Stepping Away From Trend Analyses For Regional Integrated Planning and Modelling
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Stepping Away From Trend
Analyses For Regional
Integrated Planning and
Modelling
Pascal PerezResearch Director
September 2014
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From SID to Vision Illawarra
SMART Infrastructure Dashboard• Electricity (2007-2013)
• Water (2007-2013)*
• Sewage (2007-2013)*
• Solid Waste (2007-2013)**
*: SCC excluded ; **: KMC & SCC excluded
Vision Illawarra• Land Use Changes
• Economic Changes
• Traffic Patterns
• Consumption Patterns
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Departing from Trend-Based Forecasting
Trend-based Forecasting• Feed-forward process
• Easy to implement
• Prone to drifting
• Sensitive to initial assumption
Integrated Modelling• Iterative process
• Complex calibration
• Self-correcting ability
• Sensitive to internal rules
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Addressing Complex Planning Issues
Unanderra
Albion Park
Dapto
Too many interactions and feedback loops for a trend-based analysis
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GEONAMICA Modular Framework
Utility module will use data from SID for design and calibration
UTILITY(tba)
LAND USE(METRONAMICA)
TRANSPORT(4-STEP)
DEMOGRAPHIC(SYNT POP)
ECONOMIC(IO-EC)
GEONAMICA (RIKS, NL)
NEW module
Developed in collaboration
with RIKS
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Preliminary Scenario Exploration(land use & transportation only)
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Base Scenario (2012 – 2022)
Animated land use change
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Base Scenario (2012 – 2022)
Selected land use classes – closer look
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Base Scenario (2012 – 2022)
Max Road Network Congestion
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Calibration and Validation Methods
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aggregation
Vector to raster (100m)
2006 land use map
Model updates the map every time step (1 year)
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Land Use Model
2012 simulate land use
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Very high res. Satellite images 2012
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Land Use Model
Feature extraction
Urban Residential & Industrial/Commercial Land Uses 2012
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2012 simulate land use
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Land Use Model
Observed Urban Residential & Industrial/Commercial Land Uses 2012
Compare per class
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Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Transportation Model
Starting point: O-D Matrix 2006 generated using HTS dataDimensions
- 175 Travel zones (175x175)- 5 time periods of the day- 2 modes (car, public transport)- 4 purposes (home, work, social, shopping)
Run the model and simulate the OD matrix for 2012
Compare simulated outputs with HTS 2012 aggregate data (LGA level)
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Calibration & Validation Results
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Calibration - ResultsLand Use Model
Simulated vs Observed – Urban Residential 2012
Model
Observed
Urban Residential 13579 673 801
Industrial/Commercial 213 3751 1357
Other 1438 516 178160
Urban Residential Industrial/Commercial Other
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Calibration - ResultsTransportation Model
OBSERVED - 2012 MODEL - 2012 MODE = Car
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 36369 11833 4059 4919
Shellharbour 10322 132140 1625 51671
Shoalhaven 3335 827 303351 5018
Wollongong 7261 52781 5108 565712
OBSERVED - 2012 MODEL - 2012 MODE = Public Transport
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 1417 484 345 503
Shellharbour 724 2742 2287
Shoalhaven 345 8323 218
Wollongong 345 1425 218 29028
MODE = Car
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 24866 17786 7876 10307
Shellharbour 16637 94960 6701 60894
Shoalhaven 12015 4909 247010 3091
Wollongong 10679 64449 6121 435528
MODE = Public Transport
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 963 710 91 386
Shellharbour 767 7282 159 4563
Shoalhaven 152 133 3458 205
Wollongong 421 4329 276 32747
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Face Validation - ResultsTransportation Model
Weekday morning peak traffic - Google Weekday morning peak traffic - Model
Network speed
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Current limitations and ongoing work
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Current Limitations
2 (ideally 3) complete land use maps at 3 time points (with sufficient gap)
Sufficient details – high, medium, low density residential- separate industrial, commercial classes
Zoning data & expert interpretation
HTS data for same time points – OD down to TZ (SA1 ideally)
Disaggregation of PT into buses and trains
More time for calibration (and validation)
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Ongoing work
Fitting the land use and transportation models with detailed data
Detailed calibration and validation
Coding up and integrating econometric I/O model
Conceptual model development for the utility module
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Pascal PerezResearch DirectorSMART Infrastructure Facility+61 2 4252 [email protected]