'STEM & Us' Breakfast News 25 April 2013
118
STEM & US
description
Transcript of 'STEM & Us' Breakfast News 25 April 2013
STEM & US
WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU VIA TWITTER
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STEM students are using targetjobs.co.uk
AGENDA FOR TODAY THE ECONOMIC FORECAST – BACK TO THE FUTURE
RECRUITING FROM STEM SUBJECTS
THE QUESTIONS YOU KEEP ASKING ME
THE MOST EXPENSIVE SCIENCE COLLABORATION IN THE WORLD - HOW CERN'S TECHNOLOGY TRAINING CAN SERVE UK INDUSTRY
THE BIG BANG THEORY IN 15 MINUTES
THE ECONOMIC FORECAST – BACK TO THE FUTURE
Bumping along the bottom
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
%
QUARTERLY
ANNUAL
Long-term average
The growth shortfall
0
1
2
3
4
201520142013201220112010
%
2013 Budget
2012 Budget
2011 Budget
2010 Budget
Annual GDP growth forecasts in each Budget
…means more borrowing
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2010 Budget2011 Budget2012 Budget2013 Budget
Public sector net borrowing (£bn)
…and higher debt levels
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
% o
f GD
P
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
% of G
DP
2010 Budget 2013 Budget
2011 Budget 2012 Budget
Public sector net debt:
OUTLOOK
Inflation – likely to ease
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% c
hang
e m
onth
on
mon
th
CPI RPI
Forecast
Target
Range
Interest rates to stay low
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%Forecast
So sterling to remain competitive
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$/£
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
€/£
Sterling weaker
US$ / £ (L axis)
euro / £ (R
axis)
Forecast
GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%)
Where is growth coming from?
Real earnings growing again
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average earnings growthConsumer price inflation
Real earnings growth
%
Debt repayment underway
75
100
125
150
175
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
%
75
100
125
150
175
%
Household debt:income ratios
Reasons to be cheerful (1)
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A slow consumer recovery
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.519
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
14
% C
HA
NG
E
CONSUMER
Forecast
GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +
Investment (15%)
Where is growth coming from?
Corporate sector in good shape
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
£ bi
llion
8
10
12
14
16
18
%
Gross operating surplus
Profitability
Operating surplus and profitability of UK private non-financial companies
…but not spending
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
%
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140£ billion
Investment relative to post-tax surplus(L axis)
Level of investment (R axis)
Investment by Private Non-financial Corporations
Reasons to be cheerful (2)
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Investment to pick up……at last
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% a
nnua
l gro
wth
Business Investment
Forecast – OBR 2013
GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +
Investment (15%) +
Government spending (23%)
Where is growth coming from?
Getting the deficit down
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18
£ bn
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
%
Net borrowing (L axis)
% of GDP* (R axis)
GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +
Govt consumption (23%) +
Investment (15%) +
Net trade (-2%) (Exports 30% – Imports 32%)
Where is growth coming from?
Reasons to be cheerful (3)
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Trade becomes a plus for growth
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
% o
f GD
P
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Annual %
change
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT (LHS)
Annual export growth (% RHS)
Reasons to be cheerful (4)
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Reasons to be cheerful (5)
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Turning the corner
Light At The End Of The Tunnel
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Sluggish growth – but growth
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%
QUARTERLY
ANNUAL
Long-term average
Forecast
THE NEW AGENDA
A rebalanced economy
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
perc
enta
ge p
oint
s
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0percentage points
Average 1999-2008
Contributions to growth
Private consumption
Investment
Public spending
Net trade
A rebalanced economy the goal
Net trade
Private consumption
Business investment
GovtSpending
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
perc
enta
ge p
oint
s
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0percentage points
Average 1999-2008
Average 2010-2015
Contributions to growth
Where will growth come from?
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1993-2000 2001-2007
Industrial production (19)
Transport and comms (8)
Construction (6)
Distribution, etc. (15)
Property & business (24)
Financial Services (3)
Public services (24)
Manufacturing output
100
150
200
250
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
inde
x (1
950
= 10
0)
100
150
200
250
index (1950 = 100)
Volume of manufacturing output
Manufacturing vs services
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
inde
x (1
950
= 10
0)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
index (1950 = 100)
GDP Services Volume of output, 1950-2009
Manufacturing
FDI is essential
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
No of projects
Number
Overseas investment stock, 2011
UK
France
Germany
Italy
0
500
1000
1500
0
500
1000
1500
Stock of overseas investment, 2011: EU total = $7,275 billion
$ bn $ bn
16.5% 13.2% 9.8%
4.6%
THANK YOU
RECRUITING FROM STEM SUBJECTS
OPENING HEADLINES
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WHAT GROUND WILL I COVER? •
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HOUSE OF LORDS SELECT COMMITTEE – HE IN STEM SUBJECTS (2012)
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HOUSE OF LORDS SELECT COMMITTEE – HE IN STEM SUBJECTS (2012)
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SOCIAL MARKET FOUNDATION
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SOCIAL MARKET FOUNDATION
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AGR SURVEY OF STEM RECRUITERS
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RECRUITER APPROACHES TO OVERCOME THE PROBLEM
WHY DO STEM GRADUATES AVOID STEM CAREERS?
IS THERE A GENDER ISSUE?
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HOW DO YOU OVERCOME GENDER IMBALANCES? • • • • • • •
ARE YOU INVOLVED IN ANY COLLECTIVE EFFORT TO ENCOURAGE YOUNG PEOPLE INTO YOUR SECTOR?
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ONE THING TO IMPROVE THE SITUATION: • • • •
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The key is to inform, inspire and educate younger people on the wealth of career opportunities that STEM can lead to.
THE QUESTIONS YOU KEEP ASKING ME
The usual suspects
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BIG QUESTION #1
BIG ANSWER #1
But perhaps there is a shortage…
• • •
The cardinal sins of screening
The cardinal sins of screening
The salary shortage
The offer shortage
A tale of two civils
BIG QUESTION #2
BIG ANSWER #2
GCSE results – girls beat boys.
GCSE results – girls beat boys. Sort of.
So what A levels do they choose?
A Level results – girls beat boys.
A Level science – the boys are back…
Degree choices – old stereotypes apply
Speaking of old stereotypes…
What do we do about this?
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BIG QUESTION #3
BIG ANSWER #3
The options…
• • • •
Not all engineers are “engineers”.
• • • •
Not all “engineers” are engineers.
A few final thoughts. •
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Get in touch
THE MOST EXPENSIVE SCIENCE COLLABORATION IN THE WORLD - HOW CERN’S TECHNOLOGY TRAINING CAN SERVE UK INDUSTRY
The Large Hadron Collider
Lake Geneva
LHC
SPS
PS
France
Switzerland
The Detectors
• – – –
• –
–
• – –
• Français
Some LHC Statistics
• • •
• •
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Collaboration and Invention
• • • • • •
UK Involvement and Funding
• • • •
• • •
Training and Employment offered by CERN
Fields most in demand
The Learning Opportunity
• • • • • • •
UK Participation Figures
Moving Forward
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Conclusion
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THE BIG BANG THEORY IN 15 MINUTES
The effort to understand the universe is one of the very few things that lifts human life a little above the level of farce, and gives it some of the grace of tragedy.
Steven Weinberg, Nobel Prize 1979
The Big Bang Theory in 15 Minutes
• A Level Physics, 1982 55,728 entrants
• A Level Physics, 2006 28,119 entrants
• A Level Physics, 2012 34,509 entrants
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 666.
There was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, sad Satan. www.reversespeech.com
STOP
It s my sweet Satan. It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh,
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you,
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 6
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 66
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 666.
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 666.
There was a little toolshed
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 666.
There was a little toolshed where he made us suffer,
It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan.
Oh, he ll give you, give you 666.
There was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, sad Satan.
R REVEAL
The most incomprehensible thing about the universe is that it is comprehensible.
Albert Einstein
There are two ways of arriving at the
truth. I decided to follow them both.
Georges Lemaître, 1894-1966
Your calculations are correct, but your physics
is abominable.
Teletubbies = Time × Money but, Time = Money
⇒ Teletubbies = Money × Money ⇒ Teletubbies = Money2
and Money = √(Evil)
⇒ Teletubbies = Evil
⇒ Money2 = Evil
Wav
elen
gth
(nm
)
400nm
700 nm
700 nm
600 nm
500 nm
400 nm
700 nm
600 nm
500 nm
400 nm
400nm
700 nm
Do the red shifts imply receding galaxies?
Spherical
Bastard
We are 12 billion light-years from the edge,
That s a guess,
No one can ever say it s true,
But I know that I will always be with you.
We are 13.7 billion light-years from the edge of the observable universe,
That s a good estimate with well-defined error bars,
And with the available information, I predict that I will always be with you
