State of Oklahoma FY-2011 Revenue Certification March 31, 2010.

State of OklahomaState of OklahomaFY-2011 Revenue FY-2011 Revenue

CertificationCertification

March 31, 2010

ContentsContents

• Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook

• FY-2010 Projection ChangesFY-2010 Projection Changes

• FY-2011 Estimate ChangesFY-2011 Estimate Changes

• Budgetary ContextBudgetary Context

Forecast of United States Real GDP GrowthForecast of United States Real GDP Growth

FY-2009 FY-2011FY-2010

Source: Oklahoma State Econometric Model / Bureau of Economic Analysis Update 2/12/10

Comparison of United States vs. Oklahoma Comparison of United States vs. Oklahoma Employment GrowthEmployment Growth

FY-2009 FY-2011FY-2010

Source: Oklahoma State Econometric Model / U.S. Growth Update: Bureau of Labor Statistics

OK

U.S

U.S

OK

FY-2010 General Revenue Fund FY-2010 General Revenue Fund Projection (December) vs. Projection (December) vs.

Projection (February)Projection (February)

$ in $ in millionsmillions

• FY-2010 December Projection $4,415.0FY-2010 December Projection $4,415.0• FY-2010 February Projection $4,475.8FY-2010 February Projection $4,475.8

• $60.8 million or 1.4% above December$60.8 million or 1.4% above December

*For more detail, see Schedule 11, page 11.

Fiscal Year 2010 GR Projection (December) vs.Fiscal Year 2010 GR Projection (February)

FY-2010

December ($M)

FY-2010

February ($M)

Difference ($M)

Difference (%)

Gross Production – Gas $195.2 $273.5 $78.4 40.2%

Gross Production – Oil 87.7 113.8 26.1 29.8%

Individual Income Tax 1,652.6 1,647.2 (5.3) (0.3%)

Corporate Income Tax 172.4 153.6 (18.9) (10.9%)

Motor Vehicle Tax 124.9 142.2 17.3 13.9%

Sales Tax 1,512.0 1,477.7 (34.3) (2.3%)

Subtotal $3,744.8 $3,808.0 $63.2 1.7%

Other 670.2 667.8 (2.4) (1.4%)

Total $4,415.0 $4,475.8 $60.8 1.4%

*For more detail, see Schedule 11,page 11.

Fiscal Year 2010 GR Estimate (June) vs.Fiscal Year 2010 GR Projection (February)

FY-2010

June

($M)

FY-2010

February ($M)

Difference ($M)

Difference (%)

Gross Production – Gas $427.5 $273.5 ($153.9) (36.0%)


Individual Income Tax 2,044.1 1,647.2 (396.9) (19.4%)



Sales Tax 1,754.1 1,477.7 (276.4)

(15.8%)

Subtotal $4,674.4 $3,808.0 ($866.4) (18.5%)

Other 741.0 667.8 (73.2) (9.9%)

Total $5,415.4 $4,475.8 ($939.6) (17.4%)


FY-2011 GR Estimate (December) vs.FY-2011 GR Estimate (February)

FY-2011

December ($M)

FY-2011

February ($M)

Difference ($M)

Difference (%)

Gross Production – Gas $225.1 $320.1 $95.0 42.2%


Individual Income Tax 1,661.4 1,663.5 2.1 0.1%



Sales Tax 1,555.9 1,542.9 (13.0) (0.8%)

Subtotal $3,804.2 $3,926.6 $122.4 3.2%

Other 644.4 653.4 9.0 1.4%

Total $4,448.6 $4,580.0 $131.4 3.0%


ContentsContents

• Budgetary ContextBudgetary Context

Comparison of Authority 2010 Session (December) vs. Proposed Authority 2010 Session

2010 Session2010 Session

AuthorityAuthority

Dec. ($M)Dec. ($M)


AuthorityAuthority

Feb. ($M)Feb. ($M)

Difference Difference

($M)($M)

DifferenceDifference

(%)(%)

Certified $4,306.9 $4,431.6 $124.7 2.9%

1017 Fund 547.3 541.6 (5.7) (1.0%)

GP – Oil Education Funds 142.1 142.1 0.0 0.0%

Tobacco Fund 18.2 18.2 0.0 0.0%

Judicial Revolving Fund 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0%

Prior Certified 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0%

State Transportation Fund 210.7 211.6 0.9 0.5%

Bond Funds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash 31.5 31.9 0.4 1.3%

Total $5,294.9 $5,415.2 $120.3 2.3%

*For more detail, see Appendix A-2, pages 16 & 17. Totals may differ, due to rounding.

Comparison of Actual Expenditures 2009 Session vs. Proposed Authority 2010 Session

2009 Session 2009 Session

Actual Actual

($M)($M)


Authority Authority

($M)($M)

Difference Difference

($M)($M)

DifferenceDifference

(%)(%)

Certified $5,222.8 $4,431.6 ($791.2) (15.2%)

1017 Fund 633.6 541.6 (92.0) (14.5%)

GP – Oil Education Funds 99.6 142.1 42.5 42.7%

Tobacco Fund 24.2 18.2 (6.0) (24.8%)

Judicial Revolving Fund 34.0 38.0 4.0 11.8%

Prior Certified 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%

Transportation Fund 208.7 211.6 2.9 1.4%

Bond Fund 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Cash 393.6 31.9 (361.7) (91.9%)

Total $6,616.6 $5,415.2 ($1,201.4) (18.2%)

*For more detail, see Appendix A-1, pages 14 & 15. Totals may differ, due to rounding.

*FY-2011 data reflects February projections only.

• NCSL REPORTS SHOW THAT STATES CLOSED NCSL REPORTS SHOW THAT STATES CLOSED BUDGET GAPS IN EXCESS OF $145 BILLION INBUDGET GAPS IN EXCESS OF $145 BILLION IN

ORIGINAL FY-2010 BUDGETS ONLY FOR A NEW ORIGINAL FY-2010 BUDGETS ONLY FOR A NEW ROUND OF SHORTFALLS TO OPEN TOTALING ROUND OF SHORTFALLS TO OPEN TOTALING

$28.2 BILLION$28.2 BILLION 41 states reported new mid-year shortfalls in addition to 41 states reported new mid-year shortfalls in addition to

gaps originally closed by FY-2010 enacted budgets.gaps originally closed by FY-2010 enacted budgets.

14 states reported additional mid-year cuts of 7% or 14 states reported additional mid-year cuts of 7% or greater.greater.

Sources: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Article “Recession Continues Sources: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Article “Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets: State Responses Could Slow Recovery”, February to Batter State Budgets: State Responses Could Slow Recovery”, February 25, 2010 and the National Conference of State Legislatures25, 2010 and the National Conference of State Legislatures

STATEGAP

REPORTED ($)

% OF BUDGET

CUTS ENACTED OR PROPOSED

ARIZONA $1.9 Billion 19.7% 7.5% + Targeted

ARKANSAS $162 Million 3.6% 2.2%

COLORADO $601 Million 8.0% Targeted

KANSAS $459 Million 7.5% 3.3% + Targeted

MISSOURI $690 Million 7.7% 2.5% + Targeted

NEBRASKA $155 Million 4.4% 2.5% + Targeted

NEW MEXICO $650 Million 11.8% 10% + Targeted

TEXAS $3.3 Billion 7.6% Not Reporting

BUDGET AGREEMENTBUDGET AGREEMENT

FY-2011 Compared to FY-2010FY-2011 Compared to FY-2010If Budgeted at FY-2010 LevelsIf Budgeted at FY-2010 Levels

(In Billions) (In Billions)

State of Oklahoma FY-2011 Revenue Certification March 31, 2010.

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