State of Frac Sand - Energent
Transcript of State of Frac Sand - Energent
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6th Frac Sand Supply & Logistics Conference
Petroleum ConnectionSeptember 28, 2017
http://www.energentgroup.com@EnergentGroup
THE STATE OF FRAC SANDA DATA-DRIVEN VIEW
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1. Introduction
2. Macroeconomic
Outlook
3. Frac Sand Trends
4. Permian Forecast
5. Conclusions
Key Topics
2
01 Introduction
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ABOUT ENERGENT
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Provide market
intelligence services
Deliver daily shale data for
supply chain
Enable field and office to
access well-lifecycle details
• Rig forecasts
• HHP tracking
• Basin & market studies
• Benchmarking
• Permits, rigs, and wells
• Rig equipment
• Frac sand & fluids
• Oil & gas production
• Monitor operators & suppliers
• Review completion designs
• Integrate with your workflow
• Forecast wells, proppant, &
materials
DATARESEARCH SOFTWARE
CONFIDENTIAL
Unconventional market intelligence
for the O&G value chain
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ABOUT WESTWOOD GLOBAL ENERGY
4
Global
exploration
intelligence
focused on
industry
performance
and opportunity
analysis
Brands
Products
NW Europe
upstream oil
and gas market
intelligence,
analysis and
insight
Global
upstream deal
making and
opportunity
analysis for
business
development
Global oilfield
services (OFS)
market
intelligence with
online analysis
and
visualisation
tools
Track and
benchmark oil
& gas trends in
top US shale
plays—
research, apps,
& data updated
daily
Independent research and consulting for the global E&P industry
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UPCOMING NEW OFFERINGS
Basin Frac Sand Study
• Supply/demand forecasts
• Pricing outlook
• Logistics constraints
• Market opportunities
Energent Platform
• Weekly satellite imagery
• Mine & transload capacity
• Rig activity
• Production statistics
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1. Introduction
2. Macroeconomic
Outlook
3. Frac Sand Trends
4. Permian Forecast
5. Conclusions
Key Topics
6
02Macroeconomic
Outlook
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BETTER THAN 2016, BUT …
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• Oil prices stable for first 3 months
• Turbulent since and trending down
• US inventories have generally fallen
• 2017 average 17% higher than 2014
• Production cut extended but little effect on oil price
• $55/bbl ceiling?
Weekly Oil Prices
Source: EIA, Westwood Global Energy Group
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CONSENSUS WTI FORECAST
• Compiled from ~50 different views
• Latest oil forecasts adjusted downward
• Recent trading well below 2017 consensus
• Mean forecast reaches $61/bbl in 2020
• Low forecast reaches $58/bbl in 2022
• High forecast reaches $65/bbl in 2018
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Source: Westwood Global Energy Group
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1. Introduction
2. Macroeconomic
Outlook
3. Frac Sand Trends
4. Permian Forecast
5. Conclusions
Key Topics
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03Frac Sand
Trends
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KEY FRAC SAND DRIVERS
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• 62% y-o-y 17’Q1
• Expect growth in
final Q2 sand
volume
• Key drivers:
– Rig efficiency
– Larger pads
– Longer lateral
– Higher intensity
• Impact of DUCs
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SAND PER WELL DECLINING?
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Proppant Per Well By Basin
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PERMIAN – OPTIMIZED COMPLETIONS
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1) Black triangle denotes sand mine, black square transload
Transload & Regional Mine Supply
+31%
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LEAD TO OVERSUPPLY?
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Q1’18 will be key
with 6 local sand
mines entering
production
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SAMPLE OF Q1’18 MINES
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1) Three of the six mines that are estimated for Q1’18 production
• Privately owned by Preferred Sands of Monahans LLC and operated by Adelphi Construction.
• Contains 100% fine-mesh reserves.
• Located in Ector county within 100 miles from ~90% of Permian proppant demand, and East of Monahans, Texas, the facility is strategically located along highway 20, equidistance to both Midland and Delaware basins.
Premium Sand: 40/70, 100 mesh
Est.: Q1’18
Current Capacity: 0
Name: Monahans
• Nameplate capacity estimates are ~83MM tons over 25 years reserve life. Capacity estimated to be 3.3MM TPY.
• No apparent factors limiting capacity growth
• As of 1Q17, largest customers include Halliburton, Encana and Schlumberger.
• Situated on ~31,000 acres, the facility has access to highway 20 and the UP TOYAH rail line.
Focus Mine
• Privately owned and operated by Black Mountain Sand LLC.
• Secure source of in-basin 40/70 and 100 fine-mesh reserves.
• Located in Winkler county, Texas, Vest is equidistance to both Delaware and Midland basins and in close proximity to EL Dorado mine.
Premium Sand: 40/70, 100 mesh
Est.: Q1’18
Current Capacity: 0
Name: Vest Facility
• Projected capacity of 4MM TPY premium sand.
• No apparent factors limiting capacity growth.
• Multi-year supply contract with Diamondback Energy, Inc.
• Black Mountain’s ~30,000 acres contains abundant water supply, strategic road access, and is in compliance with the Texas Conservation Plan regarding the Dunes Sagebrush Lizard habitat.
Focus Mine
• Privately owned and operated by High Roller Sand Operating, LLC.
• Strong focus on 40/70 (52%) and 100 (44%) fine-mesh reserves in addition to other mesh sizes including 50/140, 70/140.
• Located 8 miles North of Kermit, Texas and in close proximity to FM 1218. Road access provides low traffic routes to Northern Delaware and Midland basins.
Premium Sand: 40/70,100 mesh
Est.: Q1’18
Current Capacity: 0
Name: Kermit Plant • Nameplate capacity estimates are ~325MM tons over 100 years
reserve life. Capacity estimated to be ~3MM TPY.
• No apparent factors limiting growth.
• Finished products are fully tested and compliant with API and ISO specifications.
• Facility’s ~5,098 acres contains abundant water supply, strategic road access, and is in compliance with the Texas Conservation Plan regarding the Dunes Sagebrush Lizard habitat
Focus Mine
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LARGER PADS, MORE STORAGE
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DUC VINTAGE IN THE DELAWARE
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1) DUC wells as of September 2017
2015 2016 2017
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MIDCON - LOCAL SAND?
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Transload & Regional Mine Supply
+43%
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E&PS TEST SCOOP/STACK DESIGNS
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• Industry moves
to ~4,500 tons
per well across
Mid-Con
• Devon ~40%
increase to
8,500 tons of
sand per well in
2017
• Followers are
years behind
Industry Proppant per Well in Mid-Con
Devon Proppant per Well in Mid-Con
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EAGLE FORD – CONTINUED GROWTH
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Transload & Regional Mine Supply
+21%
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E&PS ADOPT PROPPANT LOADING
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• Maturity of EF
• Marathon +22%
in 2017 vs 2016
• EOG +21% in
2017 to 7,800
tons per well
Industry Proppant per Well in Eagle Ford
Marathon Proppant per Well in Eagle Ford
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1. Introduction
2. Macroeconomic
Outlook
3. Frac Sand Trends
4. Permian Forecast
5. Conclusions
Key Topics
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04Permian
Forecast
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METHODOLOGY FOR PERMIAN
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1. Define Your Weights 3. Review Forecast2. Set Well Criteria
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15 M TONS OF FRAC SAND
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• Local mines within
100 miles of ~90% of
sand demand
• Concho, Pioneer, and
EOG require more
than 1 M tons each
• Top 10 operators will
need 8.4 M tons
• What strategy wins?
1) Source: Energent App – Market Potential
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1. Introduction
2. Macroeconomic
Outlook
3. Frac Sand Trends
4. Permian Forecast
5. Conclusions
Key Topics
24
05 Conclusions
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CLOSING THOUGHTS
• E&P capex. Expect spending to trend lower than announced capex plans with supply chain teams staying lean and flexible to respond to oil prices
• Uncompleted wells. DUCs will headline earning season as E&Ps wait to complete wells
• Pressure pumping. Smaller, regional frac companies are acquisition targets for new public pumpers –FRAC, FTSI, BDFC
• Regional mines. Additional announcements expected for regional mines to support Midland & Delaware Basin and Scoop/Stack demand
• Logistics. Joint ventures and partnerships in last mile and trucking will influence adoption of regional sand
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QUESTIONS?
Find Out More About Energent
http://www.energentgroup.com
Contact Todd Bush
281-846-4425
CONFIDENTIAL 26