State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)• Residential electricity sales dropped by 2 4% from 2007 to...
Transcript of State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)• Residential electricity sales dropped by 2 4% from 2007 to...
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Indiana Energy StatusIndiana Energy Statuspresented topresented to
Indiana Chamber of CommerceConference on Energy ManagementConference on Energy Management
September 2, 2009
presented by
Doug GothamState Utility Forecasting Group
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
“It’s the economy, stupid”• Attributed to James Carville during the
1992 presidential election campaign1992 presidential election campaign
A li bl t I di ’ t• Applicable to Indiana’s current energy situation
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Indiana - an Industrial State• In 2007, Indiana accounted for 2.9% of
the nation’s retail electricity salesthe nation s retail electricity sales– 11th most in the U.S.
• But Indiana accounted for 4 9% of the• But Indiana accounted for 4.9% of the nation’s industrial sector retail electricity salessales– 4th most in the U.S.
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 R id ti l El t i it2007 Residential Electricity Sales (million MWh)Sa es ( o )
120
140
80
100
60
20
40
0
DC AK VT WY RI
HI
ND SD ME
DE
NH
MT
NM ID UT
NE
WV
NV CT
KS IA AR CO
MS
OR
MA
OK WI
MN KY MD LA SC NJ
AL AZ IN MI
WA
MO TN VA IL NY
OH PA NC
GA
CA FL TX
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 C i l El t i it2007 Commercial Electricity Sales (million MWh)Sa es ( o )
120
140
80
100
60
80
20
40
0
VT AK HI
RI
SD ME
WY
ND DE
NH
MT ID WV
NM NV
NE
DC UT
AR IA MS CT
KS OR
OK
KY CO SC MN AL LA WI
IN MA
WA TN AZ MD
MO MI
NJ
NC VA GA
PA OH IL NY FL TX CA
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 I d t i l El t i it2007 Industrial Electricity Sales (million MWh)Sa es ( o )
120
140
80
100
60
80
20
40
0
DC RI
AK VT SD NH DE
ME
ND HI
CT
MD
MT
NM
WY UT
NE ID MA
KS NJ
AZ CO
OR
NV
WV
OK
MS
AR MO VA IA FL NY
WA
MN WI
LA NC SC TN MI
GA AL KY IL PA IN CA
OH TX
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 T t l El t i it S l2007 Total Electricity Sales (million MWh)( o )
350
400
250
300
150
200
50
100
0
VT AK RI
HI
SD NH
ME
DE
ND
DC
MT
WY
NM ID UT
NE CT
WV
NV
KS IA AR MS
OR
CO
OK
MA
MD
MN WI
AZ LA NJ
SC MO
WA AL KY TN MI
IN VA NC
GA IL NY
PA OH FL CA TX
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Ch i El t i it S lChanges in Electricity Sales from 2007 to 2008o 00 o 008
• Investor owned utilities 3 0%• Investor-owned utilities -3.0%
• Not-for-profit utilities +1.8%
• All utilities -2.0%
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Was it the Economy?• Indiana Gross Domestic Product
dropped by 0 6% from 2007 to 2008dropped by 0.6% from 2007 to 2008• But 2008 was an exceptionally cool
summer which reduces electricitysummer, which reduces electricity demand
Cooling degree days in Indianapolis– Cooling degree days in Indianapolis dropped by 30% from 2007
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
F th I t O dFor the Investor-Owned Utilities:U es
• Residential electricity sales dropped by 2 4% from 2007 to 20082.4% from 2007 to 2008– More sensitive to weather than other
sectorssectors• Commercial and industrial sales
dropped by 3 3% from 2007 to 2008dropped by 3.3% from 2007 to 2008– More sensitive to economic factors than
the residential sectorthe residential sector
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
U S G D ti P d tU.S. Gross Domestic Product (trillions of 2005 dollars)( o s o 005 do a s)
13.4
13.5
13 1
13.2
13.3
12.9
13
13.1
12.7
12.8
12.62007 I 2007 II 2007 III 2007 IV 2008 I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2009 I 2009 II
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
This Year – Effects are More PronouncedPronounced
• Economic impact largely confined to last• Economic impact largely confined to last quarter of 2008E i i t ill b f lt ll 4• Economic impact will be felt across all 4 quarters of 2009
• The mild summer of 2008 has been repeated
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Indiana’s Reliance on Coal• Relatively low electric rates• Relatively high emissions of CO NO• Relatively high emissions of CO2, NOx,
and SO2
I di ’ ti fl t i i• Indiana’s generation fleet is aging
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
F l S f El t iFuel Sources for Electric Power in 2007o e 00
United Indiana• Indiana numbers do
t i l d t fUnited States
Indiana
Coal 49 % 94 %Nuclear 19 % 0 %
not include out-of-state generators that serve IndianaNuclear 19 % 0 %
Natural Gas 22 % 3 %Petroleum 1.6 % 0.1 %
serve Indiana customers– Cook (nuclear) in
Renewables 8.5 % 0.5 %( )
Michigan– Madison (natural gas) in
Ohio– Trimble County (coal) in
Kentucky
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
In 2007….• Indiana produced 3.1 % of the electricity
generated in the U Sgenerated in the U.S.• Indiana produced 6.1 % of the electricity
generated from coal in the U Sgenerated from coal in the U.S.• Indiana produced 0.4 % of the electricity
t d f t l i th U Sgenerated from natural gas in the U.S.
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 All S t El t i it2007 All Sector Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )
20
25
IN 6.50, rank #9
15
20
10
5
0
ID WY
WV
KY NE
WA UT
ND IN MO IA KS SD AR OR TN VA MT
SC OK
MN
NM AL CO
NC
GA
OH
MS LA IL WI
MI
AZ PA US
NV TX FL DE
MD
DC VT CA NJ RI
AK NH
ME
MA
NY CT HI
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 R id ti l El t i it2007 Residential Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )
20
25
IN 8.26, rank #14
15
20
10
5
0
ID WV
WA
ND KY NE
MO
WY TN SD UT
KS OR IN OK
AR VA MT
GA
NM
MN SC CO AL MS LA NC IA OH AZ IL MI
US WI
PA DC FL NV
MD TX DE RI
NJ
VT CA
NH AK MA
ME
NY CT HI
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 C i l El t i it2007 Commercial Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )
20
25
IN 7.29, rank #16
15
20
10
5
0
ID WV
WY
MO VA NE UT
WA
ND SD KY KS AR IA OR IN OK
NC
MN
CO
NM SC GA TN MT AZ IL OH AL WI
MI
MS LA PA US FL TX NV
DE
MD
DC AK VT RI
CA
ME NJ
NH
MA CT
NY HI
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 I d t i l El t i it2007 Industrial Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )
25
IN 4.89, rank #11
15
20
10
5
0
ID WV
WY
KY UT
WA IA
MO NE
SC IN OR VA SD KS MT
TN ND AR AL OK
NC
GA
NM
MN
MS
OH
CO AZ WI
US MI IL LA PA FL TX N
VN
Y VT DE
DC
MD CA NJ RI
NH AK CT
MA
ME HI
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 CO E i i2007 CO2 Emissions(million metric tons)( o e c o s)
250
300
200
250
100
150
50
0
VT DC ID RI
SD AK ME
NH DE HI
CT
OR
WA
NV
MT NJ
NE
MA
MS
AR MD
NM ND
MN UT
KS SC CO IA
WY
VA WI
OK
NY LA AZ TN CA
MO
NC MI
WV AL KY GA IL IN FL PA OH TX
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 NO i i2007 NOx emissions (thousand metric tons)( ousa d e c o s)
250
300
200
100
150
50
0
DC VT RI
ID NH CT
SD ME
DE
AK OR
WA
MA NJ HI
NV
NE
MT
AR SC MS
MD IA NY
NC VA KS NM ND
CO UT WI
WY
OK AZ MN LA CA TN MO MI IL AL G
AW
VKY PA IN FL O
H TX
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
2007 SO i i2007 SO2 emissions (thousand metric tons)( ousa d e c o s)
1,000
1,200
800
400
600
200
0
VT DC RI
AK CT ID NV
SD WA
OR
ME HI
CA
NM MT
UT
DE
NH NJ
MA AZ CO NE
MS
AR WY
MN
OK
KS LA NY
ND IA SC WI
VA TN MO
MD IL FL KY WV MI
NC AL TX IN GA
PA OH
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Emissions Trends for Indiana Electricity IndustryElectricity Industry
(normalized to 1990 values)1.4
1
1.2
0.6
0.8 Generation
CO2
SO2
NOX
0.2
0.4
NOX
01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Since 1990:• Electricity generated in Indiana has
increased by 29%increased by 29%• Carbon dioxide emissions have
increased by 24%increased by 24%• Sulfur dioxide emissions have
d d b 48%decreased by 48%• Nitrogen oxides emissions have
decreased by 60%
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
C l fi d G tiCoal-fired Generating Capacity by Decade InstalledCapac y by ecade s a ed
6000
7000# of units MW
3000
4000
5000
MW
1940s 1 451950s 20 18471960s 12 2275
1000
2000
3000M
1970s 17 69381980s 9 57361990s 2 289
0
940s
950s
960s
970s
980s
990s
1990s 2 289
1 1 1 1 1 1
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Coal Developments• Duke Energy integrated coal
gasification unit at Edwardsportgasification unit at Edwardsport• IMPA share of Prairie State (IL), Trimble
County (KY) and Thoroughbred (KY)County (KY), and Thoroughbred (KY)• Proposed syngas facility
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Natural Gas Developments• Hoosier Energy – Wabash Valley Power
purchase of Holland combined cyclepurchase of Holland combined cycle facility (IL)
• NIPSCO purchase of Sugar Creek• NIPSCO purchase of Sugar Creek combined cycle facility (IN)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Wind Developments• 530 MW of operational wind
– Benton County Wind Farm– Benton County Wind Farm– Fowler Ridge Wind Farm (phase 1)
• 506 MW of wind capacity under• 506 MW of wind capacity under construction
F l Rid Wi d F ( h 2)– Fowler Ridge Wind Farm (phase 2)– Meadow Lake Wind Farm (phase 1)– Hoosier Wind Project
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Wi d P h b I diWind Purchases by Indiana UtilitiesU es
• 263 MW in operation• 263 MW in operation
• 206 MW approved
• 251 MW pending
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Coal Spot Price (from EIA)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)
Natural Gas Futures ($/mmBtu)18
14
16
18
8
10
12
4
6
8
0
2
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Aug
11,
1
Aug
11,
1
Aug
11,
1
Aug
11,
1
Aug
11,
1
Aug
11,
1
Aug
11,
2
Aug
11,
2
Aug
11,
2
Aug
11,
2
Aug
11,
2
Aug
11,
2
Aug
11,
2
Aug
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Aug
11,
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Aug
11,
2