fourier series, etc.
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Benth, F. E., Benth, J. Š. and Koekebakker S..
Stochastic modelling of electricity and related markets.
World Scientific, London. 2008