STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2022 - MEPS Steel Price... · STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2022 European Union...

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STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2022 European Union December 2017 www.meps.co.uk MEPS (International) ltd 263 Glossop Road Sheffield S10 2GZ t: 0114 275 0570 f: 0114 275 9808 e: [email protected]

Transcript of STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2022 - MEPS Steel Price... · STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2022 European Union...

STEEL PRICE FORECASTS

TO 2022

European Union

December 2017

www.meps.co.uk

MEPS (International) ltd

263 Glossop Road

Sheffield S10 2GZ

t: 0114 275 0570

f: 0114 275 9808

e: [email protected]

Steel Price Forecasts To 2022European Union

Price of report £1000

December 2017

MEPS (INTERNATIONAL) LTD263 Glossop Road, Sheffi eld,S10 2GZ, UK

Telephone: (0114) 275 0570 Fax: (0114) 275 9808

E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.meps.co.uk

Photocopying, faxing or forwarding by e-mail to a third party is strictly prohibited without the permission of MEPS (International) Ltd.

Copyright © 2017by MEPS (International) LtdAll rights reserved

Copyright © 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

CONTENTS

Section Page

1. Introduction 1 2. Executive Summary 2 3. Economic Overview 3 4. Steelmaking Raw Material Costs 4

5. Flat Products Steel Price Forecasts 8

6. Long Products Steel Price Forecasts 11

7. Risks 14

8. Appendix 16

9. Defi nitions 18

Copyright © 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

1

Introduction

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

2

Executive Summary

524498

454467

569 574

538560 560

581

400

450

500

550

600

650

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastAll Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

3

Economic Overview

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - year-on-year percentage changeACTUAL FORECAST

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(e) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Eurozone ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??Germany ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??France ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??Italy ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??Spain ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??UK ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??

Source: EC, IMF, OECD, UN, World Bank & MEPS

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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4

Steelmaking Raw Material Costs

US$/tonne

Iron Ore Fines Coking Coal Ferrous Scrap

Australia 62-63% Fe Brazil 64% FeAustralia FOB HMS1 (E3)

FOB CFR China FOB CFR China

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017(e) ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2015

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

5

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - Iron Ore Fines, BrazilFe 64%, FOB, US$/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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6

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - Coking Coal, Australia, FOB QueenslandUS$/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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7

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - HMS1 / E3, European Union US$/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

8

Flat Products Steel Price Forecasts

European Union - Flat Products

€/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped Galvanised

Flat Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???643 808 634 713 679

670 851 662 757 713

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

9

400

450

500

550

600

650

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastHot Rolled Plate Transaction Values, €/tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastHot Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

GRAPH

HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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10

400

450

500

550

600

650

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastFlat Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

450

500

550

600

650

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastCold Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastHot Dipped Galvanised Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

GRAPH

HERE

GRAPH

HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

11

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

European Union - Long Products

€/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)

Medium Sections &

BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???643 808 634 713 679

670 851 662 757 713

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Long Products Steel Price Forecasts

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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12

350

400

450

500

550

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastWire Rod (Mesh) Transaction Values, €/tonne

500

550

600

650

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastMedium Sections & Beams Transaction Values, €/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

GRAPH

HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

13

350

400

450

500

550

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastRebar Transaction Values, €/tonne

400

450

500

550

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastMerchant Bar Transaction Values, €/tonne

400

450

500

550

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU Average Carbon Steel Price ForecastLong Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

GRAPH

HERE

GRAPH

HERE

GRAPH

HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

14

Risks

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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15

COMMENTARY HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

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16

Appendix

Forecast Data - US$/Tonne Long Term Annual Forecast - Flat Products Long Term Annual Forecast - Long Products

Copyright © 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

17

Annual Forecasts - US Dollar Values

European Union - Flat Products

US$/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped Galvanised

Flat Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???643 808 634 713 679

670 851 662 757 713

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

European Union - Long Products

US$/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)

Medium Sections &

BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???643 808 634 713 679

670 851 662 757 713

FOR

ECA

ST

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2019 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2020 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2021 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2022 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.839 Euros per 1 US Dollar, for the forecast period 2018-2022.

Copyright © 2017

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2022 - European Union December 2017

Copyright © 2017 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

18

Defi nitions

Transaction prices are the realised values obtained by the mills for the cheapest grade of steel in the size range specifi ed for each product. These are determined by adding the relevant size extras to the negotiated ex-mill basis price for the selected product.

Transaction values relate to those paid by consumers and stockholders for prime material. The prices are for regular business between customers and their local steel mills, negotiated during the current month for delivery in the future. Delivery charges and local taxes are not included in the quoted prices. Contract deals arranged in the domestic market, or deals for lots of imported steel, are specifi cally excluded from our price evaluation.

• Hot Rolled Coil - 2-3mm thickness, width over 1.1 metres.• Hot Rolled Plate - 15-40mm thickness, width over 2.0 metres.• Cold Rolled Coil - 1mm thickness, width over 1.3 metres. • Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil - 1mm thickness, width over 1.1 metres, coating thickness

275gm/m².• Wire Rod (Mesh Quality) - 8-12mm diameter.• Medium Sections and Beams - 240 x 240mm H Beam.• Reinforcing Bar (Deformed) - 16-20mm diameter.• Merchant Bar - 50 x 50 x 6mm equal angle.

EU AveragePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values identifi ed in Germany, France, Italy, UK and Spain, collected in national currencies and converted into euros using currency exchange rates effective at the start of each month to provide a basis for comparison.

Flat Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for hot rolled coil and plate, cold rolled coil and hot dipped coated coil.

Long Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for wire rod, structural sections, reinforcing bar and merchant bar.

All Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for all carbon steel products in the fl at and long categories.

DisclaimerAll price and market data is researched by MEPS staff and our local correspondents. The information has been obtained from respondents who we consider provide accurate intelligence on the steel market. We make our best endeavours to be assured that the information is correct and that our analysis is reliable. MEPS (International) Ltd cannot be made liable for any loss resulting from the use of our published data, however it may arise.