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STEEL PRICE FORECASTSTO 2022

European Union

December 2017

www.meps.co.uk

MEPS (International) ltd263 Glossop RoadSheffield S10 2GZ

t: 0114 275 0570f: 0114 275 9808

e: [email protected]

Steel Price Forecasts To 2022European Union

Price of report 1000

December 2017

MEPS (INTERNATIONAL) LTD263 Glossop Road, Sheffi eld,S10 2GZ, UK

Telephone: (0114) 275 0570 Fax: (0114) 275 9808

E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.meps.co.uk

Photocopying, faxing or forwarding by e-mail to a third party is strictly prohibited without the permission of MEPS (International) Ltd.

Copyright 2017by MEPS (International) LtdAll rights reserved

Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

CONTENTS

Section Page

1. Introduction 1 2. Executive Summary 2 3. Economic Overview 3 4. Steelmaking Raw Material Costs 4

5. Flat Products Steel Price Forecasts 8

6. Long Products Steel Price Forecasts 11

7. Risks 14

8. Appendix 16

9. Defi nitions 18

Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

1

Introduction

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

2

Executive Summary

524498

454467

569 574

538560 560

581

400

450

500

550

600

650

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastAll Products Composite Transaction Values, /tonne

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HERE

Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

3

Economic Overview

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - year-on-year percentage changeACTUAL FORECAST

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(e) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Eurozone ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??Germany ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??France ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??Italy ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??Spain ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??UK ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??

Source: EC, IMF, OECD, UN, World Bank & MEPS

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

4

Steelmaking Raw Material Costs

US$/tonne

Iron Ore Fines Coking Coal Ferrous ScrapAustralia 62-63% Fe Brazil 64% Fe

Australia FOB HMS1 (E3)FOB CFR China FOB CFR China

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017(e) ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2015

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

COMM

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

5

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - Iron Ore Fines, BrazilFe 64%, FOB, US$/tonne

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GRAP

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

6

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - Coking Coal, Australia, FOB QueenslandUS$/tonne

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GRAP

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

7

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - HMS1 / E3, European Union US$/tonne

COMM

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GRAP

H

HERE

Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

8

Flat Products Steel Price Forecasts

European Union - Flat Products

/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped GalvanisedFlat Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

643 808 634 713 679

670 851 662 757 713

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

COMM

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

9

400

450

500

550

600

650

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastHot Rolled Plate Transaction Values, /tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastHot Rolled Coil Transaction Values, /tonne

COMM

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RY HE

RE

GRAP

H

HERE

GRAP

H

HERE

Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

10

400

450

500

550

600

650

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastFlat Products Composite Transaction Values, /tonne

450

500

550

600

650

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastCold Rolled Coil Transaction Values, /tonne

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastHot Dipped Galvanised Coil Transaction Values, /tonne

GRAP

H

HERE

GRAP

H

HERE

GRAP

H

HERE

Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

11

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

European Union - Long Products

/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)Medium

Sections & Beams

Rebar Merchant Bar Long Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

643 808 634 713 679

670 851 662 757 713

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Long Products Steel Price Forecasts

COMM

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Copyright 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - Euro