STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2018 - MEPS … - EU example.pdf · Historic EU27 Steel Price, ... Real...

35
STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2018 EUROPEAN UNION July 2014 www.meps.co.uk MEPS (International) ltd 263 Glossop Road Sheffield S10 2GZ t: 0114 275 0570 f: 0114 275 9808 e: [email protected]

Transcript of STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2018 - MEPS … - EU example.pdf · Historic EU27 Steel Price, ... Real...

STEEL PRICE FORECASTS

TO 2018

EUROPEAN UNION

July 2014

www.meps.co.uk

MEPS (International) ltd

263 Glossop Road

Sheffield S10 2GZ

t: 0114 275 0570

f: 0114 275 9808

e: [email protected]

STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2018EUROPEAN UNION

Price of report £975.00

July 2014

MEPS (INTERNATIONAL) LTD263 Glossop Road, Sheffi eld,S10 2GZ, UK

Telephone: (0114) 275 0570 Fax: (0114) 275 9808

E-mail: [email protected] Web Site: http://www.meps.co.uk

Photocopying, faxing or forwarding by e-mail to a third party is strictly prohibited without the permission of MEPS (International) Ltd.

Copyright © 2014by MEPS (International) LtdAll rights reserved

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

1. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1 2. BACKGROUND 3 3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

4. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 5 5. LONG TERM ANNUAL FORECASTS 10 6. STEELMAKING RAW MATERIAL COSTS 17

7. MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS 20

8. RISKS 26

9. APPENDIX 28

10. DEFINITIONS 32

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1

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

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2

THE REPORT

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3

BACKGROUND

70.0

90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

170.0

190.0

210.0

230.0

Historic EU27 Steel Price, Production and Economic IndicatorsIndex, 1993 = 100

EU27 GDP EU27 IP EU27 Crude EU5 AP Price €Linear (EU27 GDP) Linear (EU27 IP) Linear (EU27 Crude) Linear (EU5 AP Price €)

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4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

70.0

90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

170.0

190.0

210.0

230.0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EU27 Steel Price, Production and Economic IndicatorsIndex, 1993 = 100

EU27 GDP EU27 IP EU27 Crude EU5 AP Price €

Linear (EU27 GDP) Linear (EU27 IP) Linear (EU27 Crude) Linear (EU5 AP Price €)

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5

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

EU REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

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6

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7

Real GDP (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS

Industrial Production (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, OE, MEPS

Private Consumption (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS

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8

Public Consumption (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS

Consumer Price Infl ation (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, IMF, OE, World Bank, MEPS

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9

Short-Term Interest RatesACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Canada ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???China ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???India ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Japan ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???South Korea ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Taiwan ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???USA ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: OE, OECD, MEPS

Unemployment Rate (percentage)ACTUAL FORECAST

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Source: CE, OE, MEPS

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10

LONG TERM ANNUAL FORECASTS

ANNUAL AVERAGE ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE STEEL PRICE FORECAST

431

557

612569

524502 514 533 527 533

350

550

750

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTAll Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

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11

ANNUAL AVERAGE FLAT PRODUCTS STEEL PRICE FORECAST

European Union - Flat Products

€/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped Galvanised

Flat Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710

681 746 784 851 760

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

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12

350

400

450

500

550

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTFlat Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

COMMENTARY HERE

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13

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Dipped Galvanised Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Plate Transaction Values, €/tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTCold Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

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14

ANNUAL AVERAGE LONG PRODUCTS STEEL PRICE FORECAST

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

European Union - Long Products

€/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)

Medium Sections &

BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710

681 746 784 851 760

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

COMMENTARY HERE

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15

350

400

450

500

550

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTLong Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTWire Rod (Mesh) Transaction Values, €/tonne

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16

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMedium Sections & Beams Transaction Values, €/tonne

300

350

400

450

500

550

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTRebar Transaction Values, €/tonne

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMerchant Bar Transaction Values, €/tonne

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17

STEELMAKING RAW MATERIAL COSTS

European Union

$US/tonne Brazil Iron Ore Fines

AC

TUA

L 2010 ???

2011 ???

2012 ???

2013 ???2014 110

2015 106

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ???

2015 ???

2016 ???

2017 ???

2018 ???

STEEL SCRAP

European Union

$US/tonne EU Coking Coal

AC

TUA

L 2010 ???

2011 ???

2012 ???

2013 ???2014 110

2015 106

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ???

2015 ???

2016 ???

2017 ???

2018 ???

European Union

$US/tonne EU HMS1 (E3)

AC

TUA

L 2010 ???

2011 ???

2012 ???

2013 ???2014 110

2015 106

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ???

2015 ???

2016 ???

2017 ???

2018 ???

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - HMS1 / E3, EUROPEAN UNION $US/tonne

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18

IRON ORE

8090

100110120130140150160170

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - IRON ORE FINES, BRAZILFe 64%, fob, $US/tonne

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19

COKING COAL

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual Forecast

MEPS - COKING COAL, EUROPEAN UNION$US/tonne

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20

MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS - FLAT PRODUCTS

European Union

€/tonne Hot Rolled Coil

Hot Rolled Plate

Cold Rolled Coil

Hot Dipped Galvanised

Flat Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

FOR

ECA

ST

Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

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21

450470490510530550570590610630650

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTFlat Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Plate Transaction Values, €/tonne

GRAPH HERE

GRAPH HERE

GRAPH HERE

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

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22

450470490510530550570590610630650

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTCold Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

450

500

550

600

650

700

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Dipped Galvanised Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne

GRAPH HERE

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23

MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS - LONG PRODUCTS

European Union

€/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)

Medium Sections &

BeamsRebar Merchant

BarLong Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

FOR

ECA

ST

Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values

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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

24

400420440460480500520540560580600

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTLong Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne

350

400

450

500

550

600

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTWire Rod (Mesh) Transaction Values, €/tonne

450

500

550

600

650

700

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMedium Sections & Beams Transaction Values, €/tonne

GRAPH HERE

GRAPH HERE

GRAPH HERE

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

25

350

400

450

500

550

600

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTRebar Transaction Values, €/tonne

400

450

500

550

600

650

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

Q1/

15

Q2/

15

Q3/

15

Q4/

15

Q1/

16

Q2/

16

Q3/

16

Q4/

16

Actual Forecast

MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMerchant Bar Transaction Values, €/tonne

GRAPH HERE

GRAPH HERE

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

26

RISKS

COMMENTARY HERE

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

27

COMMENTARY HERE

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

28

APPENDIX

FORECAST DATA - $US/TONNE Long Term Annual Forecast - Flat Products Long Term Annual Forecast - Long Products Medium Term Forecast - Flat Products Medium Term Forecast - Long Products

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

29

ANNUAL FORECASTS - US DOLLAR VALUES

European Union - Flat Products

$US/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped Galvanised

Flat Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710

681 746 784 851 760

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

European Union - Long Products

$US/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)

Medium Sections &

BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710

681 746 784 851 760

FOR

ECA

ST

2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.

Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.764 Euros per US Dollar

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

30

European Union

$US/tonne Hot Rolled Coil

Hot Rolled Plate

Cold Rolled Coil

Hot Dipped Galvanised

Flat Products Composite

AC

TUA

L

Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

FOR

ECA

ST

Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.

Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.764 Euros per US Dollar

FLAT PRODUCTS - US DOLLAR VALUES

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

31

European Union

$US/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)

Medium Sections &

BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products

Composite

AC

TUA

L

Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

FOR

ECA

ST

Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

LONG PRODUCTS - US DOLLAR VALUES

Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.

Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.764 Euros per US Dollar

Copyright © 2014

MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014

Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.

32

DEFINITIONS

Quarterly and annual transactions prices are the realised values obtained by the mills for the cheapest grade of steel in the size range specifi ed for each product. These are determined by adding the relevant size extras to the negotiated ex-mill basis price for the selected product.

Transaction values relate to those paid by consumers and stockholders for prime material. The prices are for regular business between customers and their local steel mills, negotiated during the current month for delivery in the future. Delivery charges and local taxes are not included in the quoted prices. Contract deals arranged in the domestic market, or deals for lots of imported steel, are specifi cally excluded from our price evaluation.

• Hot-Rolled Wide Coil - 2-3mm thickness, width over 1.1 metres.• Hot-Rolled Plates - 15-40mm thickness, width over 2.0 metres.• Cold-Rolled Coils - 1mm thickness, width over 1.3 metres. • Hot Dipped Galvanised Coils - 1mm thickness, width over 1.1 metres, coating thickness 275gm/m²• Wire Rod (Mesh Quality) - 8-12mm diameter.• Medium Sections and Beams - 240 x 240mm H Beam.• Reinforcing Bar (Deformed) - 16-20mm diameter - high yield.• Merchant Bar - 50 x 50 x 6mm equal angle.

EU AveragePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values identifi ed in Germany, France, Italy, UK and Spain, collected in national currencies and converted into euros using currency exchange rates effective at the start of each month to provide a basis for comparison.

Flat Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for hot rolled coil and plate, cold rolled coil and hot dipped coated coil.

Long Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for wire rod, structural sections, reinforcing bar and merchant bar.

All Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for all carbon steel products in the fl at and long categories.

Raw MaterialsIron Ore - Brazilian Fines Fe 64% FOBCoking Coal - EU ex-works parity quarterly contract priceScrap - EU HMS1 (E3) average price in France, Germany, Italy and Spain

DisclaimerAll price and market data is researched by MEPS staff and our local correspondents. The information has been obtained from respondents who we consider provide accurate intelligence on the steel market. We make our best endeavours to be assured that the information is correct and that our analysis is reliable. MEPS (International) Ltd cannot be made liable for any loss resulting from the use of our published data, however it may arise.