Steel – Global Impacts to North American Minimill Competitiveness Thomas A. Danjczek, President...
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Steel – Global Impacts to North American Minimill Competitiveness Thomas A. Danjczek, President Steel Manufacturers Association March 20, 2007 SBB Steel Markets 2007
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Transcript of Steel – Global Impacts to North American Minimill Competitiveness Thomas A. Danjczek, President...
Steel – Global Impacts to North American Minimill Competitiveness
Thomas A. Danjczek, PresidentSteel Manufacturers AssociationMarch 20, 2007
SBB Steel Markets 2007
In March 2007, The Times they are a’changing…
SBB Steel MarketsNorth America 2007
Steel DemandFluctuating
EnergyCosts
World Steel Growth
Non-ProductionCosts
China’sSubsidies
U.S. GovernmentDebt
Perennial Problems
Consolidations
Investor’s Views
DemocraticCongress
59% EAF in U.S.
Greenhouse Gases
China’s SteelGrowth
Trade Imbalance
Scrap Costs
Service CenterInventories
Down Slightly
SBB Steel Markets 2007 Investor’s View
Summarized from Aldo Mazzaferro’s, Goldman Sachs, Presentation to SMA Board of Directors,
2/16/07:
• Sustainability is key
• Discipline = Confidence = Higher Valuations (Investors fear volatility and surprises from rapidly changing prices, supply swings, unpredictable earnings)
• Key questions going forward:
-Will discipline hold long-term, and will it be global?
-Will higher U.S. prices trigger large import response?
-What are the long-term risks from of increased capacity in other markets?
-Will China’s production continue to expand its supply over demand?
Scrap Demand
Source: DJJ, 2/07
SBB Steel Markets 2007
EAFs have grown to 59% of U.S. steel production.
Excess Burden of Structural Non-Production Costs on
U.S. Manufacturers Relative to Major TradingPartners, 2005
(U.S. dollars per hour worked)
Source: Jeremy A. Leonard, The Escalating Cost Crisis, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI and NAM, 2006
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
United States Industrializedpartners
Middle-incomepartners
Mexico China
natural gasprices ($0.17)
tort litigation($0.92)
regulatorycompliance($1.31)employeebenefits ($1.75)
corporate taxburden ($1.97)
raw cost index
natural gas prices ($0.17)
SBB Steel Markets 2007
SBB Steel Markets 2007
CHINA!
SBB Steel Markets 2007
China Facts
-China trade surplus swelled to $177 billion in 2006 – up 74% over 2005
-China trade surplus in 2001 (WTO joining year) was $22 billion
-China currency has only changed by 5.9% since July 2005
SBB Steel Markets 2007
China Facts, cont.
$7.5 billion in debt-to-equityswaps in 2000
An additional $6 billion in
announced subsidiesduring 2000
2005 steel policycommits China
to further subsidies,micromanagement
Support from localand provincialgovernmentsuncontrolled
by central government
State-owned enterprisesaccount for
57 percent of total Chinese production
Chinese steelmakersregularly obtain
preferential loansfrom state-owned
banks
Manipulation of keyraw materials
markets, includingcoke and ferroalloys
China Has the Most Heavily Subsidized Steel Industry in the World
Chinese steel producersenjoy government
assistance with energyand other input costs
Inadequate protectionof workers’ rights and
enforcement of environmental
standards
China Facts, cont.SBB Steel Markets 2007
SBB Steel Markets 2007
China Facts, cont.
Within the Last Year, U.S Producers Have Been Hit with a Flood of Chinese Imports
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2006
tho
usa
nd
s o
f N
T
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Corrosion-Resis tant OCTG Cold-Rolled
tho
usa
nd
s o
f N
T
2005 2006
Total U.S. Imports from China U.S. Imports of Critical High-Value Products
Source: AISI and IM-145 data
China Facts, cont.SBB Steel Markets 2007
SBB Steel Markets 2007
Aggressive Policy Measures Are Necessary to Prevent China from Causing a Major Crisis
• Enact real China legislation (apply CVD law to China, address currency manipulation, WTO reform)
• Strict enforcement of U.S. AD/CVD laws (appearance at HR hearing, letters, Congressional hearings)
• Make clear that Congress will not accept any new agreements (Doha, Korea FTA, etc.) with trade law weakening
SBB Steel Markets 2007
But, It’s Not China Alone
SBB Steel Markets 2007
Greenhouse Global Gases
-Effective Climate Change Policies must promote low carbon intensive technologies
-Cap & Trade programs are a failure due to demand destruction (Ask the EU guys!)
-Making steel in countries not subject to greenhouse global gas program is NOT a solution. Global problems require global solutions.
SBB Steel Markets 2007
Conclusion
-Need aggressive policy measures to prevent China from causing a major crisis
-It’s still a cyclical business (percent utilization, scrap, inventories, etc.)
-Still no Global Subsidies Agreement – massive subsidized growth continues
-Greenhouse global gases require a global solution!
-When will inventories return to normal levels?
-Consolidation will continue
-China! China! China! (everything else is only an embellishment)
-Unknowns (interest rates, housing starts, economic growth, imports, customer base, pricing???)
