State of the Data:State of the Data:

Migration, Fuel Costs,Migration, Fuel Costs, Community Viability Community Viability

Steve ColtSteve Colt

Institute of Social and Economic ResearchInstitute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska AnchorageUniversity of Alaska Anchorage

in partnership within partnership with

Alaska Native Policy CenterAlaska Native Policy CenterJoan Kane, Executive DirectorJoan Kane, Executive Director

Full report: Full report: www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Home/ResearchAreas/fuelcosts.html

Denali Commission Denali Commission 28 Feb 2008 28 Feb 2008 Juneau Juneau

Initial Research QuestionsInitial Research Questions

1.1. Has migration accelerated?Has migration accelerated?2.2. If so, who is moving, to where, and why?If so, who is moving, to where, and why?3.3. If so, are fuel costs a major driver?If so, are fuel costs a major driver?4.4. What other factors may be causing migration?What other factors may be causing migration?5.5. How are fuel costs affecting subsistence participation?How are fuel costs affecting subsistence participation?6.6. How are fuel costs affecting the viability of local How are fuel costs affecting the viability of local

governments, utilities, and local businesses?governments, utilities, and local businesses?7.7. Are there major factors – other than fuel costs – Are there major factors – other than fuel costs –

affecting community viability and migration, such as lack affecting community viability and migration, such as lack of employment?of employment?

8.8. Do regional patterns emerge? Can data be collected Do regional patterns emerge? Can data be collected and reported regionally?and reported regionally?

Topics for TodayTopics for Today

Migration flowsMigration flows

Reasons for migrationReasons for migration– Role of fuel costsRole of fuel costs– Other factorsOther factors

Opportunities for better data and better Opportunities for better data and better understandingunderstanding

...a research memorandum and digital - Web ...a research memorandum and digital - Web literature archive are also being prepared literature archive are also being prepared

SourcesSourcesMajor primary data sources:Major primary data sources:– U.S. CensusU.S. Census– DOLWD (population, migration), DHHS (births, deaths)DOLWD (population, migration), DHHS (births, deaths)– ISER Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA): ISER Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA):

2003; n=663 Natives; North Slope, Nana, Bering Straits 2003; n=663 Natives; North Slope, Nana, Bering Straits regions)regions)

– First Alaskans Institute Attitudinal SurveyFirst Alaskans Institute Attitudinal Survey (2007; n=902: 600 Natives + 302-non-Native; (2007; n=902: 600 Natives + 302-non-Native; statewide)statewide)

Literature: 40+ papers circa 1960-present, most of Literature: 40+ papers circa 1960-present, most of which use the same data sources which use the same data sources

SLiCA survey regionSLiCA survey region

Resource booms fueled statewide Resource booms fueled statewide growth and migrationgrowth and migration

GoldSalmon Pipeline

Oil moneyWW2 / Military

Pulses of migration shown in yellow

Salmon boom shows permanent population does not always follow economic boom

source: ISER, Census, DOL

Net Migration– Statewide 1980-2007Net Migration– Statewide 1980-2007

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

source: AK DOL (pfd)

Net Migration: Rural Census Areas Net Migration: Rural Census Areas 1980-2007 1980-2007

source: AK DOL (pfd)

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,0001

98

0

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

Adak Closed

?? - interpret with caution

Molly Hootch Coast Guard - Kodiak

Declining births may turn migration Declining births may turn migration into absolute population declineinto absolute population decline

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Adak Closed

Revenue sharing ends

Molly Hootch Coast Guard - Kodiak

Net migration – rural AK

Births – rural AK

source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mother’s place of residence

Wade-Hampton Census Area:Wade-Hampton Census Area:More people born than leavingMore people born than leaving

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Births

People leaving

source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mother’s place of residence

Overall, no long-term acceleration in Overall, no long-term acceleration in migrationmigration

However,However,

Rates vary dramatically across communitiesRates vary dramatically across communities

Smallest communities are losing populationSmallest communities are losing population– Of communities with 100 or fewer people in Of communities with 100 or fewer people in

2000, two-thirds have lost population. 2000, two-thirds have lost population. – This has been going on for a long time (eg This has been going on for a long time (eg

1800s to present) 1800s to present) (Alonso & Rust 1976)(Alonso & Rust 1976)

Cumulative net migration during Cumulative net migration during 2000-20072000-2007

% of 2000 pop., by census area% of 2000 pop., by census area

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Ya

kuta

t

Bri

sto

l Ba

y

No

rth

Slo

pe

Ale

utia

ns

We

st

La

ke &

Pe

n

Pri

nce

Wa

les

Yu

kon

Ko

yuku

k

Skg

wy-

Ho

on

ah

-An

g

De

na

li

Wra

ng

ell

Dill

ing

ha

m

Ke

tch

ika

n

Va

lde

z

Ko

dia

k

NW

AB

Wa

de

Ha

mp

Be

the

l

No

me

Sitk

a

Jun

ea

u

Ha

ine

s

Fa

irb

an

ks

An

cho

rag

e

Ale

utia

ns

Ea

st

Ke

na

i

SE

Fa

irb

an

ks

Ma

tsu

Age structure of 21 of Alaska’s Age structure of 21 of Alaska’s smallest communities, year 2000smallest communities, year 2000

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

0 to 9

10 to 19

20 to 29

30 to 39

40 to 49

50 to 59

60 to 69

70 to 79

80 and up

Age

Coh

orts

Percent of total population, 2000

Females

Males

source: US Census 2000

Alaska age structure - 2000Alaska age structure - 2000

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

0 to 9

10 to 19

20 to 29

30 to 39

40 to 49

50 to 59

60 to 69

70 to 79

80 and up

Age

Coh

orts

Percent of total population, 2000

Females

Males

Why are people moving?Why are people moving?

Fuel costsFuel costs

Other factorsOther factors

Primary energy consumption per Primary energy consumption per AlaskanAlaskan

barrels oil per person per yearbarrels oil per person per yearPrimary Energy Inputs per Alaskan

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Alaska GasNetwork

PCEplaces

Other

Bar

rels

of

Oil

per

Yea

r

Wood and allotherOther petroleum

Gasoline

Diesel

Hydro

Coal

Natural Gas

Effect of recent fuel Effect of recent fuel price run-up......price run-up......

Average person in a PCE community Average person in a PCE community uses 1,000 gal of diesel & gasolineuses 1,000 gal of diesel & gasoline

Average price increase = $2.00/galAverage price increase = $2.00/gal

Arithmetic:Arithmetic: $2,000 -- 8,000 increase per household $2,000 -- 8,000 increase per household per yearper year– (includes electricity, community buildings)(includes electricity, community buildings)

source: ISER/Colt “Energy Flow in Alaska 2005”

Why did you move?FAI survey open-ended:

Why did you move away Why did you move away from your rural from your rural community? What community? What motivated you to go live motivated you to go live somewhere else?somewhere else?

Alaska Alaska Native Native

responderespondentsnts

n=189n=189

Non-Non-nativesnatives

n=47n=47

Work-related reasonsWork-related reasons 58%58% 67%67%

FamilyFamily 22%22% 5%5%

Other opportunitiesOther opportunities 15%15% 17%17%

New experiencesNew experiences 12%12% 23%23%

Other needsOther needs 5%5% 5%5%

source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007)

What, if anything, What, if anything, would it take for you to would it take for you to move back to your move back to your rural community? rural community? What would prompt What would prompt you to go back to live you to go back to live there?there?

Alaska Alaska Native Native

respondentsrespondents

n=113n=113

Non-Non-nativesnatives

n=28n=28

Nothing / Don’t KnowNothing / Don’t Know 67%67% 76%76%

OpportunitiesOpportunities 19%19% 7%7%

FamilyFamily 4%4% 14%14%

Other needsOther needs 7%7% 4%4%

source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007)

What would it take for you to return? (open-ended)

Broadly speaking,Broadly speaking,

Neither FAI nor SLiCA respondents Neither FAI nor SLiCA respondents mention fuel costs in open-ended mention fuel costs in open-ended questionsquestions

Social factors / “Gorillas in the Room”Social factors / “Gorillas in the Room”– AlcoholAlcohol– Public safetyPublic safety– Domestic violenceDomestic violence

Example to ponder: North SlopeExample to ponder: North Slope

high wages, low fuel costs (subsidized), high wages, low fuel costs (subsidized), police officers, subsistence opportunitiespolice officers, subsistence opportunities– People still leavePeople still leave

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

Data Opportunities: secondary dataData Opportunities: secondary data

DOL migration data based on PFD zip DOL migration data based on PFD zip codescodes– continue net migration by census areacontinue net migration by census area– addadd net migration by age-sex net migration by age-sex– addadd origin-destination origin-destination– addadd net migration by community net migration by community

Opportunities: new primary dataOpportunities: new primary data

Panel study of ANCSA shareholdersPanel study of ANCSA shareholders– Sample frame existsSample frame exists– Attrition would be minimizedAttrition would be minimized– provides Alaska-specific data (subsistence, quality provides Alaska-specific data (subsistence, quality

of life...)of life...)

Person 1Person 1 Year 1 dataYear 1 data Year 5 dataYear 5 data Year 10 dataYear 10 data ........

Person 2Person 2 Year 1 dataYear 1 data Year 5 dataYear 5 data Year 10 dataYear 10 data ........

Person 3Person 3 Year 1 dataYear 1 data Year 5 dataYear 5 data Year 10 dataYear 10 data ........

: : etc. etc.

::

Primary DataPrimary Data

ANCSA shareholder survey does not pick ANCSA shareholder survey does not pick up young people; hence,up young people; hence,

Survey of rural college students,Survey of rural college students, rural high school students (tough), rural high school students (tough),or similar subgroupor similar subgroup– FAI did pilot survey at AFN youth conferenceFAI did pilot survey at AFN youth conference

Other opportunitiesOther opportunities

Comprehensive housing surveyComprehensive housing survey

Omnibus social surveyOmnibus social survey– characteristicscharacteristics– behaviorbehavior– expendituresexpenditures– attitudesattitudes

Thank You!Thank You!

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

www.firstalaskans.org