Status UpdateStatus Update

Ecosystem Technical Working GroupEcosystem Technical Working Group

Ecosystem Evaluation of Ecosystem Evaluation of Lake Superior Regulation Lake Superior Regulation

PlansPlans

Manage water level regimes to support diverse Manage water level regimes to support diverse biotic communities and natural ecosystem biotic communities and natural ecosystem functions in the Upper Great Lakes.functions in the Upper Great Lakes.

Rationale: Rationale: Biotic communities and the Great Lakes ecosystem have co-evolved Biotic communities and the Great Lakes ecosystem have co-evolved

and adapted to natural hydrologic regimes. By restoring natural water and adapted to natural hydrologic regimes. By restoring natural water level and hydrologic regimes, native species and natural ecosystem level and hydrologic regimes, native species and natural ecosystem functions will be enhanced and preserved.functions will be enhanced and preserved.

Draft Ecosystem Planning Draft Ecosystem Planning ObjectivesObjectives

Second Site Coordinators WorkshopSecond Site Coordinators Workshop

PurposePurpose

The Site Coordinators workshop is designed to explore how The Site Coordinators workshop is designed to explore how the different site research groups will work with the modelers the different site research groups will work with the modelers to develop site-specific PI metric/water level-flow attribute to develop site-specific PI metric/water level-flow attribute relationships that will be built into the IERM2 and SVM models. relationships that will be built into the IERM2 and SVM models.

At this workshop, each of the Site Coordinators is expected to At this workshop, each of the Site Coordinators is expected to

prepare and present their “best guess” of the conceptual and actual prepare and present their “best guess” of the conceptual and actual relationships between critical PI metrics and water level/flow regime relationships between critical PI metrics and water level/flow regime attributes for the sites that they are working on. They should be attributes for the sites that they are working on. They should be prepared to explain how they derived the relationships and be able prepared to explain how they derived the relationships and be able to describe any issues or problems that they encountered along the to describe any issues or problems that they encountered along the way.way.

Methods and results will be shared between groups and potential Methods and results will be shared between groups and potential solutions will be sought for common issues and problems. The Site solutions will be sought for common issues and problems. The Site Coordinators will work cooperatively with the modeling team to Coordinators will work cooperatively with the modeling team to validate the conceptual basis for the IERM2 and Shared Vision validate the conceptual basis for the IERM2 and Shared Vision models. models.

Second Site Coordinators WorkshopSecond Site Coordinators Workshop

GoalsGoals

1) Establish methods and protocols to further develop, test, and 1) Establish methods and protocols to further develop, test, and validate PI metric/water/flow attribute relationships for each of the validate PI metric/water/flow attribute relationships for each of the study sites.study sites.

2) Establish an evaluation framework that: a) links ecological 2) Establish an evaluation framework that: a) links ecological responses of individual sites to changes in water level/flow regime, responses of individual sites to changes in water level/flow regime, and b) assesses the nature of those responses with respect to and b) assesses the nature of those responses with respect to ecological thresholds.ecological thresholds.

3) Design and construct an initial conceptual IERM2 model based 3) Design and construct an initial conceptual IERM2 model based

on the PI metric/water-flow attribute relationships and the evaluation on the PI metric/water-flow attribute relationships and the evaluation framework developed at this workshop.framework developed at this workshop.

Second Site Coordinators WorkshopSecond Site Coordinators Workshop

ObjectivesObjectives

At the end of the workshop, we need to have At the end of the workshop, we need to have List of final site locations, including coordinates for inclusion into the List of final site locations, including coordinates for inclusion into the

IERM2 model; IERM2 model; List of critical site data gaps (e.g. base maps, bathymetry, aerial List of critical site data gaps (e.g. base maps, bathymetry, aerial

photography, satellite imagery, baseline characterization of PI metrics);photography, satellite imagery, baseline characterization of PI metrics); Plan to address those data gaps within the next two months; Plan to address those data gaps within the next two months; Draft set of PI metric/water level-flow attributes relationships in the form Draft set of PI metric/water level-flow attributes relationships in the form

of multiple water level-flow attribute response curves for each of the of multiple water level-flow attribute response curves for each of the final study sites;final study sites;

Data gaps and approach to filling gaps and refine the PI metric/water Data gaps and approach to filling gaps and refine the PI metric/water level-flow attribute relationships;level-flow attribute relationships;

Evaluation framework that links ecological responses to ecological Evaluation framework that links ecological responses to ecological thresholds; and thresholds; and

Workplan that specifies actions, deliverables, and a timeline for Workplan that specifies actions, deliverables, and a timeline for completion of the ETWG ecological assessment for the September completion of the ETWG ecological assessment for the September 2010 deadline, recognizing that further evolution of our models and 2010 deadline, recognizing that further evolution of our models and assessment will be built into the IUGLS adaptive management assessment will be built into the IUGLS adaptive management framework.framework.

Site Locations

ETWG ChallengesETWG Challenges Contract Issues Finally ResolvedContract Issues Finally Resolved Contextual NarrativeContextual Narrative February 24 – 25 WorkshopFebruary 24 – 25 Workshop

Identifying Appropriate Water Level SequencesIdentifying Appropriate Water Level Sequences Developing Water Level Regime Response CurvesDeveloping Water Level Regime Response Curves Commitment to Thresholds and TriggersCommitment to Thresholds and Triggers IERM2 ModelIERM2 Model Fill Data Gaps (Bathymetry, Imagery) Over Very Short Time Fill Data Gaps (Bathymetry, Imagery) Over Very Short Time

FrameFrame Prioritizing Activities to Maximize Efficiency/ ResultsPrioritizing Activities to Maximize Efficiency/ Results Managing Multiple Efforts/ProcessesManaging Multiple Efforts/Processes

Upper LakesUpper Lakes St. Marys RiverSt. Marys River Adaptive Management/Climate ChangeAdaptive Management/Climate Change

Other…Other…

Impact Score Biological Condition

1 Natural or native conditionNative structural, functional, and taxonomic integrity is preserved; ecosystem function is preserved within

range of natural variability

2 Minimal changes in structure of biotic community; minimal changes in ecosystem function

Virtually all native taxa are maintained with some changes in biomass and/or abundance; ecosystem functions are fully maintained within range of natural variability

3 Evident changes in structure of biotic community; minimal changes in ecosystem function

Some changes in structure due to loss of some rare native taxa; shifts in relative abundance of taxa but sensitive–ubiquitous taxa are common and abundant; ecosystem functions are fully maintained through redundant attributes of the system

4 Moderate changes in structure of biotic community; minimal changes ecosystem function

Moderate changes in structure due to replacement of some sensitive–ubiquitous taxa by more tolerant taxa, but reproducing populations of some sensitive taxa are maintained; overall balanced distribution of all expected major groups; ecosystem functions largely maintained through redundant attributes

5 Major changes in structure of biotic community; moderate changes in ecosystem function

Sensitive taxa are markedly diminished; conspicuously unbalanced distribution of major groups from that expected; organism condition shows signs of physiological stress; system function shows reduced complexity and redundancy; increased buildup or export of unused materials

6 Severe changes in structure of biotic community; major loss of ecosystem function

Extreme changes in structure; wholesale changes in taxonomic composition; extreme alterations from normal densities and distributions; organism conditioning is often poor; ecosystem functions are severely altered

Descriptive Framework of Biological ConditionDescriptive Framework of Biological Condition

PristinePristine

DegradedDegraded

CriticalCriticalThresholdThreshold

NaturalNaturalVariabilityVariability

Davies and Jackson (2006), Bain Davies and Jackson (2006), Bain (2007)(2007)