State of the Art of Project Management in 2010 Russell D. Archibald Fellow PMI and APM/IPMA, PhD...

State of the Art of Project Management in 2010

Russell D. ArchibaldFellow PMI and APM/IPMA, PhD (Hon), MSc, PMP

PMI Milwaukee/Southeast Wisconsin ChapterProfessional Development DayMilwaukee, WI October 19, 2005

October 19, 2005 PMI Milwakee/SE Wisconsin Chapter

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Where I’m Coming From 1959: in charge of PERT on POLARIS

solid rocket, Aerojet General PMI Member No. 6, APM (UK) No. 3 Clients in 14 countries on 4

continents; books in 6 languages Global perspective across a number

of PM application areas/industries


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Objective of My Presentation

To convey a comprehensive picture of the worldwide state of the art

in project management 5 years from now


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The World of Project Management: Six Players

1. Buyers (owners of projects)2. Sellers (contractors or developers of

projects)3. Consultants/trainers in PM 4. PM software developers and

vendors5. Universities6. Professional associations


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Six Areas of Prediction: 2010

1. Strategic Project Management2. Specialization by Project Category3. Total Project Life-Cycle

Management4. PM Systems, Tools and Practices 5. PM Discipline and Individuals6. The “Profession” of PM


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1. Strategic Project Management

2010: Best organizations will integrate

strategic management, project management, and operations management through project portfolio management


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Project Portfolio Management Portfolios link corporate strategy

with project management ‘Portfolio steering group’ holds

responsibility Must implement an integrated

project portfolio management process

Various types of project portfolios

StrategicObjective

1

OperationalStrategy 1.3



Project 1.1.3

Project 1.1.2

Project 1.1.1

Project 1.2.2

Project 1.2.1

Project 1.3.3

Project 1.3.2

Project 1.3.1

Program 1.1

Project Portfolio for Strategic Objective 1


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2. Specialization by Project Category

2010: Widespread use of systematic approach

to project categorization and classification

Improvements in Strategic PM Operational PM PM software PM consulting, education, and training


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Systematic Approach Analyze purposes and uses

of project categorization

Systematize and prioritize them

Relate them to project characteristics, attributes, and criteria: Categories


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The Purposes/Methods Matrix for Project Categorization/PC

One axis: Purposes and Uses of PC Second axis: Methods of

categorizing and classifying projects within the categories

Enter codes to indicate which methods serve which purpose

Methods >Purposes v

Market Share & Strat. Intent

Project End Result

Development or

Deployment

Other

1. Strategic

2. Operational

3. PM Education

4. PM People Development

Indicate usefulness with codesIndicate usefulness with codes

Project Categorization Purposes/Methods Matrix

Source: Archibald 2005, Lille, France


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Categories Based on End Results

1. Aerospace/Defense

2. Business & Organizational Change

3. Communication Systems

4. Events5. Facilities

6. Information Systems7. International

Development8. Media &

Entertainment9. Product/Service

Development10. Research & Dev.

Source: Archibald 2003, p 35-36


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Hierarchical and Multi-Dimensional

Category level1 2 3 4Major category

Sub-category 2Sub-category 3

Sub-category 4

Similar to P/WBS approach


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Example:Category 5. Facilities Projects

1. Facility decommissioning

2. Facility demolition

3. Facility maintenance & modification

4. Facility design/procure/construct1.Civil 2.Energy 3.Environmental 4.Industrial 5.Commercial 6.Residential 7.Ships 8.Other:

5. Other: ?


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Classifying Within Sub-Categories: Many possible Criteria Project size Major & minor projects Project complexity External or internal customer Degree of customer involvement Levels of risk, who takes responsibility Stand-alone versus create supporting

infrastructure Standard versus transitional Mega projects: not categorizable Other: ? (See Crawford, Hobbs and Turner, 2002

and 2004)

Simple Example: Category/Class Matrix

Classifying Projectswithin

Project Categories & Sub-Categories

Project Size: $M

Major Project: Yes

or No

Complex-ity:

1 to 10

Customer:

Internal or

External

Customer

Involvement: Hi or Low

Risk Level: 1 to 10

Category Level 2 Level 3

5. Physical Facilities

5.1 Decommissioning

5.2 Demolition

5.3 Maintenance & Modification

5.4 Design/proc/const

5.4.1 Civil

5.4.2 Energy

5.4.3 Environmental

5.4.4 Industrial

5.4.5 Commercial

5.4.6 Residential

5.4.7 Ships

5.4.8 Other

5.5 Other


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Project Categorization Enables Improvements in:

How project buyers and sellers: Strategically select and prioritize projects Operationally plan and execute their projects:

Individually Within programs, and Within project portfolios

Determine their true maturity in PM Educate and train their PM people Develop and manage PM career paths


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Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM Many PM Maturity Models

PMI’s OPM3 (For a critical review see http://www.pmforum.org/pmwt04/viewpoints04-910more.htm )

PRINCE2 in UK (http://www.prince2.org.uk/ ) Many others

Purposes of these models: Assess current capabilities Educate Improve

http://www.pmforum.org/pmwt04/viewpoints04-910more.htm

http://www.pmforum.org/pmwt04/viewpoints04-910more.htm

http://www.prince2.org.uk/


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UK Office of Gov’t Commerce-OGC: Prince2 plus others Visit www.ogc.gov.uk “Successful Delivery Toolkit” CD and

other valuable documents available free “OGC works with government to

improve procurement and project/programme management. We also work with suppliers to make the government marketplace more efficient and attractive to business.”

http://www.ogc.gov.uk/


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Japanese Approach Japan’s P2M (Project & Program

Management)

http://www.pmcc.or.jp/english/p2m.html

Integrated program management Jointly developed by industry and

government To date no related maturity model




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Maturity of Project Management Within a Category

Different perspective from total organizational PM maturity

Maturity must be viewed by project class or category

The most mature categories are: Aerospace/Defense Facilities


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PM Maturity by Project Categories

Research in Brazil: http://www.maturityresearch.com/

Applying the Prado/MMGP maturity model to project categories shown previously.

Brazil: 180 million people, strong high-technology industries, 17 PMI chapters

http://www.maturityresearch.com/


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PM Maturity Models2010

At least 2 major models in wide use: PMI’s OPM3, OGC/UK’s PMM

3rd major model will appear: Japan’s P2M

Translations of these will appear in 8 or 10 languages

Adaptations will emerge within specific areas of PM application and project categories


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Project Categorization Enables Improvements in:(Cont’d)

PM software applications

Consulting and training in PM services

University offerings in PM

PM Professional associations’ services


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3. Total Project Life-Cycle Management

2010: Best PM practitioners (project

buyers/owners) will include concept phase plus achievement of project benefits as part of the project manager responsibilities


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Total Project Life-Cycle Management Early years: Focus on planning &

executing phases 2010: Total life cycle management:

Including early conceptual & ‘after’ phases

Portfolio PM links corporate strategy with conceptual life-cycle phase

Include realization of project benefits as part of PM discipline


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Realizing Project Benefits Organizational change often required to

achieve full benefits from completing a specific project

“Business Change Manager” is sometimes appointed in 2005

Achieving project benefits will often be included in project life-cycle in 2010

Emphasizes importance of Project Sponsor role


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Example: Total Life-Cycle Management

New book coming out by Paul Dinsmore and Terry Cooke-Davies

"Right Projects Done Right" “Takes a broad holistic view of

projects -- from the project idea all the way through to generation of the benefits proposed by the project”


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Project Life-Cycle Models Predictive

Adaptive, repetitive: Agile PM

Different models for different project categories


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Project Life-Cycle Models Many life-cycle models are in use They portray a project as an overall

process or system Their purposes include:

To enable all to understand overall process To capture best experience, enable

improvement To relate roles, responsibilities, systems and

tools to all elements of the project


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Improving the PLCMS

1. Document the integrated project life-cycle model

2. Document & describe the PLCMS3. Re-engineer the integrated process

Apply systems thinking: TOC

4. Implement the improvements5. Repeat these steps as required


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Applying Systems Thinking to Project Management

2010 Catalogs will exist of life-cycle

models for each major project category

Wider application of systems thinking and TOC to project life-cycle models will produce continual improvements


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4. PM Systems, Tools and Practices

2010 Systems fully integrated with corporate

IS PM software more specialized to fit

project categories or types Web-enabled PM used by all; virtual

teams commonplace Wireless everywhere PM software vendors will begin

consolidation phase of a mature industry


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Project Management Software

2010 Little change in overall picture (see

next slide) Probably (?) some consolidation PM software a mature industry?

Software CategoryPMI PM Software Survey 1999

PMBOK® Guide Knowledge Areas

Suites (36) All

Process/Scope Management (19)

Integration Management

Schedule Management (43)

Time Management

Cost Management (27) Cost Management

Resource Management (27)

Human Resources Management

Risk Management and Assessment (15)

Risk Management

Communications Mgt (17) Subcategories: Graphics Add-ons (21) Timesheets (25) Web Publ/Organ’rs (15)

Communications Management


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One or More Corporate PM Systems?

2010 Best Practice: One integrated

corporate system Able to link different systems when

customer or partner demands other systems


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PM and Operations Management

2010 Best practice: Project and

Operations management will be integrated through corporate-wide Project/Operations Planning and Control System


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Integrated Operations Planning and Control

Source: Archibald 2003, p 197


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Critical Chain vs Critical Path Resource buffers quantified in CC Range estimates of duration in CC Some claim great benefits from CC Others say CPM can be used in

same way2010

Critical chain still not widely applied


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Russian Resource Critical Path/RPC Considers all constraints Calculates resource constrained

activity float (similar to CC buffers) Uses range estimates for duration

and resources Produces success probabilities for

risk management(Liberzon/Archibald 2003)


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5. PM Discipline and Individuals

2010 Certification will be

Based more on proven capabilities Sharply focused on specific areas of application

and/or project types Awarded at 3 or 4 levels

Demonstrated PM capabilities (not necessarily certification) will be a prerequisite for senior management positions

Governmental licensing in PM will not exist


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PM Certification Programs PMI: 2 levels: PMP & CAPM 119,978 PMPs on June 30, 2005 Heavily based on knowledge of PMBOK Critics say it is:

Not based enough on capability Not sufficiently application oriented Not certification of project managers per

se Only oriented to managing one project


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PMI Certification PMBOK now available in 8

languages Moving toward

Multi-project program and portfolio management

Application specific certification PMI College of Scheduling now

working on a potential Scheduling Certification Program


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IPMA Certification: 4 Levels A: Certificated Programme

Director/CPD B: Certificated Project Manager/CPM C: Registered Project Management

Professional/RPMP D: Project Management

Fachman/Fachfrau/PMF


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APM (UK) Certification Currently 3 levels:

Certified Project Manager (IPMA level B) Practitioner Qualification (IPMA level C) APMP (IPMA level D)

APM Group accredits trainers for OGChttp://www.apmgroup.co.uk/


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Other Certification Programs Australian Institute of PM/IAPM:

3 levels Based on National Competency Standards for

PM American Society for Advancement of

PM/asapm (http://www.asapm.org/ ): Developing 4 level IPMA certification program

NASA: 4 level internal certification http://www.appl.nasa.gov/businessunits/career/pmdp/index.html

Others:


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6. The ‘Profession’ of Project Management

2010 PM will merge into general

management, become required competency for top executives, similar to financial management competency

Many will still say it is a profession but no governmental licensing will exist

PM will be widely known and used by managers at all levels


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Chief Projects Officer/CPO

2010 Perhaps 20% of companies will have

a CPO Does for PM what the CFO does for

financial management Directs the Project Management

Office/PMO At corporate or operating division levels


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Licensing of People in PM True profession requires official

licensing No country, state or province

presently licenses project managers or specialists

PM is a management discipline, not a true profession


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The ‘Profession’ of PM Discussions continue around the

world: Management discipline or ‘profession’?

Experienced practitioners: “PM is a core competency for every

executive and professional” “PM is a sub set of general management;

little probability that it will become a ‘legally based profession’


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ReferencesArchibald, Russell D., “State of the Art of Project

Management: 2005,” PMI Milwaukee/Southeast Wisconsin Chapter Professional Development Day, Milwaukee, WI October 29, 2005 (download at http://www.pmi-milwaukee.org/ )

Ibid, “Purposed and Methods of Practical Project Categorization,” 5th International PM Workshop, Institut Supérieur de Gestion Industrielle, Groupe ESC Lille, France, 22-26 August 2005.

Ibid, “A Global System for Categorizing Projects,” 2nd Latin American Forum—PM in Government, Brasilia, Brazil, 21-22 September, 2004

Ibid, “Managing High-Technology Programs and Projects,” 2003. NY: Wiley

Liberzon, Vladimir, & Russell D. Archibald, “From Russia with Love”, PMI Congress, The Hague, 2003


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Thank you for listening!

Questions? Rebuttals? Arguments?

[email protected] references atwww.russarchibald.com

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