State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian...

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State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School and Institute of International Business Stockholm School of Economics This presentation draws on joint work with Professor Örjan Sölvell and has benefited strongly from ideas that Professor Michael E. Porter has developed. The State of the Region-Report has been financed by VINNOVA. VINNOVA and the BALTIC DEVELOPMENT FORUM are the lead institutions in the project that this Report is part of. The full Report is available at www.bdforum.org Additional information on competitiveness research can be found at the website of the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, www.isc.hbs.edu

Transcript of State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian...

Page 1: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

State of the Region-Report 2004:

Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region

Christian H.M. Ketels, PhDInstitute for Strategy and Competitiveness

Harvard Business Schooland

Institute of International BusinessStockholm School of Economics

This presentation draws on joint work with Professor Örjan Sölvell and has benefited strongly from ideas that Professor Michael E. Porter has developed. The State of the Region-Report has been financed by VINNOVA. VINNOVA and the BALTIC DEVELOPMENT FORUM are the lead institutions in the project that this Report is part of. The full Report is available at www.bdforum.org

Additional information on competitiveness research can be found at the website of the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, www.isc.hbs.edu

Page 2: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

2 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

The Baltic Sea Region Entering a New Era

PastPast PresentPresent

• Ties in the region far below historical precedents

• Enthusiasm about freedom and opportunity in the East

• Main goal is political: integrate and secure

• West providing help to East; East providing new markets and access to low-wage labor

• Ties in the region far below historical precedents

• Enthusiasm about freedom and opportunity in the East

• Main goal is political: integrate and secure

• West providing help to East; East providing new markets and access to low-wage labor

• Many trade and organizational ties across the region

• Realism about benefits raises demands on cooperation

• Main goal is economic: raise prosperity across the region

• West and East operating with same objectives from different points of departure

• Many trade and organizational ties across the region

• Realism about benefits raises demands on cooperation

• Main goal is economic: raise prosperity across the region

• West and East operating with same objectives from different points of departure

Page 3: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

3 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Towards A New Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region

• How strong is the economic performance of the Baltic Sea Region?

• What is the profile of the economy in the Region?

• What are the strengths and weaknesses of the business environments across the Region?

• What are the implications for a sound regional strategy?

Page 4: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

4 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Profile of the Region

Nordic CountriesNordic Countries

• Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden

• 24 Mio. People (41% of the region)

• GDP of € 793bn (74%)

• Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden

• 24 Mio. People (41% of the region)

• GDP of € 793bn (74%)

Northern GermanyNorthern Germany

• Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Schleswig-Holstein

• 6.3 Mio. People (11%)• GDP of € 172bn (16%)

• Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Schleswig-Holstein

• 6.3 Mio. People (11%)• GDP of € 172bn (16%)

Northwest RussiaNorthwest Russia

• Northwestern Region• 16 Mio. People (27%)• GDP of € 46bn (4%)

• Northwestern Region• 16 Mio. People (27%)• GDP of € 46bn (4%)

Baltic StatesBaltic States

• Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

• 7.4 Mio. People (12%)• GDP of € 34bn (3%)

• Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

• 7.4 Mio. People (12%)• GDP of € 34bn (3%)

Northern PolandNorthern Poland

• Zachodnio-Pomorskie, Pomorskie, Warmins-ko-Mazurskie

• 5.4 Mio. People (9%)• GDP of € 24bn (2.5%)

• Zachodnio-Pomorskie, Pomorskie, Warmins-ko-Mazurskie

• 5.4 Mio. People (9%)• GDP of € 24bn (2.5%)

Source: EU (2004)

Western shore Eastern shore

Page 5: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

5 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Real GDP Development Over TimeBaltic Sea Region Countries, 1993 - 2003

70%

85%

100%

115%

130%

145%

160%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Poland

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Lithuania

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

Germany

Russia

EU 25

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2004), EIU (2004), authors’ calculations

Sorted by CAGR,1993 – 2003:

Real GDP, PPP-adjusted, 1993 = 100

Page 6: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

6 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Key ObservationsProfile of the Region

• Clear dominance of the Nordic countries in the overall Baltic Sea Region economy

– Countries on the eastern shore still account for only 10% of the regional economy

– In addition, Germany, Poland, and Russia all have their economic centers of gravity outside the Region

• Overall growth performance of economies in the Region suggests dominance of nation-specific over regional factors

– Among western shore countries, Nordic countries did in general better than Germany but even among them differences emerge

– Among the eastern shore countries, Poland and the Baltic countries followed different paths. Lithuania in particular stands out with its late bounce-back from the transition crisis

Page 7: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

7 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Measures of Competitiveness

ProductivityProductivity

Innovative CapacityInnovative CapacityInnovative CapacityInnovative Capacity

Competitiveness

ProsperityProsperityProsperityProsperity

Source: Michael E. Porter

Page 8: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

8 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

ProsperitySelected European Regions and Countries

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Estonia

Baltic Sea Region

Iberian Peninsula

Central Europe

British Isles

NorwayDenmark

Finland

Poland (North)

Russia (Northwest)

Lithuania

Latvia

SwedenGermany (North)

Real GDP per Capita 2003, PPP-adjusted, $-US (1999)

Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000-2003Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2004), authors’ calculations

Page 9: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

9 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Decomposing Prosperity

IncomeIncomeIncomeIncome

Labor Productivity

Labor Productivity

Labor Utilization

Labor Utilization

Domestic Purchasing

Power

Domestic Purchasing

Power

• Consumption taxes

• Local market competition

• Efficiency of local industries

ProsperityProsperityProsperityProsperity

• Skills

• Capital stock

• TFP

• Working hours

• Unemployment

• Participation rate

• Population age profile

Page 10: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

10 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Key FindingsPerformance Drivers

• Labor utilization - employees per capita and hours worked per employee are highest of all peer regions

– Gap to Iberian Peninsula and British Isles is, however, falling; it is slightly increasing versus Central Europe

• Labor productivity is on par with Central Europe and Iberian Peninsula, lagging the British Isles

– Baltic Sea Region is currently improving its position versus peer regions

• Domestic purchasing power of income is lowest of all peer regions

– Gap to Iberian Peninsula and British Isles is, however, falling; it is slightly increasing versus Central Europe

Advantages

Disadvantages

Page 11: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

11 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Economic PerformanceDecomposition by Baltic Sea Sub-region

Nordic countries

Germany PolandBaltic

countriesRussia

Labor Productivity ++ ++ - - - - - - - -

Employees per capita =0 - - + +

Hours worked per Employee

- - + + +

Domestic Purchasing

Power- - ++ +++ ++

Prosperity (% of Region)

154% 150% 53% 53% 37%

Note: +++ for >150% above Baltic Sea Region average, ++ for > 50%, + for > average, - for < average, - - for < 30%, - - - for < 50%Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2004), national statistics (2004), authors’ calculations

Page 12: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

12 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

0

50

100

150

200

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Note: Bubble size is relative to total U.S. patents filed in 2002; sub-national region shares by GDP share Source: USPTO (2004), author’s analysis.

U.S.Patents filed per Capita, 2003

Growth of U.S. Patents Filed per Capita, CAGR, 1998 - 2003

Innovation PerformancePatenting in the U.S.

Estonia

Central Europe

British Isles

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Russia (Northwest)Lithuania

Sweden

Iberian Peninsula

Baltic Sea Region

Germany (North)

Poland (North)

Page 13: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

13 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Innovation PerformanceTop Patenting Organizations

ERICSSON Sweden 1246

NOKIA Finland 809

NOVO NORDISK A/S Denmark 553

VALMET CORP. Finland 273

SANDVIK AKTIEBOLAG Sweden 236

AKTIEBOLAGET ASTRA Sweden 202

BEIERSDORF AG Germany 136

ASEA BROWN BOVERI AB Sweden 133

AB VOLVO Sweden 126

ERICSSON, INC. Sweden 99

TETRA LAVAL Sweden 96

DANFOSS A/S Denmark 95

SIEMENS ELEMA AB Sweden 94

AKTIEBOLAGET ELECTROLUX Sweden 90

DRAGERWERK AG Germany 83

PACESETTER AB Sweden 81

PHARMACIA & UPJOHN AB Sweden 75

KVAERNER PULPING AKTIEBOLAG Sweden 74

HALDOR TOPSOE A/S Denmark 71

U.S. Patents, 1997-2001Company Country

Source: USPTO (2004), author’s analysis.

Page 14: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

14 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Other Economic Indicators World Export Market Share over Time

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Central Europe

British Isles

Iberian Peninsula

Baltic Sea Region

Source: WTO (2004), author’s analysis.

World Export Market Share

Page 15: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

15 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Other Economic Indicators Relative Export Intensity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Share of World Exports versus Share of World GDP, 2001

Source: WTO (2004), EIU (2004), author’s analysis.

Page 16: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

16 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Note: Bubble size is relative to FDI stock in 2001; subnational regions by their share of national GDP Source: UNCTAD (2004), author’s analysis.

Inward FDI stock as % of GDP, Average

1999-2001

Inward FDI Flows as % of Domestic Capital Formation, Average 1999-2001

Other Economic Indicators Inward FDI Position

EstoniaBritish Isles

Norway

Denmark

FinlandPoland (North)

Russia (Northwest)

Lithuania

Latvia

Sweden

Baltic Sea Region

Iberian Peninsula

Germany (North)

Central Europe

Page 17: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

17 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Other Economic Indicators Multinational Companies’ Home Base

Business Week 1000Business Week 1000 Fortune Global 500Fortune Global 500

British Isles 77

Baltic Sea Region 30• Sweden 15• Finland 5• Norway 5• Denmark 4• Northern Germany 1

Iberian Peninsula 13

Central Europe 11

British Isles 77

Baltic Sea Region 30• Sweden 15• Finland 5• Norway 5• Denmark 4• Northern Germany 1

Iberian Peninsula 13

Central Europe 11

British Isles 36

Baltic Sea Region 15• Sweden 6• Finland 4• Denmark 2• Norway 2• Northern Germany 1

Iberian Peninsula 7

Central Europe 7

British Isles 36

Baltic Sea Region 15• Sweden 6• Finland 4• Denmark 2• Norway 2• Northern Germany 1

Iberian Peninsula 7

Central Europe 7

Note: Business Week ranks by Market Value, Fortune by Revenues Source: Business Week (2004), Fortune (2004), author’s analysis.

Page 18: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

18 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

The Composition of Economies

Local industries

• Do not compete across regions

• Tied to location

• Dominated by services

• More critical for prosperity than for income

68% of employment

57% of income

31% of employment

42% of income

Cluster

• Compete across regions/countries

• Can locate anywhere

• Strong role of manufacturing

• Critical for income

Source: Michael E. Porter, Economic Performance of Regions, Regional Science (2004), Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School

Natural-resource based industries

• 1% of income and __employment

Page 19: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

19 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

*Growth figures exclude Baltic States and Northwest Russia Source: WTO (2004), Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, author’s analysis.

World Market Share, 2000

Absolute Growth* of Exports, 1995 - 2000

Cluster CompositionBaltic Sea Region Export Performance by Cluster

EntertainmentTransportation

Food & Beverages

Forest Products

Health CareMultiple Business

Materials & Metals

Petroleum/Chemicals

Power

Semiconductors

Telecommunication

Textiles & ApparelOffice

Household

Personal

BSR overall: +2.1% (versus +5.3% world trade)

BSR overall: 5.36%

Page 20: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

20 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

NordicNordic

Telecom

Forest Products

Health Care

Oil/Chemicals

Food Products

Defense

Power

Household

Metals

Multiple Bus.

Entertainment

Office

Semiconductor

Transportation

Textiles

Personal

Telecom

Forest Products

Health Care

Oil/Chemicals

Food Products

Defense

Power

Household

Metals

Multiple Bus.

Entertainment

Office

Semiconductor

Transportation

Textiles

Personal

GermanyGermany

Semiconductor

Transportation

Office

Personal

Multiple Bus.

Textiles

Entertainment

Power

Health Care

Household

Metals

Food Products

Oil/Chemicals

Forest Products

Telecom

Defense

Semiconductor

Transportation

Office

Personal

Multiple Bus.

Textiles

Entertainment

Power

Health Care

Household

Metals

Food Products

Oil/Chemicals

Forest Products

Telecom

Defense

RussiaRussia

Defense

Oil/Chemicals

Metals

Multiple Bus.

Forest Products

Personal

Food Products

Power

Textiles

Transportation

Entertainment

Semiconductor

Household

Office

Health Care

Telecom

Defense

Oil/Chemicals

Metals

Multiple Bus.

Forest Products

Personal

Food Products

Power

Textiles

Transportation

Entertainment

Semiconductor

Household

Office

Health Care

Telecom

BalticBaltic

Textiles

Forest Products

Household

Food Products

Entertainment

Telecom

Metals

Personal

Power

Oil/Chemicals

Office

Transportation

Health Care

Semiconductor

Multiple Bus.

Defense

Textiles

Forest Products

Household

Food Products

Entertainment

Telecom

Metals

Personal

Power

Oil/Chemicals

Office

Transportation

Health Care

Semiconductor

Multiple Bus.

Defense

Relative Cluster SpecializationBaltic Sea Sub-Regions

PolandPoland

Textiles

Entertainment

Personal

Household

Metals

Transportation

Power

Defense

Food Products

Forest Products

Multiple Bus.

Office

Semiconductor

Oil/Chemicals

Health Care

Telecom

Textiles

Entertainment

Personal

Household

Metals

Transportation

Power

Defense

Food Products

Forest Products

Multiple Bus.

Office

Semiconductor

Oil/Chemicals

Health Care

Telecom

Higher share

Lower Share

Source: WTO (2004), Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, HBS (2004), author’s analysis.

Page 21: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

21 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development

Quality of the Quality of the MicroeconomicMicroeconomic

BusinessBusinessEnvironmentEnvironment

Quality of the Quality of the MicroeconomicMicroeconomic

BusinessBusinessEnvironmentEnvironment

SophisticationSophisticationof Companyof Company

Operations andOperations andStrategyStrategy

SophisticationSophisticationof Companyof Company

Operations andOperations andStrategyStrategy

Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for DevelopmentContext for Development

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for DevelopmentContext for Development

• A sound macroeconomic, political, legal, and social context creates the potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient

• Competitiveness ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local companies and local competition

Source: Michael E. Porter

Page 22: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

22 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Business Competitiveness IndexRanking of European Regions and Countries

Baltic Sea RegionBaltic Sea Region British IslesBritish Isles Central EuropeCentral Europe Iberian PeninsulaIberian Peninsula

TOTAL RANK 6

Finland 1

Sweden 3

Denmark 4

Germany 5

Norway 22

Estonia 28

Latvia 29

Lithuania 40

Poland 46

Russian Federation 63

TOTAL RANK 6

Finland 1

Sweden 3

Denmark 4

Germany 5

Norway 22

Estonia 28

Latvia 29

Lithuania 40

Poland 46

Russian Federation 63

TOTAL RANK 9

United Kingdom 6

Ireland 21

TOTAL RANK 9

United Kingdom 6

Ireland 21

TOTAL RANK 21

Germany 5

Austria 17

Slovenia 30

Czech Republic 35

Hungary 38

Slovak Republic 42

Poland 46

TOTAL RANK 21

Germany 5

Austria 17

Slovenia 30

Czech Republic 35

Hungary 38

Slovak Republic 42

Poland 46

TOTAL RANK 27

Spain 25

Portugal 36

TOTAL RANK 27

Spain 25

Portugal 36

Source: Global Competitiveness Report (2003), author’s analysis.

Page 23: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

23 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Context for Context for Firm Firm

Strategy Strategy and Rivalryand Rivalry

Context for Context for Firm Firm

Strategy Strategy and Rivalryand Rivalry

Related and Supporting Industries

Related and Supporting Industries

FactorFactor(Input) (Input)

ConditionsConditions

FactorFactor(Input) (Input)

ConditionsConditions

Demand Demand ConditionsConditionsDemand Demand

ConditionsConditions

Business Environments’ in the Baltic Sea RegionKey Observations

+ Strong physical infrastructure, especially for communication

+ High skill base of the labor force+ Well developed science system+ Public servants apply laws with

neutrality; low level of corruption– Significant level of bureaucracy– Emerging weaknesses in the

education system+ Presence of a number of globally

competing cluster + Strong basis for the activation of

existing clusters

+ Companies competing globally on innovation and differentiation

+ High formal openness of markets– Low rivalry on many local markets– High level of taxation, especially on

labor, reduces incentives– Presence of distortive subsidies,

especially in Germany and Russia + Demanding regulatory standards, especially on environmental issues

– Buyer sophistication, including government procurement, is only average

Source: Global Competitiveness Report (2003), author’s analysis.

Page 24: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

24 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Lithuania

Factor Conditions Spending on Human Resources

Growth in Spending on Human Resources, CAGR 1995-2001

Baltic Sea Region

Estonia

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Poland (North)Latvia

Public expenditure on education

as % of GDP, 2001

Central Europe

Iberian Peninsula British Isles

Germany (North)

Sweden

Source: EU Structural Indicators (2004), author’s calculation

Page 25: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

25 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Factor ConditionsAverage of Reading, Scientific, and Mathematical Literacy

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

Average Educational Attainment, 2000

Source: OECD PISA-Study (2003), author’s calculation

OECD average

Page 26: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

26 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Context for Strategy and RivalryMarket Pressure

Baltic Sea RegionBaltic Sea Region NordicNordic GermanyGermany BalticBaltic PolandPoland RussiaRussia

Effectiveness of Anti-Trust Policy 10

Hidden Trade Barrier Liberalization 11

Foreign Ownership of Companies 12

Intensity of Local Competition 18

Tariff Liberalization 20

Administrative Burden for Start-Ups 22

Extent of Locally Based Competitors 23

Extent of Distortive Subsidies 29

Effectiveness of Anti-Trust Policy 10

Hidden Trade Barrier Liberalization 11

Foreign Ownership of Companies 12

Intensity of Local Competition 18

Tariff Liberalization 20

Administrative Burden for Start-Ups 22

Extent of Locally Based Competitors 23

Extent of Distortive Subsidies 29

11

10

16

22

24

21

37

17

11

10

16

22

24

21

37

17

5

13

11

13

15

34

4

93

5

13

11

13

15

34

4

93

43

41

52

39

38

34

46

26

43

41

52

39

38

34

46

26

45

52

47

51

45

52

46

78

45

52

47

51

45

52

46

78

73

79

93

83

76

84

48

70

73

79

93

83

76

84

48

70

• Nordic and Germany both formally open for competition but effective competitive pressure is significantly lower in Nordic countries

• High differences in competitive intensity among Baltic countries, Poland, and Russia

Source: Global Competitiveness Report (2003), author’s analysis.

Page 27: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

27 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Context for Strategy and Rivalry Taxes on Production

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Direct Taxes and Social Security Contributions as % of GDP, 2002

Source: Eurostat (2004), author’s analysis.

Social security contributionsDirect taxes (labor, capital)

Page 28: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

28 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Context for Strategy and RivalryFlexibility of Firing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Baltic

Sea R

egion

Denm

ark

Norway

Sweden

Lithu

ania

Poland

Latvi

a

Germ

any

Finlan

d

Russia

British

Isle

sUK

Irelan

d

Centra

l Eur

ope

Austri

a

Hunga

ry

Czech

Rep

ublic

Poland

Sloven

ia

Germ

any

Slovak

Rep

ublic

Iber

ian P

enisu

la

Spain

Portu

gal

Less flexible

More flexible

Source: World Bank (2004), author’s analysis.

Page 29: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

29 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

EU-14 + NorwayEU-14 + Norway

Overall Cluster Strength in EuropeGCR Ranking

2

4

5

7

8

9

10

14

15

17

18

21

25

41

51

2

4

5

7

8

9

10

14

15

17

18

21

25

41

51

Finland

Italy

Germany

Denmark

Sweden

United Kingdom

France

Austria

Netherlands

Spain

Ireland

Belgium

Norway

Portugal

Greece

Finland

Italy

Germany

Denmark

Sweden

United Kingdom

France

Austria

Netherlands

Spain

Ireland

Belgium

Norway

Portugal

Greece

Accession CountriesAccession Countries

31

32

33

34

40

44

45

53

68

31

32

33

34

40

44

45

53

68

Czech Republic

Lithuania

Latvia

Poland

Slovak Republic

Estonia

Slovenia

Hungary

Malta

Czech Republic

Lithuania

Latvia

Poland

Slovak Republic

Estonia

Slovenia

Hungary

Malta

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003/04 , Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness (2004)

Page 30: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

30 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Innovation Capacity

1

5

10

20

15

25

30

35

40

Rank on InnovationCapacity Index, 2003

Source: Michael E. Porter/Scott Stern (2003), author’s calculations

Page 31: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

31 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Germany Nordic countries Baltic countries Poland Russia

30

Rank on InnovationCapacity Sub-indices, 2003

1

10

20

40

50

60

70

80

Innovation Capacity Sub-Index by Country or Sub-Region

Source: Michael E. Porter/Scott Stern (2003), author’s calculations

Proportion of Scientists and Engineers Index

Innovation Policy Index

Cluster Innovation Environment Index

Innovation Linkages Index

Operations and Strategy Index

Page 32: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

32 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Source: EU Innovation Scoreboard 2003, author’s calculation

Annual Growth of Gross Domestic R&D Spending, average of three preceding years - 2001

Factor ConditionsTotal R&D Spending

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Gross Domestic R&D Expenditure as % of GDP, 2001 (or latest available)

British Isles

Nordic

Baltic StatesIberian Peninsula

Germany (North)

Central Europe

Poland (North)

Baltic Sea Region

Page 33: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

33 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Factor ConditionsShare of R&D Spending by Business

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Source: EU Innovation Scoreboard 2003, author’s calculation

Business Share of Total R&D Spending, 2001 (or latest available)

Page 34: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

34 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Influences on CompetitivenessMultiple Geographic Levels

Broad Economic AreasBroad Economic Areas

Groups of Neighboring Groups of Neighboring NationsNations

States, ProvincesStates, Provinces

Cities, Metropolitan Cities, Metropolitan AreasAreas

NationsNations

World EconomyWorld Economy

Source: Michael E. Porter

Page 35: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

35 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

Regional CooperationLevels

Stage 3: Joint action• Limited independence• Includes joint positioning of the region abroad, including in international/

supranational bodies

Stage 2: Coordinated action

• Medium level of independence• Includes joint efforts to upgrade border procedures, improve infrastructure,

develop clusters, ..

Stage 1: Learning and benchmarking

• Leaves national autonomy fully intact• Includes networks covering all areas of policy in an “open model of

cooperation”

Countries act in isolation

Countries act as one

Page 36: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

36 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

HighLow

Regional CooperationBenefits and Costs of Regional Heterogeneity

Degree of HeterogeneityDegree of Heterogeneity

• Easy to develop a common identity

• Easy applicability of others’ experience

• Balanced distribution of benefits

• Regional cooperation is easier but provides fewer benefits

• Huge potential gains from regional benchmarking

• Huge potential gains from division of labor

• Regional cooperation is harder but provides higher benefits

Page 37: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

37 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

SituationSituation Implications of the ReportImplications of the Report

Key Implications

Stage 3: Joint action

Stage 3: Joint action

Stage 2: Coordinated

action

Stage 2: Coordinated

action

Stage 1:Learning and benchmarking

Stage 1:Learning and benchmarking

• More ambition than reality

• More ambition than reality

• Some activities currently under way

• Some activities currently under way

• Many activities currently under way

• Many activities currently under way

• Current patterns of heterogeneity suggest high benefits but also difficulties in achieving joint action

• Current patterns of heterogeneity suggest high benefits but also difficulties in achieving joint action

• High level of regional integration signals room for development of strategic action plan

• High level of regional integration signals room for development of strategic action plan

• High remaining heterogeneity in the region signals ample room for further cooperation

• High remaining heterogeneity in the region signals ample room for further cooperation

Page 38: State of the Region-Report 2004: Competitiveness and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.

38 Copyright 2004 © Christian H. M. KetelsBaltic Sea Region Report – HH Conference 09-02-04 CK

The Way Ahead

BDF Meeting Hamburg 2004

• Launch of the 1st State of the Region-Report

• Set a structure for the regional debate• Provide data to review performance,

cluster composition, and business environment quality across the Region

BDF Meeting Stockholm 2005

• 2nd State of the Region-Report• Provide data to discuss the positioning of

the Baltic Sea Region• Provide data to set regional action

priorities • Provide data on current regional efforts

Ongoing discussions in the Region• Validate the performance and business

environment quality assessment• Identify areas for further in-depth analysis• Develop the foundations for an

institutional capacity to act

Moving to Action• Launch meetings to define a regional

strategy for action • Launch institutional structure to

coordinate decision making and implementation