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Transcript of STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics OECD’s Trade Indicators Project (TIP)...
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD’s OECD’s Trade IndicatorsTrade IndicatorsProject (TIP)Project (TIP)
Methodological improvements and extended coverage
AgendaAgendaItem 10bItem 10bAgendaAgendaItem 10bItem 10b
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
IntroductionIntroduction
• After the recent technical improvements, OECD’s multidimensional Trade Indicators database has gained more and more popularity amongst users searching for more analytical statistics, in particular within the context of globalisation analysis.
• Methodological consistency for calculating indicatorsMethodological consistency for calculating indicators, as well as the innovative interactive Web-based query toolinteractive Web-based query tool, presented at the last ITS Expert Meeting in September 2006, can be considered as strong points of TIP.
• Since the last meeting, TIP has been further evolving: new indicators were added and new features, the radar charts, complete the already popular country profiles. The TIP is by now not only a well-established and popular statistical product, but also a unique working tool of OECD’s Statistics Directorate.
3
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
IntroductionIntroduction
• The TIP database consists of several sub-datasets which have been merged under the header of Trade Indicators. While the “Macro Trade Indicators” cover a broader and more general view showing economic basis indicators typically without a sectoral breakdown, the “Micro Trade Indicators” allow an analysis at detailed commodity and activity level in different classifications. The last addition to the Micro Trade Indicators consisted in a breakdown by ICT Groupsby ICT Groups.
• The Internet site of the Trade Indicators has been improved and updated; a user-friendly URL has been created. Links to the diverse TIP datasets within OECD.STAT can be found on the site, as well as the country profiles for download. The TIP dataset has been moved towards the ‘globalisation theme’ (OECD.STAT).
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
• The denominator of several indicators has been changed from OECD total to world total to take into account the increasing importance of countries outside OECD. This concerns especially the RCA and export performance indicators. However, this was not possible for all indicators due to missing world totals or missing coherent world totals in some cases. The metadata within OECD.STAT have been adjusted accordingly.
• To get a more pertinent picture of the development of individual OECD member countries in relation to the OECD average (or in relation to another OECD member country), a new interactive graphic modulenew interactive graphic module, based on radar charts, has been provided and been made available for download on the TIP website.
IntroductionIntroduction
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Micro Trade
Indicatorsby SITCSITC
Micro Trade
Indicatorsby HSHS
Micro Trade
Indicatorsby ISICISIC
EBOPS(2
05-2
91)
IND1: Revealed
comparative advantage
Time (1988-2004)
Co
un
try
(3
0) EBO
PS(205
-291
)
IND2: OECD market
share
Time (1988-2004)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
Micro Trade
Indicatorsby EBOPSEBOPS
SITC2
(00-
97)
IND1: Revealed
comparative advantage
Time (1961-2005)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND2: WorldWorld market
share
Time (1961-2005)SITC2
(00-
97)
SITC2
(00-
97)
IND3: Trade balance
(goods)
Time (1961-2005)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND4: Export
performance
Time (1961-2005)SITC2
(00-
97)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
HS2 (0
0-99
)
IND1: Revealed
comparative advantage
Time (1988-2005)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND2: WorldWorld market
share
Time (1988-2005)HS2 (0
0-99
)
HS2 (0
0-99
)
IND3: Trade balance
(goods)
Time (1988-2005)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND4: Export
performance
Time (1988-2005)HS2 (0
0-99
)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
newnew
newnew
ISIC
(01-
98)
IND1: Revealed
comparative advantage
Time (1988-2004)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND2: OECD OECD market
share
Time (1988-2004)ISIC
(01-
98)
ISIC
(01-
98)
IND3: Trade balance
(goods)
Time (1961-2004)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND4: Export
performance
Time (1961-2004)ISIC
(01-
98)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND5: Herf. Index
(geo concentr.)
Time (1961-2005)SITC2
(00-
97)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND5: Herf. Index
(geo concentr.)
Time (1988-2005)HS2 (0
0-99
)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
newnew
newnew
IND5: Herf. Index
(geo concentr.)
Time (1961-2004)ISIC
(01-
98)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
newnew
ICTG
roup (I
-V)
IND1: Revealed
comparative advantage
Time (1996-2005)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND2: World World market
share
Time (1996-2005)ICTG
roup (I
-V)
ICTG
roup (I
-V)
IND3: Trade balance
(goods)
Time (1996-2005)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
IND4: Export
performance
Time (1996-2005)ICTG
roup (I
-V)
IND5: Herf. Index
(geo concentr.)
Time (1961-2005)ICTG
roup (I
-V)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
Co
un
try
(3
0)
soonsoonnewnewnewnew newnewnewnew newnewMicro Trade
Indicatorsby ICT GroupICT Group
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in September 2006Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in September 2006
a)a) Micro Trade Indicators by ICT GroupsMicro Trade Indicators by ICT Groups
• Information and communication technologies (ICT) have been at the heart of economic changes for more than a decade. ICT-producing sectors play an important role, notably by contributing to rapid technological progress and productivity growth. ICT sector contributions are significant and generally growing throughout OECD and also outside. In recognition of the also growing trade of ICT goods amongst countries, the Secretariat has taken the necessary steps to consistently add them to the battery of trade indicators.
• The recent analytical extension by ICT groups of the ICTS database allowed setting-up the new TIP dataset ‘Micro Trade Indicators by ICT Group’.
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsProgress made since the 7h ITS meeting in September 2006Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in September 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7F
inla
nd
Hu
ng
ary
Ko
rea
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Me
xico
Hu
ng
ary
Tu
rke
y
Ire
lan
d
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ko
rea
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Jap
an
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
I: Telecomequipment
II: Electroniccomponents
III: Audio andvideo equipment
IV: Computerequipment
V: Other ITCgoods
1996
2004
Degree of export specialisation (RCA) by ICT Groups
x 47x 47x 47x 47
x 3x 3x 3x 3x 4x 4x 4x 4
8
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in September 2006September 2006
b)b) From OECD perspective to world perspectiveFrom OECD perspective to world perspective
• For the Micro Trade Indicators by SITC, HS and ICT Groups, the indicators ‘Market
share’, ‘RCA’ and ‘export performance’ have been recalculated and refer to world world
totalstotals now (instead of OECD totals, as before). This improves the significance of the
respective indicators because the OECD share in the world total has decreased. Total
merchandise trade, comprising both OECD and non-OECD aggregates and countries
world-wide, is now the perspective.
c) New concentration indicator on micro level: Herfindahlc) New concentration indicator on micro level: Herfindahl
• A new indicator (within the micro trade indicators), the Herfindahl indexHerfindahl index, has been
added to measure the geographic concentrationgeographic concentration of the merchandise exports. This
indicator has been calculated for the SITC-, HS- and ISIC-classifications and will be
added for the ICT-Groups soon.
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Mexico
Canada
New Zealand
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Hungary
Austria
Iceland
Portugal
Japan
Luxembourg
Poland
Belgium
Spain
Switzerland
United States
Australia
Ireland
Korea
Netherlands
Denmark
France
United Kingdom
Finland
Germany
Greece
Italy
Norway
Sweden
Turkey 1998 2005
Herfindahl Index (geographic concentration) for SITC 7: Machinery and transport equipment (exports)
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Mexico‘s and Canada‘s exportsare most-concentrated in termsof partner countries for this SITCchapter
Sweden and Turkey have the lowest geographicalConcentration for exports of SITC 7
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in Progress made since the 7h ITS meeting in September 2006September 2006
d) New ways of interactive graphic presentationd) New ways of interactive graphic presentation
• An additional graphical approach, in the form of interactive radar chartsinteractive radar charts, has been
made available for download on the Trade Indicators website. This chart (in xls-format)
allows comparing the situation of one selected OECD country (for a selection of trade
indicators, both macro and micro indicators) to the OECD average or another OECD
country. In other words, the radar chart uses indexes of the indicators to enable a more
distinctive look at where a country stands within the OECD.
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Radar chat: access via www.oecd.org/std/its/tradeindicators
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Directions for further researchDirections for further research
• The TIP has reached maturity. Future work and related improvements fall into two
categories: first, technical, IT-driven developments which permit a better understanding
of complex patterns and more immediate access to the key messages of underlying
information. The second category concerns substance, that is new or better indicators.
Both categories are important.
• The development and extension of advanced visualisation optionsadvanced visualisation options is still one of the
key aspects for further work under the first category of the trade indicators. A good
graphic presentation is an important element for international indicators. Though there
are already country profile chartscountry profile charts and interactive radar chartsinteractive radar charts available now, these
options do not yet represent the best solution in terms of graphics interface. Further
developments in this domain will very probably depend on the future graphic software
product which will be chosen for the whole OECD and the level of IT support for TIP.
Investigations and feasibility studies are underway.
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
• Concerning substance, the inclusion of more and more trade in servicestrade in services data
(detailed data by products and partner countries) continues to be an important
development objective. Trade in services is already included in the macro trade
indicators, but needs to be further developed for the expansion of the micro trade
indicators for services.
• As could be shown, the current TIP indicators dataset is not a static one. The
indicators will remain a pro-active and flexible tool for economic and policy analysis.
Depending on resources and related maintenance costs more indicators should and
will be added (the so-called “trade plus” indicators).
• Following a corporate management decision at OECD, the TIP dataset has been
moved to the Globalisation Theme of OECD.Stat, the OECD data warehouse. This
was in recognition of its very nature, namely key trade indicators as part of the
broader globalisation process.
Directions for further researchDirections for further research [‘ctd][‘ctd]
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
• Amongst the avenues to be included for possible further extension (or separate
addition under “Globalisation”) are:
– Links of customs sources with enterprise structural statisticsLinks of customs sources with enterprise structural statistics, into trade indicators with
the objective to develop new databases where trading is matched to enterprise
characteristics, such as employment size classes, sector and partner country (see agenda
item 8).
– Trade statistics by type of ownershipownership of the enterprise, concentration of foreign trade by
enterprises, impact of international groups of enterprises on trade statistics, and the like.
Duplication with existing databases is to be avoided.
– New Trade Indicators to be added: the work on new trade and globalisation indicators will be
largely guided by the internal OECD Reflection Group on Globalisation StatisticsOECD Reflection Group on Globalisation Statistics. To
ensure consistency with other international bodies, OECD invites selected International
Organisations to be part of a Trade Indicators Development GroupTrade Indicators Development Group, convened by OECD.
– The role of re-imports and re-exports, inward and outward processing of goods in
international trading.
Directions for further researchDirections for further research [‘ctd][‘ctd]
16
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Going beyond traditional statistical standard classifications:Going beyond traditional statistical standard classifications:
ICT - Information and communication technologyICT - Information and communication technology
Delegates are invited to:
• Comment on the TIP developments shown.
• Provide guidance to the Secretariat as to which areas – as mentioned before - should be pursued as a priority and integrated into TIP. This would imply indicating negative priorities as well.
•Share similar national approaches, priorities and challenges with trade experts present.
•Indicate whether they could contribute to TIP in areas of relevance, but not covered at present, and would be ready to work with OECD.
Delegates are invited to:
• Comment on the TIP developments shown.
• Provide guidance to the Secretariat as to which areas – as mentioned before - should be pursued as a priority and integrated into TIP. This would imply indicating negative priorities as well.
•Share similar national approaches, priorities and challenges with trade experts present.
•Indicate whether they could contribute to TIP in areas of relevance, but not covered at present, and would be ready to work with OECD.