[email protected] Efficient Suburbs 2020 Emma’s: efficient cities –Speaks Democrat &...
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[email protected] Efficient Suburbs 2020 • Emma’s: http://www.cities21.org/ , efficient cities – Speaks Democrat & Republican - clumsy? • Agenda: – ? 2 minutes on Smart Growth ? • Yell to define jargon – Background (13 slides) • Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable – PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13) – Walk to Work Homes (4) – Green Culture (2) – Digital Hitchhiking.
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Transcript of [email protected] Efficient Suburbs 2020 Emma’s: efficient cities –Speaks Democrat &...
Efficient Suburbs 2020• Emma’s: http://www.cities21.org/ , efficient cities
– Speaks Democrat & Republican - clumsy?
• Agenda:– ? 2 minutes on Smart Growth ?
• Yell to define jargon
– Background (13 slides)• Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable
– PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13)– Walk to Work Homes (4)– Green Culture (2)– Digital Hitchhiking.
Is this real?• Is global warming a concern?• Is “peak oil” a concern?
– $6, $9, or even $12 per gallon?– GNP shrinks?– “petro-shock” plans? – prudent
• Energy policy: all benefits, no sacrifice. Quick, easy govt fixes? It’s what we want.
• 85% high-schoolers pessimistic– Self-fulfilling
• Most common strategy for the future is denial (Schwartz – Art of Long View).
Regional Visioning• 30 big U.S. metro regions are “visioning”
– CA @ 50M, CNU/RV, CA’s Future in the Balance, Compass, MTC, Frego/Calthorpe 80% share
• In 25 years, 50% population growth. w/ smart scenario, only 40% VMT increase– Scenario implementation not guaranteed – Things get worse. Only slows the acceleration of
degradation. Calthorpe: “We should be doing more to reduce ecological footprint” (www.ecofoot.org)
– Current TOD/SG isn’t a fix. Only 200 small transit villages• Need more, bigger, smarter SG faster, dang it!
– Toolbox doesn’t work. Have to go outside of the box
• Frego/Calthorpe held back by clients. Unchecked, Calthorpe would have: – Carbon tax, PRT circulator (not “90 year old transit
technology”), strong office park Rx.
Disfunctional Human Settlement Patterns(Risse)
• Big required change: demand/behavior side. There’s no quick transportation or energy supply fix. (dilithium)
– Frustration: environment smart growth links are weak
• For each person, minimize the distances in the triangle below. Miles feet– 4 story urbanist mixed use TV 50% of trips w/o car,
mostly walk, not transit (GB Arrington, TCRP 102) – “walk to quart of milk”
• πr2 :: pipes, wires, streets, distribution. Infrastructure cost savings in the billions for Envision Utah. (25% -TCRP74)
Home Job
Activities
115
125
81
83
115
28
69
20
42
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
Million BTU per Year
SuburbanAvg (240
MBTU)
SuburbanGreen (164 MBTU)
Urban Avg (143 MBTU)
Urban Green (89 MBTU)
UrbanMultifamilyGreen (62
MBTU)
Single Family Household Type
Transportation UseHousehold Use
© Jonathan Rose Companies, LLC
Sprawl vs. Green UrbanAre suburbanites villains? No, but future choices really matter
What should goals be?• 89 MBTU, not 240 Kyoto, cap VMT at 2006• Growth boundary (more than 1 species - superchimp)• Lower cost of living + upward mobility• Profit (no govt $ to scale up subsidized program) viral• Unleash human goodness stomp pessimism: show method to solve big problems• Lesser goals
– Health promotion– Social: vibrant, not Bowling Alone– Mobility for people who can’t drive – More productive travel
• Not our job:– Sierra Club’s Holtzclaw: Sustainable population is 4B– Reduced ecological footprint food production (vegetarian)– Curtail materialism (Worldwatch, etc).– Curtail airplane travel
Can Government Achieve these goals?
• 2 slides on why govt can’t – (public policy theory).
Quantum Innovation / Public Policy (Burke)
• Innovations produce winners & losers• Political subsystems favor incremental change
– ag, defense, energy, transit, healthcare, edu, etc.– “analysis is politics by other means”– Auto/highway subsystem trumps transit
• Public sector: huge penalty for failure• Media stifles innovation, accentuates conflict• Macropolitical system can impose quantum
change – earmarks, etc– ’79+: mature democracy, entrenched interests
• Billionaires & tech foundations: quantum• Strong govt: Dubai, Singapore.
Social Entrepreneurism• micro-credit, India street kids, AIDs education• Act local (small $), strive for widespread impact
– Fix 1 suburb world is saved (viral spread, mutation)
• Government is not the solution – resistant, but good follower
• S. E. characteristics:– Boring at dinner parties– Driven, stamina, undeterred– “Ends" oriented
• Will change/refine tactics
– Listener (behavioral)– Cross-disciplinary, practical.
By David Bornstein
Fake solutions• Hydrogen economy (A better battery, so nice
increment. Entrenched interests)
• AHS (auto-pilot cars) – “low friction” long distance transportation ultra sprawl
• Outer ring solar roof McMansion
• “Socially responsible” companies– w/ bad settlement patterns.
Multiple Solutions w/ Trade-offs• Emma: Any real solution is good• Cities21: Complex, comprehensive,
integrated. Make smart growth smarter– How to make it happen. Economics. Envt impact.
Vetted via 300 mtngs (need more visions!)
• Vs. cursory ecocity wishlists (how? $?) • Auto-hostility works pretty well: $10 office park
parking, parking shortages, etc. But, tragedy of commons
• What’s “least crazy?”– Denial?.
3 stage path to sustainability (Risse)
• Can’t go straight there• 1) Populist: Consciousness raising, recycling, sea
bass, Prius, non-threatening to government• 2) Fundamental: efficient human settlement patterns.
Land-use conversant population, government restructuring. Green building
• 3) Profound: 80% NRG & resource reduction, 4B population, accurate pricing, renewable NRG, diet restructuring, anti-materialism, lower GNP, etc
The Villain: Suburban Office Parks• Main cause of sprawl & congestion for 30 years
– Affordability decreasing, segregation increasing– 200 with ~ 30K workers 6M+ workers
• ULI’s Transforming Suburban Business Districts• Calthorpe “We didn't focus on office parks. Huge
mistake. Need powerful strategies for these”• Cervero: So bad they’re easy to fix• Shoup (High Cost of Free Parking) - Parking lots land
bank. – The new frontier: 5 parking spaces per car
• Upper Rock & Tysons business parks TOD.
Villain 2: Housing Industry• Problem: few innovative housing choices • 1) Zimmerman / Volk. Home industry: "lumbering
giants.” No genuine innovations. No “meaningful improvement of the product offered to the consumer"
• 2) SG America: "Homes are like pork bellies, all the same, rather than as consumer products which vary greatly according to people's preferences.” HPD #12i4
• New choice: vibrant, green suburban lifestyle: short commute apts and condos, mixed use, good schools.
(By John S. Pritchett
www.pritchettcartoons.com)
END of Background
• Background (13 slides)– Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable
• Complex solution:– PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13)– Walk to Work Homes (4)– Green Culture (2)– Digital Hitchhiking.
“Environmentalism”• 4B population (large # people)
– Helps all• Efficient Cities (large # people)
– Helps all Culture, goodness
Political will
• Gripes– Stovepipe thinking– Wishlists (how? $?)– Insufficient scale– Focus on symptoms– Not “work backwards”.
Fish stocks
Water supply & quality
Forests
Habitat
Soil
Warming
Peak Oil
Air Pollution
Earth in Balance
Plan B 2.0
Collapse
Biodiversity
Nature
NRGSmarter growth
Asilomar Conf.
Long Emergency
Apollo
Best practice solns
“Small” # people
Takes $ & will
