Steady Performance Despite Tough Market Condition

Hindustan UnileverFMCG | India

Institutional Equity Research

1QFY20 Result Update | July 24, 2019

1

BUYTarget Price: Rs1,950

CMP* (Rs) 1,693

Upside/ (Downside) (%) 19

Bloomberg Ticker HUVR IN

Market Cap. (Rs bn) 3,666

Free Float (%) 33

Shares O/S (mn) 2165

Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth

Absolute performance (3.6) (2.4) 1.5

Relative to Nifty 0.4 1.2 (0.7)

Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun'19 Mar'19

Promoter 67.2 67.2

Public 32.8 32.8

Steady Performance Despite Tough Market Condition

Notwithstanding higher YoY base and consumption slowdown, Hindustan Unilever (HUVR) has reported broadly an in-line performance in 1QFY20 led by focus on strengthening core brands, innovation and premiumisation strategy. Whilst the Management acknowledged sequential moderation in growth, it continues ‘Wait-n-Watch’ stance on demand scenario in the absence of any near-term demand triggers. As HUVR expects growth to pick-up pace in 2HFY20, we marginally trim our revenues for FY20E/FY21E to factor in muted performance in 1HFY20. However, we marginally upgrade our earnings estimate for FY20E led by benign raw material cost, lower competitive intensity and continued efforts on cost savings, while trim our FY21E earnings estimate on the back of limited room for further savings. Maintaining our positive stance on HUVR’s ability to grow ahead of the market in long-term due to organic and inorganic triggers, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,950 (from Rs2,020 earlier), based on PE multiple of 48x FY21E.

Steady Revenue Growth on Healthy Volume HUVR reported 6.6% YoY growth in total revenue (including other operating income) to Rs101.1bn, marginally missing our estimate of Rs103.5bn. Domestic revenue growth was led by 5% YoY volume growth and 2% YoY pricing growth (again marginally lower than our estimate of 6% YoY volume growth and 3% YoY underlying pricing growth).

Homecare Segment Drives Quarterly Performance Homecare segment and Personal care segment – which jointly contribute 79.6% to total segmental revenue – grew by 10.1% YoY & 4.1% YoY, respectively. Notably, Homecare segment continued its double-digit growth trajectory for the 4th consecutive quarter, driven by innovations and relaunches across product categories. Further, growth in personal care segment was affected by personal wash category, which witnessed muted growth in popular segment. However, Skin and Hair care segment witnessed broad-based growth across brands. Food & Refreshments segment grew by 9% YoY driven by seasonally strong quarter for Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts categories.

Improved EBITDA on Lower A&P Spend HUVR’s gross profits grew by 6.9% YoY leaving gross margin flat at 53.4%, in-line with our estimate. EBITDA – adjusted for IND AS 116 accounting benefits – grew by 13% YoY to Rs25.4bn (in-line with our estimate of Rs25.3bn). Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 142bps to 25.5%, marginally surpassing our estimate of 24.8%. Notably, lower competitive intensity led to controlled A&P spend during the quarter. Ability to manage volatility in cost along with improved product-mix and operating leverage aided HUVR’s margin. Its reported EBITDA margin expanded by ~100bps led by the benefits of IND AS116 accounting.

Adjusted PAT Remains Broadly In-lineHUVR’s reported PAT grew by 14.8% YoY to Rs17.55bn. Notably, it reported net exceptional gains to the tune of Rs70mn due to sale of surplus land (Rs210mn gain) and loss due to restructuring and other acquisition related cost (Rs140mn loss). Hence, its PAT – adjusted for exceptional items – grew by 12% YoY to Rs17.5bn, in-line with our estimate of Rs17.4bn.

Outlook & Valuation – Maintain BUY; But FY21 Earning Estimate TrimmedAs the Company expects growth to pick-up pace in 2HFY20, we marginally trim our revenue estimate by 3%/4% for FY20E/FY21E to factor in weak performance in 1HFY20E. We tweak our EBITDA/PAT estimate by +2.5%/+2.5% for FY20E factoring heathy operational performance in 1QFY20 and revise our FY21E EBITDA/PAT estimate by -2.6%/-2.6% due to limited room for further cost savings going ahead. We believe HUVR’s outperformance is sustainable, as the demand scenario bottoms out and picks-up cyclically. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock, valuing it at 48x of FY21E earnings at Rs1,950.

1 Year Stock Price Performance

Note: * CMP as on July 23, 2019

Naveen Kulkarni Head of ResearchContact : (022) 3303 4660 Email : [email protected]

Priyank ChhedaResearch AnalystContact: 022 3303 4625 Email: [email protected]

Key Financials

(Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 3,82,280 4,12,862 5,14,348EBIDTA 93,050 1,04,139 1,40,347Net Profit 62,633 70,371 95,395EPS, Rs 28.9 32.5 40.7 PER, x 58.6 52.2 41.6 EV/EBIDTA, x 38.8 34.6 27.4 P/BV, x 41.4 34.2 25.4 ROE, % 71 66 61

Change of Estimates (% Change) FY20E FY21E

Net Sales (2.7) (4.3)

EBITDA 2.4 (2.5)

Adj PAT 2.5 (2.6)

Adj EPS (Rs) 2.5 (2.6)

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CMP* (Rs) 1,693



Conference Call – Key Highlights ‘Wait & Watch’ Stance on Demand Scenario: Though the Company saw sequential growth moderation in 1QFY20, it didn’t see any sharp deceleration at the end on month. Rural (30-35% of revenue) growth rates have moderated and are now at par with urban growth rates. Though the near-term demand scenario remains subdued, the Management expects improvement from 2HFY20 onwards led by: (1) Government thrust on rural growth (taking cues from Budget initiatives); (2) expected easing in liquidity scenario; and (3) likely pick-up in monsoon. Though the Management does not expect any structural demand slowdown, it also does not envisage any near-term triggers for meaningful pick-up in demand.

Key Performance Drivers: (1) Focus on core brands and innovation; (2) driving premiumization further; (3) sharp execution; and (4) building digital capabilities across value chain.

Margin Expands on Benign Cost Scenario & Better Product-mix: HUVR’s gross margin in BPC category expanded led by benign commodity cost, better product-mix and innovations. At the same time, Homecare segment saw lower quarterly investments on brands.

Lower A&P Spend on Lower Competitive Intensity: The Company saw savings on A&P spend in traditional channels mainly due to lower competitive intensity. However, general competitiveness in modern trade (15-17% contribution to revenues to HUVR) remains higher along with higher growth opportunities. Notably, competitive intensity has come down across segments mainly from the unorganised players, who are witnessing pinch of salt due to tight liquidity scenario.

Volume-led Growth in Homecare Segment: The segment saw various new launches and relaunches. The Company sees huge opportunity in Liquid wash category, which is important for gaining benefit from urbanisation and premiumisation. Liquid wash category has been accretive in terms of growth and margin. The Company continued to focus on premium purifiers and redefined ‘Go-to-market’ strategy in the category.

Beauty & Personal Care (BPC) – Mixed Performance: Soaps category saw lower raw material cost. Despite passing on the benefits of lower raw material cost, it didn’t see any meaningful up-tick in volume, particularly in popular soap segment. Lux and Lifebuoy continued to disappoint with category witnessing slowdown. HUVR undertook 4-5% price reduction in Lux and Lifebuoy to reposition with right value proposition and to pass-on the benefits of lower raw material cost. Palm oil prices declined by 15-20% YoY during the quarter. The Company saw double-digit growth in colour cosmetics. Closeup and Lever Ayush brands continued to maintain momentum in oral care segment. HUVR is working on improving value proposition for Pepsodent.

F&R – Seasonally Strong: Beverages volume saw consistent growth across brands and markets. Ice Cream and frozen desserts had seasonally strong quarter.

CSD channel – No Predictable Pattern Witnessed: Though the Company saw demand up=tick during the quarter along with moderation towards the end of the quarter, the Management is keeping close watch on elongated receivables.

Update on GSK Merger: HUVR received shareholders’ approval for merger of GSK Consumer with itself. Next NCLT hearing is scheduled on 1st September. The Management expects to complete the merger by 2019-end.



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CMP* (Rs) 1,693



Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance

(Rs mn) 1QFY20 4QFY19 QoQ (%) 1QFY19 YoY (%)

Volume growth (% yoy) 5.0 7.0 12.0

Price growth (%yoy) 2.0 2.0 4.0

Net Sales 99,840 98,090 1.8 93,560 6.7

Gross Profits 53,360 50,660 5.3 49,920 6.9

Gross Margin (%) 53.4 51.6 53.4

Staff costs 4,520 4,020 12.4 4,420 2.3

Ad spends 11,610 11,070 4.9 11,530 0.7

Other operating expenses 12,060 13,720 (12.1) 12,770 (5.6)

Adj EBITDA 25,436 23,200 9.6 22,510 13.0

Adj EBITDA margin (%) 25.5 23.7 24.1

Reported PBT 25,630 22,260 15.1 21,930 16.9

Tax rate (%) 31.5 31.0 30.3

Reported PAT 17,550 15,370 14.2 15,290 14.8

Adj. PAT (for exceptional) 17,510 15,900 10.1 15,670 11.7

Source: Company, RSec Research

Exhibit 2: Segment Performance

(Rs mn) Q1FY20 Q4FY19 QoQ % Q1FY18 YoY %

Revenue (Rs mn)

Home Care 34,650 35,020 (1.1) 31,460 10.1

Personal Care 45,890 43,930 4.5 44,070 4.1

Foods & Refreshment 19,500 19,160 1.8 17,850 9.2

Others (includes chemicals agri plantations)

1,100 1,340 (17.9) 1,490 (26.2)

Total segment revenue 1,01,140 99,450 1.7 94,870 6.6

Segment results (Rs mn)

Home Care 6,990 6,190 12.9 6,020 16.1

Personal Care 13,580 12,200 11.3 11,620 16.9

Foods & Refreshments 3,790 3,460 9.5 3,340 13.5


20 20 - (20) (200.0)

Total segment results 24,380 21,870 11.5 20,960 16.3

Segment margins %

Home Care 20.2 17.7 19.1

Personal Care 29.6 27.8 26.4

Foods & Reffreshment 19.4 18.1 18.7


1.8 1.5 (1.3)

Total segment results 24.1 22.0 22.1




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CMP* (Rs) 1,693



Exhibit 3: Quarterly performance vs. our expectations

Hindustan Unilever Q1FY20 Reliance Estimates

Reliance Deviation

Q4FY19 QoQ (%) Q1FY19 YoY%

Volume Growth YoY % 5.0 6.0 7.0 12.0

Price Growth YoY % 2.0 3.0 2.0 4.0

Revenues 99,840 1,02,149 -2.3% 98,090 1.8% 93,560 6.7%

Gross Profit 53,360 54,503 50,660 5.3% 49,920 6.9%

Gross Margin % 53.4 53.4 51.6 53.4

Advertising Expenses 11,610 12,107 11,070 4.9% 11,530 0.7%

Ad to Sales Ratio % 11.6 11.9 11.3 12.3

Adjusted EBITDA 25,436 25,352 0.3% 23,200 9.6% 22,510 13.0%

Adj EBITDA Margin % 25.5 24.8 23.7 24.1

Reported PAT 17,550 17,457 15,370 15,290 14.8%

Adjusted PAT 17,510 17,457 0.3% 15,900 10.1% 15,670 11.7%

Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 8.1 8.1 7.35 10.1% 7.2 11.7%


Exhibit 4: Volume growth has moderated for last two quarters.


Exhibit 5: Company has been able to deliver average 6.4% volume growth in the long run


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Exhibit 6: Company has demonstrated to take average 4% price hike in the long run


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CMP* (Rs) 1,693



Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net sales 3,55,450 3,82,280 4,12,862 5,14,348

Growth, % 7.2 7.5 8.0 24.6

Other income 3,840 6,640 4,646 8,652

Total income 3,59,290 3,88,920 4,17,509 5,23,000

Raw material expenses (1,67,300) (1,79,600) (1,90,376) (2,24,847)

Employee expenses (18,600) (17,470) (18,344) (19,261)

Other Operating expenses (94,560) (98,800) (1,04,650) (1,38,545)

EBITDA (Core) 78,830 93,050 1,04,139 1,40,347

Growth, % 17.5 18.0 11.9 34.8

Margin, % 22.2 24.3 25.2 27.3

Depreciation (5,198) (5,237) (5,498) (6,707)

EBIT 73,632 87,813 98,641 1,33,641

Growth, % 17.3 19.3 12.3 35.5

Margin, % 20.7 23.0 23.9 26.0

Interest paid (260) (280) (294) (321)

Pre-tax profit 73,155 87,533 98,347 1,33,320

Tax provided (20,790) (24,900) (27,976) (37,925)

Profit after tax 52,365 62,633 70,371 95,395

Net Profit 52,365 62,633 70,371 95,395

Growth, % 21.3 19.1 12.4 35.6

Net Profit (adjusted) 52,582 62,633 70,371 95,395

Unadj. shares (m) 2,168 2,168 2,168 2,346

Wtd avg shares (m) 2,168 2,168 2,168 2,346



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CMP* (Rs) 1,693



Balance Sheet

As at 31st Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Cash & bank 34,850 60,039 66,373 1,23,874

Debtors 13,100 14,751 16,360 17,127

Inventory 25,130 24,592 24,910 25,255

Loans & advances 1,840 1,840 1,840 1,840

Other current assets 6,720 6,720 6,720 6,720

Total current assets 81,640 1,07,942 1,16,202 1,74,816

Investments 28,730 28,730 28,730 28,730

Gross fixed assets 57,520 63,020 69,520 76,520

Less: Depreciation -13,530 -18,770 -24,272 -30,983

Add: Capital WIP 4,610 4,610 4,610 4,610

Net fixed assets 48,600 48,860 49,858 50,147

Non-current assets 8,994 8,994 8,994 8,994

Total assets 1,71,754 1,98,316 2,07,574 2,66,477

Current liabilities 70,586 79,279 66,355 75,766

Provisions 29,444 30,754 34,270 34,922

Total current liabilities 1,00,030 1,10,033 1,00,625 1,10,688

Total liabilities 98,940 1,09,553 1,00,275 1,10,286

Paid-up capital 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,346

Reserves & surplus 70,650 86,599 1,05,135 1,53,846

Shareholders’ equity 72,814 88,763 1,07,299 1,56,192

Total equity & liabilities 1,71,754 1,98,316 2,07,574 2,66,477



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Cash Flow Statement

Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Pre-tax profit 73,155 87,533 98,347 1,33,320

Depreciation 5,198 5,237 5,498 6,707

Chg in working capital (19,214) 8,191 (14,721) 8,246

Total tax paid (16,136) (23,586) (26,624) (35,109)

Cash flow from operating activities 43,003 77,375 62,501 1,13,163

Capital expenditure (8,128) (5,497) (6,496) (6,996)

Cash flow from investing activities 1,082 -5,497 -6,496 -6,996

Free cash flow 44,085 71,878 56,005 1,06,167

Dividend (incl. tax) (27,290) (46,356) (49,337) (48,515)

Cash flow from financing activities (27,270) (46,356) (49,337) (48,333)

Net chg in cash 16,815 25,522 6,668 57,835

Key Ratio

Y/E Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Per Share data

EPS (INR) 24.3 28.9 32.5 40.7

Growth, % 21.3 19.1 12.4 25.3

Book NAV/share (INR) 33.6 40.9 49.5 66.6

FDEPS (INR) 24.3 28.9 32.5 40.7

CEPS (INR) 26.7 31.3 35.0 43.5

CFPS (INR) 21.5 35.7 28.8 48.2

DPS (INR) 18.0 18.0 20.0 16.6

Return ratios

Return on assets (%) 32.5 33.9 34.8 40.3

Return on equity (%) 72.2 70.6 65.6 61.1

Return on capital employed (%) 75.8 78.5 72.3 72.8

Turnover ratios

Asset turnover (x) 21.4 17.4 16.0 17.3

Sales/Total assets (x) 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2

Sales/Net FA (x) 7.5 7.8 8.4 10.3

Working capital/Sales (x) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1)

Working capital days (54.7) (59.3) (44.9) (42.4)

Liquidity ratios

Current ratio (x) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6

Quick ratio (x) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4

Interest cover (x) 283.2 313.6 335.5 416.4

Dividend cover (x)

Net debt/Equity (%) (47.9) (67.6) (61.9) (79.3)

Valuation

PER (x) 69.8 58.6 52.2 41.6

Price/Book (x) 50.4 41.4 34.2 25.4

EV/Net sales (x) 10.2 9.4 8.7 7.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 46.1 38.8 34.6 27.4

EV/EBIT (x) 49.4 41.1 36.5 28.8



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RSL CIN: U65990MH2005PLC154052. SEBI registration no. ( Stock Brokers: NSE - INB / INF / INE 231234833; BSE - INB / INF / INE 011234839, Depository Participants: CDSL IN-DP-257-2016 IN-DP-NSDL-363-2013, Research Analyst: INH000002384); AMFI ARN No.29889.

Rating GuidesRating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months

BUY >10%

HOLD -5% to 10%

REDUCE >-5%

Date Reco CMP TP

08-Jun-19 BUY 1830 2020

06-May-19 BUY 1690 1890

11-Mar-19 BUY 1715 2000

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Rating History

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Steady Performance Despite Tough Market Condition

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