State Tax Revenue Performance over the Business Cycle• ‐1.153 (0.081) pp growth in state and...

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9/12/09 1 State Tax Revenue Performance over the Business Cycle Leslie McGranahan & Richard MaCoon This presentaEon expresses the views of the authors and does not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or of the Federal Reserve System. What do We Find? • State government revenue has grown far more sensiEve to economic condiEons during the past decade • This change is concentrated in the state income tax • Much of the change can be aCributed to changes in underlying income trends

Transcript of State Tax Revenue Performance over the Business Cycle• ‐1.153 (0.081) pp growth in state and...

Page 1: State Tax Revenue Performance over the Business Cycle• ‐1.153 (0.081) pp growth in state and local property tax revenues • 1.727 (1.339) pp growth in state and local sales tax

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StateTaxRevenuePerformanceovertheBusinessCycle

LeslieMcGranahan&

RichardMaCoon

ThispresentaEonexpressestheviewsoftheauthorsanddoesnotreflecttheviewsoftheFederalReserveBankofChicagooroftheFederalReserveSystem.

WhatdoWeFind?

•  StategovernmentrevenuehasgrownfarmoresensiEvetoeconomiccondiEonsduringthepastdecade

•  Thischangeisconcentratedinthestateincometax

•  MuchofthechangecanbeaCributedtochangesinunderlyingincometrends

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WhatDoesTaxRevenuePerformanceLookLikeOvertheBusinessCycle–

HasthisChanged?•  MoEvaEon–  2001Recessionasawatershedevent–amildbusinesscyclecontracEonledtoamajorcrisisinstategovernmentfinances.

– Why?Whatchanged?–  Whatdoesthisimplyforthemoresevererecessionthatweareexperiencing.

•  Data–  QuarterlySummaryofStateandLocalGovernmentTaxRevenue•  Collected(moreorless)conEnuouslysince1962•  ReleasedinaEmelyfashion(90daysaYerthequarterends)•  Quarterlyfrequencyabigplus

TotalQuarterlyStateTaxRevenues(Smoothed)

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PerCapitaStateTaxRevenues(Smoothed)

TaxRevenueasaFracEonofEconomicAcEvity

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TaxRevenueShares

RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons

•  WelookatthisquesEonintwoways•  Beginbylookingataggregaterevenues–revenuesforthenaEonasawhole– OneEmeseries

•  Wethenturntoanalysisusingdataoneachofthe50statesseparately– FiYyEmeseries

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RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:AggregateRevenues

•  DefinethebusinesscycleusingthecoincidentindexofreleasedbytheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia–  Nonfarmpayrollemployment–  Averagehoursworkedinmanufacturing–  Unemploymentrate– Wageandsalarydisbursements–  Trendforeachstate’sindexissettothetrendofitsGDP.

•  NaEonalCoincidentIndex•  SeparateindexforeachofthefiYystates

RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:AggregateRevenues

•  Pre‐19981ppChangeinCoincidentIndicator(i.e.jumpsfrom3%to4%)•  0.756ppgrowthintotalstateandlocalgovernmentrevenues•  1.095ppgrowthintotalstategovernmentrevenues•  0.276ppgrowthintotallocalgovernmentrevenues•  0.081ppgrowthinstateandlocalpropertytaxrevenues•  1.339ppgrowthinstateandlocalsalestaxrevenues•  0.834ppgrowthinstateandlocalindividualincometaxrevenues•  3.340ppgrowthinstateandlocalcorporateincometaxrevenues

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RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:AggregateRevenues

•  ThePre‐1998landscape–  Revenuesareprocyclicalonthestatelevelalthoughnotsomuchsoonthelocallevel.•  PropertytaxrevenuespreCyflat

–  Thismakessense

–  Corporateincometaxeshavethestrongestcyclicalresponsiveness(byalongshot)

–  SalestaxisslightlymoreresponsivethantheincometaxtobusinesscyclecondiEons(althoughusingstaEsEcaltests,wecannotrejectthattheyarethesame)

RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:AggregateRevenues

•  1998andaYer1ppChangeinCoincidentIndicator(i.e.jumpsfrom3%to4%)•  1.319(0.756)ppgrowthintotalstateandlocalgovernmentrevenues

•  2.327(1.095)ppgrowthintotalstategovernmentrevenues•  ‐0.502(0.276)ppgrowthintotallocalgovernmentrevenues•  ‐1.153(0.081)ppgrowthinstateandlocalpropertytaxrevenues•  1.727(1.339)ppgrowthinstateandlocalsalestaxrevenues•  4.361(0.834)ppgrowthinstateandlocalindividualincometaxrevenues

•  5.014(3.340)ppgrowthinstateandlocalcorporateincometaxrevenues

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RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:AggregateRevenues

•  1998andAYerLandscape– OverallstategovernmentrevenueshavegrownmorecyclicallysensiEve

– DuetomassiveincreaseinthesensiEvityoftheindividualincometax

– Localgovernmentslookmodestlycountercycical•  (Can’trejectindependentofthebusinesscycle)•  ThiscanlargelybeaCributedtotheconEnuinghousingboomduringthe2001recession

Somethoughts

•  IfwewanttounderstandtheincreasingsensiEvityofthestateandlocalsectortothebusinesscycle– Wewanttolookatstates– Wewanttolookatthepersonalincometax

•  Notsomuchalongtermswitchfromastablesource(sales)toavolaElesource(income)

•  InsteadachangewithintheincometaxwhererevenueshavebecomemoresensiEvetoeconomiccondiEons

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WhatabouttheFederalGovernment?

•  Pre‐19981ppChangeinCoincidentIndicator(i.e.jumpsfrom3%to4%) 1.387ppincreaseinpersonalincometaxreceipts

•  1998andaYer1ppChangeinCoincidentIndicator(i.e.jumpsfrom3%to4%)6.232ppincreaseinpersonalincometaxreceipts

RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:StateLevelData

•  Whydowewanttolookatstateleveldata?– MorevariaEontoexploit

– DifferencesinbusinesscycleEmingandintensity– Wecanlookatdifferentgroupsofstates

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RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:StateLevelData

•  DefinestatebusinesscyclecondiEonsusingthestatecoincidentindexdevelopedbytheFRBPhiladelphia–  Averagestatedown2.2%overayearago(2008:Q4vs2007:Q4)

•  Mean1980‐20082.9%St.Dev3.7%

•  Pre‐1998–  1ppChangeinCoincidentIndicator

•  0.707ppChangeinTotalPerCapitaRevenue•  0.810ppChangeinPerCapitaSalesTaxRevenue•  0.568ppChangeinPerCapitaIndividualIncomeTaxRevenue•  1.449ppChangeinPerCapitaCorporateIncomeTaxRevenue

•  1998andAYer–  1%ChangeinCoincidentIndicator

•  1.074ppChangeinTotalPerCapitaRevenue•  0.568ppChangeinPerCapitaSalesTaxRevenue•  2.004ppChangeinPerCapitaIncomeTaxRevenue•  3.249ppChangeinPerCapitaCorporateIncomeTaxRevenue

RevenueResponsivenesstoEconomicCondiEons:StateLevelData

•  Similarpicturetotheaggregatedata–  IncreaseinsensiEvityleadbylargechangeintheincometax•  Priorto1998,thesalesandincometaxeswerenotverydifferent.

– Differencebecausetheaggregatedatagivesmoreweighttobiggerstates(largerimpactonaggregates)whilewithstateleveldata,eachstateistreatedequally

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LookingatCaseofIllinois

RevenueVariability–IllinoisIncomeTax

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RevenueVariability–IllinoisSales

ExplanaEons

Whowe’retaxing

Whenwe’retaxingHowwe’retaxingWhatwe’retaxing

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WhoWe’reTaxing

–  IncreasingincomedispersioncombinedwithtaxprogressivitymayhavemadeusmorereliableonthemorevolaEletopendoftheincomedistribuEon.

– Testthisbydividingstatesintogroups– MoreProgressiveversuslessprogressivestates•  Stateswithlowestmarginaltaxrates<=6%in2008

–  0.623pppre1998to2.005pp1998andaYer•  Stateswithhighestmarginaltaxrates>6%in2008

–  0.511pppre1998to2.004pp1998andaYer•  Increaseissimilar,wesawthisforIllinoiswithlowrates

WhoWe’reTaxing

– Stateswithhighincomeinequalityversusstateswithlowinequality •  Stateswithlowerginicoefficients(lowerinequality)

–  0.761pppre1998to1.744pp1998andaYer•  Stateswithhigherginicoefficients(higherinequality)

–  0.375pppre1998to2.249pp1998andaYer•  GrowthhasbeenmoredramaEcinstateswithgreaterincomeinequality

–  Increasehasalsobeenlargerinmorepopulousstates,stateswithhighermedianincome,andstateswithmoremillionairespercapita

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Whenweretaxing

•  Lookatincometaxrevenuegrowthduringthefourquartersofthecalendaryear–  Jan‐Mar 0.533to2.269– Apr‐Jun 0.672to3.595–  Jul‐Sep 0.395to0.991– Oct‐Dec 0.708to0.986–  BiggestjumpinApril‐JuneQuarter,followedbyJan‐MarchQuarter,smallincreaseinJuly‐SeptQuarter,noincreaseinOct‐Decquarter.

– Aprilsurprises

HowWe’reTaxing

•  HastherebeenachangeinthewaypolicyrespondstoeconomiccondiEons?

•  DidweusedtoincreaseincometaxrateswhenEmeswerebadtostabilizerevenues?

•  IthinkofthisastheFlorioEffect(aYerJamesFloriotheGov.ofNJ1990‐1994)

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ChallengingtoImplement

•  Welackgooddataonthelongtermeffectsofstateincometaxchangesfromaconsistentandcomprehensivesource

•  Plantolookatrevenuecyclicalityinthestateswheretheincometaxwaslargelyunchanged

CanWeLearnSomethingfromtheFederalExperience?

•  FederaltaxsensiEvityfrom1.387to6.232•  WeusetheCongressionalBudgetOffice’sEsEmatesoftheeffectsoftheBushtaxcuts(EGTRA2001andJGTRA2003)onpersonalincometaxrevenues.– GoodesEmates,6yearsout

•  AdjustedrevenuesimplyFederaltaxsensiEvityfrom1.387to4.501– Notaperfectcounterfactual

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WhatWe’reTaxing

– Whatwe’retaxing•  CapitalGainsbecameamoreimportantshareofAdjustedGrossIncome

•  Timingisright

– DerivethreemeasuresofstateincomebyyearbasedondatafromtheIRSStaEsEcsofIncome•  TotalAdjustedGrossIncomebyState

• WageandSalaryIncomebyState(alreadyincorporatedintothecoincidentindicators?)•  Capitalgains,interestanddividendincomebyState

ControllingforYearoverYearChangesinIncome

•  Withoutincomecontrols•  Pre‐19980.568ppChange•  1998andaYer2.004pp•  Increaseof1.436

•  Controllingforincome,constrainingeffectsofincometobethesameacrossthetwoperiods–  AGI

•  0.396to1.586(increaseof1.190)–  WagesandSalary

•  0.504to1.824(increaseof1.320)–  CapitalGains,InterestandDividends(with1yearlag)

•  0.552to1.401(increaseof0.849)–  Allincomesources

•  0.475to1.214(increaseof0.739)•  Thisisbeyondthestate’scontrol

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ControllingforIncome

•  Withoutincomecontrols•  Pre‐19980.568ppChange•  1998andaYer2.004pp•  Increaseof1.436

•  Controllingforincome,allowingtheeffectsofincomeonrevenuestodiffer(couldbeduetochangesinpolicy)–  AGI

•  0.453to1.603(increaseof1.150)–  WagesandSalaries

•  0.659to1.744(increaseof1.085)–  CapitalGains,InterestandDividends(with1yearlag)

•  0.554to1.195(increaseof0.641)–  Controllingforallthreetogether

•  0.598to0.867(increaseof0.269)

ControllingforIncome

•  AbouthalfoftheincreaseinthesensiEvityofincometaxrevenuetothebusinesscyclecanbeexplainedbythedynamicsofincome,parEcularlyinvestmentincome.

•  WealsofindthatstateshavegrownmoresensiEvetoincomedynamicsthisexplainsabout2/3oftheremaininggapinsensiEvity.– Maybeduetopolicy,changesinincomeamongspecificgroupsetc…

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GroupsofStates

•  Smallest– MSMDNHINOKNDHIIAKYMNDEMTWVID

•  Middle– MONCORILVTMESCNMPAARMIGAALMA

•  Biggest– NYCOKSNELAOHUTVACARIWITNAZCTNJ

2009andBeyond

•  Obviouslynotshapingupwell.– U.S.coincidentindex‐3.2%inQ2(YearoverYear)–  Puvngitthroughaggregatemodelpredictsincometaxrevenuesfor2009:Q2down22.5%overayearago

•  FederalIncomeTaxRevenuesarefalling–  FederalTaxrevenuesrelaEveto2008

•  Withholding‐7.1%(YTDJuly24)•  Refunds‐12.0%(YTDJuly24)

–  Excluding2008SEmuluspayments+20.1%•  FinalPayments‐30.2%(YTDJuly24)•  Combined(exsEmulus)‐20.5%

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CumulaEveFederalIndividualIncomeTaxRevenuesandRefunds,2008vs.2009

PolicyOpEons:AMenu•  Worktosmoothrevenuesmoreaggressively

–  RaisetaxratesduringbadEmes(historicstrategy)•  TheFederalGovernmentgivesandthestatestakeaway?

–  SelloffassetswhenEmesarebad(andperhapsbuyassetswhenEmesaregood?)•  Buyhighandselllow?•  Needbuyerstogetfinancingwhenthingsarebad(Midwayairport)

–  Changerevenuestructuretowardssomethingmorestableeitherwithinincometaxortodifferenttaxes•  DecreasingrelianceoncorporateincometaxmaypartlybeduetovolaElity•  CorporateincometaxissubstanEallymorevolaElethanindividual(about2.5x)

•  Worktosmoothexpendituresmoreaggressively(takingrevenuecyclicalityasgiven)–  Rainydayfunds.ThesemayneedtobelargerthanispoliEcallyfeasible.Huge

swings.(AppealstoneithersideofpoliEcalspectrum)•  IsthereamorecreaEvewaytodothis?Capitalgains/Businessincomedrivenfund?

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PolicyOpEonsaMenu

•  RunDeficits–  Maybethestatesshouldbemorelikethefederalgovernment

ratherthanvisaversa•  Acceptthatexpenditureswillneedtobeprocyclical

–  RunscountertotheautomaEcstabilizingrollofgovernment–  Makehaywhilethesunshines

•  Buyingthingswhentheyaremostexpensive.Helpingpeoplewhentheyleastneedit.

•  AsktheFederalGovernmentforhelpwhenEmesarebad–  2001recessionandnow.–  Takemoney/pushexpensesontolocaliEes

•  MoreofanopEonin2001thannow


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