Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going?

Paul McElhany

NOAA Fisherie

Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Talk Outline

• Recent NOAA Status Review– General Conclusions– Big Issues– Next Steps

• TRT Viability Criteria– Purpose of criteria– General Structure– Preliminary Targets

• TRT Population Evaluations

Biological Review Team

• Reviewed status of all listed species in 2003

• Relied on available data

Winter Steelhead Populations in LCR

Summer Steelhead Populations in LCR

Population Statistics in BRT Review

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Ab

un

da

nc

e

Total Spawners Natural Origin Spawners

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Brood Year

Ab

un

da

nc

e

Pre-Harvest Recruits Spawners

Coweeman

Kalama

Sandy

WindSF Toutle

NF Toutle

Clackamas

Washougal

0.77

0.82

0.87

0.92

0.97

1.02

1.07

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Recent Mean Natural Origin Spawners

Gro

wth

Ra

te (l

)

Run Population

Years for Trend

Prob. Trend <1

Prob. l < 1

Hatchery = 0

Hatchery = Wild

Winter

Coweeman 1990-2002 0.822 0.851 0.995

South Fork Toutle 1990-2002 0.919 0.797 0.812

North Fork Toutle 1990-2002 0.026 0.135 0.135

Kalama 1990-2002 0.463 0.593 0.846

Clackamas 1990-2001 0.929 0.849 0.929

Sandy 1990-2001 0.999 0.991 1.000

Summer

Kalama 1990-2003 0.991 0.849 1.000

Washougal 1990-2003 0.249 0.349 0.757

Wind 1990-2003 0.659 0.538 0.989

Big Issue #1: Hatcheries

• Interim Policy: ESU’s must be naturally self sustaining

• Identified relation of hatchery stocks to ESUs

rela

tion

ship

to n

atur

al p

opul

atio

n

Substantial naturalorigin fish inbroodstock andminimaldivergence

Moderate to fewnatural origin fishin broodstock andno more thanmoderatedivergence *

substantialdivergence **

Source of hatchery stock and status of local population

source fromlocal, nativenaturalpopulation

source non-local butwithin ESU, nativelocal naturalpopulation exists

source non-local butwithin ESU, no nativelocal natural population

source non-local andpredominantly from outside ofESU

1a

2a

3a

2c

3b

1b

2b

3c

4

* moderate divergence = no more than observed between similar populations within ESU** substantial divergence = comparable to divergence observed within entire ESU*** extreme divergence = greater than divergence observed within ESU or substantial artificial selection or manipulation

NA

extreme divergence***

4 4 4 4

Hatchery Stock Categories

Key Point About Hatcheries->

Hatchery fish may be part of ESU ----

but they do not positively affect the natural self-sustainability of the ESU

Big Issue #2: Anadromous-Resident Interactions

• ESU Question – three categories– Sympatric = in ESU– Historically Allopatric = out of ESU– Recently Allopatric (i.e. Above Dams) = unknown

• Risk Question– Big Uncertainty– Anadromy essential life-history component for

long-term ESU viability

Big Issue #3: Recent High Returns

• How do recent high returns affect risk evaluation?

• What happens next time marine survivals decline?

• Long-term predictions in marine survival?

Next Steps in ESA Listing

• Policy consideration of recovery measures

• Public announcement of proposed listing this month

Technical Recovery Team Tasks

• Identify populations

• Inform recovery goals (viability criteria)

• Identify limiting factors

• Determine impact of potential recovery actions

Useful Figure?

Extinct

Current Status

Viable (delisting)

“Broad SenseRecovery”

Historic

ESA Delisting Criteria

• No longer threatened or endangered

• “Measurable and objective”

• Must relate to listed unit (e.g. ESU)

• Not necessarily the flip side of listing criteria

• Includes biological metrics of fish performance AND evaluation of threats

• Part science– part policy

Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP)

• Partition ESU into demographically independent populations

• Evaluate viability of individual populations– Abundance– Productivity– Spatial structure– Diversity

• Determine how many and which populations need to be in what status

How many and which populations?

• Catastrophic Risk

• Metapopulation Processes

• Evolutionary Processes

WLC-TRTViability Criteria

Framework

ESU Criteria

Strata Criteria

Population Persistence Probability

Population Attributes•Productivity and Abundance

•Diversity

•Habitat

•Spatial Structure

LCR Steelhead Strata

Summer Winter

Cascade 4 14

Gorge 2 3

Life History

Ecological

Zone

Within strata- How many and which populations?

• The recovery unit should have a enough populations with sufficiently high viability levels that the unit will persist.

• The populations restored/maintained at viable status should be selected to:– Allow normative metapopulation processes (include

“core” populations). – Allow normative evolutionary processes (include

“genetic legacy” populations) – Minimize susceptibility to catastrophic events.

Population Persistence Categories

Persistence Category

Description

0Very high extinction risk; extirpated

1 High extinction risk

2 Moderate extinction risk

3Low extinction risk over 100 years; VSP

4 Very low extinction risk

Strata rule set

• At least two viable populations (>= level 3)

• Average population persistence score >=2.25

Results in viability criteria proportional to historical population numbers

Current Status

0

1

2

3

4

Cowee

man

Wint

er

Lower

Cow

litz W

inter

S.F. T

outle

Wint

er

N.F. T

outle

Wint

er

Tilton

Wint

er

Upper

Cow

litz W

inter

Cispus

Wint

er

Kalam

a W

inter

N.F. L

ewis

Wint

er

E.F. L

ewis

Wint

er

Salmon

Cre

ek W

inter

Was

houg

al W

inter

Clacka

mas

Wint

er

Sandy

Wint

er

Lower

Gor

ge W

inter

Upper

Gor

ge W

inter

Hood

Wint

er

Kalam

a Sum

mer

N.F. L

ewis

Summ

er

E.F. L

ewis

Summ

er

Was

houg

al Sum

mer

Wind

Sum

mer

Hood

Summ

er

Population

Per

sist

ence

Cat

ego

ry

1.061.21 1.26

1.16

Example Viable ESU

0

1

2

3

4

Cowee

man

Wint

er

Lower

Cow

litz W

inter

S.F. T

outle

Wint

er

N.F. T

outle

Wint

er

Tilton

Wint

er

Upper

Cow

litz W

inter

Cispus

Wint

er

Kalam

a W

inter

N.F. L

ewis

Wint

er

E.F. L

ewis

Wint

er

Salmon

Cre

ek W

inter

Was

houg

al W

inter

Clacka

mas

Wint

er

Sandy

Wint

er

Lower

Gor

ge W

inter

Upper

Gor

ge W

inter

Hood

Wint

er

Kalam

a Sum

mer

N.F. L

ewis

Summ

er

E.F. L

ewis

Summ

er

Was

houg

al Sum

mer

Wind

Sum

mer

Hood

Summ

er

Population

Per

sist

ence

Cat

ego

ry

2.292.33 2.25

3.00

North Santiam Steelhead Attribute Persistence Probabilities

05

10152025303540

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Persistence Category

Cer

tain

ty P

oint

s

05

10152025303540

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Persistence Category

Cer

tain

ty P

oint

s

05

10152025303540

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Persistence Category

Cer

tain

ty P

oint

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Persitence Category

Cer

tain

ty P

oint

s

Abundance and Productivity Diversity

Habitat Spatial Structure

Conclusions

• BRT recognizes many ESUs still at risk

• Viability criteria in development

• Identifying recovery plan actions…